2013 Denver Broncos: Replacing Dumervil's Production Part 2

In part 1 of this series, I looked to dispel myths and half truths that people are using when discussing this situation. In this part, I'm going to identify exactly what replacing Elvis Dumervil looks like on paper, and compare that production with the production of both Dwight Freeney and John Abraham--two possible FA replacements that have been tied to the Denver Broncos.

The data pooled and presented in my own tables came from Pro Football Focus with some added percentages by me. I am not going to present their advanced grades or anything like that here, just give you snap totals and other pertinent information. Again, credit for this data belongs to them.

Dumervil 2009-2012

Year	Snaps	Run	%	Rush	%	Cover	%	% of total Snaps
2012	1037	420	40.5	559	54.0	58	5.5	87.1
2011	986	414	41.9	562	56.9	10	1.2	86.3
2010	---	---	---	---	---	---	---	---
2009	880	386	43.9	419	47.6	75	8.5	83.7

*Note that all totals include playoff games

- For the last to years, Doom played about 87% of all defensive snaps. Of those, he was asked to rush the passer about 55.5% of the time. Back when he was playing 3-4 OLB in 2009, he covered a pretty decent percentage of the time 8.5%. We also see the difference between Del Rio and Allen in that Doom was almost never asked to cover under Allen and was asked to cover much more last season.

- As you will see he has played a ton of snaps and will play a many more rushing play snaps than the other two potential replacements.

Freeney 2009-2012

Year	Snaps	Run	%	Rush	%	Cover	%	% of total Snaps
2012	768	276	35.9	467	60.8	25	3.3	76.1
2011	697	262	37.6	435	62.4	0	0.0	62.3
2010	859	328	38.2	530	61.6	1	0.2	76.4
2009	710	237	33.4	470	66.2	3	0.4	60.0

- Pretty consistent snaps throughout, almost never asked to cover including last year as a 3-4 OLB.

- His split in pass rush to run support is more like 67-33 when compared with Doom's 55-45 split over the last couple of years (throwing out coverage snaps).

- Overall he's played about 65% of the overall snaps over that 4 year period compared to Doom's 85% of overall snaps.

Abraham 2009-2012

Year	Snaps	Run	%	Rush	%	Cover	%	% of total Snaps
2012	806	307	38.1	463	57.4	36	4.5	69.2
2011	690	241	34.9	394	57.1	55	8.0	67.7
2010	659	210	31.9	390	59.2	59	8.9	64.8
2009	703	244	34.7	421	59.9	38	4.4	66.4

- Abraham has played about 67% of all defensive snaps over a four year period. Slightly higher than Freeney, but still far short of Dumervil.

- His ratio looks like 57-36, he's played far too many snaps in coverage consistently to ignore that part of his game.

Now let's compare their results against the run:

Player	Run Snaps	Tackles	%
2012	---	---	---
Dumervil	336	28	8.3
Abraham	225	21	9.3
Freeney	227	9	3.9
2011	---	---	---
Dumervil	335	29	8.7
Abraham	199	19	9.5
Freeney	240	8	3.3
Totals	---	---	---
Dumervil	671	57	8.5
Abraham	424	40	9.4
Freeney	467	17	3.6

Again, Dumervil had many more snaps against the run over the course of the last two years. Percentage wise though, John Abraham exceeds his production. Freeney is nowhere close to either--it doesn't appear as if the position change affected his output here. Very similar numbers in both years.

Finally, here are their pass rushing numbers:

Player	Pass Snaps	P. Rush Snaps	P. Rush %	Sack	Sack %	Press	Total	%
2012	---	---	---	---	---	---	---	---
Dumervil	540	489	90.6	12	2.6	48	60	12.3
Abraham	453	417	92.1	10	2.3	46	56	13.4
Freeney	436	414	95.0	5	1.2	42	47	11.4
2011	---	---	---	---	---	---	---	---
Dumervil	469	464	98.9	12	2.9	35	47	10.1
Abraham	395	343	86.8	10	2.9	43	53	15.4
Freeney	412	412	100.0	8	1.9	41	49	11.9
Totals	---	---	---	---	---	---	---	---
Dumervil	1009	953	94.4	24	2.5	83	107	11.2
Abraham	848	760	89.6	20	2.6	89	109	14.3
Freeney	848	826	97.4	13	1.6	83	96	11.6

- Let's use 11.2 %, call it 11% as our benchmark since that is what we are losing with Dumervil. We want to see a pressure of some kind on 11% of the pass rushing snaps. Forget sack numbers for a minute here. Though sacks are shiny, sparkly numbers, a pressure affects the play whether a sack is registered or not, so instead lets look at the aggregate numbers (sacks+pressures). Abraham outperforms both. Freeney has a slightly higher percentage of pressures.

- When we examine sack % (think TD % or INT % for QB's) Dumervil and Abraham are dead even. Freeney lags behind here and it is a significant number.

- Freeney and Dumervil the last couple of years had the highest % of rushing the passer in passing situations. Abraham is lower and again it's due to how much he was put in coverage.

Conclusions

Production wise, Abraham would replace Dumervil's production better than Freeney. In fact he exceeds Dumervil on a percentage basis in all three facets of the game (pass rush, run support, coverage). He would also give the Broncos flexibility in nickel defense to rush three and drop back in coverage. As far as total snaps, both Freeney and Abraham fall short of Dumervil's contributions.

I would feel fine about Freeney in this defense even though his production in the pass rush department looks bad due to a lower sack number in 2012. Bottom line he still disrupted the play at a high percentage due to hits and hurries.

If we get Freeney, he's situational, which is also why the Broncos shouldn't (and won't) give him 6 million per year. If we get Abraham, he'll be on the field much more.

In Part 3, Big Pete is going to take a closer look at some possible in-house replacements.

GO BRONCOS!!!