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In part 1 of this series, I looked to dispel myths and half truths that people are using when discussing this situation. In this part, I'm going to identify exactly what replacing Elvis Dumervil looks like on paper, and compare that production with the production of both Dwight Freeney and John Abraham--two possible FA replacements that have been tied to the Denver Broncos.
The data pooled and presented in my own tables came from Pro Football Focus with some added percentages by me. I am not going to present their advanced grades or anything like that here, just give you snap totals and other pertinent information. Again, credit for this data belongs to them.
Dumervil 2009-2012
Year |
Snaps |
Run |
% |
Rush |
% |
Cover |
% |
% of total Snaps |
2012 |
1037 |
420 |
40.5 |
559 |
54.0 |
58 |
5.5 |
87.1 |
2011 |
986 |
414 |
41.9 |
562 |
56.9 |
10 |
1.2 |
86.3 |
2010 |
--- |
--- |
--- |
--- |
--- |
--- |
--- |
--- |
2009 |
880 |
386 |
43.9 |
419 |
47.6 |
75 |
8.5 |
83.7 |
*Note that all totals include playoff games
- For the last to years, Doom played about 87% of all defensive snaps. Of those, he was asked to rush the passer about 55.5% of the time. Back when he was playing 3-4 OLB in 2009, he covered a pretty decent percentage of the time 8.5%. We also see the difference between Del Rio and Allen in that Doom was almost never asked to cover under Allen and was asked to cover much more last season.
- As you will see he has played a ton of snaps and will play a many more rushing play snaps than the other two potential replacements.
Freeney 2009-2012
Year |
Snaps |
Run |
% |
Rush |
% |
Cover |
% |
% of total Snaps |
2012 |
768 |
276 |
35.9 |
467 |
60.8 |
25 |
3.3 |
76.1 |
2011 |
697 |
262 |
37.6 |
435 |
62.4 |
0 |
0.0 |
62.3 |
2010 |
859 |
328 |
38.2 |
530 |
61.6 |
1 |
0.2 |
76.4 |
2009 |
710 |
237 |
33.4 |
470 |
66.2 |
3 |
0.4 |
60.0 |
- Pretty consistent snaps throughout, almost never asked to cover including last year as a 3-4 OLB.
- His split in pass rush to run support is more like 67-33 when compared with Doom's 55-45 split over the last couple of years (throwing out coverage snaps).
- Overall he's played about 65% of the overall snaps over that 4 year period compared to Doom's 85% of overall snaps.
Abraham 2009-2012
Year |
Snaps |
Run |
% |
Rush |
% |
Cover |
% |
% of total Snaps |
2012 |
806 |
307 |
38.1 |
463 |
57.4 |
36 |
4.5 |
69.2 |
2011 |
690 |
241 |
34.9 |
394 |
57.1 |
55 |
8.0 |
67.7 |
2010 |
659 |
210 |
31.9 |
390 |
59.2 |
59 |
8.9 |
64.8 |
2009 |
703 |
244 |
34.7 |
421 |
59.9 |
38 |
4.4 |
66.4 |
- Abraham has played about 67% of all defensive snaps over a four year period. Slightly higher than Freeney, but still far short of Dumervil.
- His ratio looks like 57-36, he's played far too many snaps in coverage consistently to ignore that part of his game.
Now let's compare their results against the run:
Player |
Run Snaps |
Tackles |
% |
2012 |
--- |
--- |
--- |
Dumervil |
336 |
28 |
8.3 |
Abraham |
225 |
21 |
9.3 |
Freeney |
227 |
9 |
3.9 |
2011 |
--- |
--- |
--- |
Dumervil |
335 |
29 |
8.7 |
Abraham |
199 |
19 |
9.5 |
Freeney |
240 |
8 |
3.3 |
Totals |
--- |
--- |
--- |
Dumervil |
671 |
57 |
8.5 |
Abraham |
424 |
40 |
9.4 |
Freeney |
467 |
17 |
3.6 |
Again, Dumervil had many more snaps against the run over the course of the last two years. Percentage wise though, John Abraham exceeds his production. Freeney is nowhere close to either--it doesn't appear as if the position change affected his output here. Very similar numbers in both years.
Finally, here are their pass rushing numbers:
Player |
Pass Snaps |
P. Rush Snaps |
P. Rush % |
Sack |
Sack % |
Press |
Total |
% |
2012 |
--- |
--- |
--- |
--- |
--- |
--- |
--- |
--- |
Dumervil |
540 |
489 |
90.6 |
12 |
2.6 |
48 |
60 |
12.3 |
Abraham |
453 |
417 |
92.1 |
10 |
2.3 |
46 |
56 |
13.4 |
Freeney |
436 |
414 |
95.0 |
5 |
1.2 |
42 |
47 |
11.4 |
2011 |
--- |
--- |
--- |
--- |
--- |
--- |
--- |
--- |
Dumervil |
469 |
464 |
98.9 |
12 |
2.9 |
35 |
47 |
10.1 |
Abraham |
395 |
343 |
86.8 |
10 |
2.9 |
43 |
53 |
15.4 |
Freeney |
412 |
412 |
100.0 |
8 |
1.9 |
41 |
49 |
11.9 |
Totals |
--- |
--- |
--- |
--- |
--- |
--- |
--- |
--- |
Dumervil |
1009 |
953 |
94.4 |
24 |
2.5 |
83 |
107 |
11.2 |
Abraham |
848 |
760 |
89.6 |
20 |
2.6 |
89 |
109 |
14.3 |
Freeney |
848 |
826 |
97.4 |
13 |
1.6 |
83 |
96 |
11.6 |
- Let's use 11.2 %, call it 11% as our benchmark since that is what we are losing with Dumervil. We want to see a pressure of some kind on 11% of the pass rushing snaps. Forget sack numbers for a minute here. Though sacks are shiny, sparkly numbers, a pressure affects the play whether a sack is registered or not, so instead lets look at the aggregate numbers (sacks+pressures). Abraham outperforms both. Freeney has a slightly higher percentage of pressures.
- When we examine sack % (think TD % or INT % for QB's) Dumervil and Abraham are dead even. Freeney lags behind here and it is a significant number.
- Freeney and Dumervil the last couple of years had the highest % of rushing the passer in passing situations. Abraham is lower and again it's due to how much he was put in coverage.
Conclusions
Production wise, Abraham would replace Dumervil's production better than Freeney. In fact he exceeds Dumervil on a percentage basis in all three facets of the game (pass rush, run support, coverage). He would also give the Broncos flexibility in nickel defense to rush three and drop back in coverage. As far as total snaps, both Freeney and Abraham fall short of Dumervil's contributions.
I would feel fine about Freeney in this defense even though his production in the pass rush department looks bad due to a lower sack number in 2012. Bottom line he still disrupted the play at a high percentage due to hits and hurries.
If we get Freeney, he's situational, which is also why the Broncos shouldn't (and won't) give him 6 million per year. If we get Abraham, he'll be on the field much more.
In Part 3, Big Pete is going to take a closer look at some possible in-house replacements.
GO BRONCOS!!!