Scouting the Jets - A dialogue of sorts

BM: I'm so bored right now trying to figure out how to analyze the Jets, I mean they absolutely stink.

EBM: No kidding, the Jets are worse than the pack of illiterate Raiders fans that take up space in the Black Hole on Sundays.

GBM: Now, I'm sure there are some good things you can find about the team to talk about? How about their stout Run Defense?

BM: We can't run the ball anyway, Fox and Gase are stupid if they come into this game trying to run the ball.

EBM: You gotta admit though, stupid is as stupid does.

GBM: Come on now, John Fox and Adam Gase are good leaders and have had a positive impact on the football culture out at Dove Valley.

BM: Rex Ryan said they are going to start Geno Smith again.  Let's see Geno Smith 21 career games, 9-12 record, 17 games with an interception only 4 games without one. Geno Smith 9 games without a TD pass...twice the amount of games without a TD pass as there are without an interception.  Offense has scored more than 30 twice, less than 20 points 12 times.

GBM: Okay, so the kid has struggled, but isn't that due more to the lack of talent around him?

BM: Uh I suppose. I think his #1 receiver last year was some guy named Kerley, and his #1 this year was our #2 last year. But they brought in some guys along the line, drafted TE Jace Amaro, gave him Eric Decker....I mean he has some talent.

EBM: Eric Decker a weapon for who? The Turfmonster? heh heh

BM: His accuracy is an issue. 3/5 games this season he struggled to meet 50% passing from the field. He's also turnover prone, he has 6 interceptions and one in each game this season.

GBM: So what exactly is the issue?

BM: Remember when Tebow was our quarterback? What did we do?

EBM: Watch a lot of terribly horrible offensive football?

BM: No I mean how did we approach things offensively?

GBM: Run everydown and pray to God Tebow didn't have to throw very much.

BM: Exactly! This is how the Jets need to approach the game.  They need to play ball control offense, grind out the yardage on the ground, and capitalize when they do make it into the redzone.

EBM: I think Rex Ryan has a better shot at landing a gig in the foot fetish industry than the Jets do at scoring in the redzone. Did you know they are only coverting a TD 1 in every 3 trips down there?

BM: Well they have to do something, I wonder if they could use their personnel better? This 3rd down against the Lions they are using two tight ends, a FB, and 1 WR with 9 yards to convert.  Who are they trying to kid? If you have to run a 2-TE set fine but get Amaro out there along with Kerley and Decker, Decker was a redzone machine with the Broncos.

GBM: Ok, so we know they need to run the ball more on offense, how about their defense, what do they do to stop Manning and co?

EBM: Pray heh heh "Dear Lord please don't let us get killed!"

BM: Yeah, prayin' couldn't hurt, I mean they don't have Tebow anymore but prayin' couldn't hurt. Well they lead the league in sacks, that's something! Let's see Calvin Pace has 3.5, Wilkerson has 3, Richardson has 3, Davis has 2, even Dawan Landry has 1.5. They're getting pressure up front but they are also blitzing from the linebacker position and the secondary.

GBM: Oh dear, you don't blitz Peyton Manning

EBM: Damn straight you don't blitz the bionic-neck!

BM: They aren't giving up a lot of yards but they are still allowing about 25 points per game, their offense is putting them in some bad situations with turnovers.

EBM: Are you done thinking about this crap team yet? I'm hungry.

BM: Alright here's my scouting report for the week!

When the Jets run the ball, Advantage: Jets

Chris Ivory is a tough runner that has great vision and some speed to burn. Thus far on the season he has rushed for a 5.4 yard per carry average on 59 carries. His backup Chris Johnson has also managed to rush the ball decently well with a 4.0 yard per carry average on 48 carries.

The Broncos are top 3 against the rush but a lot of that is due to holding large leads and forcing the offense to be one dimensional. Seattle, even though they didn't rush the ball for a high YPC average, managed to grind the ball out in the running game and wear the Broncos down late in the game. For the Jets to have any shot at winning, they need to build this game off ball control offense with a heavy dose of Chris Ivory. From there they can layer in the playaction game and run some high percentage plays that will give Geno some easy reads and throws.

When the Jets pass the ball, Advantage: Broncos

Geno Smith isn't a terrible quarterback. He is capable of making some great plays and scrambling around to buy some time, but he is far to mistake prone and it costs his team. Geno needs to get to the point where on every attempt he is eliminating options that will hurt his team. Take the check down, throw the ball away, take the sack, do whatever you have to do in order to keep the ball on offense.

He's going to have some issues this week though due to the Broncos defense. This squad can win at all levels. They can win upfront against the run, they can rush the passer with 4, when needed they can blitz and still be assured they will have quality coverage on the backend.

If Geno's issues are with reading and decision making, this is the game to throw the kitchen sink as far as looks at him. Vary your coverages, let's open up the blitz schemes a little bit, make each and every moment he has to spend in the pocket uncomfortable and ripe with fear.

When the Broncos pass the ball, Advantage: Broncos

Their front better get pressure and get it quick because the Jets secondary is one of the worse the Broncos will have to face all season. Not only that they are so green that it would be hard for Rex Ryan to implement one of his patented coverage and blitz gameplans he seems to save for a game like this. I will say this, the Jets have nothing to lose. Neither does Rex. If they're going to go down, they might as well go down shooting. I would have no issues as a Jets fan if Rex planned the most aggressive game of the season against the Denver offense. Peyton Manning's time to throw this season is 2.17 seconds.

When the Broncos run the ball, Advantage: Jets

If the Broncos are serious about running the ball, they need to come out in 12 personnel and establish the effort. Otherwise, they would be better served attacking a secondary and Linebacking corps that is ill suited to win coverage matchups against our receivers on a consistent basis.

Final Prediction

Broncos 34, Jets 7

GO BRONCOS!!!