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Super Bowl odds 2015: Broncos are Super Bowl favorites again

Heading into Week 7 of the 2014 NFL season, the Denver Broncos regained Vegas sportsbook supremacy as the favorites to win Super Bowl XLIX in 2015.

Adam Hunger-USA TODAY Sports

In some ways, it feels a lot like 2013 again. In some ways, it doesn't.

The Broncos aren't world-beaters, nor are they on a record-setting pace. But just like last October, they're atop just about every ranking out there - whether it's DVOApower rankings, or Vegas' sportsbooks.

Indeed, the Denver Broncos are Super Bowl favorites again, improving from 17/4 to 4/1 odds while the former favorite Seattle Seahawks dropped from 4/1 to 6/1 odds after their 23-30 loss to the Dallas Cowboys in Week 6. Those numbers come courtesy also has moved Denver into its top spot in its NFL Elo ratings, but that still gives the Broncos just a 13 percent chance of winning the Super Bowl. The Elo ratings aren't advanced analytics focusing on the efficiency of the 2014 Broncos like I cover in our Elevated Stats; instead, I think of them as an "advanced point spread," where only wins and losses (and point margins and home-away-ness) are taken into account. Elo ratings also take every game from the beginning of (NFL) time into account, with more recent games attaining greater weight. So the 2014 Broncos are atop the Elo ratings heading into Week 7 largely because of the success they've had over the past two years, not just the past six weeks.

Meanwhile, they're 7-point favorites against the San Francisco 49ers according to Vegas, but Elo has Denver only as 3.5-point favorites. Even opening at 6 points, that line has felt high to me.