Week nine fantasy football focus: Broncos vs. Patriots

Peyton Manning or Tom Brady? Wait, we covered that already.

By jacobdearlove Oct 30, 2014, 4:57pm MDT

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The Denver Broncos' offense and defense keeps rolling; it's a good time to be a Broncos fan who likes to own Broncos players in fantasy. Let's take a look at Broncos at Patriots, shall we?

Quarterbacks:

Peyton Manning (DEN)

Manning ranks second in the league in fantasy points per game for a QB, behind Andrew Luck; however, Manning is the only quarterback to throw for 23+ points in every single game of the 2014 season (Luck had 22.6 in Week 2). Either way, there's no need to reach that far to realize how incredible Manning has been for fantasy owners this season. Averaging 27.7 fantasy points per game, and showing no signs of slowing down after another three-TD performance, Manning is a must-start in Week Nine, as always. The New England Patriots defense is ranked 5th in the league vs. QBs thus far in the season, hinting at a possibly tough match-up on surface level; however, if you dig a little deeper, there's a plausible reason why the Patriots have allowed so few points against QBs. The Pats have matched up against the following quarterbacks in 2014: Geno Smith, Derek Carr, Matt Cassel, Ryan Tannehill, Andy Dalton, Kyle Orton, Jay Cutler, and Alex Smith. In case it isn't obvious, there's not a single top-tier fantasy quarterback on that list, and the Pats actually allowed over 25 points to Alex Smith. In other words, the defense hasn't actually been as impressive as the numbers suggest, and Manning owners should have no reason to worry.

Verdict: Start as top-tier QB-1

Prediction: 320 yards, 3 TDs, 1 INT- 28.8 fantasy points

Tom Brady (NE)

Tom Brady has strung together four straight impressive fantasy weeks, and I'll be the first to admit that I was wrong in my projections for him in almost all of those weeks. Brady's impressive numbers over the last four weeks have raised his season average to 22.0 fantasy points per game. That being said, that's still good enough for just 14th in the league, due to four less-than-impressive weeks to start the season (average of 13.8 FPPG). Brady has been cruising, but three of the four opponents that he's gouged for huge games (CHI, CIN, NYJ) have been in the bottom half of the league in fantasy points vs. QBs, and two of those (Bears and Jets) are the worst two defenses vs. QBs in fantasy. The Broncos have not exactly been a tough defense against QBs, allowing top-ten numbers vs. quarterbacks, so it wouldn't be outrageous for Brady to amass 20+ points. With a steady diet of Von Miller and Demarcus Ware in the backfield, and a match-up against the top cornerback duo in the league, don't expect another massive week out of the Patriots quarterback.

Verdict: Start as QB-1

Prediction: 270 yards, 2 TDs- 22.8 fantasy points

Week Nine Top 20 QB Rankings:

Week Nine Top 20 Fantasy Quarterback Rankings
1.	Peyton Manning (@NE)	11.	Andy Dalton (vs. JAX)
2.	Andrew Luck (@ NYG)	12.	Nick Foles (@ HOU)
3.	Drew Brees (@ CAR)	13.	Ryan Tannehill (vs. SD)
4.	Russell Wilson (vs. OAK)	14.	Tony Romo (vs. ARI)
5.	Tom Brady (vs. DEN)	15.	Joe Flacco (@ PIT)
6.	Carson Palmer (@ DAL)	16.	Eli Manning (vs. IND)
7.	Colin Kaepernick (vs. STL)	17.	Robert Griffin III (vs. MIN)
8.	Philip Rivers (@ MIA)	18.	Ryan Fitzpatrick (vs. PHI)
9.	Ben Roethlisberger (vs. BAL)	19.	Teddy Bridgewater (vs. WAS)
10.	Cam Newton (vs. NO)	20.	Alex Smith (vs. NYJ)

Running Backs:

Ronnie Hillman (DEN)

Ronnie Hillman has now strung together three straight games of 11+ fantasy points in standard leagues, three games in which he has averaged over 90 yards on the ground and added 3+ receptions in each. That being said, Hillman has had a few touchdowns vultured by Juwan Thompson, which has held him back from astronomical fantasy numbers. Hillman has a juicy match-up against New England this week, as the Pats have allowed the fifth-most points to running backs in 2014. Each week, Hillman further solidifies his position as the Broncos starter at the RB position, and he continues to cement himself as a week-in, week-out starter in fantasy.

Keep an eye on the injury report, but Hillman says he should be good to go.

Verdict: Start as low-end RB-1

Prediction: 85 rushing yards, 1 TD, 3 receptions, 20 receiving yards- 16.5 fantasy points (19.5 PPR)

Juwan Thompson (DEN)

Juwan Thompson found the end-zone twice in last week's victory over the Chargers, moving his 2014 total to three. Other than the two touchdown runs, Thompson amassed just 2.4 fantasy points. Thompson will continue to be a touchdown-dependent boom-or-bust player, who's worth a roll of the dice if you need a flex plug-in.

Verdict: TD-heavy boom-or-bust

Prediction: 25 rushing yards, 1 reception, 5 receiving yards- 3.0 fantasy points (4.0 PPR)

Shane Vereen (NE)

When Stevan Ridley suffered a season-ending injury two weeks ago, it looked as though Vereen was finally going to be the go-to guy in the New England backfield and blossom into the fantasy stud that he has the potential to be. Instead, Vereen was suffering from an illness heading into last week's match-up against the Bears, and was limited to just five carries and eight touches in total, for just 45 total yards. Hopefully the lack of use was due to the sickness, or else Vereen owners could see more of the boom-or-bust play that has plagued his fantasy production in 2014. Vereen has a stinker of a match-up this week against the Broncos, who have been lights out against the run over their last three games, allowing a total of 15.0 (yes, fifteen) points to all opposing running backs combined over that stretch. Don't expect much out of Vereen in Week Nine, although he's not a terrible start as a boom-or-bust RB-3/flex, especially in PPR.

Verdict: Boom-or-bust RB-3/Flex

Prediction: 30 rushing yards, 6 receptions, 45 receiving yards- 7.5 fantasy points (13.5 PPR)

Week Nine Top 20 RB Rankings:

Week Nine Top 20 Running Back Rankings
1.	Demarco Murray (vs. ARI)	11.	LeSean McCoy (@ HOU)
2.	Marshawn Lynch (vs. OAK)	12.	Lamar Miller (vs. SD)
3.	Mark Ingram (@ CAR)	13.	Alfred Morris (@ MIN)
4.	Arian Foster (vs. PHI)	14.	Frank Gore (vs. STL)
5.	Ahmad Bradshaw (@ NYG)	15.	Justin Forsett (@ PIT)
6.	Giovani Bernard (vs. JAX)	16.	Tre Mason (@ SF)
7.	Jamaal Charles (vs. NYJ)	17.	Ben Tate (vs. TB)
8.	Le'Veon Bell (vs. BAL)	18.	Branden Oliver (@MIA)
9.	Ronnie Hillman (@NE)	19.	Bobby Rainey (@CLE)
10.	Andre Ellington (@ DAL)	20.	Denard Robinson (@ CIN)

Wide Receivers:

Demaryius Thomas (DEN)

The leader in fantasy points per game for wide receivers will be taking a trip to Revis Island in Week Nine, but that shouldn't stop Thomas from producing as a WR-1. Thomas has faced off against Revis twice, totaling just three catches and less than 60 total yards in those games; however, both were with Tim Tebow at the helm, who isn't exactly Peyton Manning. Thomas had no problem against the talented corners of Arizona a few weeks ago, and should still be able to put up respectable points in New England. In three career games against the Pats, Demaryius has averaged over 100 receiving yards and nearly seven receptions per game.

Verdict: Start as WR-1

Prediction: 6 receptions, 120 yards, 1 TD- 18.0 fantasy points (24.0 PPR)

Emmanuel Sanders (DEN)

Emmanuel Sanders showcased everything that makes him a special player last week against the Chargers, and now everybody must acknowledge the talent that he has. Sanders made up for all his touchdown woes thus far into the season, notching three in one game, and bringing his 2014 total to a respectable four. Sanders has proven time and time again this season that he isn't afraid to challenge physical defenders, so the physical duo of Revis and Browner shouldn't intimidate him one bit. Sanders is a viable WR-2 option, especially in PPR, despite a tough match-up.

Verdict: Start as WR-2

Prediction: 7 receptions, 90 yards, 1 TD- 15.0 fantasy points (22.0 PPR)

Wes Welker (DEN)

Welker does not rank in the Top 75 receivers for fantasy points per game in 2014, even in PPR formats, and is little more than a desperation play at this point. If he finds the end-zone, Welker could score 10+ points, but he's much more likely to give you 4-5 points per week with his current role in the offense.

Verdict: Sit

Prediction: 4 receptions, 40 yards- 4.0 fantasy points (8.0 PPR)

Brandon Lafell (NE)

Brandon LaFell has usurped Julian Edelman as the top fantasy receiver in New England, with three 16+ point performances this season, including a big 11-for-11, 124 yards, and one touchdown performance against the Bears in Week Eight. LaFell is garnering enough attention from Tom Brady to make him a WR-2 in Week Nine against the Broncos, even with a tough match-up against Harris Jr./Talib. Despite the fact that it's a tough match-up, this game has potential to be a shootout, with the Patriots needing to lean on their passing attack.

Verdict: Start as WR-2

Prediction: 7 receptions, 90 yards, 1 TD- 15.0 fantasy points (22.0 PPR)

Julian Edelman (NE)

Julian Edelman is a long-shot play anymore in New England, as it appears Brady has a couple other weapons ranked above him in the pecking order. That being said, Edelman could see quite a few targets against the Broncos this week if it becomes a shootout, so he'll be a WR-3/flex play in this match-up.

Verdict: WR-3/Flex

Prediction: 5 receptions, 60 yards- 6.0 fantasy points (11.0 PPR)

Week Nine Top 20 WR Rankings:

Week Nine Top 20 Wide Receiver Rankings
1.	Antonio Brown (vs. BAL)	11.	Emmanuel Sanders (@ NE)
2.	AJ Green (vs. JAX)	12.	Brandin Cooks (@ CAR)
3.	Demaryius Thomas (@ NE)	13.	Mike Evans (@ CLE)
4.	Dez Bryant (vs. ARI)	14.	Larry Fitzgerald (@ DAL)
5.	Jeremy Maclin (@ HOU)	15.	Mohamed Sanu (vs. JAX)
6.	Kelvin Benjamin (vs. NO)	16.	Cordarrelle Patterson (vs. WAS)
7.	TY Hilton (@ NYG)	17.	Terrance Williams (vs. ARI)
8.	Anquan Boldin (vs. STL)	18.	Doug Baldwin (vs. OAK)
9.	Mike Wallace (vs. SD)	19.	Steve Smith Sr. (@ PIT)
10.	DeAndre Hopkins (vs. PHI)	20.	Brandon LaFell (vs. DEN)

Tight Ends:

Julius Thomas (DEN)

Julius Thomas has been relatively invisible on the box-score over the last couple weeks, posting back to back weeks of less than three points. Julius hasn't found the end-zone once over those two weeks, and has only hauled in 6-of-12 targets. Thomas has an okay match-up against a middle of the pack Patriots defense when it comes to facing tight ends. The big Broncos pass-catcher is due for a bounce-back week soon, and he's still easily one of the most talented tight ends in the league, so he's still a must-start.

Verdict: Start as TE-1

Prediction: 6 receptions, 70 yards, 1 TD- 13.0 fantasy points (19.0 PPR)

Rob Gronkowski (NE)

Gronk is back to his old form, posting three 90+ yard performances over the last four games, and finding the end-zone three times in last week's cakewalk over the Bears. Brady is throwing to his favourite target just as frequently as ever, targeting Gronkowski nine or more times in each of those last four games. The Broncos have had a tough time covering tight ends more-so than any other position, so this match-up has plenty of fantasy potential for Grokowski; he's a must-start as a TE-1.

Verdict: Start as TE-1

Prediction: 8 receptions, 90 yards, 1 TD- 15.0 fantasy points (23.0 PPR)

Timothy Wright (NE)

There was a reason why the New England Patriots decided to trade a Pro-Bowl offensive lineman to the Buccaneers for Tim Wright, no matter how absurd it still is. Wright has been a solid performer for the Pats, catching touchdowns in three straight games. The downside to Wright is that he's averaged just above three targets per game, which limits his reliability in PPR leagues, especially as a TE-1. Wright is a very viable TE-2 option, with the hope that he catches a touchdown; however, he's not worth consideration as a TE-1 yet.

Verdict: Start as TE-2

Prediction: 4 receptions, 35 yards- 3.5 fantasy points (7.5 PPR)

Week Nine Top 20 TE Rankings:

Week Nine Top 20 Tight End Rankings
1.	Rob Gronkowski (vs. DEN)	11.	Vernon Davis (vs. STL)
2.	Jimmy Graham (@ CAR)	12.	Zach Ertz (@ HOU)
3.	Julius Thomas (@ NE)	13.	Heath Miller (vs. BAL)
4.	Antonio Gates (@ MIA)	14.	Jason Witten (vs. ARI)
5.	Greg Olsen (vs. NO)	15.	Jordan Cameron (vs. TB)
6.	Travis Kelce (@ NYJ)	16.	Luke Willson (vs. OAK)
7.	Dwayne Allen (@ NYG)	17.	Jared Cook (@ SF)
8.	Jordan Reed (@ MIN)	18.	Coby Fleener (@ NYG)
9.	Larry Donnell (vs. IND)	19.	Timothy Wright (vs. DEN)
10.	Clay Harbor (@ CIN)	20.	Jace Amaro (@ KC)

Defense/Special Teams:

Denver Broncos D/ST:

The Broncos defense has become a run-stopping force, and a quarterback's nightmare, ranking third in fantasy points per game for a defense over the past three weeks. The Broncos should be strong against the run yet again this week, but will face a formidable passing attack in New England, and could have a difficult time keeping the score low. The match-up is not favorable, but the Broncos have a ton of play-makers on the defense who can account for points. The Broncos will be a risky start this week against the Pats.

Verdict: Risky start

Prediction: 18-21 points allowed, 3 sacks- 6.0 fantasy points

New England Patriots D/ST:

The Patriots are not so far behind the Broncos in defensive production, ranking fourth in fantasy points per game over the past three weeks, and fifth overall in the entire season. The Pats have relied on sacks to get fantasy points, but will have a hard time getting at Peyton Manning against the Broncos, who have allowed just eight sacks the entire season, fewer than any team other than the Eagles. The Patriots, like the Broncos, are a risky defensive start this week facing such a formidable offense, but neither team merits dropping another player off your bench to add a replacement defense.