Week 11 NFL Picks: The Broncos will regain the #1 seed

Last week went pretty well with only a few upsets. However, this week has many more potential pitfalls as most games are looking to be close. This week features good teams vs good teams, and bad teams vs bad teams. How do you pick between two bad teams? Conversely, how do you pick between good teams? Does home field advantage even out two good teams and tilt it somehow? Case in point would be Seattle at Kansas City. Seattle is the better team (I think), but they don't play to their potential on the road. Does this mean that Kansas City, even though they are slightly inferior, will win simply because of location? Keep reading, and I'll guide you to the promised land!

• Last Week: 9-4
• Season: 95-51-1

Here are my picks this week, tell us yours in the comments!

Buffalo Bills (5-4)
at

Miami Dolphins (5-4)

Both the Bills and Dolphins suffered heat breaking losses last week, so look for revenge to be on their minds Thursday Night. Can Kyle Orton hold off a banged up Ryan Tannehill? If this game were being played in Buffalo, I'd say absolutely. Unfortunately for the Bills, this game will be in Southern Florida. Without the bitter cold and unpredictable wind on their side, I see the Bills barely dropping this game to the Dolphins, who stay within striking distance of the Patriots. Prediction: Bills 20, Dolphins 24

Minnesota Vikings (4-5)
at

Chicago Bears (3-6)

Ok, let's be serious here for just a second, shall we? How happy are Denver Broncos fans to have had Hurricane Josh blow Jay Cutler out of town? Holy hell this guy is bad. He has the weapons to get the job done, but unfortunately for Bears fans, he has the football intelligence of a loaf of bread. Even with Jay Cutler working against the Bears, they won't drop this game. Call it a hunch, or call it playing the odds, but I see the Bears winning. Predictions: Vikings 17, Bears 20

Houston Texans (4-5)
at

Cleveland Browns (6-3)

Can the Brian Hoyer train keep on track against another good defense? The messed up part of this is that my brain says "oh hey look, the Browns, they'll lose.", but that is only because they've pretty much stunk for the last 20 years. I think the reason why I'm not as high on this prediction (as you'll see in the confidence ratings) as I should be is because I'm still waiting for Cleveland to remember that they are Cleveland. It's the same bias I have with Detroit. Yes, they are playing great football, but my mind still sees them as the sorry ass Lions. Prediction: Texans 17, Browns 24

Atlanta Falcons (3-6)
at

Carolina Panthers (3-6-1)

As maddening as it is to try to pick a winner out of two good teams, it's probably harder to pick the winner out of two bad teams, and make no mistake about it, these are two bad teams. I really want to pick the Falcons, I really do; however, I just can't. Something inside of me says that the Panthers will be pissed off enough to eek out a home victory over the worse-than-they-should-be Falcons. Prediction: Falcons 24, Panthers 31

Cincinnati Bengals (5-3-1)
at

New Orleans Saints (4-5)

And now for blatant bias on my part. Yes, I'm the biggest Broncos homer you'll ever meet, but I absolutely love the city of New Orleans as well as their people, fans, and team. When the Saints are on, they are practically impossible to beat. The only problem is that they have been off more than they've been on this year which makes it frustratingly impossible to predict which team will show up. When you throw the ridiculously inconsistent Bengals into the mix, you are stuck predicting a game that can be played between four different teams. Is it the good Bengals or bad Bengals against the good Saints or bad Saints? Decisions decision. Prediction: Bad Bengals 6, Good Saints 45

Tampa Bay Buccaneers (1-8)
at

Washington Redskins (3-6)

Horrible Bucs against mediocre Redskins (yep, I'll call them by their team name). Tampa Bay is due for a win, but I have RG3 on my fantasy team. Since I can be bought for the hefty price of a $20/week buy in, I'm taking RG3 and the Washington Red Potato Skins so that I can get truly excited when RG3 scores without me being mad that it'll destroy my picks. Predictions: Buccaneers 13, Redskins 20

Denver Broncos (7-2)
at

St. Louis Rams (3-6)

Want to know how big of a Broncos homer I am? When I made all these little icons, I made the Broncos icon slightly bigger than everyone elses. Its these little things that would otherwise go unnoticed that separate the hardcore fans from the passers by. Thanks to the Broncos' brand spanking new indoor practice facility, they'll be able to simulate the dome in St. Louis to better prepare themselves for the Rams. At least that what I'm hoping John Fox is doing. Then again, we're talking about a coach who gets "stunned" during games, and doesn't prepare his team for crowd noise in Super Bowls. However, I think the Broncos will overcome Fox much the same way the Bears will overcome Cutler, especially with the Rams benching their QB the week they go against Von Miller and the boys. Prediction: Broncos 34, Rams 13

San Francisco 49ers (5-4)
at 

New York Giants (3-6)

Words can not express how big of a trouncing this should be by the 49ers. They have the pieces to be a dominant team, but for whatever reason, they just aren't. Maybe it's the front office's constant squabbling with their head coach, or maybe the players are simply too young to realize that they are squandering immense talent, but something isn't calibrated with this squad. And then we get the news that Patrick Willis is out. Ouch. Prediction: 49ers 24, Giants 27 in overtime

Seattle Seahawks (6-3)
at 

Kansas City Chiefs (6-3)

Here we go, the game of the week in my opinion. The Seahawks really are the better team even without Mebane, but they are playing on the road. We all know that at home, the Seahawks are practically unstoppable while they are very beatable on the road. The Chiefs are no slouch, but are a rung beneath the 'Hawks. However, they are playing at home, and it's gonna be cold. Will the crowd (I've tailgated at many Chiefs games, and the crowd really is incredible), the weather, and a good defense enough to cause the Seahawks to stumble and fall? I really think it is. Like, I REALLY think it is. But I just can't make my fingers write down the Chiefs' name because right when I think the Seahawks are destined to lose, they always make me look like an idiot and drop a 40 burger. Prediction: Seahawks 24, Chiefs failing to tie for overtime as time expires 21

Oakland Raiders (0-9)
at 

San Diego Chargers (5-4)

This is a divisional game which is about the only reason why I can even think to write anything resembling a glimmer of hope for the Raiders. Other than that, this is the worst team in football against a good team in the AFC. This should and will be a laugher. Prediction: Raiders 13, Chargers 31

Detroit Lions (7-2)
at 

Arizona Cardinals (8-1)

Two great defenses square off against each other. If this were last week, I'd also throw in two good offenses, but as we all know, Carson Palmer is out with an ACL tear just two days after he signed a $50 million contract. Can Drew Stanton out duel Mathew Stafford? Not with Megatron back he can't. Prediction: Lions 24, Cardinals 17

Philadelphia Eagles (7-2)
at 

Green Bay Packers (6-3)

This game is pretty much the opposite of Atlanta vs Carolina. Instead of two bad teams, we have two good teams. If Aaron Rodgers plays like he did last week, nobody can stop the Packers. The question is, can anyone stop Mark Sanchez? Maybe Chip Kelly's offense is tailor made for him? Right when I think I might flip flop and pick the Eagles, I remember that this is in Green Bay, and they have this guy named Rodgers and Clay Mathews, and I snap out of it. Prediction: Eagles 31, Packers 45

New England Patriots (7-2)
at

Indianapolis Colts (6-3) SNF

The only thing I ask of you all is to remember where you were for this game, as this is the game that puts Denver back in the driving seat. Will a curb stomping at the hands of the Colts make Broncos fans feel any better about the drubbing by the Patriots two weeks ago? Yes, Yes it will. Prediction: Patriots 27, Colts 41

Pittsburgh Steelers (6-4) 
at 

Tennessee Titans (2-7) MNF

Talk about falling back to earth, right Steeler fans? Right when I thought that the Steelers were a formidable team, they stink Cleveland up worse than the town does all by itself. Either way, I think that Big Ben Roethlisberger gets his mojo back (the kind that won't land him in a court room), and the Steelers use the Titans much like the Broncos used the Raiders: As a tooth brush to wash the bad taste of a loss out of their mouths. Prediction: Steelers 31, Titans 13

And now for my rankings of confidence.

What a confidence ranking is, is ranking teams in order of most confident pick to least confident pick. For example, I have the Broncos at the very top. This means that I'm the most confident in the Broncos winning than any other team that plays this week, and I'd be John Fox (aka "stunned") if the Rams won. I also have Chicago at the very bottom. That means I picked Chicago to win, but I wouldn't be surprised at all if they lost.

I encourage you all to create a competition in the comments section and check back in on Monday or Tuesday to see who scored the most points. You get the corresponding points next to each winner you predicted. For example, if the Saints win, I'll get 12 points for that game because I predicted they'd win. If Atlanta beats Carolina, I won't get any points for that game. Tally up the points at the end of the week to brag about being smarter than everyone else.

14 Denver
13 San Diego
12   New Orleans
11 Pittsburgh
10 Carolina
9 Green Bay
8 Cleveland
7 Seattle
6 Miami
5 Indianapolis
4 Detroit
3 Giants
2 Washington
1 Chicago