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NFL Picks Week 10: The Broncos are my lock of the week.

It's Week 10 in the NFL and here are your picks for the week. I will give a bonus "confidence" ranking at the end, so keep reading.
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It's that time of the week ladies and gentlemen; it's time for your NFL picks of the week. I'll detail every game and give my winner and loser for each matchup. We are just past the halfway point of the season, so we should have a pretty clear picture of which teams are good and which teams are bad, right? Wrong! It seems like just when we think we can all sit back and hit the cruise control button, horrible teams almost upset juggernauts, and great teams get taken to the brink by horrible teams. So sit back, buckle up, and enjoy the ride.

  • Last Week: 11-2
  • Season: 86-47-1

Thanks to a big Thursday Night Football win by the Cleveland Browns, my Week 10 is off to a lousy start. But fear not, for in my confidence ratings, I only picked Cincinnati at 2, so second from the lowest confidence. Trust me people, you'll win a lot of office pools doing it this way.

Here are my picks this week, tell us yours in the comments!

Cleveland Browns (5-3) at Cincinnati Bengals (5-2-1)

Well, I got this one wrong. I picked the Bengals simply because they were playing at home. Typically, Cincinnati is a very tough place for visitors to play, however, Cleveland made short work out of the pesky Bengals. Thankfully, in my confidence rankings, I had them at the bottom (meaning I was least confident in this pick). Prediction: Browns 24, Bengals 27.

Kansas City Chiefs (5-3) at Buffalo Bills (5-3)

Alex Smith vs Kyle Orton, who would have seen this game having real playoff implications two months ago? Picking this game is actually semi tough because a) Kansas City has good pass rushers, b) the Bills love having their QB sacked (ranked 28th), and c) the Bills have Kyle "I'll sack myself at the least opportune time" Orton standing like a statue back there. Hmm, which team do I think will win? The only real monkey wrench in this obvious KC victory is that they are playing in Buffalo where winds can get nasty, and Orton really does throw a pretty ball. Prediction: Chiefs 24, Bills 17.

Miami Dolphins (5-3) at Detroit Lions (6-2)

What in the world has gotten into Miami? They seem practically invincible as of late. I mean, how about that smack down on the Chargers? Impressive! The Detroit Lions are finally getting their offensive weapons back. Calvin Johnson and Reggie Bush are suppose to play, and their defense is still top notch. The most points Detroit has allowed all year is 24 compared to Miami's 34. So I ask you, which offense do you think can get to 24 first? Prediction: Dolphins 13, Lions 24.

Dallas Cowboys (6-3) at Jacksonville Jaguars (1-8)

This game is being played in London.
Rosebud: London?
Avi: London.
Avi's Partner: London?
Avi: Yes, London! You know: fish, chips, cup o' tea, bad food, worse weather, Marry f*cking Poppins... LONDON.
Ok, I got the Snatch quote out of my system, but used up all my space in doing so. Romo or not, it's the Cowboys vs Jags.  Prediction: Cowboys 27, Jaguars 13.

San Francisco 49ers (4-4) at New Orleans Saints (4-4)

Like Broncos fans found out last week, there are just certain places that are impossible to win at. The Patriots haven't dropped a single game at home to an AFC team since 2006, so the Broncos were doomed the moment the NFL's garbage scheduling system said "Denver at New England". I say that to say this: Much like AFC teams in New England, nobody wins in the Super Dome but the Saints. This game could be close, but ultimately, the Saints will come marching in and win. Prediction: 49ers 17, Saints 30.

Tennessee Titans (2-6) at Baltimore Ravens (5-4)

This game is a tale of two teams at opposite ends of the spectrum. On one hand, you have the Ravens. They boast a Top 10 offense and Top 10 defense. Lining up across from them is Tennessee and their Bottom 10 offense and Bottom 10 defense. Throw in a rookie QB, and if the Raven's don't cover their 9.5pt spread, I'll eat my computer. Prediction: Titans 6, Ravens 34.

Pittsburgh Steelers (6-3) at New York Jets (1-8)

Rex Ryan (aka my choice to be Head Coach of the Broncos ext season) plays host to the Steelers. Two months ago, everyone would have said this would be a boring game with a combined score of about 12. Well, fast forward 9 games, and the Steelers are likely to score 12 in the first 10 minutes. Unfortunately for the Jets, their owner and GM are letting them down. Rex can only do so much with the talent given to him. If you still have tape of the Colts at Steelers game, put it on and delete the scoring from Indy to find out what this game has in store. Prediction: Steelers 51, Jets 13.

Atlanta Falcons (2-6) at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (1-7)

Ok, something has to give here. Atlanta hasn't won a single road game all season, however, Tampa Bay hasn't won a single home game. So logic says that a streak is ending today, right Bengals and Panthers? When the dust settles and the smoke clears, Atlanta has the better weapons, so I give them a slight edge over the woeful Bucs. Prediction: Falcons 17, Bucs 10.

Denver Broncos (6-2) at Oakland Raiders (0-8)

The Broncos need to wash that horrible taste out of their mouth left by the Patriots. Luckily, Oakland is one hell of a toothbrush and mouth wash. Could this game be an ugly victory ala the Broncos at Jets? Sure, but at some point in the game, the Broncos will remember that they sport the NFL's most talented roster, and the Raiders are pathetic. There's no playing down to their opponent this week, it's time to win and win big. This game is my lock of the week and highest confidence pick. Prediction: Broncos 38, Raiders 16.

St. Louis Rams (3-5) at Arizona Cardinals (7-1)

Divisional games are always tough. If your name isn't the Raiders, you always have a shot, and the Rams seem to play their division rivals tough no matter what. I do like the Cardinals in this one, but I wouldn't be too surprised if the game is a lot closer than the score indicates. Prediction: Rams 13, Cardinals 24.

New York Giants (3-5) at Seattle Seahawks (5-3)

I was stunned that the Raiders took the Seahawks to the brink last week in Seattle. Normally the Seahawks are untouchable in their stadium. I guess a little bit of their mystique has worn off. However, even with that, they are going to stomp the football off of Eli's phone. Prediction: Giants 17, Seahawks 45.

Chicago Bears (3-5) at Green Bay Packers (5-3) SNF

Jay Cutler vs Aaron Rodgers. Laughable, right? I can't fathom a scenario where the Bears walk into Lambeau Field and beat the Packers. It just isn't happening. These two teams are heading in the opposite directions. I fully expect the Bears to keep imploding until Marshall throws a punch at Cutler as he mopes on the sideline. My only real question is this, "would Marshall get suspended for the leagues new domestic violence policy for beating on his woman QB?". Prediction: Bears 24, Packers 34.

Carolina Panthers (3-5-1) at Philadelphia Eagles (6-2) MNF

I don't care what anyone says, this is gonna be a good game. Accident prone Nick Foles is out, and the Sanchize is in. Can Cam Newton pull off his Superman act, or will the Eagles march up and down the field on them? I think this game will be a back and forth event with the outcome being predicated on whichever QB makes the least butt fumbles mistakes.   Prediction: Panthers 24, Eagles 28.

And now for my rankings of confidence.
What a confidence ranking is, is ranking teams in order of most confident pick to least confident pick. Sure, anybody can beat their chest and say "I saw Cleveland beating the Bengals", but how confident were you in that pick? Confident enough to place money on it? Or confident enough to briefly mention it before the kickoff after a few beers and then say "I told you so" after the clock strikes zero? Well, here is how I rank the picks in order of confidence that I'm correct. There are 13 games being played, so they'll be ranked 13-1, 13 being the most confident, and 1 being the least (i.e. it's no surprise I picked incorrectly).

13 Denver
12  Seattle
11  Arizona
10  Green Bay
New Orleans
Kansas City
1 Detroit