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At a simple level there are 3 kinds of RBs in the NFL
- Featured back - good blend of speed and size, capable of playing all three downs, durable and not prone to fumbles
- Bruiser - short-yardage and goal-line specialist, fills the niche that the FB used to fill, generally above average in pass protection because of size and strength
- Scat-back - smaller quicker guys, capable of breaking off long runs (or runs after the catch), hopefully elusive, have to be able to catch the ball really well, also have to be able to pass block, bonus if they can be lined up at WR
KnoMo was our feature back last season. He was a prototype passing offense RB (good ball security, great blitz pickup and above average pass catcher). Ball would be classed more in the "running offense feature back" mold. He played at 235 lbs in college and has the power and quickness to gain the tough yards on 3rd or 4th and short. He filled the Bruiser spot for us as the year went on. Hillman was supposed to be the scat-back prototype. His current weight is at 195 lbs on the Broncos website. Anderson would be classed as a bruiser. He packs a great deal of muscle on his 5-9 frame and he has the power to gain tough yards if Ball is not available. Williams was a "feature back" in college, but at 203 lbs it doesn't look he would have the somatype to handle that role in the NFL. So it would appear that the broncos have the 3 main types covered, but there is one NFL-reality that we have to prepare for: RBs will get injured (more frequently than other positions). So we need someone who can step up and carry the load at RB if Ball goes down for any significant portion of time next year. So let's look to the draft to see if one of these guys will be THAT guy (unless you trust Hillman, Anderson or Williams to be do that - I don't).
There were 36 RBs invited to the NFL combine this year. Some guys greatly improved their draft stock, while others dramatically hurt theirs. Before we start the analysis keep in mind that guys over at draftmetrics.com have determined that only 4 combine numbers are meaningful for a RB: 40 time, vertical, board, 20-yd shuttle. The other combine numbers have a less than 60% correlation to a 5-yr career in the NFL.
Straight-line speed numbers
Player | School | Height | Weight | Off. 40 Time | 10-Yd Split | Speed |
Antonio Andrews | Western Kentucky | 5-10 | 225 | 4.82 | 1.68 | 83.4 |
Dri Archer | Kent State | 5-8 | 173 | 4.26 | 1.46 | 105.1 |
George Atkinson | Notre Dame | 6-1 | 218 | 4.48 | 1.53 | 108.2 |
Kapri Bibbs | Colorado State | 5-9 | 212 | 4.67 | 1.60 | 89.1 |
Alfred Blue | Louisiana State | 6-2 | 223 | 4.63 | 1.56 | 97.1 |
Ka'Deem Carey | Arizona | 5-9 | 207 | 4.70 | 1.59 | 84.8 |
J.C. Copeland | Louisiana State | 5-11 | 271 | 4.95 | 1.72 | 90.3 |
Tim Cornett | UNLV | 6-0 | 209 | 4.48 | 1.60 | 103.8 |
Isaiah Crowell | Alabama State | 5-11 | 224 | 4.57 | 1.55 | 102.7 |
Timothy Flanders | Sam Houston State | 5-9 | 207 | 4.75 | 1.68 | 81.3 |
David Fluellen | Toledo | 5-11 | 224 | 4.72 | 1.66 | 90.3 |
Devonta Freeman | Florida State | 5-8 | 206 | 4.58 | 1.59 | 93.6 |
Tyler Gaffney | Stanford | 5-11 | 220 | 4.49 | 1.53 | 108.3 |
Marion Grice | Arizona State | 6-0 | 208 | DNP | DNP | |
Ryan Hewitt | Stanford | 6-4 | 246 | 4.87 | 1.72 | 87.5 |
Jeremy Hill | LSU | 6-0 | 233 | 4.66 | 1.56 | 98.8 |
Carlos Hyde | Ohio State | 5-11 | 230 | 4.66 | 1.65 | 97.5 |
Storm Johnson | Central Florida | 6-0 | 209 | 4.60 | -- | 93.4 |
Henry Josey | Missouri | 5-8 | 194 | 4.43 | 1.53 | 100.7 |
Tre Mason | Auburn | 5-8 | 207 | 4.50 | 1.50 | 101.0 |
Jerick McKinnon | Georgia Southern | 5-9 | 209 | 4.41 | 1.46 | 110.5 |
Trey Millard | Oklahoma | 6-2 | 247 | DNP | DNP | |
Adam Muema | San Diego State | 5-10 | 202 | DNP | DNP | |
Ladarius Perkins | Mississippi State | 5-7 | 195 | 4.46 | 1.54 | 98.6 |
Silas Redd | Southern California | 5-10 | 212 | 4.70 | 1.62 | 86.9 |
Bishop Sankey | Washington | 5-9 | 209 | 4.49 | 1.59 | 102.8 |
Lache Seastrunk | Baylor | 5-9 | 201 | 4.51 | 1.60 | 97.2 |
Charles Sims | West Virginia | 6-0 | 214 | 4.48 | 1.56 | 106.3 |
Jerome Smith | Syracuse | 5-11 | 220 | 4.84 | 1.62 | 80.2 |
Lorenzo Taliaferro | Coastal Carolina | 6-0 | 229 | 4.58 | 1.63 | 104.1 |
De'Anthony Thomas | Oregon | 5-8 | 174 | 4.50 | 1.57 | 84.9 |
Terrance West | Towson | 5-9 | 225 | 4.54 | 1.59 | 105.9 |
James White | Wisconsin | 5-9 | 204 | 4.57 | 1.57 | 93.5 |
James Wilder | Florida State | 6-3 | 232 | 4.86 | 1.72 | 83.2 |
Andre Williams | Boston College | 5-11 | 230 | 4.56 | 1.56 | 106.4 |
Damien Williams | Oklahoma | 5-11 | 222 | 4.45 | 1.57 | 113.2 |
Average | 216 | 4.60 | 1.59 | 97 | ||
Max | 271 | 4.95 | 1.72 | 113.2 | ||
Min | 173 | 4.26 | 1.46 | 80.2 |
Archer obviously helped himself with his 40, but he is going to be a scat-back/return guy in the NFL. The 10-yard split shows you hurt fast the guy accelerates (from a sprinters stance without pads). McKinnon really helped himself here. His 1.46s 10-yd split tied Archer for the best among RBs and he is 36 lbs heavier. The speed score factors in weight and 40 time - a 100 is supposed to be average. Williams from OK had the best speed score with McKinnon coming in a close second. Jerome Smith from Syracuse had the lowest speed score from this year's crop at 80.2. That's what happens when you run a 4.84s 40 and you are 220 lbs. Thomas from Oregon did not help himself here either - at 174 lbs, a 4.50s 40 is not going to get it done in the NFL. Thomas did look significantly better at his pro-day, running in the mid-to-high 4.3s (according to Walter Football).
Raw Power Numbers
Player | School | Height | Weight | Bench | Vert | Broad | Hand | EN |
Antonio Andrews | Western Kentucky | 5-10 | 225 | 20 | 29.5 | 106 | 9 1/2 | 58.3 |
Dri Archer | Kent State | 5-8 | 173 | 20 | 38.0 | 122 | 8 7/8 | 68.2 |
George Atkinson | Notre Dame | 6-1 | 218 | 19 | 38.0 | 121 | 9 3/8 | 67.1 |
Kapri Bibbs | Colorado State | 5-9 | 212 | 24 | 29.0 | 106 | 8 1/2 | 61.8 |
Alfred Blue | Louisiana State | 6-2 | 223 | 13 | 32.0 | 121 | 9 7/8 | 55.1 |
Ka'Deem Carey | Arizona | 5-9 | 207 | 19 | 32.5 | 115 | 9 1/2 | 61.1 |
J.C. Copeland | Louisiana State | 5-11 | 271 | 23 | 28.5 | 111 | 10 | 60.8 |
Tim Cornett | UNLV | 6-0 | 209 | DNP | 34.5 | 125 | 9 1/4 | |
Isaiah Crowell | Alabama State | 5-11 | 224 | 23 | 38.0 | 117 | 9 1/4 | 70.8 |
Timothy Flanders | Sam Houston State | 5-9 | 207 | 20 | 32.0 | 113 | 9 1/4 | 61.4 |
David Fluellen | Toledo | 5-11 | 224 | DNP | 36.5 | 120 | 9 1/8 | |
Devonta Freeman | Florida State | 5-8 | 206 | DNP | 31.5 | 118 | 9 5/8 | |
Tyler Gaffney | Stanford | 5-11 | 220 | DNP | 36.5 | 116 | 9 | |
Marion Grice | Arizona State | 6-0 | 208 | DNP | DNP | DNP | 9 1/4 | |
Ryan Hewitt | Stanford | 6-4 | 246 | DNP | 33.0 | 109 | 9 1/4 | |
Jeremy Hill | LSU | 6-0 | 233 | 20 | 29.0 | 113 | 10 3/8 | 58.4 |
Carlos Hyde | Ohio State | 5-11 | 230 | 19 | 34.5 | 114 | 9 5/8 | 63.0 |
Storm Johnson | Central Florida | 6-0 | 209 | 16 | 35.5 | 118 | 9 1/2 | 61.3 |
Henry Josey | Missouri | 5-8 | 194 | 20 | 34.5 | 118 | 9 1/2 | 64.3 |
Tre Mason | Auburn | 5-8 | 207 | DNP | 38.5 | 114 | 9 | |
Jerick McKinnon | Georgia Southern | 5-9 | 209 | 32 | 40.5 | 132 | 8 5/8 | 83.5 |
Trey Millard | Oklahoma | 6-2 | 247 | DNP | DNP | DNP | 9 1/8 | |
Adam Muema | San Diego State | 5-10 | 202 | DNP | DNP | DNP | 9 3/4 | |
Ladarius Perkins | Mississippi State | 5-7 | 195 | 23 | 35.5 | 124 | 9 5/8 | 68.8 |
Silas Redd | Southern California | 5-10 | 212 | 18 | 37.0 | 122 | 9 | 65.2 |
Bishop Sankey | Washington | 5-9 | 209 | 26 | 35.5 | 126 | 10 | 72.0 |
Lache Seastrunk | Baylor | 5-9 | 201 | 15 | 41.5 | 134 | 9 1/4 | 67.7 |
Charles Sims | West Virginia | 6-0 | 214 | 17 | 37.5 | 126 | 8 1/4 | 65.0 |
Jerome Smith | Syracuse | 5-11 | 220 | 14 | 36.0 | 118 | 9 3/4 | 59.8 |
Lorenzo Taliaferro | Coastal Carolina | 6-0 | 229 | 18 | 33.0 | 118 | 8 3/8 | 60.8 |
De'Anthony Thomas | Oregon | 5-8 | 174 | 8 | 32.0 | 124 | 8 1/8 | 50.3 |
Terrance West | Towson | 5-9 | 225 | 16 | 33.5 | 120 | 9 1/8 | 59.5 |
James White | Wisconsin | 5-9 | 204 | 23 | 32.0 | 114 | 8 1/4 | 64.5 |
James Wilder | Florida State | 6-3 | 232 | 18 | 35.0 | 121 | 9 3/4 | 63.1 |
Andre Williams | Boston College | 5-11 | 230 | DNP | 38.0 | 129 | 9 | |
Damien Williams | Oklahoma | 5-11 | 222 | 16 | 35.5 | 121 | 9 1/8 | 61.6 |
Average | 216 | 19.2 | 34.7 | 106 | 9.24 | 63.6 | ||
Max | 271 | 32 | 41.5 | 106 | 10.375 | 83.5 | ||
Min | 173 | 8 | 28.5 | 106 | 8.125 | 50.3 |
Looking at the power numbers, McKinnon also showed well here. I've listed hand size here, only because guys with smaller hands are more prone to fumble than guys with larger hands (others have done this research). Sims and White have Hillman-sized hands while Hill has some big ole mitts. The only other two guys to stand out in terms of explosion number (EN, a measure of raw power that combines bench, vertical and broad jump) were Sankey and Crowell.
Quickness data
Player | School | Height | Weight | 3-cone | 20-yd | LA | CoD | Quickness |
Antonio Andrews | Western Kentucky | 5-10 | 225 | 7.24 | 4.49 | 0.33 | 11.73 | 89.1 |
Dri Archer | Kent State | 5-8 | 173 | 6.86 | 4.06 | 0.20 | 10.92 | 91.2 |
George Atkinson | Notre Dame | 6-1 | 218 | 7.07 | 4.46 | 0.02 | 11.53 | 92.5 |
Kapri Bibbs | Colorado State | 5-9 | 212 | |||||
Alfred Blue | Louisiana State | 6-2 | 223 | 7.15 | 4.50 | 0.13 | 11.65 | 90.8 |
Ka'Deem Carey | Arizona | 5-9 | 207 | 7.08 | 4.38 | 0.32 | 11.46 | 90.0 |
J.C. Copeland | Louisiana State | 5-11 | 271 | 7.68 | 4.58 | 0.37 | 12.26 | 90.0 |
Tim Cornett | UNLV | 6-0 | 209 | 7.01 | 4.26 | 0.22 | 11.27 | 97.2 |
Isaiah Crowell | Alabama State | 5-11 | 224 | |||||
Timothy Flanders | Sam Houston State | 5-9 | 207 | 7.07 | ||||
David Fluellen | Toledo | 5-11 | 224 | 6.90 | ||||
Devonta Freeman | Florida State | 5-8 | 206 | 7.11 | 4.26 | 0.32 | 11.37 | 92.4 |
Tyler Gaffney | Stanford | 5-11 | 220 | 6.78 | 4.18 | 0.31 | 10.96 | 114.4 |
Marion Grice | Arizona State | 6-0 | 208 | |||||
Ryan Hewitt | Stanford | 6-4 | 246 | 7.04 | 4.35 | 0.52 | 11.39 | 109.6 |
Jeremy Hill | LSU | 6-0 | 233 | |||||
Carlos Hyde | Ohio State | 5-11 | 230 | |||||
Storm Johnson | Central Florida | 6-0 | 209 | |||||
Henry Josey | Missouri | 5-8 | 194 | 7.07 | 4.13 | 0.30 | 11.20 | 92.5 |
Tre Mason | Auburn | 5-8 | 207 | 4.15 | 0.35 | |||
Jerick McKinnon | Georgia Southern | 5-9 | 209 | 6.83 | 4.12 | 0.29 | 10.95 | 109.0 |
Trey Millard | Oklahoma | 6-2 | 247 | |||||
Adam Muema | San Diego State | 5-10 | 202 | |||||
Ladarius Perkins | Mississippi State | 5-7 | 195 | 7.08 | 4.30 | 0.16 | 11.38 | 87.2 |
Silas Redd | Southern California | 5-10 | 212 | |||||
Bishop Sankey | Washington | 5-9 | 209 | 6.75 | 4.00 | 0.49 | 10.75 | 117.4 |
Lache Seastrunk | Baylor | 5-9 | 201 | |||||
Charles Sims | West Virginia | 6-0 | 214 | 7.16 | 4.30 | 0.18 | 11.46 | 93.1 |
Jerome Smith | Syracuse | 5-11 | 220 | 7.53 | 4.60 | 0.24 | 12.13 | 76.2 |
Lorenzo Taliaferro | Coastal Carolina | 6-0 | 229 | 6.88 | 4.22 | 0.36 | 11.10 | 113.1 |
De'Anthony Thomas | Oregon | 5-8 | 174 | |||||
Terrance West | Towson | 5-9 | 225 | |||||
James White | Wisconsin | 5-9 | 204 | 7.05 | 4.20 | 0.37 | 11.25 | 95.5 |
James Wilder | Florida State | 6-3 | 232 | 6.92 | 4.24 | 0.62 | 11.16 | 112.2 |
Andre Williams | Boston College | 5-11 | 230 | 7.27 | 4.06 | 0.50 | 11.33 | 104.7 |
Damien Williams | Oklahoma | 5-11 | 222 | 7.37 | 4.25 | 0.20 | 11.62 | 91.3 |
Average | 216 | 7.08 | 4.28 | 0.31 | 11.37 | 97.6 | ||
Max | 271 | 7.68 | 4.60 | 0.62 | 12.26 | 117.4 | ||
Min | 173 | 6.75 | 4.00 | 0.02 | 10.75 | 76.2 |
LA, lateral agility, is simply your 40 time minus you 20-yd shuttle time. Some people like this, but it rewards guys who are quick but not fast disproportionally. I developed COD, change-of-direction, which is just a sum of the 20-yd shuttle and the 3-cone drill. This, IMO, is a better way to measure short area quickness and the ability to start, stop and redirect momentum. Anything below 11.00s for COD is good, the mid-10s range is exceptional. Treating the COD similarly to the 40 time (adjusted for body mass), you get what I call the Quickness score. Like the speed score, 100 is designed to be average. Sankey really showed well here as did Gaffney and Talliafero. Sankey's quickness score was the best of the group and only two guys have had better quickness scores (back to 2009) - Christine Michael and Roy Helu. On the flip-side Jerome Smith showed really poorly here. His 76.2 quickness score was third worst for a RB since I have been keeping track (back to 2009).
Beyond the Combine - 2013 Game Stats
Let's see what these guys can do with pads on. I'm going to focus on their final college season and look at some of the more in depth situational stats (goal-line and short yardage success rate,% of carries that resulted in a first down, long runs, etc.). I am going to show the larger school guys (data is much harder to access for the FCS guys), the guys who are not scat-back types (figuring we already have Hillman) and the guys who did average or better at the combine (overall). That still leaves us with 16 RBs to sort through.
George Atkinson | Kapri Bibbs | Ka'Deem Carey | Tim Cornett | Devonta Freeman | Tyler Gaffney | Marion Grice | Jeremy Hill | Carlos Hyde | Storm Johnson | Tre Mason | Bishop Sankey | Charles Sims | James White | Andre Williams | Damien Williams | |
2013 carries | 93 | 281 | 349 | 264 | 173 | 331 | 191 | 203 | 208 | 213 | 317 | 327 | 208 | 221 | 355 | 114 |
2013 yards | 555 | 1741 | 1885 | 1284 | 1016 | 1717 | 996 | 1401 | 1521 | 1139 | 1816 | 1870 | 1095 | 1444 | 2177 | 553 |
2013 ypc | 6.0 | 6.2 | 5.4 | 4.9 | 5.9 | 5.2 | 5.2 | 6.9 | 7.3 | 5.3 | 5.7 | 5.7 | 5.3 | 6.5 | 6.1 | 4.9 |
2013 rec | 7 | 8 | 26 | 30 | 22 | 15 | 50 | 18 | 16 | 30 | 12 | 28 | 45 | 39 | 0 | 9 |
2013 rec yds | 51 | 59 | 173 | 164 | 278 | 86 | 438 | 181 | 147 | 260 | 163 | 304 | 401 | 300 | 0 | 90 |
2013 ypr | 7.3 | 7.4 | 6.7 | 5.5 | 12.6 | 5.7 | 8.8 | 10.1 | 9.2 | 8.7 | 13.6 | 10.9 | 8.9 | 7.7 | 10.0 | |
runs of 10+ | 14 | 44 | 43 | 34 | 30 | 39 | 29 | 40 | 45 | 31 | 47 | 48 | 35 | 41 | 49 | 13 |
runs of 20+ | 3 | 16 | 15 | 10 | 10 | 10 | 9 | 12 | 12 | 10 | 10 | 21 | 10 | 14 | 26 | 2 |
Long run % | 18% | 21% | 17% | 17% | 23% | 15% | 20% | 26% | 27% | 19% | 18% | 21% | 22% | 25% | 21% | 13% |
Rushing 1st downs | 20 | 82 | 95 | 75 | 46 | 83 | 45 | 54 | 73 | 73 | 91 | 97 | 44 | 62 | 74 | 33 |
1st Down % | 22% | 29% | 27% | 28% | 27% | 25% | 24% | 27% | 35% | 34% | 29% | 30% | 21% | 28% | 21% | 29% |
RZ carries | 5 | 70 | 56 | 47 | 39 | 63 | 49 | 36 | 30 | 45 | 64 | 62 | 43 | 37 | 44 | 20 |
RZ yards | 21 | 273 | 189 | 165 | 139 | 220 | 135 | 135 | 148 | 143 | 325 | 226 | 95 | 100 | 174 | 71 |
RZ ypc | 4.2 | 3.9 | 3.4 | 3.5 | 3.6 | 3.5 | 2.8 | 3.8 | 4.9 | 3.2 | 5.1 | 3.6 | 2.2 | 2.7 | 4.0 | 3.6 |
RZ TDs | 1 | 22 | 16 | 10 | 13 | 17 | 13 | 10 | 12 | 12 | 20 | 16 | 7 | 10 | 7 | 6 |
RZ efficiency % | 20% | 31% | 29% | 21% | 33% | 27% | 27% | 28% | 40% | 27% | 31% | 26% | 16% | 27% | 16% | 30% |
3rd and 1-3 to go carries | 5 | 27 | 30 | 15 | 9 | 41 | 15 | 13 | 14 | 13 | 28 | 33 | 13 | 18 | 22 | 9 |
3rd and 1-3 1st downs | 2 | 23 | 23 | 11 | 7 | 29 | 9 | 12 | 9 | 10 | 24 | 27 | 7 | 10 | 12 | 8 |
3rd and short conversion % | 40% | 85% | 77% | 73% | 78% | 71% | 60% | 92% | 64% | 77% | 86% | 82% | 54% | 56% | 55% | 89% |
The key things to look for here are how often a back got the ball on 3rd and short, how well the got first downs on third and short, how often they got first downs on all of their carries, how effective they were on red zone carries, how often they were used in the passing game and how often they broke long runs. A few highlights are:
- Kapri Bibbs' and Tre Mason's ability to convert on 3rd and short
- Tyler Gaffney getting 41 carries on 3rd and short and converting 71% of them
- White, Hill and Hyde all having 25% or more of their carries go for 10 or more yards
- Sims and Grice' total number of catches last season
- Hydes RZ efficiency - 40% of his RZ carries went for a TD
- Hide and Johnson's first down per carry
- Sankey's 97 rushing first downs
- Hyde's 7.3 yards per carry in 2013
- only 13% of Damien Williams 2014 carries went for 10 or more yards - worst of the group. His number was similarly low in 2012 (14%).
So who do you like and where? I'll give the current projected draft round for the top 20 RBs
Mason, Hyde Carey - 2nd
Sankey, Hill - 2nd or 3rd
Sims, Freeman - 3rd
Seastrunk, West - 3rd or 4th
A. Williams - 4th
Gaffney, McKinnon - 4th or 5th
White - 5th
Johnson, Crowell - 5th or 6th
Wilder - 6th
Neal, Grice, Thomas - 6th or 7th
Every other back is currently projected as 7th or FA.