RBs in this draft - Do we need one and, if so, when should we take one?

At a simple level there are 3 kinds of RBs in the NFL

1. Featured back - good blend of speed and size, capable of playing all three downs, durable and not prone to fumbles
2. Bruiser - short-yardage and goal-line specialist, fills the niche that the FB used to fill, generally above average in pass protection because of size and strength
3. Scat-back - smaller quicker guys, capable of breaking off long runs (or runs after the catch), hopefully elusive, have to be able to catch the ball really well, also have to be able to pass block, bonus if they can be lined up at WR

KnoMo was our feature back last season. He was a prototype passing offense RB (good ball security, great blitz pickup and above average pass catcher). Ball would be classed more in the "running offense feature back" mold. He played at 235 lbs in college and has the power and quickness to gain the tough yards on 3rd or 4th and short. He filled the Bruiser spot for us as the year went on. Hillman was supposed to be the scat-back prototype. His current weight is at 195 lbs on the Broncos website. Anderson would be classed as a bruiser. He packs a great deal of muscle on his 5-9 frame and he has the power to gain tough yards if Ball is not available. Williams was a "feature back" in college, but at 203 lbs it doesn't look he would have the somatype to handle that role in the NFL. So it would appear that the broncos have the 3 main types covered, but there is one NFL-reality that we have to prepare for: RBs will get injured (more frequently than other positions). So we need someone who can step up and carry the load at RB if Ball goes down for any significant portion of time next year. So let's look to the draft to see if one of these guys will be THAT guy (unless you trust Hillman, Anderson or Williams to be do that - I don't).

There were 36 RBs invited to the NFL combine this year. Some guys greatly improved their draft stock, while others dramatically hurt theirs. Before we start the analysis keep in mind that guys over at draftmetrics.com have determined that only 4 combine numbers are meaningful for a RB: 40 time, vertical, board, 20-yd shuttle. The other combine numbers have a less than 60% correlation to a 5-yr career in the NFL.

Straight-line speed numbers

Player	School	Height	Weight	Off. 40 Time	10-Yd Split	Speed
Antonio Andrews	Western Kentucky	5-10	225	4.82	1.68	83.4
Dri Archer	Kent State	5-8	173	4.26	1.46	105.1
George Atkinson	Notre Dame	6-1	218	4.48	1.53	108.2
Kapri Bibbs	Colorado State	5-9	212	4.67	1.60	89.1
Alfred Blue	Louisiana State	6-2	223	4.63	1.56	97.1
Ka'Deem Carey	Arizona	5-9	207	4.70	1.59	84.8
J.C. Copeland	Louisiana State	5-11	271	4.95	1.72	90.3
Tim Cornett	UNLV	6-0	209	4.48	1.60	103.8
Isaiah Crowell	Alabama State	5-11	224	4.57	1.55	102.7
Timothy Flanders	Sam Houston State	5-9	207	4.75	1.68	81.3
David Fluellen	Toledo	5-11	224	4.72	1.66	90.3
Devonta Freeman	Florida State	5-8	206	4.58	1.59	93.6
Tyler Gaffney	Stanford	5-11	220	4.49	1.53	108.3
Marion Grice	Arizona State	6-0	208	DNP	DNP
Ryan Hewitt	Stanford	6-4	246	4.87	1.72	87.5
Jeremy Hill	LSU	6-0	233	4.66	1.56	98.8
Carlos Hyde	Ohio State	5-11	230	4.66	1.65	97.5
Storm Johnson	Central Florida	6-0	209	4.60	--	93.4
Henry Josey	Missouri	5-8	194	4.43	1.53	100.7
Tre Mason	Auburn	5-8	207	4.50	1.50	101.0
Jerick McKinnon	Georgia Southern	5-9	209	4.41	1.46	110.5
Trey Millard	Oklahoma	6-2	247	DNP	DNP
Adam Muema	San Diego State	5-10	202	DNP	DNP
Ladarius Perkins	Mississippi State	5-7	195	4.46	1.54	98.6
Silas Redd	Southern California	5-10	212	4.70	1.62	86.9
Bishop Sankey	Washington	5-9	209	4.49	1.59	102.8
Lache Seastrunk	Baylor	5-9	201	4.51	1.60	97.2
Charles Sims	West Virginia	6-0	214	4.48	1.56	106.3
Jerome Smith	Syracuse	5-11	220	4.84	1.62	80.2
Lorenzo Taliaferro	Coastal Carolina	6-0	229	4.58	1.63	104.1
De'Anthony Thomas	Oregon	5-8	174	4.50	1.57	84.9
Terrance West	Towson	5-9	225	4.54	1.59	105.9
James White	Wisconsin	5-9	204	4.57	1.57	93.5
James Wilder	Florida State	6-3	232	4.86	1.72	83.2
Andre Williams	Boston College	5-11	230	4.56	1.56	106.4
Damien Williams	Oklahoma	5-11	222	4.45	1.57	113.2
Average			216	4.60	1.59	97
Max			271	4.95	1.72	113.2
Min			173	4.26	1.46	80.2

Archer obviously helped himself with his 40, but he is going to be a scat-back/return guy in the NFL. The 10-yard split shows you hurt fast the guy accelerates (from a sprinters stance without pads). McKinnon really helped himself here. His 1.46s 10-yd split tied Archer for the best among RBs and he is 36 lbs heavier. The speed score factors in weight and 40 time - a 100 is supposed to be average. Williams from OK had the best speed score with McKinnon coming in a close second. Jerome Smith from Syracuse had the lowest speed score from this year's crop at 80.2. That's what happens when you run a 4.84s 40 and you are 220 lbs. Thomas from Oregon did not help himself here either - at 174 lbs, a 4.50s 40 is not going to get it done in the NFL. Thomas did look significantly better at his pro-day, running in the mid-to-high 4.3s (according to Walter Football).

Raw Power Numbers

Player	School	Height	Weight	Bench	Vert	Broad	Hand	EN
Antonio Andrews	Western Kentucky	5-10	225	20	29.5	106	9 1/2	58.3
Dri Archer	Kent State	5-8	173	20	38.0	122	8 7/8	68.2
George Atkinson	Notre Dame	6-1	218	19	38.0	121	9 3/8	67.1
Kapri Bibbs	Colorado State	5-9	212	24	29.0	106	8 1/2	61.8
Alfred Blue	Louisiana State	6-2	223	13	32.0	121	9 7/8	55.1
Ka'Deem Carey	Arizona	5-9	207	19	32.5	115	9 1/2	61.1
J.C. Copeland	Louisiana State	5-11	271	23	28.5	111	10	60.8
Tim Cornett	UNLV	6-0	209	DNP	34.5	125	9 1/4
Isaiah Crowell	Alabama State	5-11	224	23	38.0	117	9 1/4	70.8
Timothy Flanders	Sam Houston State	5-9	207	20	32.0	113	9 1/4	61.4
David Fluellen	Toledo	5-11	224	DNP	36.5	120	9 1/8
Devonta Freeman	Florida State	5-8	206	DNP	31.5	118	9 5/8
Tyler Gaffney	Stanford	5-11	220	DNP	36.5	116	9
Marion Grice	Arizona State	6-0	208	DNP	DNP	DNP	9 1/4
Ryan Hewitt	Stanford	6-4	246	DNP	33.0	109	9 1/4
Jeremy Hill	LSU	6-0	233	20	29.0	113	10 3/8	58.4
Carlos Hyde	Ohio State	5-11	230	19	34.5	114	9 5/8	63.0
Storm Johnson	Central Florida	6-0	209	16	35.5	118	9 1/2	61.3
Henry Josey	Missouri	5-8	194	20	34.5	118	9 1/2	64.3
Tre Mason	Auburn	5-8	207	DNP	38.5	114	9
Jerick McKinnon	Georgia Southern	5-9	209	32	40.5	132	8 5/8	83.5
Trey Millard	Oklahoma	6-2	247	DNP	DNP	DNP	9 1/8
Adam Muema	San Diego State	5-10	202	DNP	DNP	DNP	9 3/4
Ladarius Perkins	Mississippi State	5-7	195	23	35.5	124	9 5/8	68.8
Silas Redd	Southern California	5-10	212	18	37.0	122	9	65.2
Bishop Sankey	Washington	5-9	209	26	35.5	126	10	72.0
Lache Seastrunk	Baylor	5-9	201	15	41.5	134	9 1/4	67.7
Charles Sims	West Virginia	6-0	214	17	37.5	126	8 1/4	65.0
Jerome Smith	Syracuse	5-11	220	14	36.0	118	9 3/4	59.8
Lorenzo Taliaferro	Coastal Carolina	6-0	229	18	33.0	118	8 3/8	60.8
De'Anthony Thomas	Oregon	5-8	174	8	32.0	124	8 1/8	50.3
Terrance West	Towson	5-9	225	16	33.5	120	9 1/8	59.5
James White	Wisconsin	5-9	204	23	32.0	114	8 1/4	64.5
James Wilder	Florida State	6-3	232	18	35.0	121	9 3/4	63.1
Andre Williams	Boston College	5-11	230	DNP	38.0	129	9
Damien Williams	Oklahoma	5-11	222	16	35.5	121	9 1/8	61.6
Average			216	19.2	34.7	106	9.24	63.6
Max			271	32	41.5	106	10.375	83.5
Min			173	8	28.5	106	8.125	50.3

Looking at the power numbers, McKinnon also showed well here. I've listed hand size here, only because guys with smaller hands are more prone to fumble than guys with larger hands (others have done this research). Sims and White have Hillman-sized hands while Hill has some big ole mitts. The only other two guys to stand out in terms of explosion number (EN, a measure of raw power that combines bench, vertical and broad jump) were Sankey and Crowell.

Quickness data

Player	School	Height	Weight	3-cone	20-yd	LA	CoD	Quickness
Antonio Andrews	Western Kentucky	5-10	225	7.24	4.49	0.33	11.73	89.1
Dri Archer	Kent State	5-8	173	6.86	4.06	0.20	10.92	91.2
George Atkinson	Notre Dame	6-1	218	7.07	4.46	0.02	11.53	92.5
Kapri Bibbs	Colorado State	5-9	212
Alfred Blue	Louisiana State	6-2	223	7.15	4.50	0.13	11.65	90.8
Ka'Deem Carey	Arizona	5-9	207	7.08	4.38	0.32	11.46	90.0
J.C. Copeland	Louisiana State	5-11	271	7.68	4.58	0.37	12.26	90.0
Tim Cornett	UNLV	6-0	209	7.01	4.26	0.22	11.27	97.2
Isaiah Crowell	Alabama State	5-11	224
Timothy Flanders	Sam Houston State	5-9	207	7.07
David Fluellen	Toledo	5-11	224	6.90
Devonta Freeman	Florida State	5-8	206	7.11	4.26	0.32	11.37	92.4
Tyler Gaffney	Stanford	5-11	220	6.78	4.18	0.31	10.96	114.4
Marion Grice	Arizona State	6-0	208
Ryan Hewitt	Stanford	6-4	246	7.04	4.35	0.52	11.39	109.6
Jeremy Hill	LSU	6-0	233
Carlos Hyde	Ohio State	5-11	230
Storm Johnson	Central Florida	6-0	209
Henry Josey	Missouri	5-8	194	7.07	4.13	0.30	11.20	92.5
Tre Mason	Auburn	5-8	207		4.15	0.35
Jerick McKinnon	Georgia Southern	5-9	209	6.83	4.12	0.29	10.95	109.0
Trey Millard	Oklahoma	6-2	247
Adam Muema	San Diego State	5-10	202
Ladarius Perkins	Mississippi State	5-7	195	7.08	4.30	0.16	11.38	87.2
Silas Redd	Southern California	5-10	212
Bishop Sankey	Washington	5-9	209	6.75	4.00	0.49	10.75	117.4
Lache Seastrunk	Baylor	5-9	201
Charles Sims	West Virginia	6-0	214	7.16	4.30	0.18	11.46	93.1
Jerome Smith	Syracuse	5-11	220	7.53	4.60	0.24	12.13	76.2
Lorenzo Taliaferro	Coastal Carolina	6-0	229	6.88	4.22	0.36	11.10	113.1
De'Anthony Thomas	Oregon	5-8	174
Terrance West	Towson	5-9	225
James White	Wisconsin	5-9	204	7.05	4.20	0.37	11.25	95.5
James Wilder	Florida State	6-3	232	6.92	4.24	0.62	11.16	112.2
Andre Williams	Boston College	5-11	230	7.27	4.06	0.50	11.33	104.7
Damien Williams	Oklahoma	5-11	222	7.37	4.25	0.20	11.62	91.3
Average			216	7.08	4.28	0.31	11.37	97.6
Max			271	7.68	4.60	0.62	12.26	117.4
Min			173	6.75	4.00	0.02	10.75	76.2

LA, lateral agility, is simply your 40 time minus you 20-yd shuttle time. Some people like this, but it rewards guys who are quick but not fast disproportionally. I developed COD, change-of-direction, which is just a sum of the 20-yd shuttle and the 3-cone drill. This, IMO, is a better way to measure short area quickness and the ability to start, stop and redirect momentum. Anything below 11.00s for COD is good, the mid-10s range is exceptional. Treating the COD similarly to the 40 time (adjusted for body mass), you get what I call the Quickness score. Like the speed score, 100 is designed to be average. Sankey really showed well here as did Gaffney and Talliafero. Sankey's quickness score was the best of the group and only two guys have had better quickness scores (back to 2009) - Christine Michael and Roy Helu. On the flip-side Jerome Smith showed really poorly here. His 76.2 quickness score was third worst for a RB since I have been keeping track (back to 2009).

Beyond the Combine - 2013 Game Stats

Let's see what these guys can do with pads on. I'm going to focus on their final college season and look at some of the more in depth situational stats (goal-line and short yardage success rate,% of carries that resulted in a first down, long runs, etc.). I am going to show the larger school guys (data is much harder to access for the FCS guys), the guys who are not scat-back types (figuring we already have Hillman) and the guys who did average or better at the combine (overall). That still leaves us with 16 RBs to sort through.

	George Atkinson	Kapri Bibbs	Ka'Deem Carey	Tim Cornett	Devonta Freeman	Tyler Gaffney	Marion Grice	Jeremy Hill	Carlos Hyde	Storm Johnson	Tre Mason	Bishop Sankey	Charles Sims	James White	Andre Williams	Damien Williams
2013 carries	93	281	349	264	173	331	191	203	208	213	317	327	208	221	355	114
2013 yards	555	1741	1885	1284	1016	1717	996	1401	1521	1139	1816	1870	1095	1444	2177	553
2013 ypc	6.0	6.2	5.4	4.9	5.9	5.2	5.2	6.9	7.3	5.3	5.7	5.7	5.3	6.5	6.1	4.9
2013 rec	7	8	26	30	22	15	50	18	16	30	12	28	45	39	0	9
2013 rec yds	51	59	173	164	278	86	438	181	147	260	163	304	401	300	0	90
2013 ypr	7.3	7.4	6.7	5.5	12.6	5.7	8.8	10.1	9.2	8.7	13.6	10.9	8.9	7.7		10.0
runs of 10+	14	44	43	34	30	39	29	40	45	31	47	48	35	41	49	13
runs of 20+	3	16	15	10	10	10	9	12	12	10	10	21	10	14	26	2
Long run %	18%	21%	17%	17%	23%	15%	20%	26%	27%	19%	18%	21%	22%	25%	21%	13%
Rushing 1st downs	20	82	95	75	46	83	45	54	73	73	91	97	44	62	74	33
1st Down %	22%	29%	27%	28%	27%	25%	24%	27%	35%	34%	29%	30%	21%	28%	21%	29%
RZ carries	5	70	56	47	39	63	49	36	30	45	64	62	43	37	44	20
RZ yards	21	273	189	165	139	220	135	135	148	143	325	226	95	100	174	71
RZ ypc	4.2	3.9	3.4	3.5	3.6	3.5	2.8	3.8	4.9	3.2	5.1	3.6	2.2	2.7	4.0	3.6
RZ TDs	1	22	16	10	13	17	13	10	12	12	20	16	7	10	7	6
RZ efficiency %	20%	31%	29%	21%	33%	27%	27%	28%	40%	27%	31%	26%	16%	27%	16%	30%
3rd and 1-3 to go carries	5	27	30	15	9	41	15	13	14	13	28	33	13	18	22	9
3rd and 1-3 1st downs	2	23	23	11	7	29	9	12	9	10	24	27	7	10	12	8
3rd and short conversion %	40%	85%	77%	73%	78%	71%	60%	92%	64%	77%	86%	82%	54%	56%	55%	89%

The key things to look for here are how often a back got the ball on 3rd and short, how well the got first downs on third and short, how often they got first downs on all of their carries, how effective they were on red zone carries, how often they were used in the passing game and how often they broke long runs. A few highlights are:

1. Kapri Bibbs' and Tre Mason's ability to convert on 3rd and short
2. Tyler Gaffney getting 41 carries on 3rd and short and converting 71% of them
3. White, Hill and Hyde all having 25% or more of their carries go for 10 or more yards
4. Sims and Grice' total number of catches last season
5. Hydes RZ efficiency - 40% of his RZ carries went for a TD
6. Hide and Johnson's first down per carry
7. Sankey's 97 rushing first downs
8. Hyde's 7.3 yards per carry in 2013
9. only 13% of Damien Williams 2014 carries went for 10 or more yards - worst of the group. His number was similarly low in 2012 (14%).

So who do you like and where? I'll give the current projected draft round for the top 20 RBs

Mason, Hyde Carey - 2nd

Sankey, Hill - 2nd or 3rd

Sims, Freeman - 3rd

Seastrunk, West - 3rd or 4th

A. Williams - 4th

Gaffney, McKinnon - 4th or 5th

White - 5th

Johnson, Crowell - 5th or 6th

Wilder - 6th

Neal, Grice, Thomas - 6th or 7th

Every other back is currently projected as 7th or FA.