Not a single game has been played in the 2014 NFL season, yet PredictionMachine.com's "Predictalator" has already simulated the entire season (including playoffs) 50,000 times.
The Predictalator's Super Bowl prediction, you ask?
Well, the prediction machine has given the Denver Broncos the highest likelihood of any team to win the Super Bowl in 2014-2015, taking home the ultimate prize in 25.1% of the simulations. The machine not only predicts a Broncos victory in the Super Bowl, but it expects the victory to be even sweeter; the most likely Super Bowl scenario for 2014 involves the Broncos getting revenge on the Seahawks 52.9% of the time.
Before taking a deeper look into the predictions, PredictionMachine.com provides a description of how the Predictalator works:
"In general, we apply strength-of-schedule-adjusted, relevant statistics from every player's career (weighted more heavily on the most recent 16 games) to a fairly traditional player development curve that considers age and previous playing time. Not only does this development curve help to set average inputs, it combines with health history to dictate the variance ("boom or bust" potential) of a player's inputs."
Along with being named the #1 team in power rankings, the Broncos received the number one ranked offense, 11th ranked defense, and were given a 94.2% probability of making the 2014 playoffs with a season that involves playing nine 2013 playoff teams and seven projected 2014 playoff teams. According to the site, Peyton Manning and his weapons are the number one strength on the team, while the number one weakness is the defensive front seven (mainly due to injury concerns). Montee Ball is considered the most important offensive player, while Von Miller is cited as the most important defensive player on the team.
Projected to win their division and take the top seed in the AFC, the Broncos are then predicted to waltz past the Cincinnati Bengals 31-21 in the divisional round of the NFL Playoffs, followed by a 32-24 win over New England in the AFC Championship game, on their way to a 24-23 Super Bowl victory over the Seahawks.
Now, this is all based on probabilities and is obviously not going to be 100% accurate when it comes to predicting the entirety of the season; however, the Predictalator boasts a fairly solid track record, as reported by the site:
"Since launching in January 2010, this technology is over 60% against-the-spread with NFL Locks of the Week (52-32 ATS), 55% ATS (551-442 ATS) picking all NFL games, and over 60% ATS and Over/Under (50-33 ATS and O/U) with highlighted NFL picks all-time with greater than 60% confidence. Last season, picking every NFL game, the Predictalator hit 57.4% ATS, then went 9-1-1 (90% ATS) in the postseason. And finally, the Predictalator is now 35-9 against-the-spread in NFL playoff games."
It is no surprise that the Broncos are predicted to win the Super Bowl in 2014, despite their embarrassing loss in the big game in 2013. The Broncos have done nothing but add to the impressive roster that they already boasted, including the shoring up of some problem positions. TJ Ward has been added to a safety group that has been mediocre-at-best for a long while, Demarcus Ware and Von Miller appear to be poised to prey on opposing quarterbacks, and Aqib Talib brings a physicality and tenacity (along with Ward) to the defense that has been lacking in the past.
Montee Ball is listed by the site as the most important offensive player, which may surprise some, but he very well could be the X-factor on the offense this season. Other candidates for this distinction would be Peyton Manning (obviously), as well as Emmanuel Sanders, who will take on the task of replacing Eric Decker, or Ryan Clady, who vastly improves the offensive line when he is healthy.
Von Miller is a worthy candidate for the most important defensive player on the team. Von's ability to get to the quarterback is rivaled by few, and with the addition of Demarcus Ware, Miller should be able to have even more success than he has in the past. Other players who fit the bill for this distinction include Danny Trevathan (who will likely miss the first three games); Aqib Talib, who must replace DRC's impressive 2013 numbers and will be tasked with shutting down opposing teams' number one receivers each week; and finally T.J. Ward, who will be a big key to replacing Trevathan's presence on the defense and will play a key role all season.
The predictions that the Predictalator produced are nothing short of what the Broncos expect as a team, and what fans have come to expect for Denver this season. Winning the AFC West and earning a bye in the playoffs is almost taken for granted with this roster, and after a couple playoff wins against two talented teams, a vengeful Super Bowl victory would be the icing on the cake of the perfect season for the orange and blue.
So yes, this blog - which is run by computers, and read by people on their computers - thinks the computers are right.