Scouting the enemy: Denver Broncos vs. Seattle Seahawks

Seattle Seahawks Offense

- Ranked 14th in yards per game

- Ranked 25th in passing yards per game

- Ranked 4th in rushing yards per game

- Ranked 4th in points per game (28.5)

Summary:

Russell Wilson enters his 3rd season much in the same way he has spent his previous two - game manager. I know a lot of Seahawk fans will roll their eyes at that characterization, but that's what he is, and he's one of the best at it because he avoids negative plays and turnovers. In his 34-game regular season career, Wilson has had 19 career games without an interception. The reason I don't buy into the "elite" hype quite yet is simple, his numbers show a heavy dependence on other factors.

In 34 career regular season games, Russell Wilson has thrown for less than 200 yards 16 times (47.1%). His record? 11-5.

— Eatin' Greedy (@Bronco_Mike251) September 19, 2014

In 34 career regular season games, Russell Wilson has failed to complete at least 60% of his passes 11 times (32.4%). His record? 7-4

— Eatin' Greedy (@Bronco_Mike251) September 19, 2014

In 34 career regular season games, Russell Wilson has thrown at least 1 INT 15 times (44.1%). His record in those games? 7-8

— Eatin' Greedy (@Bronco_Mike251) September 19, 2014

The key? Get him to throw at least one pick then you have a 50/50 shot at winning LOL

— Eatin' Greedy (@Bronco_Mike251) September 19, 2014

Wilson has only had three multi-pick games in his career, so you're not going to get multiple mistakes from him all that often....BTW when he does throw multiple picks, his record is still 2-1. Wins for all these categories points to a good-all around team, but one that Russell Wilson certainly has not been asked to carry the weight of.

His line was supposed to be a big questionmark coming into the season. Wilson has been sacked twice but none of his lineman are credited with giving it up. That doesn't surprise me as Wilson is probably the most slippery QB in the NFL to take down. On the run blocking side of things C Max Unger is the cream of the crop with an overall grade of +5.4.  Right Guard JR Sweezy is the low man on the totem pole with an overall grade of -2.0.

Marshawn Lynch has done a fantastic job keeping the Seattle offense in favorable distances on 3rd down. On the season he is averaging 5.6 yards per carry. Lynch has done most of his damage off left guard where he is averaging 10.5 yards per carry. Overall, Seattle has struggled to gain yardage off right tackle and end.

Zach Miller is the full-time in-line TE who has played about 85-90% of the snaps on the season. He's not a huge receiving threat as he's only been targeted 5 times, but he is used in the playaction game on rollouts and bootlegs. When Seattle runs 2-TE sets (only about 30% of the time) Luke Willson comes in to the game. He's much like our Virgil Green--not a threat in the passing game.

Lord have mercy Percy has been used a variety of ways. He can play inside, outside, and perhaps his biggest contributions have come as a runner via the patented jet sweep. Percy was almost completely shut down last week with only one reception for 5 yards.

Doug Baldwin has been targeted 11 times with 6 catches and Jermaine Kearse has been targeted 7 times with 5 receptions.  Kearse has worked the right side of the field almost exclusively at all three levels while Baldsin has been used most extensively near the line of scrimmage and to the left side of the formation.

Denver Broncos Defense

- Ranked 28th in yards per game

- Ranked 31st in passing yards per game

- Ranked 10th in rushing yards per game

- Ranked 14th in points per game (20.5)

Derek Wolfe (LDE), DeMarcus Ware (RDE), Brandon Marshall (WILL), Nate Irving (MIKE), Von Miller (SAM), Aqib Talib (LCB), Chris Harris Jr. (RCB), Bradley Roby (SCB), Rahim Moore (FS), and TJ Ward (SS) are all new starters when compared to the lineup Seattle faced in the Super Bowl. Roby, Ward, Ware are all new acquisitions while the rest were playing different positions or on the bench with an injury. Suffice to say this is a completely new group.

Cover 3 has been a staple and new wrinkle thrown in by Jack Del Rio to mixed results. Overall the defense has given up a ton of yards and possession time while excelling in the redzone.  The Broncos have only allowed 50% TD conversion rate in the endzone this season (Seattle 71%).

Up front DeMarcus Ware has provided consistent pressure with 2 sacks, 3 hits, and 7 hurries in 85 pass rush snaps. Swingman Malik Jackson has also provided consistent pressure in the nickel defense from inside. As a group the D-line has accounted for 3 sacks, 6 hits, and 22 hurries. The linebacker squad led by Von Miller has matched the sack total at three.

In coverage, backup turned starter Brandon Marshall has been targeted 17 times and has allowed 12 receptions for 112 yards.  He has yet to give up a touchdown.

Von Miller has seemingly turned the page as a coverage LB. He's only allowed 1 reception on 20 drops.

In the secondary, Aqib Talib looks like a fantastic fit being able to switch seamlessly from zone to man. He's been targeted 12 times and has given up 5 receptions for 56 yards to go along with 2 PD.  Thus far, rookie Bradley Roby has been a nice addition to the slot despite allowing 13 receptions for 143 yards. He has great skills and even saved the game against Indy with a pass break-up on 4th down. If there is a weak link in the secondary--he is it, though I really wouldn't look to beat him exclusively.

Chris Harris Jr. has matched the excellent productivity of Aqib Talib with 3 PD and 5 receptions for 56 yards. Combined, Roby, Harris Jr., and Talib have yet to give up a touchdown.

When the Seahawks have the ball

11 personnel

POS	#	NAME	NAME	#	POS
QB	3	Wilson	Miller	58	Spy
RB	24	Lynch	Marshall	54	WLB
WR 1	89	Baldwin	Talib	21	CB
WR 2	15	Kearse	Harris Jr.	35	CB
SLOT	11	Harvin	Roby	29	SCB
TE	86	Miller	TJ Ward	43	SS/LB
LT	76	Okung	---	---	---
LG	77	Carpenter	Jackson	97	DT
C	60	Unger	Williams Knighton	92 98	DT
RG	64	Sweezy	Ware	68	DE
RT	68	Britt	Irving	56	LB
---	---	---	Moore	26	FS

Seattle should run a lot of 11 personnel. To combat it, the Broncos should unleash the 3-3-5 version of their nickel utilizing Von Miller as a spy on Russell Wilson. If Seattle runs this group extensively basically treating it like their base, you'll probably see Terrance Knighton in the middle at DT.

The Broncos can do a variety of things though and it depends on the matchups they want. I could easily see them going 4-2-5 with Miller off the edge. Against Cam Newton years ago, especially on 3rd down, they went 3-3-5 and allowed Von to spy.

Key Matchups

Justin Britt v. Ware/Miller

Max Unger v. Terrance Knighton

Percy Harvin v. Bradley Roby

21/12 personnel

POS	#	NAME	NAME	#	POS
QB	3	Wilson	Wolfe	95	DE
RB	24	Lynch	Knighton	98	DT
WR 1	89	Baldwin	Williams	92	DT
WR 2	11	Harvin	Ware	94	DE
TE	86	Miller	Miller	58	SLB
TE	82	Willson	Irving	56	MLB
LT	76	Okung	Marshall	54	WLB
LG	77	Carpenter	Talib	21	CB
C	60	Unger	Harris Jr.	25	CB
RG	64	Sweezy	Moore	26	FS
RT	68	Britt	Ward	43	SS

When Seattle goes with their 21 or 12 sets, expect the Broncos to combat it with their base "under" defense. Seattle utilizes playaction quite a bit and this is one of the ways they do it. When looking at their roster and the matchups, I believe Seattle is much more versatile from 11 personnel. You want the read-option and Marshawn Lynch against light box counts not to mention a spread out Broncos defense to open up passing lanes.

Denver Broncos Offense

- Ranked 15th in yards per game

- Ranked 11th in passing yards per game

- Ranked 24th in rushing yards per game

- Ranked 5th in points per game (27.5)

Peyton Manning is off to another great start. In fact he has a chance to set a milestone against Seattle. With a 3-touchdown performance, Manning would hit the 500 touchdown mark for his career. The issue is, the Seattle defense has not allowed a 3-TD passer on their home turf the past two seasons.  In order for the Bronco offense to succeed in moving the ball, Peyton has to be resolved to chip away at the defense. Small gains 3-5 yards at a time. Patience is the name of the game.  If you thought Peyton was getting the ball off fast last season, he is now below 2 seconds at 1.98 per throw. I don't care how good Seattle's pass rush is, they aren't getting to him that fast.

Running back Montee Ball showed some improvement last week but the Bronco running game overall remains largely ineffective. CH74 pointed out the use of Julius Thomas as the move TE/H-back and the renewed focus on cutting off backside pursuit as proof the Broncos running game is starting to turn the corner.  It is important to note that the Broncos do not neglect the running game, they use it quite effectively from heavy sets to set up playaction.

Julius Thomas was targeted early last week and I have to believe will be a focal point of the offense this week. Emmanuel Sanders logged the 1st 100 yard game of his career last week and has provided a reception of 40+ yards in each of the last two weeks. Someone who has gotten off to a slow start has been Demaryius Thomas. That will not last for long however. Last but certainly not least Wes Welker is back in action and fresh off some much needed rest following a preseason concussion.

As far as the line? Seattle is the entire reason they re-shuffled in the offseason. Thus far it has been to mixed results. The line has not given up much pressure, but then again Manning has helped out quite a bit with his quick decision making. This will be the first real test for the line as Seattle is capable of creating pressure from anywhere in their front 4.

Seattle Seahawks Defense

- Ranked 11th in yards per game

- Ranked 17th in passing yards per game

- Ranked 9th in rushing yards per game

- Ranked 19th in points per game (23.0)

San Diego had a long of 22 yards last week, so let's not pretend like this defense is defective or broken. It took a very good quarterback playing the game of his life to shred the Seattle secondary like he did. People might say the Chargers provided a blueprint, but the key was already there. With Seattle you have to sustain long drives and keep chipping away field position in small 3-5 yard chunks at a time.

Richard Sherman was not "exposed." Why Green Bay refused to target him week 1 is beyond my understanding. You have to challenge a defense at all levels otherwise your offense already begins at a disadvantage. What Keenan Allen proved was that precise route running and quickness off the LOS are paramount on gaining leverage against Sherman. Once a WR has leverage, they should win the duel. This week I would expect the Broncos to matchup Emmanuel Sanders on Richard Sherman quite frequently. Earl Thomas will usually cheat his deep responsibility to the side of the field opposite Sherman so there could be some one on one opportunities throughout the game.

It's all about protection.  Michael Bennett and Cliff Avril have combined for 3 sacks, 2 hits, and 14 hurries. They like to use a rotation of guys up front in nickel so it will be imperative for the Broncos to line up and run no-huddle to get them fatigued.

Cliff Avril absolutely brutalized Orlando Franklin in the Super Bowl. In fact he had done the same back when the Lions played our Broncos with Tim Tebow at the helm. That was Franklin's rookie season.  One of the key matchups will be Avril against Chris Clark.

When the Broncos have the ball

12 personnel

POS	#	NAME	NAME	#	POS
QB	18	Manning	Bennett	72	DE
RB	28	Ball	McDaniel	99	DT
WR 1	88	Thomas	Mebane	92	DT
WR 2	10	Sanders	Avril	56	DE
TE	80	J. Thomas	Smith	53	SLB
TE	85	Green	Wagner	54	MLB
LT	78	Clady	KJ Wright	50	WLB
LG	74	Franklin	Sherman	25	CB
C	66	Ramirez	Maxwell	41	CB
RG	65	Vasquez	Thomas	29	FS
RT	75	Clark	Chancellor	31	SS

There is a very good chance the Broncos will line up in a 2-TE set quite often on Sunday. If that's the case look for Virgil Green to impose his will as a blocker off the edge. It's the safest personnel package that will allow the Broncos to establish the running game early on. With Welker back this weekend 11 personnel will retake-it's place front and center as the preferred personnel package of choice.  As I stated before Seattle will use a variety of groupings up front including playing Bruce Irvin at DE a la Von Miller. On paper at least the interior Broncos line is improved from a season ago. Wes Welker should see a heavy diet of Jeremy Lane and Marcus Burley in the slot. Burley has been targeted 9 times and allowed 7 receptions for 55 yards and a touchdown.

Key Matchups

Cliff Avril vs. Chris Clark

KJ Wright vs. Julius Thomas

Byron Maxwell vs. Demaryius Thomas

Emmanuel Sanders vs. Richard Sherman

Wes Welker vs. Marcus Burley

Advantage/Disadvantage

When the Broncos pass the ball, advantage: Denver

I'm sorry folks, this is not Super Bowl 43. Peyton Manning looks better than ever. The offense has had an entire offseason to stew about getting owned on the biggest stage. Manning and Gase have had all that time to scheme and plan their attack. Taking nothing away from the vaunted Seattle secondary--who is 2nd to none, I think the Broncos are better prepared and dare I say more realistic about their expectations going in.

When the Broncos run the ball, advantage: Seattle

Seattle is far too physical up front to be pushed around and bullied in the running game. With the offensive line still coming together and Montee Ball trying to recover the preseason time he lost due to injury, this aspect of the Bronco offense still has a ways to go before it can be consistently productive.

When the Seahawks pass the ball, advantage: Denver

The secondary has stepped up and made big plays in big spots. The fault of the defense has been the inability to create a pass rush on 3rd downs which have allowed QB's to convert way too many long opportunities. This week that stops as I believe Del Rio will employ some blitz schemes to get the ball out of Russell Wilson's hand fast.

When the Seahawks run the ball, advantage: Seattle

Marshawn Lynch gets the tough yards other runners can't. Russell Wilson is quite possibly the most impressive athletic quarterback in the game today. He needs to be accounted for in the running game.

Prediction?

Broncos 24, Seahawks 23

The meaning of 24. Seattle is 1-4 the past two seasons when allowing 24 or more points. On the road that is a reasonable number for the Broncos offense to shoot for. In the end, if the game is this close, our defense is going to have to step up and get some stops where they have been unable to the past couple of weeks.

If the Broncos score 24 points and get Russell Wilson to throw a pick or two, they will win the game.

GO BRONCOS!!!