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The Denver Broncos entered the 2014 regular season as favorites to win the Super Bowl. After finishing 12-4 and with the 2nd seed in the AFC, that isn't the case entering the playoffs, as we'll soon discover.
Here are how a number of sites and sportsbooks see the Broncos' odds to take home the Lombardi Trophy for the 2015 Super Bowl, and a table showing how all the teams measure up based on these metrics combined.
FiveThirtyEight's Elo
FiveThirtyEight's Elo Rating is a metric that has grown on me. It's something I'll likely be incorporating in next season's Elevated Stats. In the meantime, they have Denver at 14%, less than half of Seattle's 35%.
#Broncos are 3rd in Super Bowl odds across the board, including @FiveThirtyEight's Elo. http://t.co/SmlMNHVxtv pic.twitter.com/HMgOuzOGMD
— MileHighReport (@MileHighReport) January 1, 2015
Football Outsiders' DVOA
We covered how the Seahawks overtook the Broncos in DVOA, but they (and the Patriots) have also overtaken the Broncos in Super Bowl odds, based on FO's DVOA playoff calculations. Broncos are 3rd with a 16% chance to win.
#Broncos are also 3rd in Super Bowl odds by @fboutsiders DVOA http://t.co/KtraJoutwE pic.twitter.com/xpIQskyNdJ
— MileHighReport (@MileHighReport) January 1, 2015
Online sportsbooks
Denver is currently enjoying 6/1 Super Bowl odds, according to online sportsbook Bovada.lv, good for third in the 12-team playoff picture. The teams ahead of the Broncos are the Seattle Sehakaws (12/5 odds) and the New England Patriots (3/1).
Finally #Broncos are 3rd in Super Bowl odds according to Vegas/online sportsbooks (sometimes tied with #Packers) pic.twitter.com/Ge0I7WNZ8J
— MileHighReport (@MileHighReport) January 1, 2015
This calculates to a 14.29% chance to win (I use this method in the table below).
Combined Super Bowl odds
Combining (averaging) these three percentage values leaves the Broncos with a 14.8% chance to win Super Bowl XLIX.
Note: this table is sortable. Click on a heading to sort.
| 2015 Super Bowl odds |
||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Team | Elo odds | DVOA odds | Vegas odds | Average |
| Seattle Seahawks | 35.0% | 26.2% | 29.4% | 30.2% |
| New England Patriots | 22.0% | 23.0% | 25% | 23.3% |
| Denver Broncos | 14.0% | 16.0% | 14.3% | 14.8% |
| Green Bay Packers | 10% | 15.7% | 14.3% | 13.3% |
| Dallas Cowboys | 5% | 6.6% | 10.5% | 7.4% |
| Pittsburgh Steelers | 4% | 3.9% | 6.7% | 4.9% |
| Baltimore Ravens | 2% | 3.5% | 2.4% | 2.6% |
| Indianapolis Colts | 2% | 1.8% | 3.4% | 2.4% |
| Cincinnati Bengals | 2% | 1% | 2.4% | 1.8% |
| Carolina Panthers | 1% | 0.9% | 2.4% | 1.4% |
| Detroit Lions | 1% | 0.7% | 2.4% | 1.4% |
| Arizona Cardinals | 2% | 0.6% | 1.5% | 1.4% |
The bright side: the past two years, the Broncos entered the playoffs as heavy Super Bowl favorites from many sites, and it didn't make any difference in the end. How do you feel about the Broncos' chances?