A peek over at numberFire's Week 4 power rankings shows the Denver Broncos have the highest probability of making the playoffs of any team in the NFL at 92.46% and the second highest probability of making it to the Super Bowl at 12.8%.
We also got their full projections for the Broncos heading into Week 5:
Projected Record: 11.469899999999999 - 4.5301 (Change: -0.13 wins, 0.13 losses)
Playoffs: 92.46% (Change: 0.06%)
AFC West: 85.26% (Change: -1.28%)
Conference Championship: 25.08% (Change: -4.58%)
Super Bowl: 12.26% (Change: -1.88%)
Power Rankings: 3 (Last Week: 4)
Those probabilities are obviously spearheaded by the incredible defensive play through the first quarter of the season, having the best overall rating for pass defense and overall defense in the NFL. The caveat is that the Broncos offense is the only Top 12 team with a negative offensive ranking through four games, but they are trending in the right direction finally.
The next closest AFC West opponent to show up on their nERD rankings is the Kansas City Chiefs, so that is definitely worth noting given how badly the Chiefs have started the season. The Oakland Raiders are 30th, so it appears their 2-2 record belies their true nature. Meanwhile, the San Diego Chargers are right on the Chiefs tail and they could be the more dangerous team down the stretch.
For now, the Broncos are definitely the class of the AFC West once again.