The rest of the 4th Down Story - Kubiak plays Foxball?

In my last article we saw that Gary Kubiak and John Fox are not that different as head coaches when it comes to the decision of what to do on 4th and goal from the 1 or 2. What about other 4th down situations as a whole? How did Kubiak treat those? Does the punter already have one foot on the field before Kubiak makes his decision, or is the quarterback ready to convert a 4th and short? I set out to investigate.

All data is from pro-football-reference, and it's all regular season data in this analysis. Their database only goes back to the 1998 season.

I'm going to break it down the 4th down data by field position using three sections of the field:

1. Desperation zone (from your own 1 to your own 45). Only teams who are desperate normally go for it on 4th down this far in their own territory (fake punts being an exception). In the past 17 season the Broncos have only gone for it in this area 6 times during some point in the game that WASN'T the 4th quarter. Two of those were fake punts (David Bruton in 2014 and a Britton Colquitt incomplete pass in 2011), two were 4th and 1 (both runs under Shanny - both converted). One was in the blowout in 2011 by the Lions (we were down 24-3 with 5 seconds left in the first half on our own 28, so Foxy was desperate at that point). The last one was a toss-up kind of situation. We were down 17-14 with 2 seconds left in the first half against the Bengals.  Mike Shanahan chose to go for it on 4th and 8 from our own 42, but instead of trying a heave to the end-zone (Jay Cutler has the arm for that), we tried a hook-and-lateral play where Rod Smith flubbed the pitch.

2. Decision zone (from your own 46 to the opponent's 40). This is the zone where a handful of coaches in the NFL have started to go for it. Here you are either out of FG range or you are on the very edge of your kicker's range. Additionally the yardage gain on a punt if a touchback occurs can be minimal. Last season the Broncos had 17 4th down situations in this are of the field and we went for it 4 times.    We converted on two of those 4 4th downs. We were losing at that point in 3 of those 4 games (MIA, NE and STL) - all 4 occurred in separate games.

3. FG zone (from the opponents 39 to the goalline). Decisions to go for it in this zone are rife with second-guessing, but the assumption (often wrong) is that you are "giving away" three points if you go for it and get stopped. We had 37 4th downs in this area of the field last season. We chose to punt once (@KC), we tried 28 FGs and we went for it 8 times (converting on 3). Interestingly all 3 conversion came in wins, while all five failures happened in losses.

Desperation Zone 4th Downs 1998-2014

		Play Results		Play Types
Tm	Plays	TD	1st	Pass	Rush	Punt	GFI%	Success%
NOR	915	1	52	33	35	847	7.4%	76.5%
STL	966	0	35	46	20	900	6.8%	53.0%
DET	1032	0	34	52	18	962	6.8%	48.6%
WAS	1025	0	33	45	21	959	6.4%	50.0%
JAX	987	2	37	39	21	927	6.1%	61.7%
HOU	789	0	30	23	24	742	6.0%	63.8%
KAN	993	1	34	44	15	934	5.9%	57.6%
NYJ	964	0	40	37	20	907	5.9%	70.2%
CLE	1060	0	35	40	22	998	5.8%	56.5%
BUF	1001	0	40	37	21	943	5.8%	69.0%
MIA	990	0	36	39	15	936	5.5%	66.7%
ATL	923	0	32	36	13	874	5.3%	65.3%
OAK	1043	1	41	38	15	990	5.1%	77.4%
CHI	1090	0	32	38	17	1035	5.0%	58.2%
SFO	1055	2	31	35	16	1004	4.8%	60.8%
DEN	921	0	22	34	10	877	4.8%	50.0%
NWE	888	0	24	28	14	846	4.7%	57.1%
PIT	929	2	31	28	15	886	4.6%	72.1%
TEN	1003	0	35	28	18	957	4.6%	76.1%
MIN	940	0	35	25	17	898	4.5%	83.3%
ARI	1057	0	28	28	19	1010	4.4%	59.6%
TAM	1050	0	28	37	8	1005	4.3%	62.2%
BAL	1070	0	29	31	13	1026	4.1%	65.9%
IND	808	0	28	25	8	775	4.1%	84.8%
CAR	1022	0	26	33	8	981	4.0%	63.4%
SEA	1000	1	20	23	17	960	4.0%	50.0%
NYG	971	1	23	21	16	934	3.8%	62.2%
CIN	978	0	27	18	19	941	3.8%	73.0%
PHI	1045	1	28	23	14	1008	3.5%	75.7%
SDG	890	2	25	18	13	859	3.5%	80.6%
DAL	919	0	22	23	9	887	3.5%	68.8%
GNB	906	1	22	17	9	880	2.9%	84.6%
Totals	31230	15	995	1022	520	29688
Pct		0.0480%	3.20%	3.30%	1.70%	95.10%	4.9%	64.5%

Because of the risk involved (giving the other team great field position if you get stopped), only about 1 in 20 4th downs in this zone doesn't lead to a punt. The vast majority of the go-for-it decisions in this zone occurred in the 4th quarter (when losing teams become desperate). The only real take-away from this table is that the most risk-averse team (GB) went for it less than half as frequently as the most risk-taking team (NO).  Interestingly, the Broncos have one of the worst records at converting on 4th down in this zone in the past 17 season (50%). Only the Lions were worse. The three best teams at converting on 4th down in the desperation zone are three of the teams that have had to attempt to do so the least (GB, SD and IND).

Comparing the Broncos under Fox and the Texans under Kubiak we see that Fox was extremely conservative in the desperation zone

Desperation Zone 4th downs Head Coach Comparative

			Play Types
	Plays	1st Down?	Pass	Rush	Punt	GFI%	Success%
HOU under Kubes	432	16	12	11	409	5.3%	70%
DEN under Fox	234	1	3	1	230	1.7%	25%

Admittedly the Broncos under Fox in his final three seasons were rarely in desperation mode, but his GFI% of 1.7 is lower than the lowest franchise value over the past 17 seasons.  Kubiak was much more willing to go for it on 4th down in the desperation zone during his previous head coaching tenure. Two of the times that the Texans "went for it" were punt screw-ups (bad snap and fumbled snap). On the 21 times that Kubes had the Texans got for it in the desperation zone, 10 of them were on 4th and 1 (9 of those were converted). Interestingly, 5 of those 10 attempts on 4th and 1 in the desperation zone were NOT in the 4th quarter. Going for it on 4th and 1 in this zone of the field in the first half is gutsy unless you are down big at that point and even then most coaches would still punt.

Decision Zone

This is a little bit more interesting, because head coaches are much more willing to go for it when there is less risk involved (thanks, Captain Obvious). Another factor here is that head coaches with "big-leg" kickers generally are more willing to try a FG from 53 or longer. FYI - add 17 to the field position to figure out the FG distance, so if the ball is on the 39 that would be a 56 yard FG attempt. To that end I have included a number which is the % of the time that each team has decided to try a long FG on 4th down in this zone (long FG try % = LFGT%). The NFL average success rate on all field goals last season was 84%. The 2014 average NFL success rate on 50+ yard FGs was 61%. Keep that in mind when you look at the 4th down conversion success rate. There were only 5 FG attempts from 60 or more last season and all missed (two from 60, one from 64 and and from 68). FWIW, there have only been 57 FG attempts from 60 or more in the past 17 seasons. Only 10 of those 57 were good (16.9%). There were 5 attempts from 60 plus last season - two were blocked and the other three missed. So FG accuracy from 50-59? >> accuracy 60+.

Decision Zone 4th Downs 1998-2014

		Play Results			Play Types
Tm	Plays	TD	FG	1st	Pass	Rush	Punt	FG	GFI%	Success%	LFGT%
NOR	377	0	7	45	56	37	274	10	24.7%	48.4%	2.7%
JAX	474	4	14	53	68	45	344	17	23.8%	50.4%	3.6%
TEN	470	3	9	46	61	40	357	12	21.5%	48.5%	2.6%
CIN	451	2	6	52	55	41	344	11	21.3%	56.3%	2.4%
MIN	416	1	15	47	64	24	304	24	21.2%	54.5%	5.8%
DET	478	5	14	54	78	21	356	23	20.7%	59.6%	4.8%
WAS	478	2	6	52	72	27	368	11	20.7%	54.5%	2.3%
BUF	434	1	8	40	61	27	335	11	20.3%	46.6%	2.5%
SFO	426	1	10	51	56	29	324	17	20.0%	61.2%	4.0%
PIT	426	2	3	42	46	37	336	7	19.5%	53.0%	1.6%
NWE	450	0	7	52	40	47	352	11	19.3%	59.8%	2.4%
DEN	425	1	16	38	52	30	316	27	19.3%	47.6%	6.4%
STL	426	2	20	42	55	26	314	31	19.0%	54.3%	7.3%
OAK	455	3	19	43	53	32	336	34	18.7%	54.1%	7.5%
GNB	406	6	14	45	51	24	304	27	18.5%	68.0%	6.7%
CHI	485	1	10	41	54	35	382	14	18.4%	47.2%	2.9%
PHI	474	3	3	44	51	35	377	11	18.1%	54.7%	2.3%
CLE	487	1	7	45	58	27	389	13	17.5%	54.1%	2.7%
KAN	443	2	5	42	39	38	357	9	17.4%	57.1%	2.0%
ARI	472	3	8	44	55	27	372	18	17.4%	57.3%	3.8%
DAL	429	1	6	37	47	27	345	10	17.2%	51.4%	2.3%
IND	419	0	4	45	34	38	336	11	17.2%	62.5%	2.6%
NYG	446	0	3	30	47	29	364	6	17.0%	39.5%	1.3%
HOU	366	0	12	29	35	26	287	18	16.7%	47.5%	4.9%
TAM	463	0	15	40	47	30	361	25	16.6%	51.9%	5.4%
SEA	469	2	7	39	38	36	382	13	15.8%	55.4%	2.8%
MIA	471	1	11	41	41	32	371	27	15.5%	57.5%	5.7%
ATL	413	0	6	32	42	22	337	12	15.5%	50.0%	2.9%
CAR	442	3	14	44	42	26	351	23	15.4%	69.1%	5.2%
NYJ	458	1	9	29	40	26	378	14	14.4%	45.5%	3.1%
BAL	532	1	8	37	51	21	443	17	13.5%	52.8%	3.2%
SDG	384	1	6	24	30	12	329	13	10.9%	59.5%	3.4%
Totals	14245	53	302	1345	1619	974	11125	527
Pct		0.40%	2.10%	9.40%	11.40%	6.80%	78.10%	3.70%	18.2%	53.9%	3.7%

Note that the team with the highest LFGT% over the past 17 seasons, OAK, has had one of the strongest legged kickers in the NFL for many of those seasons. Sebastion Janikowski owns the record for longest FG attempt in NFL history - 76 yards. Oakland has generally had a difficult time putting points on the board so they are more apt to let the fatboy try a long FG attempt. Janikowski is 2 of 9 on FG attempts from 60 or more, but that's better than average. Over the past 17 seasons, the Broncos have gone for it in the decision zone a little bit more than average.

Decision Zone Comparing Fox, Kubiak and Shanny (98-08)

		Play Results			Play Types
	Plays	TD	FG	1st	Pass	Rush	Punt	FG	GFI%	Success%	LFGT%
HOU under Kubes	150	0	0	10	11	6	132	1	11.3%	59%	0.7%
DEN under Fox	77	0	1	5	6	3	67	1	11.7%	56%	1.3%
DEN under Shanahan (98-08)	188	0	0	14	20	12	154	2	17.0%	44%	1.1%

Notice that, despite playing half of our games at elevation, Both Fox and Mike Shanahan were generally not going to attempt long (53 or greater) field goals (Shanny may have been more willing in his three seasons as our head coach prior to 98). The league average for going for it on 4th down (GFI%) in this zone over the past 17 seasons was 18.2%. Shanny was close to average in his last 11 years as head coach here. Kubes in HOU and FOX in DEN were both ultra-conservative in this part of the field, choosing almost always to punt instead of going for it or trying a long field goal. Our success rate when Shanny did opt to go for it on 4th down in the decision zone was poor relative to the rest of the league during this whole time period (44% conversion).

The Field Goal Zone

From the opponents 39 or closer the head coach must decided whether to kick a FG or go for it on 4th down. While head coaches do opt to punt from this close, it is infrequent (see the table below). When evaluating the numbers above keep in mind three things:

1. For the past 4 seasons, the success rate on 50+ yard FGs has been above 60%
2. The success rate on 40-49 yard FGs has been increasing gradually to the point where it hit an all-time high in 2013 - 83.0%
3. For the past 9 seasons, the success rate on 30-39 yard FGs has been hovering around 90% - so if you are in the red zone getting 3 points is almost a given as long as you don't turn the ball over.

FG zone 4th Downs 1998-2014

		Play Results			Play Types
Tm	Plays	TD	FG	1st	Pass	Rush	Punt	FG	Punt%	GFI%	Success%
JAX	673	19	342	95	110	88	47	428	7.0%	29.4%	57.6%
NWE	712	27	400	113	91	101	56	464	7.9%	27.0%	72.9%
CIN	649	12	344	75	104	67	52	426	8.0%	26.3%	50.9%
BUF	688	23	365	80	110	66	63	449	9.2%	25.6%	58.5%
CHI	670	17	353	81	97	71	62	440	9.3%	25.1%	58.3%
NOR	595	14	336	57	90	59	33	413	5.5%	25.0%	47.7%
STL	655	27	374	84	91	69	43	452	6.6%	24.4%	69.4%
MIN	601	23	331	71	87	59	54	401	9.0%	24.3%	64.4%
DAL	625	27	329	70	74	77	53	421	8.5%	24.2%	64.2%
TEN	669	26	367	72	105	56	78	430	11.7%	24.1%	60.9%
ARI	634	24	351	66	100	51	62	421	9.8%	23.8%	59.6%
NYG	661	15	360	64	97	59	72	433	10.9%	23.6%	50.6%
DET	643	26	364	64	106	45	54	438	8.4%	23.5%	59.6%
KAN	610	21	323	70	85	58	62	405	10.2%	23.4%	63.6%
HOU	523	14	301	75	55	67	38	363	7.3%	23.3%	73.0%
ATL	648	25	369	77	87	64	52	445	8.0%	23.3%	67.5%
SFO	644	16	365	78	91	58	44	451	6.8%	23.1%	63.1%
OAK	616	22	367	69	80	58	30	448	4.9%	22.4%	65.9%
CLE	600	14	340	66	92	42	60	406	10.0%	22.3%	59.7%
DEN	664	20	390	73	78	67	51	468	7.7%	21.8%	64.1%
TAM	663	17	357	64	80	64	77	442	11.6%	21.7%	56.3%
SEA	654	12	375	66	72	69	66	447	10.1%	21.6%	55.3%
NYJ	693	16	379	69	82	67	75	469	10.8%	21.5%	57.0%
WAS	639	18	341	57	91	44	58	446	9.1%	21.1%	55.6%
CAR	603	18	361	58	70	57	47	429	7.8%	21.1%	59.8%
PIT	689	18	387	69	68	74	74	473	10.7%	20.6%	61.3%
SDG	629	16	375	62	74	54	52	449	8.3%	20.3%	60.9%
MIA	660	13	389	66	68	61	52	479	7.9%	19.5%	61.2%
GNB	652	14	384	56	85	41	50	476	7.7%	19.3%	55.6%
PHI	638	11	398	72	64	57	46	471	7.2%	19.0%	68.6%
BAL	709	13	431	62	74	52	82	501	11.6%	17.8%	59.5%
IND	572	19	374	56	52	48	40	432	7.0%	17.5%	75.0%
Totals	20581	597	11622	2257	2710	1970	1785	14116
Pct		2.90%	56.50%	11%	13.20%	9.60%	8.70%	68.60%	8.7%	22.7%	61.0%

Here's a coincidence that I could not have scripted if I chose to - the success rate on all 4th down tries in the FG zone over the past 17 seasons, is exactly the same as the FG accuracy last season from 50-59 yards - 61.0%. (The accuracy on FGs from 60+ last season was 0%). Two of the best teams at converting on 4th down in the FG zone during this time period are the Colts (mostly with Peyton Manning) and the Texans (7 of the 17 seasons with Kubes as their head coach). I don't think that it is a coincidence that the franchise with the lowest GFI% in the FG zone also owns the highest 4th down conversion rate. Belicheck might have figured something out as well since he not only opts to go for it at one of the highest rates in the NFL in the FG zone, but the Patriots also have the second best conversion rate when they do go for it on 4th down in the FG zone.

Overall I was surprised to see how often punts occur in the this zone. Punting from inside the opponents' 40 is the kind of folly that defines ultra-conservative coaching.

FG Zone Comparing Fox, Kubes and Shanny

	Plays	TD	FG	1st	Pass	Rush	Punt	FG	Punt%	GFI%	Success%
HOU under Kubes	334	6	197	44	34	43	23	234	6.9%	23.1%	57%
DEN under Fox	139	5	90	16	17	10	6	106	4.3%	19.4%	59%
DEN under Shanahan (98-08)	443	13	250	50	51	47	39	306	8.8%	22.1%	51%

I was not expecting Fox to be the least conservative in this zone - in terms of punting - but he was. Fox did follow his "script" by having the lowest GFI%. I was really surprised to see how often Shanny had the Broncos punt from this close (opponent's 39 or closer) - almost 4 times per season.  Even more disgusting is that of those 39 punts, more than a quarter (11) resulted in touchbacks (What were you thinking, Mike?). Shanny once had the Broncos punt from the opponent's 31 (in 04 against TAM). Maybe Elam was hurt? Fox never had the Broncos punt from closer than the 38. Kubes worst 4th down decision in the FG zone was calling for a punt from the 34 against CAR in 07.

Now that Kubes is calling the shots in Denver, I would like to see that punt% be at least equivalent to the 4.3% that Foxy had while here. Considering that the league average for punting in the FG zone over the past 17 seasons is 8.7%, expecting Kubes to be equivalent to Fox is not a big ask. That being said, the Texans only punted in the FG zone 38 times in 17 seasons, but 23 of those times occurred in the 8 years when Kubes was head coach.  So maybe we have to hope that history is not predictive in this case. It will be interesting going forward, because Kubes should have an offense that is as potent as the one he presided over during his time as our OC. Having confidence in your offense' ability to gain two yards on 4th and 1 from the opponent's 20 probably makes it much easier to got for it regardless of the score at that point.