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Our 2015 passing offense - how much does the past inform the future?

To know where we are going, we need to know where we have been and we also need to look at what Kubes did as the OC in Baltimore last season.

Virgil Green catches his first career TD
Virgil Green catches his first career TD
Isaiah J. Downing-USA TODAY Sports

Since we have had Manning at QB our passing offense has been our major weapon that we have used to move the ball and to score. In the past three seasons our offense has scored 135 TDs through the air and 46 on the ground (roughly 3:1). While this ratio had been going up slowly over the past twenty NFL seasons, the entire league over the past three seasons has almost exactly a 2.0:1.0 ratio (2368:1191). Since we have had the same QB, but different receivers, let's look at who Manning has chosen to throw to over the past three years (excluding guys with 10 or fewer targets) through the lens of three stats:

1. YAC% = (yards after the catch)/(total receiving yards). Our offense has been predicated on a lot of YAC

2.  Catch% = (receptions)/(targets). The guys with the highest catch % are generally the guys that Manning has confidence in because he knows they have the best chance of catching the ball if he throws it to them.

3. 1DN% = (receiving first downs)/(receptions). This number will be lower for guys who catch short balls on 1st and 2nd own, but generally you want the guys with the higher numbers here because the have the ability to move the chains on 1st, 2nd AND 3rd down.

Broncos Receiving Stats 2014

To refresh your memory here are stats that our receivers put up last season (all data is from pro-football-reference.com unless otherwise stated).

NAME REC TAR YDS AVG TD LONG 20+ 1DN YAC% Catch% 1DN%
Demaryius Thomas 111 184 1619 14.6 11 86 25 69 40.0% 60.3% 62.2%
Emmanuel Sanders 101 141 1404 13.9 9 48 24 69 26.4% 71.6% 68.3%
Julius Thomas 43 60 489 11.4 12 35 7 30 37.0% 71.7% 69.8%
Wes Welker 49 64 464 9.5 2 39 5 24 36.6% 76.6% 49.0%
C.J. Anderson 34 44 324 9.5 2 51 4 13 84.3% 77.3% 38.2%
Ronnie Hillman 21 34 139 6.6 1 16 0 6 78.4% 61.8% 28.6%
Jacob Tamme 14 28 109 7.8 2 26 1 4 22.9% 50.0% 28.6%
Virgil Green 6 6 74 12.3 1 38 1 5 32.4% 100.0% 83.3%
Montee Ball 9 13 62 6.9 0 16 0 2 85.5% 69.2% 22.2%
Andre Caldwell 5 15 47 9.4 0 15 0 4 36.2% 33.3% 80.0%
Juwan Thompson 4 7 25 6.3 0 14 0 0 84.0% 57.1% 0.0%
Cody Latimer 2 4 23 11.5 0 14 0 1 52.2% 50.0% 50.0%
Totals 399 607 4779 12 40 86 67 227 39.8% 65.7% 56.9%

Keep in mind that RBs generally have YAC% that is significantly greater than WRs or TEs. So we see from above that DT and ES combined for 61% of the receiving first downs that we gained last season.  WW had the best catch% last season while Caldwell's was one of the worst in the league. The 12 TD catches from JT are going to be difficult to replace, particularly if you look specifically at red zone targets below (RZ data from NFLsavant.com)

Name Team Pos. Completions Targets Comp % TDs Target %
Thomas, Demaryius DEN WR 18 40 45 6 33.6
Sanders, Emmanuel DEN WR 17 25 68 6 21.0
Thomas, Julius DEN TE 13 15 86.7 9 12.6
Welker, Wes DEN WR 6 10 60 1 8.4
Tamme, Jacob DEN TE 5 9 55.6 1 7.6
Hillman, Ronnie DEN RB 5 9 55.5 1 7.6
Anderson, C.J. DEN RB 7 7 100 1 5.9
Ball, Montee DEN RB 1 2 50 0 1.7
Green, Virgil DEN TE 1 1 100 1 0.8
Caldwell, Andre DEN WR 1 1 100 0 0.8

JT only got 13% of the RZ targets (15) but he caught 13 of those targets leading to 9 TDs. One of our TEs will need to prove to Peyton that he can be this type of a weapon in the redzone for our offense to as effective at scoring in the red zone next season.

Three Season Aggregate Receiving Numbers

So who has PFM had the confidence in over the past three years - noting that we don't have many guys who got targets in all three seasons - see below. Only stats accumulated with the Broncos shown

2014 2013 2012
YAC% Catch% 1DN% YAC% Catch% 1DN% YAC% Catch% 1DN%
Demaryius Thomas 40.0% 60.3% 62.2% 49.2% 64.3% 71.7% 37.5% 66.7% 63.8%
Emmanuel Sanders 26.4% 71.6% 68.3%
Julius Thomas 37.0% 71.7% 69.8% 49.5% 73.0% 63.1%
Wes Welker 36.6% 76.6% 49.0% 42.8% 66.4% 67.1%
C.J. Anderson 84.3% 77.3% 38.2%
Ronnie Hillman 78.4% 61.8% 28.6% 71.4% 85.7% 58.3% 117.7% 83.3% 30.0%
Jacob Tamme 22.9% 50.0% 28.6% 39.7% 80.0% 70.0% 38.7% 61.2% 55.8%
Virgil Green 32.4% 100.0% 83.3% 46.7% 75.0% 0.0% 93.7% 83.3% 80.0%
Montee Ball 85.5% 69.2% 22.2% 97.2% 74.1% 50.0%
Andre Caldwell 36.2% 33.3% 80.0% 20.5% 53.3% 68.8%
Juwan Thompson 84.0% 57.1% 0.0%
Cody Latimer 52.2% 50.0% 50.0%
Eric Decker 31.4% 63.5% 72.4% 27.3% 69.1% 61.2%
Knowshon Moreno 89.1% 81.1% 48.3%
Joel Dreessen 53.2% 77.8% 42.9% 43.3% 70.7% 46.3%
Brandon Stokley 26.5% 77.6% 66.7%
Willis McGahee 108.6% 78.8% 38.5%
Matt Willis 27.8% 45.5% 50.0%
Lance Ball 55.7% 63.6% 57.1%

So there is a lot to pick through in that table above. The first thing that should jump out is that almost every one of our receivers was better at getting yards after the catch in 2013 than in 2014. The other interesting thing to note is how much lower the 1DN% for many of our receivers in 2014 relative to 2013.

Does what Kubiak did in 2014 in Baltimore tell us anything about our 2015 passing offense?

This is debatable since while Joe Flacco is elite (that joke never gets old), he is very different from Peyton Manning. We don't know how much influence Kubiak is going have over the offense since Dennison is the OC (some with still contend the Manning is the OC).

Name Pos. Completions Targets Comp % TDs
Smith, Steve WR 82 144 56.9 5
Smith, Torrey WR 51 101 50.5 11
Daniels, Owen TE 49 76 64.5 4
Forsett, Justin RB 46 61 75.4 0
Aiken, Kamar WR 24 34 70.6 3
Brown, Marlon WR 24 33 72.7 0
Juszczyk, Kyle FB 19 28 67.9 1
Pitta, Dennis TE 17 23 73.9 0
Jones, Jacoby WR 9 19 47.4 0
Gillmore, Crockett TE 11 15 73.3 1
Taliaferro, Lorenzo RB 8 10 80.0 0
Campanaro, Michael WR 7 9 77.8 1
Pierce, Bernard RB 2 7 28.6 0
Toussaint, Fitzgerald RB 3 6 50.0 0
Supernaw, Phillip TE 2 2 100.0 0

It's key to note that BAL lost their best pass-catching TE (Pitta) to a season ending-injury early in the year so that might have changed their target distribution. Owen Daniels appears to have stepped-up admirably as their main receiving TE. I do like the fact that the FB was targeted 28 times. Baltimore threw the ball 112 times to their RBs last season (20% of total passes thrown) compared to 98 RB targets for us (16% ot total passes thrown).

Now let's compare RZ targets:

Name Pos. Completions Targets Comp % TDs Target %
Smith, Steve WR 9 21 42.86 2 24.7
Smith, Torrey WR 9 18 50 7 21.9
Daniels, Owen TE 10 15 66.67 4 17.7
Aiken, Kamar WR 6 7 85.71 3 8.2
Juszczyk, Kyle FB 3 6 50 1 7.1
Forsett, Justin RB 1 5 20 0 5.9
Pitta, Dennis TE 0 4 0 0 4.7
Gillmore, Crockett TE 1 3 33.33 1 3.5
Toussaint, Fitzgerald RB 1 2 50 0

2.4

Campanaro, Michael WR 1 2 50 1 2.4
Brown, Marlon WR 1 1 100 0 1.2
Jones, Jacoby WR 0 1 0 0 1.2


While Manning threw the ball 54% of the time towards Demaryius and Emmanuel in the red zone, Flacco last season spread the ball around a lot more. That being said our RZ target distribution was fairly similar if you break it down by position group. Below is a comparative chart by position group of RZ targets in 2014

Comparative 2014 position group RZ target%

BAL DEN
RB 15% 15%
TE 26% 21%
WR 59% 64%

The Ravens last season threw a few more balls to the TE in the RZ than we did, but they threw more to the TEs overall compared to us last season (20% to 16%)

Comparative overall target% by position group 2014

BAL DEN
RB 19.7% 16.1%
TE 20.4% 15.5%
WR 59.9% 67.2%

PFM threw 2 out of 3 balls to our WRs last season. So let's get back to the discussion of who he threw to on critical plays (3rd and 4th downs).

Going further back in Time

From 2010-2013 Kubes was the HC in Houston with Dennison as his OC. Let's look at their target distribution by position group over those 4season.

Houston Target Distribution under Kubiak/Dennison

2013 2012 2011 2010
RB 17% 14% 21% 18%
FB 2% 8% 7% 5%
WR 56% 52% 45% 56%
TE 25% 26% 28% 22%

Again we have to remember the this was mostly Matt Schaub operating the offense and that who he chose to target may be very different from who Manning would have chosen to target had he been in Houston for these four seasons. That being said, it would appear that if history is our guide, then we will be throwing more to the RBs and the TEs next season and less to the WRs. The supposition here is that we will be running an offense similar to the offense that Kubes and Dennison ran in Houston and that may not be the case, but we will see.

Manning's most trusted receivers in 2014

We threw the ball 176 times on 3rd or 4th down last season - looking at who Manning threw to in those situations is informative.

Conversion% is (1DN or TD)/(targets)

Name Targets Catches Catch% Yards 1DN or TD TDs Conversion%
Emmanuel Sanders 41 29 70.70% 433 24 4 59%
Demaryius Thomas 53 31 58.50% 371 19 5 36%
Julius Thomas 20 15 75.00% 214 13 5 65%
Wes Welker 20 13 65.00% 119 9 0 45%
C.J. Anderson 10 6 60.00% 109 4 2 40%
Virgil Green 2 2 100.00% 39 2 1 100%
Montee Ball 4 3 75.00% 24 1 0 25%
Jacob Tamme 10 4 40.00% 15 1 0 10%
Ronnie Hillman 2 1 50.00% 9 0 0 0%
Isaiah Burse 1 0 0.00% 0 0 0 0%
Juwan Thompson 2 1 50.00% 0 0 0 0%
Andre Caldwell 4 0 0.00% 0 0 0 0%
Totals 169 105 62.10% 1333 76 17

Manning got sacked 7 times on 176 drop-backs on 3rd and 4th down.  While DT had more targets on 3rd or 4th down, his catch rate with below a lot of the other receivers on the team (Was PFM trying to get him more difficult passes on 3rd down than the others?). 76 of these passing plays on 3rd or 4th down last season resulted in a first down or a touchdown (43%). If you focus on the conversion% we see that JT and ES were our best "clutch" receivers last season (of the guys who got a lot of targets). Now we will most likely throw the ball less next season (Baltimore has 568 passing attempts while we had 607), but with J. Thomas, Welker, Tamme and (not yet) Caldwell not coming back next season, that's 54 targets in clutch situations that will need to be replaced by Latimer, Daniels, Green or someone else.