What's the deal with Demaryius Thomas this season?

I was lucky enough to attend the Broncos’ last regular season game against the San Diego Chargers, the game where Peyton came back, and led the team to quite possibly the final regular season victory he will play for, the AFC West title for the 5^th year in a row, and the number one seed in the AFC. I made casual conversation with the gentleman sitting next to me, and at one point after Demaryius Thomas missed a catch he commented, "He sure seems like he’s put in less effort since his big contract deal."

This isn’t the first time I’ve heard or read a comment suggesting the same thing from a Broncos fan. There have been news stories about his dropping passes and possible reasons for it. There have been comments suggesting that he got paid and stopped trying, that he’s not a team player.

But what is the truth of the matter? Has Demaryius been worse this season than usual? Has he become greedy or distracted? Is he still earning is big $70 million paycheck?

The truth is, statistically, DT hasn’t really changed much since Peyton Manning took over at QB. According to Sporting Charts, DT had 10 dropped passes in 2012, 8 in 2013, 10 in 2014, and 9 this year (where the definition of a dropped pass is when "a receiver touches the ball but fails to catch it"). This season, DT totaled 1304 receiving yards, his fourth season in a row with over 1300 yards. That is nothing to scoff at; only two other receivers in history have done that: Marvin Harrison and Jerry Rice.

In @NFL history, the only 3 WRs w/ 4 straight 90+ catch, 1,300-yard seasons: Harrison (5), Rice (4), @DemaryiusT (4) pic.twitter.com/jl5zS17QoH

— Denver Broncos (@Broncos) January 6, 2016

On the other hand, DT’s production has declined slightly since the last three seasons, and he did finish 5^th for the most dropped passes in the NFL. He finished with 300 yards less than last season, and he only had six touchdowns – easily the lowest he’s had without Tim Tebow or Kyle Orton at quarterback. But the biggest decline in Demaryius’ performance come on his decrease in yards after catch (YAC) compared to the previous 3 seasons.

Could the slight dip in performance be because of his paycheck? Maybe. Could it be because of the distractions of his mother being released from prison? Perhaps. But those are not things we can look at with evidence.

The fact is that the Broncos’ entire offense this year has dipped in performance for many reasons. The most obvious one is that there was a coaching change, which brought along a new type of offense. With the new offense comes confusion on routes, different audibles, new offensive line schemes. That is just the surface of offensive changes.

Another obvious change is the Broncos’ completely dominant defense. This is the first time in franchise history that the Broncos have finished with the number one overall defense. Unlike 2013, the Broncos’ don’t have to compete with other teams’ offenses to see who can sling up the most yards and points to win the game. The defense makes sure that the opposing team is held to a low score, which translates to a more conservative offense, especially when it comes to passing.

Finally, and most importantly, we must consider who is throwing the ball to DT. If you look at his first two seasons, his drop percentage was huge, he had a low percentage of targets that he was actually catching, and especially with Tebow, his YAC was unimpressive. With the Manning offense in 2012-2014, DT was running a lot of screen plays, which go for touchdowns and big YAC numbers (also note that this was how most of Marvin Harrison’s career was played). In Kubiak’s offense, and especially with Brock at QB, most of the passes were short throws in the middle of the field, which makes it much harder to gain big yards after the catch.

So maybe Demaryius hasn’t been producing the "Star Wars numbers" (in the words of Bronco Mike) that we are used to. Maybe he didn’t win you that fantasy football championship this year. But he is still an elite receiver, finishing the season 7^th overall for receiving yards. In my opinion that is extremely impressive to do with a new system and inconsistency at who is throwing the ball, not to mention the rest of the off-the-field distractions he has had to deal with this season. And, to end on a positive note, I have noticed a greater effort, and a developed chemistry between him and Brock in the last three games of this season. No matter who is throwing to him, I expect DT to carry this into the playoffs, which his mom will be watching live for the first time in his life.