The Denver Broncos were beaten pretty handily by the San Diego Chargers just two weeks ago on Thursday Night Football, but that loss didn’t appear to diminish the Broncos much for oddsmakers as they opened six-point favorites over the Chargers this week.
The line has since dropped to around a five-point spread as of this posting, but it is clear that the Broncos are expected to win this game.
FiveThirtyEight pegged the Broncos as nine-point favorites with a 78% chance of winning this game. As someone who enjoys their website analytics, I thought it would be fun to see where they rate the Broncos in various situations:
- Make the playoffs: 84%
- Win division: 47%
- First round bye: 43%
- Win Super Bowl: 11%
Compare that to the Oakland Raiders who share the same record as the Broncos, but have just a 37% chance of making the playoffs and an 8% chance of winning the AFC West. Oh, and a 1% chance of winning the Super Bowl.
Don’t buy the hype, people.
The real threat to the Broncos in 2016 is none other than the Kansas City Chiefs. They are right on the Broncos heels with a 78% chance of making the playoffs and a 43% chance of winning the division. Their odds of winning a Super Bowl are just slightly lower at 9%.
The AFC West will come down to which team takes care of their division rivals straight up and so far the Broncos are behind the eight ball in that regard. A win this weekend will straighten that out.