Tampa 4-5 @ Kansas City 7-2
On paper, this looks like a walk over win for KC. Except that the Bucs haven't lost to KC in 22 years. However, Reid hasn't played the Bucs as a chief, so the ball is back in their court.
The key to the Bucs beating KC is no turnovers. If TB turns the ball over, their chances drop. When they reach four TO's, Reid has a 100% win rate.
Doug Martin must play and be effective. Jameis Winston is a force when he has a run game (as most QB's).
KC has to chose who to double cover, Mike Evans or Cameron Brate. Both have been having a string of good games, along with some kind of a run game, KC might not have a cake walk win.
Winston is labeled as a guy who's not athletic, but for two years now he's made NFL highlight reels with moves to make Newton jealous. He's a do or die QB, so KC must wrap him up (please don't). Contain Jaboo and you win.
TB's defense is odd. They have some good players, but as a unit, they're inconsistent and lack cohesion. A veteran QB like Alex Smith could pick them apart. They have gotten better lately, this game in Arrowhead should give a strong indication if they've actually improved or just were playing inferior teams.
Both teams are poor at stopping the run, so if Martin can have a better game than Spencer Ware, TB has a slim chance at winning. I'll be pulling for my favorite starting QB to eek out a win and help Denver.
San Diego has a bye
This game should be fun, in a train wreck kind of way, to watch because one of them is losing and they're kind of evenly matched.
Houston is very good at pass coverage and poor at stopping the run. Oakland isn't very good at either; however, Osweiler is stinking worse than a chicken house. Carr is ranked in the top at passing. Both are ranked above average in the rush.
This game should come down to whether or not Oakland can stop the run, not that Houston has much of one with them being down to dinged up third string Lamar Miller.
With Will Fuller questionable this week, don't expect Brent to have a good game, not that would be a worry anyway. Vince Wilfork was questionable as well which should help both the run and in turn helps keep Carr upright.
It's tough to imagine Houston winning since JDR knows Brent well and all his flaws. If Brent were to leave on injury and Tom Savage goes in, I'd give Houston's defense a fighting chance to pull out a win based on Savage playing better than a choking Brent.
What is a factor is Mexico City being 7,359 feet up. Houston and Oakland are both barely above sea level. Fitness and preparation may actually be the decider over talent.