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The Denver Broncos opened mere one point favorites over the Oakland Raiders, but the line has since fallen to even money. The hype of the Raiders offense now faces its first true test of the season against the best pass defense in all of football.
It’s offense versus defense.
| Team | PPG | Comp % | Yds/G | Yds/Att | TD | INT | Sack | Rating | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Offense | Raiders | 26.9 | 66.3 | 285.1 | 7.2 | 17.0 | 3.0 | 9.0 | 100.9 |
| Defense | Broncos | 17.0 | 53.5 | 183.9 | 5.7 | 6.0 | 8.0 | 26.0 | 65.7 |
This is the kind of matchup that typically breeds tremendous hype for the high-powered offense. We can’t expect Raider fans to understand, but Broncos fans understand all to well how a great defense can win against a great offense thanks largely to both Super Bowl 48 and Super Bowl 50.
That makes me think this spread is slightly off and favoring the Raiders a bit too much. For a change, Walter Football agrees with me and has put his money where his mouth is with a five unit bet on the Broncos this weekend.
RECAP: I've posted two five-unit selections thus far. How about a third? I'll be betting the Broncos heavily.
This is another game where the spread isn't priced correctly. The Raiders have no homefield advantage, so this is saying that Denver and Oakland are equal, which is hardly the case. The Raiders have the dynamic passing weapons, but the Broncos are better in every other regard. And sure, the records are the same, but the Raiders are 0-2 versus opponents that currently have winning records, and they've been outgained in terms of yards per play in all but one game this year. The Broncos should be -3, as I think they're three points better than Oakland.
Another factor is how disciplined the Raiders will be. They just set a league-record 23 penalties and won. I figure they'd be cleaner following a loss, but I think they'll make the same sort of mistakes in this game, especially with expectations being so high. This is their chance to prove that they can be considered one of the top teams in the league, and I think they'll overcompensate as a result. They'll be reckless in terms of penalties, making this even easier for Denver. The Broncos, meanwhile, have been here before, and they're very familiar with how to win a big game.
He can be both on point and completely out of his mind, so don’t read too much into it. I just happen to like Walter’s way of covering spread predictions.
The big question mark is Aqib Talib. If he is out of the game, it is going to be an interesting matchup with the Raiders two elite wide receiver threats in Amari Cooper and Michael Crabtree.
The battle for the AFC West begins this Sunday night!