FrenchFred: Broncos need a 'run, run, pass-on-third-down' strategy

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*Editor's note: All the credit for this goes to FrenchFred as he wrote it...and no stat-calculating devices were harmed in docllv's help to publish :)

As some may know me a bit, I am a stat kind of man, and I love them. I understand that stats don't tell the whole story, but they are fun to play with.

As such I wanted to see how the trend is for Trevor Siemian (TS), and a bit more at the end... Yes you better read this article to the end ;-)

(*note: all stats were based on those available on or for the QBR stat only).

General Trend

This trend is quite easy to see by using the QB rating and ESPN QBR:


The fun part is that the raw lines are somewhat different as the best QB rating of TS is noted as one of his worst from a QBR point of view...

The not-so-funny part is that the trend lines for both are very similar and not going in the right direction.

The passing stats



Here we can see three positive trends:

  • The first on is he is improving his yardage production, even through his week 4 injury impacted it negatively.
  • The TD production is pretty constant, you will have most of the time a 1TD game from TS, for the rest he will produce as much 0 TD games as multiple TDs games.
  • The INT trend is pretty nice also, he is a safe QB in this regard, he will have very few multiple INT games, and mostly between 0 and 1 INT (hopefully more 0 INT games than 1 INT games)

However, if there are fewer negative trends, one is still critical and needs to be corrected ASAP:

  • Siemian's % completion is steadily decreasing, to a point that he is getting closer and closer to the bottom of the league (his yearly average is just above Brench and Bortles): his yearly average is now a bit more than 4.5 points below the middle of the league.
  • His average yard per attempt is clearly suffering from his decreasing % completion, even if less than one could expect. You could even say that since coming back from injury, his average y/a is steadily improving.

The escape capability stat


Interestingly, the trend for sacks is pretty good (would have loved to find a hurry stat per week, but couldn't), which could lead to 2 possible conclusions:

  • The O-line pass protection may not be so bad as every think
  • TS is naturally pretty good at avoiding the pass rush

Before you all scream that the O-line is the worst of the league and it's all thanks to TS, you need to know that keeps track of the o-line hurries allowed; and Denver O-line is just 12th (not good but far from bad) with 50 pressures allowed (73 for the Browns and 68 for the Colts)...

So the sack rate is pretty good, but there is a bad trend that began last week: TS is now fumbling (even just a bit), and unfortunately they aren't bouncing our way much...


Other points

I know the title of the article says "and more," but don't worry, it comes right now:

  • The Broncos rushing game is unreliable and is less and less efficient/used
  • The injury to CJ Anderson has had much more impact to our running game than anyone predicted; Booker is not close to replace him as our number 1 back...

Fred final


Our QB is asked to throw more often even if he is trending down in efficiency; our run game is trending down, but more because we are not trying than because its efficiency is decreasing...

There is clearly an issue with our early play calling, and it is killing us right now. The coaches try to ignite the passing game to open the run (in theory, it's good for the WCO), but it's not working and it obliges us to go 1 dimensional because we are always 1 or more scores behind...

When we are running a lot, we are getting more yards/attempts, and every time we run a lot, we are winning: The coaches have an easy solution in front of them to be successful in the short term and in the playoffs: RUN THE DAMN BALL A LOT!!!

It's time to begin the game with a "Run, Run, Pass on third down" strategy. Establish the run to set up the pass as the opposite is clearly not working (our only first quarter TD came from an 11-yard drive, which is pathetic)...

This is a Fan-Created Comment on The opinion here is not necessarily shared by the editorial staff of MHR.