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Broncos Patriots odds: Denver opens home underdogs against red hot New England

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The Denver Broncos defense that dominated Tom Brady 10 months ago is not as good as it once was and the New England Patriots have only gotten better.

NFL: AFC Championship-New England Patriots at Denver Broncos Mark J. Rebilas-USA TODAY Sports

Before the New England Patriots even played on Monday night, the line opened with them as 3-point road favorites over the reigning Super Bowl champion Denver Broncos. In a place that has been a House of Horrors for Tom Brady throughout much of his career.

Such is the way of the general view that the Broncos offense is so inept that they really shouldn’t win any games anymore.

Well, I have a secret for all of you. The Broncos are going to win this game. But shhhhh.

There is one thing people just cannot take into account with the NFL. It’s a game of matchups. The Broncos did not matchup well against the Titans defensively. They are a run-first team and ate up time of possession and the offense racked up yards, but could not convert it into points as they could never really flip field position.

Here’s a news flash, the Patriots like to run the ball too, but their success flows through the arm of Brady. That flows right into the hands of the best pass defense in all of football. Oh, and its a pass defense that is better than the one that suffocated Brady in the AFC Championship game.

The one thing that can derail this optimistic prediction is Trevor Siemian. Gary Kubiak abandoned the run almost immediately last week to the tune of 51 passes. Siemian racked up yards, but could not convert third downs or touchdowns. If this strategy is going to work, Siemian needs to get hot when it matters the most.

We’re talking Brock Osweiler against the Patriots last year, hot.

The rest of the offense needs to flow through the legs of Justin Forsett. Kubiak needs to stick with the run this time and pound that rock. Forsett had a poor game, if only because he had two long runs negated - one by penalty and the other by fumble. He was actually gaining yards, where Devontae Booker was not.

It’s going to happen. Keep the faith, Broncos Country!