The Denver Broncos are better than everyone thinks heading into Super Bowl 50

The Denver Broncos opened as 4.5 point underdogs, and are currently favored to lose by 6 points. 94% of people placing bets on the Super Bowl are betting that the Carolina Panthers are going to win.

So far the Panthers are seeing an insane 94% of the #SuperBowl50 action per @WilliamHillUS pic.twitter.com/4Hu7PFKpYJ

— Covers (@Covers) January 29, 2016

On the surface, it's easy to see why the Panthers are so heavily favored. They've only lost one game, they have the highest point differential in the NFL, and have scored more points of any other team. Their playoff victories have been completely dominant.

While the Broncos have been dealing with "quarterback drama" all season, have the lowest point differential of any team in the playoffs, winning almost every game they played this season by less than one score. But only looking at the surface is where the analysis is falling short. How does each aspect of Carolina's "number one" offense (only in points) match up to Denver's number one defense (in every category)? And how does Denver's mediocre offense match up with Carolina's hyped up defense?

How the number one defense matches up against the (sort of) number one offense

Team	Carolina		Denver
Statistic	Scored	Rank	Allowed	Rank
Points/game	32.2	1	18.3	3
Yards/game	369	11	292	1
Passing YPA	7.7	10	6.2	1
Rushing YPC	4.3	8	3.3	1

Starting with the reason the Panthers are considered the number one offense, points per game. The Panthers average 32.2 points per game (including playoffs), while the Broncos are allowing 18.3. Surprisingly, Panthers offense averages 369 yards per game, finishing 11^th in the regular season. Compare that to the Broncos defense allowing an average of 292 yards per game and finishing first in the league for that category. The Broncos defense ranked first in yards allowed per play for both rushing and passing, while the Panthers finished 10^th and 8^th in those categories in the regular season.

The Broncos defense is the only Super Bowl team EVER to allow the lowest passing yards per play and rushing yards per play in a season.

— Kevin Kissner (@Kissner1043) February 1, 2016

On paper, this looks like a good matchup for a strong Denver defense, however it will be challenging because they haven't seen anything like it up to this point. Cam Newton is his own category of quarterback, and the Broncos will have to formulate a game plan to contain him and defend his throws. According to PFF the Broncos had the highest graded run defense and pass rush in the league, so if any team is equipped to deal with him and Jonathan Stewart, it's the Broncos. Pair that with the second ranked secondary in the league, and the Broncos seem like they have a good formula to contain Carolina's unique offense.

Cam Newton's average time to throw is 2.83 seconds. QBs facing DEN defense this season have averaged 2.51 sec.

— Pro Football Focus (@PFF) February 1, 2016

Key to win: CONTAIN THE RUN

Now, let's talk about the flip side...

How an inconsistent offense matches with a good defense

Team	Denver		Carolina
Statistic	Scored	Rank	Allowed	Rank
Points/game	22.1	19	19.3	6
Yards/game	348	16	325	11
Passing YPA	7	23	6.2	2
Rushing YPC	4.2	13	3.9	7

Carolina is dominating in points, but not in yardage. This means they are benefiting from short field position, which is indicative of a lot of forced turnovers. On average, the Panthers line of scrimmage started at the 30.5 yard line, the second best starting field position in the league. They led the league in turnovers, with 39, and their defense generated a turnover on 1 of every 5 drives (meaning their offense started with a turnover 20% of the time.

Despite generating an enormous amount of turnovers, the Panthers' defense doesn't rank the best in any other category, and Denver's improved offense is an interesting matchup. The Broncos are averaging 22 points per game, finishing 19^th, while the panthers are allowing an average of 19.3, finishing 6^th. Keep in mind that the Broncos have been climbing up in the rankings as well. They had a slow start to the season while they were learning a new offensive system implemented by Kubiak and dealing with Peyton Manning injuries and a carousel of offensive linemen. Pass protection has been at its peak all season in the playoffs. And finally, keep in mind that Kubiak plays with a conservative offense, trusting that the defense will keep the opponent's score low.

If the Broncos can protect the ball like they have against the Steelers and Patriots (and fall on those laterals you drop, Ronnie!), the Panthers' defense isn't much better than the average team the Broncos have played against all season. Pair that, with the fact that the Broncos have been playing their best offense in the playoffs. Evan Mathis is one of the league's best run blockers, and Schofield seems to have heard us, because he's looked like a new man in recent weeks. The Panthers' run defense is stronger than average, but they rely mostly on Luke Keuchly and Kawann Short, leaving vulnerable areas on the outside.

The Panthers' secondary doesn't seem to pose much of a threat outside of Josh Norman due to the injury to Charles Tillman exposing Robert McClain's weaknesses. If Peyton can take advantage of the sideline and get the ball out fast enough to evade the Panthers' pass rush, and most importantly not throw an interception, the Broncos can get by. Led by Peyton Manning's mastermind, the offense can take advantage of this matchup and control the game clock to keep Cam Newton off the field as much as possible.

P Manning's time to throw ave is 2.34 secs. QBs facing CAR this season have averaged 2.73. Difference between fastest in NFL + among slowest

— Pro Football Focus (@PFF) February 1, 2016

Key to win: NO TURNOVERS

Strength of Schedule Comparison

When looking at matchups between two of the best teams in the league, it is important to consider who they have played and when they played them. We have heard the dialogue that the Panthers have benefitted from an easy schedule. That is true, but they have completely capitalized on that schedule, so it isn't valid to say they wouldn't be here if they had played tougher teams leading into the playoffs. However, it might be a telling statistic about why their stats are as good as they are.

According to Football Outsiders Defensive Efficiency Ratings, the Broncos led the league in defensive DVOA (Defense-adjusted Value Over Average) with a rating of -25.8%; the Panthers are second with -18.4%. But when looking at the teams they played, we can rank the quality of each offense that the Broncos and Panthers faced. The Broncos had the 4^th hardest schedule against offenses, facing offenses with an average DVOA of 3.2%; the Panthers had the 26^th (of 6^th easiest) schedule against offenses, with an average of -2.9%. When you look at it this way, the Broncos have the far and away best defense in the league against some of the best teams in the league seem a little more impressive.

On the other side of the ball, the Broncos finished 25^th on Offensive DVOA (-8.8%) playing with the 17^th hardest schedule (-0.1% Def. DVOA), while the Panthers finished 8^th (9.9%) playing against the easiest schedule in the league (4.9% Def. DVOA). This statistic is a little more concerning for the Broncos, but explains why the Panthers offense seems so good statistically.

Matchup to watch: Best defensive line versus one of the best offensive lines

The Panthers boasted the second ranked offensive line in 2015 according to PFF, finishing 4^th in the league for pass blocking and 6^th for run blocking, led by Trai Turner and Ryan Kalil. In the regular season the Broncos played against 5 top of the top 10 rated offensive line (Browns 5^th, Raiders 6^th, Packers 7^th, Bengals 8^th, and Steelers 10^th).

Of note, the Raiders have the 2^nd best pass blocking grade and the Browns have the 3^rd. Their performances against the Broncos compared to their averages are shown here:

Team	completion %	YPA	yards
Raiders	56%	5.6	161
average	62%	6.8	242
difference	-6%	-1.2	-81
Browns	51%	5.5	189
average	61%	6.8	237
difference	-10%	-1.3	-48
Broncos average	60%	6.2	200

The Broncos are bringing down the averages of elite offensive lines, and even allowed less than their average during those matchups (60%, 6.2 YPA, 200 yards).

The Vikings have the 7^th best run blocking, and Bears have the 5^th best. In both of these games the teams rushed for more than the Broncos allowed on average (3.3 YPC, 84 yards), but still less than those teams were averaging on the rest of the league.

Team	YPC	yards
Vikings	5.4	113
average	4.7	138
difference	0.7	-25
Bears	3.5	86
average	3.9	116
difference	-0.4	-30
Broncos average	3.3	84

For reference, Panthers averaged a 60% completion rate, 7.7 YPA, and 224 yards/game passing with the 4th best pass blocking, and 4.3 YPC and 152 yards/game rushing with the 6th best run blocking.

The Broncos have the highest rated defensive line in the league and the second best secondary according to PFF. Other defensive lines in the top ten that have faced the Panthers are: the Texans (5^th), the Eagles (6^th), and the Titans (8^th). Top ten secondaries that the Panthers faced: the Texans (8^th). How did they fare against those teams? Their stats are shown in the table below against each team, compared to that team's average allowed on the season.

	Passing			Rushing
Team	completion %	YPA	yards	YPC	yards
Texans	48%	4.6	178	5.2	172
average	59%	6.6	210	4.1	100
difference	-11%	-2	-32	1.1	72
Eagles	58%	8.2	190	6.2	204
average	62%	7.7	299	4.5	135
difference	-4%	0.5	-109	1.7	69
Titans	84%	8.7	184	3.5	119
average	64%	7.9	230	3.9	112
difference	20%	0.8	-46	-0.4	7
Panthers Average	60%	7.7	224	4.3	152

These stats are wildly inconsistent, which may be a product of inconsistent teams or a product of an offense that relies on turnovers for great field position, but Cam was held to less than 200 yards passing in every game. The Texans recipe stopped the Panthers' passing game and the Titans stifled the rush.

One thing to note is that the Texans and Panthers played in week 2, before the Texans really started to get their defensive line to gel and start stopping other teams' rushing attempts; and they really are the closest thing to the Denver defense that the Panthers played in the regular season.

Other notes about previous matchups

The Broncos faced the number one ranked secondary in the AFC Championship and only gave up one turnover on a mental error by Ronnie Hillman. They also faced the Packers (3^rd), the Chiefs (4^th), the Bengals (6^th), and the Lions (9^th). The Panthers are ranked 10^th. The Broncos faced the Raiders' 4^th ranked defensive line, and the Chiefs 7^th ranked line (the Panthers are outside of the top 10). The Panthers faced the number one offensive line, the Cowboys, along with the Saints (3^rd), the Falcons (4^th), and the Packers (7^th).

Often overlooked, one thing to remember about the Denver Broncos' offense is that they face the top ranked defense in practice every single day. I realize it isn't the starting offensive players against the starting defensive players in practice, but this allows Gary Kubiak and Rick Dennison to prepare for every possible scenario that the number one defense is able to throw at them.

The Broncos haven't allowed any team to  beat them by more than one score with the exception of the Chiefs in the game Manning played injured in. They have only lost by more than 6 points two times all season, the second time was against the Steelers when TJ Ward and Darian Steward were injured, and Bruton played on a broken leg for 3 quarters. Based on this logic, I don't see why Vegas has a 6 point spread favoring the Panthers. There is a possibility that it could be a blowout, but that seems unlikely.

A final thought

The Broncos are well-equipped to handle the strengths of the Panthers. If the offense plays smart and doesn't give them the ball or set them up with good field position, they have a very good chance at winning (a heck of a lot better than the Vegas odds). The offense must play to the level they have been playing at in the last two games, and the defense needs to take advantage of their health. Having a bye week benefits the Broncos more than the Panthers; they can take advantage of designing plays for the greatest quarterback mind of all time for an extra week, ensuring that he plays like he did against the Packers and the smart play we have seen the previous two weeks. Our receivers need to catch their passes, and the offensive line needs to play their best. And perhaps it is overstated, but the Broncos have more Super Bowl experience than the Panthers which will help their mental preparations in a completely different environment.

Oh and... GO BRONCOS!