clock menu more-arrow no yes

Filed under:

Fantasy Football: Do your worst sleepers, 0-RB, injuries and suspensions

New, comments

We often only consider the best case scenario. What if we looked at the worst that you could do?

Mark J. Rebilas-USA TODAY Sports

I've participated in mock drafts as the 12th pick in over 36 different sites' (and experts) average draft position (ADP). Here you will have my results. My rules were that I had to pick 12th, my draft choice had to be ranked 12th or below for that site's ADP. That was the case for every round, so in the 2nd round, the ADP on the player that I chose had to be 24th or below, 36th or below for my 3rd round and so on (you get it).

My fake drafts had 12 teams in the mock and scoring was based on TDs being worth 6 points for every position and a half point-per-reception (PPR).

My thinking in picking this way was that I'd end up with the worst possible team that I could end up with. Obviously, my target with most rounds was nabbing a sleeper unless someone was simply screaming at me at the required ADP in the round and that didn't happen too often.

Oh and to do it on insanity mode, I used a modified 0-RB strategy (no running backs in the first 2 rounds). I assumed 3 WR (no flex), because that is the Yahoo Fantasy Football default. I took my results and then averaged those results and ended up with the following team:

Quarterback: Carson Palmer - Arizona Cardinals (9th round)

  • Palmer finished 2015 with the 5th highest point total (ahead of the sexier Drew Brees and Aaron Rodgers and even running back Devonta Freeman). Nothing has changed for Palmer aside from getting a bunch of guys healthy, including running back David Johnson (the best running back on my board).

Running Backs: Thomas Rawls - Seattle Seahawks (3rd), Frank Gore - Indianapolis Colts (6th), Melvin Gordon - San Diego Chargers (7th), Chris Ivory - Jacksonville Jaguars (13th)

honorable mention: Duke Johnson - Cleveland Browns (8th)

  • I have a soft-spot for Rawls, the dude just balls when he's given the chance. Rawls finished last season ahead in points of guys named C.J. Anderson, LeGarrette Blount, Ryan Mathews and that was really in 10 games (he participated in 12 total).
  • Gore (a steal in the 6th) finished as the 13th overall RB in points last season, ahead of guys that you definitely have above him on your board. Let's put it this way 10-15 among running backs last season were: Matt Forte, Chris Ivory, Latavius Murray, Gore, LeSean McCoy and Darren McFadden.
  • Gordon burned so many people last season and drafting him brings the inherent risk of wishing that you'd picked his teammate Danny Woodhead in his place. Gordon flashed last season, he's done so in the preseason and I'm comfortable with him in the 7th.
  • A lot of times I ended up going running back-running back-running back through the 8th and when Cleveland's Duke Johnson was available, I'd take him over the Broncos defense (who I have here going to me in the 8th, often). I think that Johnson's ready to take on his 2015 sleeper role and will reward your loyalty in the way other Hue Jackson RB2's have done in the post.
  • There there was Ivory, he's been given most of the goal line carries in Jacksonville and as you read above he finished ahead of Gore in scoring in 2015. His ADP is a 13th round pick. Yes, please.

Wide Receivers: Dez Bryant - Dallas Cowboys (1st), Brandon Marshall - New York Jets (2nd), Donte Moncrief - Indianapolis Colts (4th), Torrey Smith - San Francisco 49ers (10th), Kevin White - Chicago Bears (11th), Sterling Shepard - New York Giants (12th), Corey Coleman - Wide Receivers (14th), Josh Gordon - Cleveland Browns (15th)

  • Taking Bryant in the 1st stings, but I have to go with my ADP rule and I'm going WR in the 1st round for sure if David Johnson, Todd Gurley, Adrian Peterson and Lamar Miller are gone. The player that was always there at the end of the 1st round was tight end Rob Gronkowski. I didn't pull the trigger on Gronkowski in the 1st ever. It didn't feel like I would in a real draft. The news of Tony Romo being injured would not have changed me drafted Bryant in the 1st.
  • Getting Brandon Marshall in the 2nd was one way to make me feel better, he stuck around and perhaps having no business being available consistently at the end of the 2nd round. Marshall finished just behind DeAndre Hopkins, but ahead of Odell Beckham Jr. in scoring in 2015.
  • Moncrief had an off year, but mostly due to the absence of Andrew Luck, getting him in the 4th seemed way early to be drafting him, but hey, we drafted him here last year. He's enjoyed a surge in his ADP as the NFL preseason reached week 3.
  • Smith is simply a result of the history of Chip Kelly's play calling. Someone has to catch the ball for Blaine Gabbert. Same scenario with White in the 11th, if he's there, take a chance. He can only be good as your WR5. Shepard and Coleman are in the same range of risk/reward, Coleman should keep up production while Gordon returns and figures out what's what.
  • And why wouldn't you draft Gordon in the 15th. What are you risking?

Tight End: Delanie Walker - Tennessee Titans (5th)

  • Walker is my TE4, so I get excited with him being available so consistently in the 5th. He finished last season 43rd in total points, ahead of guys like Doug Martin, Emmanuel Sanders, Amari Cooper, Todd Gurley.

Kicker: Brandon McManus - Denver Broncos (16th)

  • I feel like the Broncos are going to have to kick a lot of field goals this season. Normally I don't draft kickers, I grab one on the waiver wire.

Defense: Denver Broncos (8th)

  • In a land of auto drafting Denver's defense will go in the 8th. It's up to you, I grabbed them in the 8th, but have Seattle as my DEF2 and with a 9th round grade and then no other defenses until Carolina with an 11th round grade.

Here is the draft order: Dez Bryant (1st), Brandon Marshall (2nd), Thomas Rawls (3rd), Donte Moncrief (4th), Delanie Walker (5th), Frank Gore (6th), Melvin Gordon (7th), Denver Defense (8th), Carson Palmer (9th), Torrey Smith (10th), Kevin White (11th), Sterling Shepard (12th), Chris Ivory (13th), Corey Coleman (14th), Josh Gordon (15th), Brandon McManus (16th)

There you have it, my friends. That's the worst that your team can be. Use this post as my endorsements of sleepers at every position. Feel free to contact me on Twitter with any specific questions or line-up worries.