I turned in a nice performance last week in straight up pick’em last week and against the spread, finishing a strong 10-6 in both areas. A nice improvement from my Week 2 showing.
MHR super fan and staffer, Pete Baron, will be joining me this week. We’ve been offering up some competing picks posts in recent weeks, so why not compete directly?Pete skipped a week, so his overall record in straight-up is 19-13. Pete doesn’t do ATS picks.
Here is where I stand after two weeks (I also skipped a week):
- Season: 19-13
- ATS: 17-15
Let’s keep this trend going in the right direction. The odds this week are pulled the day of this posting.
Week 4 NFL Picks
Miami Dolphins at Cincinnati Bengals (-7.5)
Pete: So let me get this straight, the Dolphins fall ass backwards into a victory over the “I swear we’re not tanking the season” Browns, and yet the NFL wants us to take tonights game seriously? I know that the NFL schedules these games months in advance, but c’mon people, there are certain teams that should never be thrust into primetime. And the Dolphins are one of those teams until proven otherwise. Look for the Bengals to come out motivated to get their season back on track.
Prediction: Bengals 31, Dolphins 13
Tim: The Cincinnati Bengals are definitely a touchdown better at home over the Miami Dolphins, but they have not yet gotten their offense out of this early season slump. I don’t trust the Dolphins all that much either, but I feel like they could cover this spread.
Prediction: Bengals 27, Dolphins 20
Indianapolis Colts at Jacksonville Jaguars (+2.5)
Pete: I get it, the Jags play in London on Sunday mornings, but honestly, the NFL has got to find a better team to do these games. You know your team sucks when you have to play overseas because your team sucks so badly they can’t even halfway fill the stadium so you are forced to turn to non-American Football fans to fill it for you. If the Colts can’t pull it together to beat the Jags, then they just don’t deserve to be taken seriously at any point this season.
Prediction: Colts 23, Jaguars 20
Tim: Both teams are still desperate for some wins, but the Jaguars have yet to get into that win column like the Colts did last week. I have to believe that team, at home, will find a way to get win close.
Prediction: Jaguars 21, Colts 20
Seattle Seahawks at New York Jets (+2.5)
Pete: @kellyflemming you wanna take back your “Broncos need Fitzpatrick and his birds nest beard” wishes? Kidding. But this right there, what you saw against the Chiefs, is exactly why I said that if Elway signed Fitz, I’d boycott this season! If anyone deserves the Kyle Orton 2.0 stigmatism, it’s Ryan “derp derp” Fitzpatrick. Meanwhile, eventually around week 4 the Seahawks always get their stuff together. I think this might be the week they play like their lofty power rankings suggest.
Prediction: Seahawks 45, Jets 10
Tim: The Jets find themselves in gut-check mode against a very good Seahawks defense. They shouldn’t win this game, but something tells me this isn’t going to be a cakewalk for the Seahawks either.
Prediction: Seahawks 17, Jets 16
Detroit Lions at Chicago Bears (+3)
Pete: If there’s a worse team than the Browns, it’s the Bears. It isn’t like the Lions are all that much further behind, but still, it’s the Bears. The real question surrounding this game is this, “Will the Bears give us two #1 draft picks for our QB again?” Fox does love him Broncos players, and rumor has it that we have 2 franchise QBs on our roster, of which only 1 can play. It’s a dangerous move for Elway to make, cause team chemistry could go in the gutter, but on the back of this defense, I’m not sure that would matter.
Prediction: Lions 32, Bears 9
Tim: John Fox has successfully coached the Bears out of all of the talent they possessed prior to his arrival and are now in full meltdown mode. Any other year, I’d never take the Lions on the road against a divisional opponent.
Prediction: Lions 27, Bears 20
Cleveland Browns at Washington Redskins (-7.5)
Pete: When your head coach has to actually tell people that yes, they are trying, and no, they are not tanking, well, you know your team sucks. This is a game the Redskins should just steamroll through, but man, they look like a train wreck too. What happened from last year to this year? The Skins’ front office is looking pretty damn smart for forcing Cousins to play on a 1 year tag before investing QB money into him long term.
Prediction: Redskins 17, Browns 13
Tim: The Redskins are riding high over their divisional comeback win over the Giants, which means Kirk Cousins will go back to being inconsistent and unpredictable. The Browns are actually better than people think with two close losses. The spread is way too high for my liking. And hey, the Browns covered last week for me too.
Prediction: Redskins 24, Browns 17
Tennessee Titans at Houston Texans (-5)
Pete: Well, that Thursday night game against the rookie third string QB of the Pats didn’t exactly go as planned. And now J.J. Watt is on Injured Reserve designated to return, which means week 12 at the earliest. We shall soon find out if Brock’s right arm can elevate the offense more than JJ’s absence sinks the defense. Wow, I almost got through that entire sentence without snickering and laughing like a school girl. Good luck Brock, maybe you can score a single point this week. Pathetic! Elway is looking like a genius with each passing week!
Prediction: Texans 27, Titans 24
Tim: J.J. Watt is out for the year, which means the Texans are screwed right? The line has plummeted on this game since the news broke and I wouldn’t be surprised if its already well below the five points here. The Texans still win this game, but not by much.
Prediction: Texans 21, Titans 17
ATS: Texans (for now)
Buffalo Bills at New England Patriots (-4.5)
Pete: Sexy Rexy and his Bills are up in New England to hopefully do the unthinkable: Beat the Patriots without Naked Sunbather Tom Brady. I think they could pull it off, but each time I think this, I remind myself that Bill Belichick has no moral or ethical issues with drinking blood and rattling chicken bones to get that lucky voodoo going. If God is in Heaven, then Satan is in Foxborough.
Prediction: Patriots 24, Bills 23
Tim: The Bills are a team that few understand or can predict. The Patriots are a team that seem to always find a way to win 12 or more games a year. I think I’ll take them at home and to win by a comfortable margin.
Prediction: Patriots 27, Bills 20
Carolina Panthers at Atlanta Falcons (+3)
Pete: I love how people give Cam Newton every single benefit of the doubt. I haven’t seen the media have such a ... over a player like they do over Cam, regardless of how he plays. The Panthers get all the excuses, yet the Broncos don’t. Interesting. But, they are facing the Falcons, who last I looked, have no defense.
Prediction: Panthers 31, Falcons 17
Tim: So the Falcons might actually be pretty good this year. And the Panthers are flopping around pouting and stuff. That said, Cam Newton always seems to have a big game when his persona is on the ropes.
Prediction: Panthers 31, Falcons 27
Oakland Raiders at Baltimore Ravens (-3.5)
Pete: Remember how the Raiders were winning the division this year? Me too! All I’m saying is that it’s a darn good thing the Chargers exist otherwise the only thing they Raiders are winning for this division is their familiar “worst record in the AFC West” title. Of which they typically have a death grip over. Sure, the Ravens are pretenders, but they’ll look like contenders against Oak Town!
Prediction: Ravens 27, Raiders 17
Tim: The Ravens are undefeated, but that isn’t saying much with them scrapping together unimpressive close wins over the Browns and Jaguars. The Raiders are the best team they have faced so far, so we’ll find out whether or not the Ravens are actually good or a complete fraud.
Prediction: Ravens 24, Raiders 21
Denver Broncos at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (+3)
Pete: Undefeated Super Bowl Champions. You’re damn right! This is the trap game that we have to watch out for. Remember, last year the Browns took us to the brink. Sure, we had less than stellar offense, but still, the Broncos need to make sure that they wake up for this game and not play hungover. Gameplan for Winston like you would for Cam, and they’ll have similar results: 2 touchdown victory!
Prediction: Broncos 28, Buccaneers 19
Tim: I hate this spread. I hate that 90% of the public is pounding the Broncos like crazy, yet the line hasn’t moved. Everything about this is telling me we should expect a very close and scary game for our team. I still refuse to pick them to lose straight up, but I sure won’t side with the public in a situation like this.
Prediction: Broncos 17, Buccaneers 16
New Orleans Saints at San Diego Chargers (-4.5)
Pete: Why do you have to break my heart New Orleans? Why?!? This game is a true “pick em” because the Saints don’t look to be able to win no matter how hard they try, and the Chargers sure do try to give wins away. So the real question is this: Which team is going to snatch defeat from the jaws of victory? I bet it’s the Saints with a last minute TD, cause it sure won’t be a defensive stop.
Prediction: Saints 34, Chargers 31
Tim: Drew Brees will have his homecoming this weekend, facing the team that dumped him for Phillip Rivers. LaDainian Tomlinson is still bitter about that, noting that the Chargers would have won the Super Bowl had they kept Brees. Tough luck, Charlie. Brees is going to smoke your team on Sunday.
Prediction: Saints 38, Chargers 24
Dallas Cowboys at San Francisco 49ers (+2.5)
Pete: Chip Kelly is back at his “fastest offense on Earth” ways. The only problem with that is that it will destroy your defense because unless you can score on every drive (and they can’t), your defense will be worn out by the middle of the 2nd quarter. But who needs defense, right Chip? I mean, defense has never won anything in the NFL, right? You need to go back to college before your name is even more tarnished. Meanwhile, I’m starting Dak if I have him. He’ll have about 74 drives in this game because the Niners will only take about 30 seconds at a time to go 3 and out.
Prediction: Cowboys 37, 49ers 10
Tim: How in the world are the 49ers going to win this game? Since obliterating the Rams on opening day, they have since been obliterated themselves by better teams. If the Panthers and Seahawks can do it, so can these Cowboys.
Prediction: Cowboys 24, 49ers 16
Los Angeles Rams at Arizona Cardinals (-8)
Pete: What in the sam hell happened to the Cardinals. Thankfully their division is still ripe for the taking, but wow, for a team that some had starting off as Super Bowl participants, they look anything but. Then you have the Rams. I just don’t understand this team at all. Are they really really bad or really really good? I just don’t know. I want to pick the Rams, but I also can’t wrap my brain around the Cards blowing a home game against them. Ugh. Decisions decisions.
Prediction: Cardinals 24, Rams 13
Tim: The Cardinals players just had their players called out in public by the head coach. And the team just isn’t as good as it was supposed to be. Add that to the fact that Jeff Fisher seems to get his team ready to play the Seahawks and Cardinals tight year after year and you have a nice easy bet if you were a betting kind of person.
Prediction: Cardinals 24, Rams 20
Kansas City Chiefs at Pittsburgh Steelers (-4.5)
Pete: If there’s anything more annoying that Raider love, it’s Chief love. Simply because the Chief love kinda sorta has merit to it, even though in reality it doesn’t. I can just roll my eyes at Raider love, but Chief love? Nope, that’s when you just gotta troll because apparently a 21 year playoff victory drought will suddenly turn into a Super Bowl team? Lets win playoff games sooner than 21 years apart before we go raising that bar KC.
Prediction: Steelers 38, Chiefs 16
Tim: The Chiefs appear to be barely a playoff contender in 2016, which is deliciously awesome. Meanwhile, the Steelers were just curb stomped by the Eagles and will likely be pretty angry when they take the field on Sunday night. I have a feeling this game is going to get away from the Chiefs early and they’ll score a few at the end to make it less than embarrassing.
Prediction: Steelers 31, Chiefs 16
New York Giants at Minnesota Vikings (-5)
Pete: Ok, so the Vikings defense looks legit. Like, legit legit. They aren’t Denver or anything, but man, they have the proper recipe to win, now to make sure they have the ingredients. I’m not sure how much I trust Bradford, but so far, he isn’t Ortoning it up like usual. Meanwhile you have the Giants who are mental midgets it appears. Get even remotely under their skin, and they fall apart. Not a good recipe for success against a physical defense like the Vikings.
Prediction: Vikings 27, Giants 24
Tim: If you are uncertain if the Vikings are legit, this Monday Night Football game should put your doubt to rest. No Teddy Bridgewater, no Adrian Peterson, no problem. Like the 2015 Broncos, this is a defensive team and so far teams are not doing much of anything against them.
Prediction: Vikings 24, Giants 17
What are your biggest upset picks of Week 4?