Take a minute and forget all the noise about Trevor Siemian and his apparent downfall. I’m about to tell you why he is about to shred the Kansas City Chiefs defense and lead the Denver Broncos to a stunning upset in Arrowhead Stadium on Monday Night Football.
It is true that Siemian has a limited ability to read NFL defenses, especially under specific zone concepts. However, against man-to-man coverages Siemian has excelled and put up his biggest games in his career.
Take one guess what scheme the Chiefs run nearly 2/3’s of the time?
That’s right. Man coverage.
As I sunk into the negativity of the week, given the team appears to be in a free fall at this point with Siemian at quarterback, I was desperate for something good offensively to grasp onto.
When I saw that tweet, knowing Siemian’s game as well as I do, hope quickly returned.
Both the Los Angeles Charges in Week 1 and the Dallas Cowboys in Week 2 ran mostly man coverages and Siemian rocked it to the point where all of us were thinking he might just be the future we needed.
In that link above, most of those throws came against man coverage and the team quickly put up three touchdowns. However, the tape built up and by the time the Buffalo Bills defense got a hold of it they realized something and exploited it.
Siemian is completely ineffective when defenses shift away from man coverage as we covered last week.
When defenses move to Cover-2, Siemian becomes confused and starts staring down his first read regardless of whether the throw is there, but I’m not here to rehash what we all already know.
The fact is, the Chiefs are almost exclusively a man defense. Could they change that for this week only? Sure, but their players aren’t likely used to it and either way the plays should be there to be made.
The Chiefs offense matchups up really well with the Broncos defense, so I fully expect a shootout in this game. Siemian and the offense may come up short, as the game is in Arrowhead after all, but us fans should come away feeling a little less gloomy this week.
And more good news is on the horizon as the New England Patriots run man coverage the third most in the league.