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If the Denver Broncos had drafted the way the experts wanted there would be no Super Bowl championships

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If the Denver Broncos had followed the advice of Mel Kiper, Todd McShay and Mike Mayock, they would suck so bad right now.

NFL Draft Photo by Jonathan Daniel/Getty Images

It appears to be the rage to evaluate the draft experts and see how our front office compares to them in terms of who we would have gotten had we gotten the player that they chose for us in the first round in their final mock draft each year.

I went back to 2010 and examined the draft experts of Mel Kiper, Todd McShay and Mike Mayock. Feel free to look up others since I am curious to know what get the most “right” of any of the experts.

Kiper McShay Mayock Actual
2010 Dez Bryant Jerry Hughes Brandon Graham Demaryius Thomas
2010 Tim Tebow
2011 Patrick Peterson Von Miller Patrick Peterson Von Miller
2012 Michael Brockers Michael Brockers Michael Brockers Nobody (Wolfe in the 2nd)
2013 Tank Carradine Datone Jones Bjoern Werner Sylvester Williams
2014 Jason Verrett Stan Jean-Baptiste Jason Verrett Bradley Roby
2015 Cameron Erving Cedric Ogbuehi Jake Fisher Shane Ray
2016 A'Shawn Robinson Hunter Henry Karl Joseph Paxton Lynch

Note that with the exception of Von Miller, not a single pick was correct. In terms of position, they were closer. We did take a WR in round 1 in 2010 (and then a QB). We did take a defensive lineman with our first pick in the 2012 draft, I just wasn’t Michael Brockers (thank God or gods). We did take a defensive lineman in 2013, it just wasn’t one of the three that they predicted. Sylvester Williams has actually been the best of those 4 - by far - but the other three were major busts. Werner was out of the league in 2016. Carradine and Jones have combined to start 8 games in their NFL careers. We did take a CB in 2014, it just wasn’t Verrett and thankfully not Jean-Baptiste (who is not in the league anymore and never started an NFL game). They whiffed badly on 2015 and 2016. Neither expert foresaw us picking a DE/OLB in the first in the 2015 or a QB in the first in 2016. In 2015 they all predicted OL and in 2016 they had no idea what we were going to do in the first with predictions of DT, TE and S.

So how did each of these predicted crops of players turn out? I used Approximate Value which is a flawed metric but the best one we have for comparing players across different positions in the NFL. I summed the AV for all of these players to show the total value to the team that these picks would have brought to the Broncos (assuming that their careers played out as they have) and then compared that with the value that we have gotten from the guys that we actually did take in the first round.

Kiper
Player All-Pro Pro-Bowl GS AV
2010 Dez Bryant 1 3 83 63
2011 Patrick Peterson 3 6 96 79
2012 Michael Brockers 0 0 74 36
2013 Tank Carradine 0 0 1 4
2014 Jason Verrett 0 1 22 12
2015 Cameron Erving 0 0 17 7
2016 A'Shawn Robinson 0 0 5 3
SUMMATION 4 10 298 204
McShay
Player All-Pro Pro-Bowl GS AV
2010 Jerry Hughes 0 0 55 33
2011 Von Miller 3 5 88 80
2012 Michael Brockers 0 0 74 36
2013 Datone Jones 0 0 7 10
2014 Stan Jean-Baptiste 0 0 0 0
2015 Cedric Ogbuehi 0 0 12 6
2016 Hunter Henry 0 0 10 4
SUMMATION 3 5 246 169
Mike Mayock
Player All-Pro Pro-Bowl GS AV
2010 Brandon Graham 0 0 39 28
2011 Patrick Peterson 3 6 96 79
2012 Michael Brockers 0 0 74 36
2013 Bjoern Werner 0 0 16 10
2014 Jason Verrett 0 1 22 12
2015 Jake Fisher 0 0 4 2
2016 Karl Joseph 0 0 12 4
SUMMATION 3 7 263 171
Actual
Player All-Pro Pro-Bowl GS AV
2010 Demaryius Thomas 0 4 87 66
2010 Tim Tebow 0 0 16 12
2011 Von Miller 3 5 88 80
2012 Nobody (Wolfe in the 2nd) 0 0 69 35
2013 Sylvester Williams 0 0 48 24
2014 Bradley Roby 0 0 10 8
2015 Shane Ray 0 0 8 8
2016 Paxton Lynch 0 0 2 1
SUMMATION 3 9 328 234

Note that Reality was better than the best expert in terms of total AV. Kiper’s picks were the second best and McShay and Mayock appear to hate the Broncos equally given their top picks for us since 2010 have all turned out to be historic busts.