Broncos projected to win six games; also to win AFC title

It seems no one knows what to expect from the Denver Broncos in 2017. Case in point today, Football Outsiders came out with its projected win totals for each team and the Broncos are near the bottom of the list. Down there with the New York Jets and Cleveland Browns.

Denver Broncos: 6-10 (6.1 mean wins; SOS: 7)

That's also an issue in Denver, as a full turnover of the coaching staff often presages a drop for winning teams. The Broncos already defied historical NFL trends by putting up a second straight year of otherworldly pass defense, and the odds they can do it three straight years are even longer. We have the Broncos seventh in our defensive projections, and with their offense and schedule, that wouldn't be enough to have a winning team.

I’m sorry, but I shall call this argument complete garbage for now. They expect major defensive regression and little to no offensive improvement.

Meanwhile, Vegas put out their AFC Title odds for 2017, via Bovada, and the Broncos are right there with a group of teams behind the New England Patriots. Note where the Browns and Jets are.

2017-18 AFC Champion

New England Patriots 2/1

Oakland Raiders 7/1

Pittsburgh Steelers 7/1

Denver Broncos 9/1

Houston Texans 9/1

Kansas City Chiefs 12/1

Indianapolis Colts 14/1

Baltimore Ravens 20/1

Tennessee Titans 20/1

Cincinnati Bengals 25/1

Miami Dolphins 25/1

Los Angeles Chargers 33/1

Buffalo Bills 40/1

Jacksonville Jaguars 40/1

Cleveland Browns 100/1

New York Jets 100/1

So which is it? Are the Broncos legitimate contenders or complete frauds? The answer, for 2017 anyway, is probably somewhere in between. The season will come down to the quarterback position and how well whoever the start is does to generate points in the red zone, which was something Trevor Siemian and Paxton Lynch simply could not do in 2016.