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Broncos a borderline playoff team according to ESPN’s FPI ratings

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The national media is down on the Denver Broncos quarterback situation, but ESPN’s FPI not as much.

NFL: New England Patriots at Denver Broncos Isaiah J. Downing-USA TODAY Sports

The Denver Broncos are an enigma to most in the national media, which makes these rankings and ratings all the more eye roll worthy. Though these posts beat the daily quarterback grind that is the Broncos offseason in 2017.

ESPN’s FPI ratings is a calculation using a system of ranking for all three phases of each team; offense, defense and special teams. They then simulate the season 10,000 times to generate their final ratings. This has the Broncos as the 12th best team in the NFL, but third best in their division.

2017 AFC West Projections

TEAM WINS LOSSES WIN DIVISION
TEAM WINS LOSSES WIN DIVISION
Raiders 9.1 6.8 37.40%
Chiefs 9.1 6.9 36.30%
Broncos 7.8 8.1 15.20%
Chargers 7.6 8.4 11.10%

The AFC West is the home of the closest projected division-winner race. The Raiders are a slim favorite over the Chiefs by just more than 1 percent. The Broncos and Chargers also are seen as credible threats at just more than 15 and 11 percent, respectively. While the AFC South houses the teams projected to have the easiest schedules, the AFC West is the home of four of the 14 most difficult schedules, as projected by FPI.

The AFC West is easily the most competitive division in football, which makes these ratings ‘too close to call’ in my opinion. The outcome will be determined by how the ball bounces in those critical divisional games between these four teams.

Unfortunately, while they are beating each other up, the New England Patriots will coast their way to home-field advantage and probably another Super Bowl appearance. They are the only team in these ratings with a double-digit percentage probability of winning the Super Bowl and its at 34.7%. The Green Bay Packers come in second with a paltry 9.8% mark and the Broncos at 0.8%.

The odds are stacked. Overall, these ratings are at least an interesting diversion on this Friday morning.