Hello MHR,
Frenchfred is back with a stat oriented article to compare both Broncos QB that will battle for the starting position this summer.
Originally, I wanted to search for some stats from both of them regarding where they were the most confortable. It's a known fact that Siemian was more efficient on his left and right than throwing towards the center of the field. I thought it could be nice to compare that to Lynch, but I didn't find what I was looking for...
As such I used the Champagne discovery method (hazard) to find a new subject to treat = are the Broncos QBs better inside or outside the redzone? And which one is better for each important metric?
The analysis will be divided in 2 parts, so please don't scream "Siemian hater" at me before you have seen the second part.
Before that, I want to highlight that the very low playing time for each QB makes this exercise tricky (especially with Paxton Lynch very limited number of snaps). So those are just stats, it's not a scientific research...
1. Are the QBs more comfortable inside or outside the redzone?
I made a beautiful graph so that I can go faster to the conclusions:
Trevor Siemian | Paxton Lynch | |||
number | percentage | number | percentage | |
outside redzone plays | 446 | 86.3% | 81 | 88.0% |
inside redzone plays | 71 | 13.7% | 11 | 12.0% |
517 | 100.0% | 92 | 100.0% | |
outside redzone Comp | 254 | 87.9% | 43 | 87.8% |
inside redzone Comp | 35 | 12.1% | 6 | 12.2% |
289 | 100.0% | 49 | 100.0% | |
outside redzone Comp% | - | 60.2% | - | 58.9% |
inside redzone Comp% | - | 54.7% | - | 60.0% |
- | 59.5% | - | 59.0% | |
outside redzone yards | 3180 | 93.5% | 458 | 92.2% |
inside redzone yards | 221 | 6.5% | 39 | 7.8% |
3401 | 100.0% | 497 | 100.0% | |
outside redzone 1D | 138 | 88.5% | 21 | 84.0% |
inside redzone 1D | 18 | 11.5% | 4 | 16.0% |
156 | 100.0% | 25 | 100.0% | |
outside redzone TDs | 8 | 44.4% | 0 | 0.0% |
inside redzone TDs | 10 | 55.6% | 2 | 100.0% |
18 | 100.0% | 2 | 100.0% | |
outside redzone INTs | 8 | 80.0% | 1 | 100.0% |
inside redzone INTs | 2 | 20.0% | 0 | 0.0% |
10 | 100.0% | 1 | 100.0% | |
outside redzone Sacks | 24 | 77.4% | 8 | 88.9% |
inside redzone Sacks | 7 | 22.6% | 1 | 11.1% |
31 | 100.0% | 9 | 100.0% | |
outside redzone Sacks yards | -137 | 73.3% | -36 | 85.7% |
inside redzone Sacks yards | -50 | 26.7% | -6 | 14.3% |
-187 | 100.0% | -42 | 100.0% | |
outside redzone Fumbles | 2 | 50.0% | 2 | 100.0% |
inside redzone Fumbles | 2 | 50.0% | 0 | 0.0% |
4 | 100.0% | 2 | 100.0% | |
* run plays are not counted | ||||
** sacks and fumbles are not counted in completion % |
My conclusions:
This graph is pretty clear in terms of personal performance in/out of the Redzone, it is clear that:
- Siemian is more confortable outside the Redzone than inside
- Lynch is more confortable inside the Redzone than outside
But those results are not really a good comparison indicators as they are based on their personal performance and not put in a comparable format.
2. So now, can we get a comparison of them?
I also made a beautiful graph for this part where we should be able to make some comparison between the 2 QBs (the numbers are put on a 100 basis, except for Comp%):
Trevor Siemian on 100 basis | Paxton Lynch on 100 basis | |
outside redzone plays | 86.3 | 88.0 |
inside redzone plays | 13.7 | 12.0 |
100.0 | 100.0 | |
outside redzone Comp | 49.1 | 46.7 |
inside redzone Comp | 6.8 | 6.5 |
55.9 | 53.3 | |
outside redzone Comp% | 60.2% | 58.9% |
inside redzone Comp% | 54.7% | 60.0% |
59.5% | 59.0% | |
outside redzone yards | 615.1 | 497.8 |
inside redzone yards | 42.7 | 42.4 |
657.8 | 540.2 | |
outside redzone 1D | 26.7 | 22.8 |
inside redzone 1D | 3.5 | 4.3 |
30.2 | 27.2 | |
outside redzone TDs | 1.5 | 0.0 |
inside redzone TDs | 1.9 | 2.2 |
3.5 | 2.2 | |
outside redzone INTs | 1.5 | 1.1 |
inside redzone INTs | 0.4 | 0.0 |
1.9 | 1.1 | |
outside redzone Sacks | 4.6 | 8.7 |
inside redzone Sacks | 1.4 | 1.1 |
6.0 | 9.8 | |
outside redzone Sacks yards | -26.5 | -39.1 |
inside redzone Sacks yards | -9.7 | -6.5 |
-36.2 | -45.7 | |
outside redzone Fumbles | 0.4 | 2.2 |
inside redzone Fumbles | 0.4 | 0.0 |
0.8 | 2.2 |
My conclusions:
This graph is also pretty clear, but not as straight forward as the previous one:
- If we look at the total figures (no colours), Siemian performed better overall than Lynch in almost every category
- Siemian is clearly better than Lynch outside the Redzone: all indicators are better except for the INTs indicator, but not by much.
- Lynch is clearly better than Siemian inside the Redzone: all indicators are better except for the Comp and Yards indicators, but are almost identical.
3. What can we conclude from all those (interesting data)?
Not much, because the running game and the Defense play are not taken into account.
But it could be interesting to check during the pre-season game how each QB improved from his 2016 performance:
- Has Lynch found a way to move the ball outside of the Redzone and kept his efficiency there?
- Has Lynch closed the gap that separates him from Siemian?
- Has Siemian found a way to be as efficient in the redzone as he was outside of it?