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Do first-year starting QBs improve in their second year as starters?

On the average, not a whole lot.

Oakland Raiders v Denver Broncos Photo by Dustin Bradford/Getty Images

There’s a question that rides just below the surface of the simmering QB debate:

Do QBs improve in their second year as starters relative to their first year as a starter?

For those who need a refresher, here are Trevor Siemian’s rankings for 2016.

There is little debate that no matter who plays QB for the Broncos, we will need improved quarterback play relative to 2016 in order to have a shot at the title in 2017. So let’s operate under the assumption that Siemian is the starter in 2017 (and no, I don’t care who is the starter as long as a we get improved performance out of our QB).

What does recent history tell us about what to expect from him in his second year as a starting QB in the NFL? For criteria I have only looked at QBs who played their first and second year as starters this century (Kurt Warner being the one exception), and there was a minimum of 32 games started at QB in the NFL to make the list. That left me with 57 quarterbacks.

At the end I’ll share the raw data if you want to see the comparison of first to second year as a starting QB, but this is the most critical portion in the table below.

Note that three of these QBs had the second year as a starter a number of years after their first year as a starter (Kyle Orton, Matthew Stafford and Tarvarius Jackson). Also note that some of these guys were rookies and first time starting QBs while a few were not (Kurt Warner, David Garrard, Aaron Rodgers and Phillip Rivers, to name a few).

A positive value means their second-year number was larger than their first-year number (second-year value minus first-year value).

QB Cmp% Yds TD TD% Int Int% Y/C Y/G Rate ANY/A Sk%
Matthew Stafford 10.2 2771 28 2.8 -4 -2.9 0.7 88.2 36.2 3.34 -0.8
Carson Palmer 6.9 939 14 2.1 -6 -1.8 0.1 17.0 23.8 2.30 -1.9
David Garrard 3.8 774 8 1.4 -6 -2.8 0.1 51.4 21.7 2.21 -1.6
Kyle Orton 6.9 1103 9 1.5 -1 -0.9 1.1 73.5 19.9 2.15 -2.0
Blake Bortles -0.3 1520 24 3.5 1 -0.6 2.1 69.1 18.7 2.28 -2.6
Trent Edwards 9.4 1069 4 0.3 2 -0.3 0.2 29.8 15.0 1.22 1.5
Derek Carr 3.0 717 11 2.1 1 0.3 2.0 44.8 14.5 1.49 1.2
Mark Sanchez 1.0 847 5 0.1 -7 -2.9 -0.7 42.8 12.3 1.31 -1.6
Marc Bulger 3.0 119 -1 0.2 -8 -1.2 0.9 26.8 12.3 1.28 1.3
Blaine Gabbert 7.5 -552 -3 0.3 -5 -0.5 -0.2 18.6 12.0 1.03 -1.5
Christian Ponder 7.8 1082 5 -0.8 -1 -2.0 -1.9 14.9 11.1 0.74 -3.1
Geno Smith 3.9 -521 1 0.8 -8 -1.2 -0.8 -10.0 11.0 0.96 -1.7
Andrew Luck 6.1 -552 0 0.3 -9 -1.3 -1.8 -34.5 10.5 0.40 -0.8
Aaron Rodgers 1.1 396 2 0.3 -6 -1.1 0.9 24.7 9.4 0.83 2.5
Byron Leftwich 3.3 122 1 0.1 -6 -1.5 -0.8 22.2 9.2 0.50 1.1
Joe Flacco 3.1 642 7 0.9 0 -0.4 -0.1 40.1 8.6 0.83 -0.3
Tarvaris Jackson 2.0 1180 5 0 1 -1.2 0.2 46.8 8.4 0.34 2.4
Andy Dalton 4.2 271 7 1.2 3 0.5 -0.1 16.9 7.0 0.03 3.6
David Carr 4.1 -579 0 1.1 -2 1.0 1.0 5.8 6.7 1.66 -9.8
Jason Campbell 2.3 545 1 -0.3 -5 -1.4 -0.5 -4.9 6.7 0.13 2.2
Jay Fieldler 3.6 888 6 0.5 5 0.3 0.3 45.5 5.8 0.51 -0.4
Ryan Tannehill 2.1 619 12 1.6 4 0.2 -0.7 38.7 5.6 -0.23 2.3
Matt Schaub -0.3 802 6 0.8 1 -0.5 0.4 72.9 5.5 0.61 0.5
Vince Young 10.8 347 -3 -1 4 0.9 -1.3 23.1 4.4 -0.09 -0.4
Marcus Mariota -1.0 608 7 0.7 -1 -0.7 0.1 -6.4 4.1 1.04 -4.4
Joey Harrington 5.7 586 5 0.3 6 0.3 -1.4 16.1 4.0 -0.12 -0.2
Teddy Bridgewater 0.9 312 0 -0.4 -3 -1.0 -0.2 -22.6 3.5 0.24 0.2
Tony Romo -0.9 1308 17 1.3 6 -0.2 -0.6 81.8 2.3 -0.02 -1.5
Jameis Winston 2.5 48 6 0.8 3 0.4 -1.1 3.0 1.9 -0.46 1.0
Cam Newton -2.3 -182 -2 -0.2 -5 -0.8 0.7 -11.4 1.7 0.41 0.6
Russell Wilson -1.0 239 0 -0.2 -1 -0.3 0.7 14.9 1.2 0.09 2.1
Eli Manning 4.9 -518 0 0.3 1 0.3 -2.0 -32.3 1.1 -0.64 -0.2
Kyle Boller 2.8 -760 -2 1 1 1.7 0.6 40.0 0.9 0.06 0.3
Josh McCown 3.3 -675 -2 0.6 1 1.6 0.5 24.6 0.8 0.33 -0.8
Ben Roethlisberger -3.7 -236 0 0.5 -2 -0.3 0.8 11.6 0.5 0.60 -1.3
Chad Henne 0.6 423 3 0.4 5 0.8 0.5 14.5 0.2 0.09 0.3
Ryan Fitzpatrick -3.5 -483 1 1.8 1 2.0 2.6 -4.3 -0.3 0.55 -0.8
Tom Brady -1.8 921 10 0.3 2 -0.6 -0.7 45.8 -0.8 0.15 -4.1
Jay Cutler -1.3 1029 5 -0.2 4 -0.1 0.0 64.3 -2.1 0.31 -3.7
Michael Vick 1.5 -623 -2 0.6 4 1.8 0.1 -41.5 -3.5 -1.06 5.2
Kirk Cousins -2.8 751 -4 -1.2 1 0.0 1.1 46.9 -4.4 0.31 -0.9
Colin Kaepernick 2.1 172 -2 -1 2 0.2 -1.5 10.8 -5.2 -1.07 1.2
Sam Bradford -6.5 -1348 -12 -1.4 -9 -0.8 1.4 -3.1 -6.0 -0.24 3.8
Matt Ryan -2.8 -524 6 1.2 3 0.6 -1.9 -6.7 -6.8 -1.41 0.2
Rex Grossman -0.4 -1782 -19 -3 -13 -1.1 -0.6 -23.2 -7.5 -1.30 5.8
J.P. Losman 0.9 -1847 -15 -2.1 -8 0.1 -0.6 -40.2 -8.0 -0.37 -2.5
Drew Brees -3.2 -1176 -6 -0.1 -1 1.2 0.0 -13.7 -9.4 -1.04 1.2
Philip Rivers -1.5 -236 -1 -0.2 6 1.3 -0.5 -14.8 -9.6 -1.06 -0.9
Tyrod Taylor -2.0 -12 -3 -1.4 0 -0.2 -1.3 -15.3 -9.7 -1.03 0.1
Kurt Warner 2.6 -924 -20 -2.1 5 2.6 1.2 39.6 -10.9 -0.34 -0.1
Derek Anderson -6.3 -2172 -20 -2.3 -11 -0.8 -1.3 -75.2 -16.0 -1.75 2.1
Alex Smith -9.4 -1976 -14 -2.6 -12 -1.5 -1.5 -50.0 -17.6 -1.69 0.8
Matt Cassel -8.4 -769 -5 -0.9 5 1.1 -0.5 -35.9 -19.5 -1.78 -0.4
Robert Griffin -5.5 3 -4 -1.6 7 1.3 -0.7 33.1 -20.2 -1.99 0.6
Chad Pennington -5.3 -981 -9 -1.1 6 2.5 0.0 5.9 -21.3 -2.21 2.6
Josh Freeman 1.4 141 -9 -2.4 16 2.7 -1.5 23.8 -21.3 -2.18 -0.6
Nick Foles -4.2 -728 -14 -4.3 8 2.6 -2.6 48.0 -37.8 -3.25 -5.3
Average 1.1 55.1 0.8 0.0 -0.4 -0.1 -0.2 15.7 1.4 0.09 -0.2

First off - let’s focus on the averages. This will give us an idea of what normally happens. We see that completion percentage goes up a little but almost every other stat doesn’t change appreciably. That doesn’t bode well for Siemian as he needs to improve in many areas just to become an average QB.

Now let’s look at the range and see what the best and the worst-case scenarios have been in recent NFL QB history.

Our best example of improvement from year one to year two as a starter is Matthew Stafford. His QB rating went up 36.2 points. He threw 28 more TDs as a second-year starting QB and four fewer interceptions. Stafford’s completion percentage went up 10.2 percent in second year as a starter. Other QBs who performed much better in their second seasons as a starting QB are Carson Palmer, David Garrard, Kyle Orton and Blake Bortles.

Given that the average is near zero, there are plenty of QBs who regressed in their second year as starters as well. The worst of these was Nick Foles, but Josh Freeman, Chad Pennington, Robert Griffin and Alex Smith all regressed significantly in their second year as starting QBs.

Foles threw 14 fewer TDs and eight more INTs. Alex Smith saw his completion percentage go down by almost 10 percent. Kurt Warner and Derek Anderson threw 20 fewer TDs. Derek Anderson and Alex Smith threw for roughly 2,000 fewer yards (admittedly in many fewer starts). Rex Grossman went from being sacked on 4.2 percent of his dropbacks to be being sacked on 10 percent of his passing plays.

One of the reasons why Foles’, Grffin’s and Warner’s numbers in their second years look so bad is that they played at an extremely high level during their first season as starters. Unless you are delusional, it’s hard to say that Siemian played at a high level in 2016 - so he does have plenty of room to improve (as does Paxton Lynch).

Similarly, the guys who made big improvements in their second years generally did so because they were really bad in their first year (but their team stuck with them anyway). While Siemian’s numbers were not great, they were nowhere close to as bad as Matthew Stafford’s numbers (though they were similar to Carson Palmer’s in some ways).

QB Year Age Tm GS QBrec Cmp Att Cmp% Yds TD TD% Int Int% Lng Y/A AY/A Y/C Y/G Rate Sk Yds NY/A ANY/A Sk% 4QC GWD AV
Aaron Rodgers 2008 25 GNB 16 6/10 341 536 63.6 4038 28 5.2 13 2.4 71 7.5 7.5 11.8 252.4 93.8 34 231 6.68 6.64 6 1 2 14
Aaron Rodgers 2009* 26 GNB 16 11/5 350 541 64.7 4434 30 5.5 7 1.3 83 8.2 8.7 12.7 277.1 103.2 50 306 6.98 7.47 8.5 2 2 19
Alex Smith 2006 22 SFO 16 7/9 257 442 58.1 2890 16 3.6 16 3.6 75 6.5 5.6 11.2 180.6 74.8 35 202 5.64 4.8 7.3 1 2 10
Alex Smith 2007 23 SFO 7 2/5 94 193 48.7 914 2 1 4 2.1 45 4.7 4 9.7 130.6 57.2 17 121 3.78 3.11 8.1 2 2 0
Andrew Luck 2012* 23 IND 16 11/5 339 627 54.1 4374 23 3.7 18 2.9 70 7 6.4 12.9 273.4 76.5 41 246 6.18 5.66 6.1 4 7 13
Andrew Luck 2013* 24 IND 16 11/5 343 570 60.2 3822 23 4 9 1.6 73 6.7 6.8 11.1 238.9 87 32 227 5.97 6.06 5.3 4 4 15
Andy Dalton 2011* 24 CIN 16 9/7 300 516 58.1 3398 20 3.9 13 2.5 84 6.6 6.2 11.3 212.4 80.4 24 160 6 5.65 4.4 4 4 11
Andy Dalton 2012 25 CIN 16 10/6 329 528 62.3 3669 27 5.1 16 3 59 6.9 6.6 11.2 229.3 87.4 46 229 5.99 5.68 8 1 3 12
Ben Roethlisberger 2004 22 PIT 13 13-0-0 196 295 66.4 2621 17 5.8 11 3.7 58 8.9 8.4 13.4 187.2 98.1 30 213 7.41 6.93 9.2 5 6 11
Ben Roethlisberger 2005 23 PIT 12 9/3 168 268 62.7 2385 17 6.3 9 3.4 85 8.9 8.7 14.2 198.8 98.6 23 129 7.75 7.53 7.9 2 2 11
Blaine Gabbert 2011 22 JAX 14 4/10 210 413 50.8 2214 12 2.9 11 2.7 74 5.4 4.7 10.5 147.6 65.4 40 293 4.24 3.68 8.8 4
Blaine Gabbert 2012 23 JAX 10 1/9 162 278 58.3 1662 9 3.2 6 2.2 80 6 5.7 10.3 166.2 77.4 22 158 5.01 4.71 7.3 1 1 3
Blake Bortles 2014 22 JAX 13 3/10 280 475 58.9 2908 11 2.3 17 3.6 63 6.1 5 10.4 207.7 69.5 55 345 4.84 3.81 10.4 1 1 5
Blake Bortles 2015 23 JAX 16 5/11 355 606 58.6 4428 35 5.8 18 3 90 7.3 7.1 12.5 276.8 88.2 51 320 6.25 6.09 7.8 3 4 14
Byron Leftwich 2003 23 JAX 13 5/8 239 418 57.2 2819 14 3.3 16 3.8 84 6.7 5.7 11.8 187.9 73 19 90 6.24 5.24 4.3 1 2 9
Byron Leftwich 2004 24 JAX 14 8/6 267 441 60.5 2941 15 3.4 10 2.3 65 6.7 6.3 11 210.1 82.2 25 114 6.07 5.74 5.4 4 4 9
Cam Newton 2011* 22 CAR 16 6/10 310 517 60 4051 21 4.1 17 3.3 91 7.8 7.2 13.1 253.2 84.5 35 260 6.87 6.24 6.3 1 1 19
Cam Newton 2012 23 CAR 16 7/9 280 485 57.7 3869 19 3.9 12 2.5 82 8 7.6 13.8 241.8 86.2 36 244 6.96 6.65 6.9 1 1 16
Carson Palmer 2004 25 CIN 13 6/7 263 432 60.9 2897 18 4.2 18 4.2 76 6.7 5.7 11 222.8 77.3 25 178 5.95 4.96 5.5 2 3 8
Carson Palmer 2005* 26 CIN 16 11/5 345 509 67.8 3836 32 6.3 12 2.4 70 7.5 7.7 11.1 239.8 101.1 19 105 7.07 7.26 3.6 1 3 17
Chad Henne 2009 24 MIA 13 7/6 274 451 60.8 2878 12 2.7 14 3.1 67 6.4 5.5 10.5 205.6 75.2 26 176 5.66 4.85 5.5 3 3 8
Chad Henne 2010 25 MIA 14 6/8 301 490 61.4 3301 15 3.1 19 3.9 57 6.7 5.6 11 220.1 75.4 30 178 6.01 4.94 5.8 0 1 7
Chad Pennington 2002 26 NYJ 12 8/4 275 399 68.9 3120 22 5.5 6 1.5 47 7.8 8.2 11.3 208 104.2 22 135 7.09 7.49 5.2 1 2 12
Chad Pennington 2003 27 NYJ 9 4/5 189 297 63.6 2139 13 4.4 12 4 65 7.2 6.3 11.3 213.9 82.9 25 160 6.15 5.28 7.8 2 2 7
Christian Ponder 2011 23 MIN 10 2/8 158 291 54.3 1853 13 4.5 13 4.5 72 6.4 5.3 11.7 168.5 70.1 30 164 5.26 4.25 9.3 0 1 5
Christian Ponder 2012 24 MIN 16 10/6 300 483 62.1 2935 18 3.7 12 2.5 65 6.1 5.7 9.8 183.4 81.2 32 184 5.34 4.99 6.2 1 2 11
Colin Kaepernick 2013 26 SFO 16 12/4 243 416 58.4 3197 21 5 8 1.9 64 7.7 7.8 13.2 199.8 91.6 39 231 6.52 6.65 8.6 3 4 15
Colin Kaepernick 2014 27 SFO 16 8/8 289 478 60.5 3369 19 4 10 2.1 80 7 6.9 11.7 210.6 86.4 52 344 5.71 5.58 9.8 3 2 12
David Carr 2002 23 HOU 16 4/12 233 444 52.5 2592 9 2 15 3.4 81 5.8 4.7 11.1 162 62.8 76 411 4.19 3.24 14.6 2 3 5
David Carr 2003 24 HOU 11 3/8 167 295 56.6 2013 9 3.1 13 4.4 78 6.8 5.5 12.1 167.8 69.5 15 90 6.2 4.9 4.8 2 2 7
David Garrard 2006 28 JAX 10 5/5 145 241 60.2 1735 10 4.1 9 3.7 49 7.2 6.3 12 157.7 80.5 20 119 6.19 5.41 7.7 9
David Garrard 2007 29 JAX 12 9/3 208 325 64 2509 18 5.5 3 0.9 59 7.7 8.4 12.1 209.1 102.2 21 99 6.97 7.62 6.1 2 3 13
Derek Anderson 2007* 24 CLE 15 10/5 298 527 56.5 3787 29 5.5 19 3.6 78 7.2 6.7 12.7 236.7 82.5 14 109 6.8 6.29 2.6 2 2 14
Derek Anderson 2008 25 CLE 9 3/6 142 283 50.2 1615 9 3.2 8 2.8 70 5.7 5.1 11.4 161.5 66.5 14 87 5.14 4.54 4.7 1 2 3
Derek Carr 2014 23 OAK 16 3/13 348 599 58.1 3270 21 3.5 12 2 77 5.5 5.3 9.4 204.4 76.6 24 149 5.01 4.82 3.9 1 1 5
Derek Carr 2015* 24 OAK 16 7/9 350 573 61.1 3987 32 5.6 13 2.3 68 7 7.1 11.4 249.2 91.1 31 230 6.22 6.31 5.1 4 4 13
Drew Brees 2002 23 SDG 16 8/8 320 526 60.8 3284 17 3.2 16 3 52 6.2 5.5 10.3 205.3 76.9 24 180 5.64 4.95 4.4 2 4 10
Drew Brees 2003 24 SDG 11 2/9 205 356 57.6 2108 11 3.1 15 4.2 68 5.9 4.6 10.3 191.6 67.5 21 178 5.12 3.91 5.6 0 1 6
Eli Manning 2005 24 NYG 16 11/5 294 557 52.8 3762 24 4.3 17 3.1 78 6.8 6.2 12.8 235.1 75.9 28 184 6.12 5.63 4.8 1 2 14
Eli Manning 2006 25 NYG 16 8/8 301 522 57.7 3244 24 4.6 18 3.4 55 6.2 5.6 10.8 202.8 77 25 186 5.59 4.99 4.6 2 2 11
Geno Smith 2013 23 NYJ 16 8/8 247 443 55.8 3046 12 2.7 21 4.7 69 6.9 5.3 12.3 190.4 66.5 43 315 5.62 4.17 8.8 2 5 7
Geno Smith 2014 24 NYJ 13 3/10 219 367 59.7 2525 13 3.5 13 3.5 74 6.9 6 11.5 180.4 77.5 28 175 5.95 5.13 7.1 1 2 7
J.P. Losman 2006 25 BUF 16 7/9 268 429 62.5 3051 19 4.4 14 3.3 83 7.1 6.5 11.4 190.7 84.9 47 332 5.71 5.19 9.9 1 3 10
J.P. Losman 2007 26 BUF 7 2/5 111 175 63.4 1204 4 2.3 6 3.4 85 6.9 5.8 10.8 150.5 76.9 14 103 5.83 4.82 7.4 2 3 4
Jameis Winston 2015* 21 TAM 16 6/10 312 535 58.3 4042 22 4.1 15 2.8 68 7.6 7.1 13 252.6 84.2 27 190 6.85 6.44 4.8 2 3 13
Jameis Winston 2016 22 TAM 16 9/7 345 567 60.8 4090 28 4.9 18 3.2 45 7.2 6.8 11.9 255.6 86.1 35 239 6.4 5.98 5.8 1 3 12
Jason Campbell 2007 26 WAS 13 6/7 250 417 60 2700 12 2.9 11 2.6 54 6.5 5.9 10.8 207.7 77.6 21 110 5.91 5.33 4.8 1 2 9
Jason Campbell 2008 27 WAS 16 8/8 315 506 62.3 3245 13 2.6 6 1.2 67 6.4 6.4 10.3 202.8 84.3 38 266 5.48 5.46 7 1 3 10
Jay Cutler 2007 24 DEN 16 7/9 297 467 63.6 3497 20 4.3 14 3 68 7.5 7 11.8 218.6 88.1 27 153 6.77 6.3 5.5 2 3 12
Jay Cutler 2008* 25 DEN 16 8/8 384 616 62.3 4526 25 4.1 18 2.9 93 7.3 6.8 11.8 282.9 86 11 69 7.11 6.61 1.8 3 4 15
Joe Flacco 2008 23 BAL 16 11/5 257 428 60 2971 14 3.3 12 2.8 70 6.9 6.3 11.6 185.7 80.3 32 276 5.86 5.29 7 1 2 11
Joe Flacco 2009 24 BAL 16 9/7 315 499 63.1 3613 21 4.2 12 2.4 72 7.2 7 11.5 225.8 88.9 36 218 6.35 6.12 6.7 1 2 13
Joey Harrington 2002 24 DET 12 3/9 215 429 50.1 2294 12 2.8 16 3.7 64 5.3 4.2 10.7 163.9 59.9 8 75 5.08 3.98 1.8 2 2 4
Joey Harrington 2003 25 DET 16 5/11 309 554 55.8 2880 17 3.1 22 4 72 5.2 4 9.3 180 63.9 9 55 5.02 3.86 1.6 2 2 5
Josh Freeman 2010 22 TAM 16 10/6 291 474 61.4 3451 25 5.3 6 1.3 64 7.3 7.8 11.9 215.7 95.9 28 195 6.49 6.94 5.6 5 5 14
Josh Freeman 2011 23 TAM 15 4/11 346 551 62.8 3592 16 2.9 22 4 65 6.5 5.3 10.4 239.5 74.6 29 164 5.91 4.76 5 1 2 8
Josh McCown 2004 25 ARI 13 6/7 233 408 57.1 2511 11 2.7 10 2.5 48 6.2 5.6 10.8 179.4 74.1 31 263 5.12 4.6 7.1 2 2 7
Josh McCown 2005 26 ARI 6 3/3 163 270 60.4 1836 9 3.3 11 4.1 49 6.8 5.6 11.3 204 74.9 18 101 6.02 4.93 6.3 5
Kirk Cousins 2015 27 WAS 16 9/7 379 543 69.8 4166 29 5.3 11 2 78 7.7 7.8 11 260.4 101.6 26 186 6.99 7.14 4.6 2 3 12
Kirk Cousins 2016* 28 WAS 16 8/7 406 606 67 4917 25 4.1 12 2 80 8.1 8 12.1 307.3 97.2 23 190 7.52 7.45 3.7 4 4 15
Kurt Warner 1999*+ 28 STL 16 13-3-0 325 499 65.1 4353 41 8.2 13 2.6 75 8.7 9.2 13.4 272.1 109.2 29 201 7.86 8.31 5.5 1 2 19
Kurt Warner 2000* 29 STL 11 8/3 235 347 67.7 3429 21 6.1 18 5.2 85 9.9 8.8 14.6 311.7 98.3 20 115 9.03 7.97 5.4 1 2 15
Kyle Boller 2004 23 BAL 16 9/7 258 464 55.6 2559 13 2.8 11 2.4 57 5.5 5 9.9 159.9 70.9 35 247 4.63 4.16 7 2 2 7
Kyle Boller 2005 24 BAL 9 4/5 171 293 58.4 1799 11 3.8 12 4.1 47 6.1 5 10.5 199.9 71.8 23 146 5.23 4.22 7.3 2 3 3
Kyle Orton 2005 23 CHI 15 10/5 190 368 51.6 1869 9 2.4 13 3.5 54 5.1 4 9.8 124.6 59.7 30 190 4.22 3.2 7.5 0 1 2
Kyle Orton 2008 26 CHI 15 9/6 272 465 58.5 2972 18 3.9 12 2.6 65 6.4 6 10.9 198.1 79.6 27 160 5.72 5.35 5.5 2 2 9
Marc Bulger 2003* 26 STL 15 12/3 336 532 63.2 3845 22 4.1 22 4.1 48 7.2 6.2 11.4 256.3 81.4 37 288 6.25 5.28 6.5 4 4 14
Marc Bulger 2004 27 STL 14 8/6 321 485 66.2 3964 21 4.3 14 2.9 56 8.2 7.7 12.3 283.1 93.7 41 302 6.96 6.56 7.8 4 5 11
Marcus Mariota 2015 22 TEN 12 3/9 230 370 62.2 2818 19 5.1 10 2.7 61 7.6 7.4 12.3 234.8 91.5 38 258 6.27 6.1 9.3 2 2 9
Marcus Mariota 2016 23 TEN 15 8/7 276 451 61.2 3426 26 5.8 9 2 60 7.6 7.9 12.4 228.4 95.6 23 156 6.9 7.14 4.9 2 2 1
Mark Sanchez 2009 23 NYJ 15 8/7 196 364 53.8 2444 12 3.3 20 5.5 65 6.7 4.9 12.5 162.9 63 26 195 5.77 4.07 6.7 1 1 6
Mark Sanchez 2010 24 NYJ 16 11/5 278 507 54.8 3291 17 3.4 13 2.6 74 6.5 6 11.8 205.7 75.3 27 171 5.84 5.38 5.1 4 6 9
Matt Cassel 2008 26 NWE 15 10/5 327 516 63.4 3693 21 4.1 11 2.1 76 7.2 7 11.3 230.8 89.4 47 219 6.17 6.04 8.3 2 2 17
Matt Cassel 2009 27 KAN 15 4/11 271 493 55 2924 16 3.2 16 3.2 61 5.9 5.1 10.8 194.9 69.9 42 243 5.01 4.26 7.9 1 2 7
Matt Ryan 2008 23 ATL 16 11/5 265 434 61.1 3440 16 3.7 11 2.5 70 7.9 7.5 13 215 87.7 17 104 7.4 7.01 3.8 2 4 14
Matt Ryan 2009 24 ATL 14 9/5 263 451 58.3 2916 22 4.9 14 3.1 90 6.5 6 11.1 208.3 80.9 19 92 6.01 5.6 4 1 3 10
Matt Schaub 2007 26 HOU 11 4/7 192 289 66.4 2241 9 3.1 9 3.1 77 7.8 7 11.7 203.7 87.2 16 126 6.93 6.2 5.2 1 1 8
Matt Schaub 2008 27 HOU 11 6/5 251 380 66.1 3043 15 3.9 10 2.6 65 8 7.6 12.1 276.6 92.7 23 149 7.18 6.81 5.7 2 2 10
Matthew Stafford 2009 21 DET 10 2/8 201 377 53.3 2267 13 3.4 20 5.3 75 6 4.3 11.3 226.7 61 24 169 5.23 3.64 6 1 1 3
Matthew Stafford 2011 23 DET 16 10/6 421 663 63.5 5038 41 6.2 16 2.4 73 7.6 7.7 12 314.9 97.2 36 257 6.84 6.98 5.2 3 4 16
Michael Vick 2002* 22 ATL 15 8/6 231 421 54.9 2936 16 3.8 8 1.9 74 7 6.9 12.7 195.7 81.6 33 206 6.01 5.93 7.3 2 2 17
Michael Vick 2004* 24 ATL 15 11/4 181 321 56.4 2313 14 4.4 12 3.7 62 7.2 6.4 12.8 154.2 78.1 46 266 5.58 4.87 12.5 3 4 15
Nick Foles 2013* 24 PHI 10 8/2 203 317 64 2891 27 8.5 2 0.6 63 9.1 10.5 14.2 222.4 119.2 28 173 7.88 9.18 8.1 1 1 11
Nick Foles 2014 25 PHI 8 6/2 186 311 59.8 2163 13 4.2 10 3.2 68 7 6.3 11.6 270.4 81.4 9 74 6.53 5.93 2.8 2 3 5
Philip Rivers 2006* 25 SDG 16 14-2-0 284 460 61.7 3388 22 4.8 9 2 57 7.4 7.4 11.9 211.8 92 27 144 6.66 6.73 5.5 4 4 18
Philip Rivers 2007 26 SDG 16 11/5 277 460 60.2 3152 21 4.6 15 3.3 49 6.9 6.3 11.4 197 82.4 22 163 6.2 5.67 4.6 1 1 13
Rex Grossman 2006 26 CHI 16 13-3-0 262 480 54.6 3193 23 4.8 20 4.2 62 6.7 5.7 12.2 199.6 73.9 21 142 6.09 5.21 4.2 2 3 10
Rex Grossman 2007 27 CHI 7 2/5 122 225 54.2 1411 4 1.8 7 3.1 59 6.3 5.2 11.6 176.4 66.4 25 198 4.85 3.91 10 2 2 3
Robert Griffin 2012* 22 WAS 15 9/6 258 393 65.6 3200 20 5.1 5 1.3 88 8.1 8.6 12.4 213.3 102.4 30 217 7.05 7.47 7.1 3 2 18
Robert Griffin 2013 23 WAS 13 3/10 274 456 60.1 3203 16 3.5 12 2.6 62 7 6.5 11.7 246.4 82.2 38 274 5.93 5.48 7.7 1 2 10
Russell Wilson 2012* 24 SEA 16 11/5 252 393 64.1 3118 26 6.6 10 2.5 67 7.9 8.1 12.4 194.9 100 33 203 6.84 7.01 7.7 4 5 16
Russell Wilson 2013* 25 SEA 16 13-3-0 257 407 63.1 3357 26 6.4 9 2.2 80 8.2 8.5 13.1 209.8 101.2 44 272 6.84 7.1 9.8 4 5 16
Ryan Fitzpatrick 2008 26 CIN 12 4/7 221 372 59.4 1905 8 2.2 9 2.4 79 5.1 4.5 8.6 146.5 70 38 193 4.18 3.58 9.3 3
Ryan Fitzpatrick 2009 27 BUF 8 4/4 127 227 55.9 1422 9 4 10 4.4 98 6.3 5.1 11.2 142.2 69.7 21 127 5.22 4.13 8.5 1 2 3
Ryan Tannehill 2012 24 MIA 16 7/9 282 484 58.3 3294 12 2.5 13 2.7 80 6.8 6.1 11.7 205.9 76.1 35 234 5.9 5.23 6.7 1 1 10
Ryan Tannehill 2013 25 MIA 16 8/8 355 588 60.4 3913 24 4.1 17 2.9 67 6.7 6.2 11 244.6 81.7 58 399 5.44 5 9 4 3 10
Sam Bradford 2010 23 STL 16 7/9 354 590 60 3512 18 3.1 15 2.5 49 6 5.4 9.9 219.5 76.5 34 244 5.24 4.73 5.4 9
Sam Bradford 2011 24 STL 10 1/9 191 357 53.5 2164 6 1.7 6 1.7 68 6.1 5.6 11.3 216.4 70.5 36 248 4.88 4.49 9.2 1 1 3
Tarvaris Jackson 2007 24 MIN 12 8/4 171 294 58.2 1911 9 3.1 12 4.1 71 6.5 5.3 11.2 159.3 70.8 19 70 5.88 4.73 6.1 1 2 6
Tarvaris Jackson 2011 28 SEA 14 7/7 271 450 60.2 3091 14 3.1 13 2.9 61 6.9 6.2 11.4 206.1 79.2 42 293 5.69 5.07 8.5
Teddy Bridgewater 2014 22 MIN 12 6/6 259 402 64.4 2919 14 3.5 12 3 87 7.3 6.6 11.3 224.5 85.2 39 249 6.05 5.46 8.8 3 3 9
Teddy Bridgewater 2015* 23 MIN 16 11/5 292 447 65.3 3231 14 3.1 9 2 52 7.2 6.9 11.1 201.9 88.7 44 307 5.96 5.7 9 1 1 13
Tom Brady 2001* 24 NWE 14 11/3 264 413 63.9 2843 18 4.4 12 2.9 91 6.9 6.4 10.8 189.5 86.5 41 216 5.79 5.39 9 4 5 12
Tom Brady 2002 25 NWE 16 9/7 373 601 62.1 3764 28 4.7 14 2.3 49 6.3 6.1 10.1 235.3 85.7 31 190 5.66 5.54 4.9 2 3 13
Tony Romo 2006* 26 DAL 10 6/4 220 337 65.3 2903 19 5.6 13 3.9 56 8.6 8 13.2 181.4 95.1 21 124 7.76 7.19 5.9 2 3 12
Tony Romo 2007* 27 DAL 16 13-3-0 335 520 64.4 4211 36 6.9 19 3.7 59 8.1 7.8 12.6 263.2 97.4 24 176 7.42 7.17 4.4 2 2 17
Trent Edwards 2007 24 BUF 9 5/4 151 269 56.1 1630 7 2.6 8 3 70 6.1 5.2 10.8 163 70.4 12 105 5.43 4.64 4.3 1 2 4
Trent Edwards 2008 25 BUF 14 7/7 245 374 65.5 2699 11 2.9 10 2.7 65 7.2 6.6 11 192.8 85.4 23 143 6.44 5.86 5.8 3 3 9
Tyrod Taylor 2015* 26 BUF 14 7/6 242 380 63.7 3035 20 5.3 6 1.6 63 8 8.3 12.5 216.8 99.4 36 212 6.79 7.1 8.7 1 2 13
Tyrod Taylor 2016 27 BUF 15 7/8 269 436 61.7 3023 17 3.9 6 1.4 84 6.9 7.1 11.2 201.5 89.7 42 192 5.92 6.07 8.8 1 1 15
Vince Young 2006* 23 TEN 13 8/5 184 357 51.5 2199 12 3.4 13 3.6 53 6.2 5.2 12 146.6 66.7 25 129 5.42 4.52 6.5 4 5 9
Vince Young 2007 24 TEN 15 9/6 238 382 62.3 2546 9 2.4 17 4.5 73 6.7 5.1 10.7 169.7 71.1 25 157 5.87 4.43 6.1 9
Jay Fieldler 2000 29 MIA 15 10/5 204 357 57.1 2402 14 3.9 14 3.9 61 6.7 5.7 11.8 160.1 74.5 23 129 5.98 5.06 6.1 2 2 10
Jay Fieldler 2001 30 MIA 16 11/5 273 450 60.7 3290 20 4.4 19 4.2 74 7.3 6.3 12.1 205.6 80.3 27 178 6.52 5.57 5.7 4 4 13

Poll

Assuming Trevor Siemian is the starter in 2017, what do you expect his stats to look like?

This poll is closed

  • 32%
    much better than 2016 (explain in comments)
    (243 votes)
  • 49%
    a little better than 2016
    (370 votes)
  • 13%
    essentially the same as 2016
    (99 votes)
  • 3%
    a little worse than 2016
    (25 votes)
  • 0%
    much worse than 2016 (explain in comments)
    (5 votes)
742 votes total Vote Now