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Comparing Trevor Siemian and Brock Osweiler in 2016

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Let’s find out which quarterback performed better in each situation.

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NFL: Denver Broncos at San Diego Chargers Jake Roth-USA TODAY Sports

Over the holiday weekend, we took a look at a whole bunch of quarterback stats from Pro Football Focus. In watching every play they do a really nice job of gathering data for comparative purposes.

Who’s the best playaction passer in the league? Who is the best quarterback at throwing under pressure? Which quarterback was hit the most often while throwing? Who’s the best QB at throwing when there is no pressure? What is the average time that any quarterback has in the pocket before they throw? How do they fare when they have less than their average time? How do they fare when they have more than their average time?

While I would love to just drop all of the data here, that is not allowed by PFF. What I can do is tell you where Trevor Siemian and Brock Osweiler ranked last season among the 29 (or 34) qualifying quarterbacks (Paxton Lynch did not have enough passes to qualify). I will also show the best and the worst in each advanced stat category for context if it is not either of the two veteran quarterbacks on the Denver Broncos roster.

This is not an attempt to stir up quarterback controversy and should no be read as such. This is just me, having a new data set and wanting to show you what that data tells me.

Note that for Trevor Siemian and Brock Osweiler they will be listed as TS and BO after the first rating - also the first number is their rank and the second number is their value is that stat.

PFF passer rating

Best, Tom Brady 101.9

23. Trevor Siemian 83.9

28. Brock Osweiler 77.9

Worst, Ryan Fitzpatrick 77.1

No surprise here. Both Trevor and Brock were in the bottom third of QBs by just about every rating in 2016.

Adjusted Completion % (removing throw aways, spikes and drops)

Best, Sam Bradford - 80.9%

23. TS 70.0%

27. BO 68.9%

Worst, Cam Newton - 65.4%

Drop % (percentage of passes that were dropped by receivers)

Best, Marcus Mariota 2.7%

4. TS 3.5%

14. BO 4.7%

Worst, Ryan Fitzpatrick 7.4%

% of passes where they were hit as they were throwing

Best, Derek Carr 0.17%

13. BO 0.90%

18. TS 1.32%

Worst, Dak Prescott 2.34%

This is interesting since Dak had arguably the best OL in the league in 2016.

Throw-Away % (% of dropbacks where QB threw ball away because of pressure or no open receivers)

Highest, Philip Rivers 7.4%

4. TS 5.3%

13. BO 3.4%

Lowest, Eli Manning 1.6%

Batted ball % (percentage of passes deflected/tipped behind or at the LOS)

Lowest, Derek Carr 0.5%

20. BO 1.99%

25. TS 2.64%

Highest, Blake Bortles 2.87%

Average time in the pocket

Highest, Tyrod Taylor 3.35s

12. TS 2.65s

14. BO 2.54s

Lowest, Brees 2.37s

Average time until throw

Highest, Tyrod Taylor 2.97s

10. TS 2.55s

12. BO 2.54s

Lowest, Alex Smith 2.23s

Average time to sack

Smallest, Carson Palmer 3.00s

4. BO 3.09s

16. TS 3.28s

Largest, Taylor 4.62s

When Brock got sacked in 2016 it was quick. Trevor was right on the average for the league in 2016.

Average time until QB decided to run with the ball

Smallest, Case Keenum 3.84s

8. BO 4.61s

15. TS 4.98s

Largest, Aaron Rodgers 6.47s

PFF passer rating when throwing at less than player average time to throw

Best, Matt Ryan 116.5

26. TS 85.9

27. BO 80.9

Worst, Fitzpatrick 70.4

PFF passer rating when throwing at more than player average time to throw

Best, Ryan 118.2

16. TS 83.1

29. (of 30) BO 61.3

Worst, Bortles 59.8

There was clear difference here in 2016 between TS and BO. Trevor was average when he had longer to throw, but he was well below average when he threw the ball quickly. Brock was almost the worst in the league regardless of whether he threw “early” or “late”.

Deep Ball PFF Passer Rating

Best, Ryan 136.1

17. TS 83.5

27. BO 37.7

Worst, Bortles 6.4

PFF does not count end-of-half or end-of-game Hail Mary passes. TS was about average for the league, but he would have had a higher rating on deep passes were it not for drops.

Deep Drop % (% of deep passes that were dropped by receivers)

Best, (tied) Andy Dalton, Mariota and Taylor 0.0%

24. BO 6.35%

Worst, TS 10.42%

I did not realize this. According to PFF, Trevor had 48 deep passes in 2016 and 5 of them were dropped. That was the highest percentage of dropped deep passes in the league, by far. The next worst was Bradford who had 8.51% of his deep passing attempts dropped by his receivers. It would be interesting to play the what-if game on those five deep dropped passes and think about where Trevor’s ranking on Deep Ball passer rating would be if those were all caught. PFF factors out those drops when they calculate this next stat

Deep Accuracy (adjusted completion %)

Best, Bradford 57.4%

17. TS 39.6%

27. BO 25.4%

Worst, Bortles 23.5%

Play-action passer rating

Best, Tom Brady 128.1

22. TS 85.4

Worst, BO 66.6

Trevor was not very good on play-action plays last season, but Brock was the league worst (only 27 qualifying QBs). Trevor was about the same on play-action and non-play-action. It’s interesting to note that Derek Carr was 25th (80.6). Carr was 6th in the league when NOT using play-action (99.9)

Non-play-action passer rating

Best Ryan 116.7

19. TS 84.4

Worst, BO 73.3

Brock was a little better when NOT using play-action in 2016, but he was still worst in the league (again with 27 qualifiers). Trevor was about the same whether he was play-action passing or not.

PFF passer rating when pressured

Best Rodgers 93.8

20. TS 61.6

24. BO 49.9

Worst, Carson Wentz 32.8

This is interesting because Wentz, Prescott, Siemian and Osweiler were the first first year NFL starting QBs who threw enough passes to qualify for most of these rankings (Dak was 9th 75.8). Yes, I did not count Brock’s 7 starts in 2015. We can argue about whether he should be classified as a first year full-time starting QB for 2016 in the comments if you wish.

Pressure % (% of dropbacks where QB was pressured)

Best, Carr 23.9%

19. TS 36.0%

23. BO 38.5%

Worst, Andrew Luck 44.4%

Both Trevor and Brock were closer to the bottom than the top in terms of how often they were pressured in 2016. Only two other QBs were pressured on less the one quarter of their dropbacks (Roethlisberger 24.2%) and Brees (24.4%). The Faiders OL last season was great at pass blocking.

Sack% when pressured

Best, Tom Brady 10.6%

5. BO 12.7%

18. TS 16.2%

Worst, Andy Dalton 22.6%

This is the first stat where Brock was rated higher than Trevor last season. Brock was good at not getting sacked when he was pressured.

INT% when pressured

Best, Ryan 0.00%

11. TS 1.97%

24. BO 3.98%

Worst, Ryan Tannehill 7.52%

While Trevor was under pressure a little more than the average starting quarterback in 2016, he was good at NOT throwing picks when he was under pressure.

PFF passer rating when NOT pressured

Best, Ryan 128.9

19. TS 95.0

27. BO 83.9

Worst, Fitzpatrick 80.0

Again neither QB was very good NOT pressured. Trevor was about the same (in terms of ranking) while Brock was actually more highly ranked when pressured than when not.

INT% when NOT pressured

Best, Brady 0.00%

19. TS 2.10%

25. BO 2.69%

Worst, Fitzpatrick 3.87%

So there you have it. A whole punch of data to chew on and argue over (if you so desire). Honestly, there isn’t much here that surprises me given the other qb stats that I have looked at from 2016.

Poll

In which of the listed stats do you think Siemian will improve the most in 2017?

This poll is closed

  • 30%
    PFF passer rating
    (217 votes)
  • 4%
    Adjusted Completion %
    (34 votes)
  • 2%
    Drop%
    (16 votes)
  • 0%
    % of batted passes
    (6 votes)
  • 1%
    Throw away %
    (8 votes)
  • 3%
    Average time in pocket
    (23 votes)
  • 7%
    Average time to throw
    (54 votes)
  • 0%
    Average time until run
    (3 votes)
  • 2%
    Passer rating on quick throws
    (20 votes)
  • 0%
    Passer rating on "delayed" throws
    (4 votes)
  • 7%
    Deep ball passer rating
    (51 votes)
  • 5%
    Deep drop%
    (39 votes)
  • 4%
    Deep accuracy
    (34 votes)
  • 2%
    Passer rating when pressured
    (15 votes)
  • 2%
    Passer rating when not pressured
    (16 votes)
  • 2%
    Pressure %
    (15 votes)
  • 0%
    INT% when pressured
    (1 vote)
  • 0%
    INT% when not pressured
    (7 votes)
  • 21%
    "Whorfin"
    (155 votes)
718 votes total Vote Now