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Baker Mayfield has fourth highest QBASE ever recorded by Football Outsiders

Stats only matter to point, but when you find a stat that is reasonably accurate in predicting success at the NFL level when looking at the very top and very bottom, it matters.

NFL: Combine Brian Spurlock-USA TODAY Sports

The Denver Broncos are still looking into quarterbacks very heavily for the top end of the 2018 NFL Draft, so we continue looking at measurables that might help us figure out which players are likely to find the most success at the next level.

QBASE is one of those measurables. It stands for Quarterback-Adjusted-Stats-and-Experience and was created by Football Outsiders. It has a wide range and though its predictive qualities are a bit of a mixed bag in the middle range of their scores, its quite accurate once you reach the top end and the very bottom of the scoring range.

Here is how QBASE ranked each of the top quarterbacks in this draft class:

  1. Baker Mayfield (1480 QBASE)
  2. Lamar Jackson (656 QBASE)
  3. Josh Rosen (623 QBASE)
  4. Sam Darnold (412 QBASE)
  5. Mason Rudolph (343 QBASE)
  6. Luke Falk (277 QBASE)
  7. Kyle Lauletta (273 QBASE)
  8. Josh Allen (-83 QBASE)

As you can see, the middle range seems to be between 200-500 and the quality first round products are above 600. According to this measurable anyway.

Why does it matter?

Well here are the Top 10 QBASE scores since 1997:

  1. Philip Rivers (1,964 QBASE)
  2. Carson Palmer (1,916 QBASE)
  3. Donovan McNabb (1,799 QBASE)
  4. Baker Mayfield (1,480 QBASE)
  5. Russell Wilson (1,288 QBASE)
  6. Peyton Manning (1,279 QBASE)
  7. Marcus Mariota (1,277 QBASE)
  8. Byron Leftwich (1,216 QBASE)
  9. Aaron Rodgers (1,216 QBASE)
  10. Ben Roethlisberger (1,211 QBASE)

This list is the primary reason I wanted to share this info with Broncos fans. That’s elite company Mayfield has entered. And although I’d be happy with Jackson or Rosen, it’s hard to argue the “safeness” of picking Mayfield considering the group he is joining here.

On the other end of the spectrum, you have Josh Allen who scored a negative QBASE. There have only been 27 quarterbacks drafted in the Top 100 with a negative QBASE and Football Outsiders noted that the two best quarterbacks out of that group was Josh McCown and Brian Griese. They then went on to include others like Mark Sanchez, Kyle Boller, Rex Grossman, Josh Freeman, and Patrick Ramsey.

I’d like to close out mentioning Lamar Jackson again. His QBASE doesn’t even consider his running abilities, so the fact that he is ranked so high shows you how stupid some front offices are in considering him a wide receiver. Some team is going to get great value for Jackson, so good for them.

If you have ESPN Insider, definitely check it out. They dig deep into each of the top quarterbacks and explains how they measured up in their QBASE scores.

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