The Denver Broncos are heavily researching the top four quarterback prospects in the 2018 NFL Draft. With the Cleveland Browns likely to take one with the first overall pick and the New York Jets trading up to the third overall pick to take another, the Broncos may need to consider making a trade with the New York Giants for the second overall pick.
Before you have a heart attack, Albert Breer of MMQB noted that the Broncos are a team that is believed to be unlikely to move up in the draft.
The Broncos had Josh Rosen to Denver on Wednesday, will have Josh Allen in next week and Mayfield the week after, and have a private workout set for Friday in L.A. with Sam Darnold. And I don’t think this is all smoke. What I know is that they’ve been considered, through this offseason, as a team that’s unlikely to trade up. Could that change? Well, if QBs go 1-2-3, and one they like is there at 4, flip-flopping with Cleveland (like Chicago did to get Mitch Trubisky last year) isn’t inconceivable, given that the Browns might well have a market for the pick.
However, if they were to trade up. What would it cost?
According to the NFL Draft Value Chart, the Broncos would need to make up 900 points to trade up to the No. 2 spot with the Giants. That’s a big trade.
By comparison, the Jets moved up the same number of spots with the Colts and needed to make up an 800 point difference. They gave up their 6th pick in the first round, the 37th overall and 49th overall second round picks and a 2019 second round pick.
Using the draft value chart as a guide, the Jets were already 300 points over on value before throwing in that 2019 second round pick. When trading a pick from the future, you generally give a point value a round lower. That makes the 2019 second round pick a third rounder. If you assume that, the Jets gave up a whooping 2,800 points for a pick worth 2,200 on the chart.
That’s how much you overpay for a franchise quarterback in today’s quarterback-deficient NFL.
Given that, the Broncos would likely need to trade their first and second round picks this year and their first rounder next year to move up to the second overall pick. Even then, the draft value chart would put the Broncos a mere 180 points over the 2,600 price tag for that second overall pick.
It’s also likely the best deal the Giants could get from any other team in the NFL this year. They’d remain in the Top 5 and would likely presume another down year from Denver in 2019, which means another high first round pick.
The only question then would be whether John Elway likes a quarterback enough to give up some serious draft capital to acquire him.
In my opinion, if you are that convinced then you might as well pull the trigger. Besides, how confident am I that Elway’s team will hit on those other picks anyway?
Now as Breer noted, moving up one spot is a little more doable. The cost difference would be a mere fourth round pick, which is a much more reasonable move to make than going from five to two.
Should the Broncos trade up if they really like one of the quarterbacks?
This poll is closed
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