To recycle (a head coach) or not?

Since 2000 their have been 116 hirings and firings of NFL head coaches - 38 of those have been “retread” head coaches (32.8%), meaning that they have been a head coach (not just interim) before in the NFL. That number is lower than I would have expected since it seems that the NFL keeps bringing around the same few tired head coaches and giving them one more shot. What this also means is that 78 of the head coaches hired this century in the NFL had zero NFL head coaching experience when they were hired (67.8%).

Why is the relevant? There are five candidates that the Broncos are rumored to be interested in for the vacant head coaching spot of our franchise: Chuck Pagano, Vic Fangio, Mike Munchak, Zac Taylor and Brian Flores. Pagano and Munchak have been NFL head coaches before. The other three guys have not. That’s great, Joe. Why should we care?

Ron Chenoy-USA TODAY Sports

Ron Chenoy-USA TODAY Sports

They ^^^^^ are why: in recent Bronco history we have hired two retreads, John Fox and Gary Kubiak, and two newbie head coaches in Josh McDaniel and Vance Joseph. By and large the retreads were successful while the newbies were not - both being fired during or immediately after their second season. So what does NFL history tell us about the success or failure of newbie head coaches vs retreads? Let’s delve into this.

I looked at 74 (of the 400+) men who have been NFL head coaches - focusing mostly on coaches from the past 30 years. I used winning percentage as my main measure of success (although I was told I should use Super Bowl victories as a factor). I asked these questions:

1. How many only coached for one franchise? - 23 of the 74. I was surprised there were that many, but quite a few of these guys coached 40-50 years ago. I also excluded guys who only were a head coach for one or two seasons. Every coach of the 74 has at least 40 wins.

Note that Chuck Pagano has only coached for the Colts - and he has one of the lowest winning percentages on the list (one reason why he got fired). In his one season without a #1 overall pick playing QB for him (both Peyton Manning and Andrew Luck were #1 overall picks) his team went 4-12.

I should also note that first time head coaches that failed miserably and were not given a second chance are not on this list, so it is skewed towards those who were successful enough to last at least four or five years with the team that gave them their first shot.

2. How many of these coaches improved in their second stint as a head coach? answer: 13 That is more than I would have expected. When coaches did improve in their second stint, the average was an improvement of 18% with Lou Saban having the biggest improvement (31%) while Andy Reid’s 9% improvement with the Chiefs is the lowest. Note that I did not count a change of 5% or less as an improvement (or degradation) of a coach’s winning percentage. The poster child for improvement in their second HC job (at least in the modern NFL) is Bill Belicheat. Mike Shanahan was also quite good in his second stint as a head coach as was John Fox - both in Denver.

3. How many had no change in their second HC job relative to their first? answer: 11

Remember that if the change is 5% or less, I am not counting it as change.

We can see that this list has two Hall of Fame coaches on it (Ewbanks and Allen) and one who will probably be in the Hall based on his two Super Bowl Victories (Tom Coughlin). I should note that while George Allen’s winning percentage did not change much, it was really good in both is head coaching stints. Oddly enough, Tom Coughlin’s was exactly the same in New York and in Jacksonville - 53.1%.

4. How many got worse in their second HC gig? answer: 27

Wait, so more often than not, these guys do worse in their second gig? Why does the NFL keep recycling them then? answer: They are a “known” quantity and there is a hope that they can be the next Belicheat. That is one reason why Adam Gase and Josh McDaniels are both getting interest to fill one of the eight current head coaching vacancies in the NFL.

Some of these coaches failed spectacularly in their second head coaching jobs - for various reasons. George Seifert went from a franchise loaded with talent (49ers) to a franchise bereft of it (Panthers) as did Steve Mariucci (49ers to Lions). Dom Capers went from a team that he built from the ground up (Panthers) to a team that he was unable to repeat that same building process (Texans). Tom Flores went from a team with a fanatical/activist owner (Faiders - where he won two Super Bowls) to a team with no real guidance from the owner or the GM (Seahawks).

I should note that some of those who got worse in their second stint, improved in their 3rd stint - Bill Parcells, Pete Carroll, Jack Pardee and Norv Turner were all better in their 3rd head coaching positions in the NFL than in their second.

So you have seen the data. Do you want to hire a retread in Pagano or Munchak? Do you want to give a long-time coordinator, Vic Fangio, his first shot as a head coach? Or do you want to give a young relatively unproven guy a shot as our head coach? Does hiring a coordinator from the Patriots, Brian Flores, still hold some distaste for you like it does for me? What about hiring a positional coach, Zac Taylor, who is not much older than our starting QB?