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So I normally use this space to focus on the defense, and while the defensive performance was good given the myriad injuries, I am going to focus on the offense today. Specifically, I am going to focus on third down offense.
Even after converting seven of fifteen third downs on Sunday, the Broncos are still ranked 30th in the league in 3rd down conversion percentage (32.7%). The Broncos have only converted 54 of 165 third down attempts this season, and that number includes the seven conversions by defensive penalty. Much of that third down ineptitude falls on the head of the quarterback as third down performance (specifically conversions) is what separates the good QBs from the guys who are about to lose their jobs.
Joe Flacco dropped back to pass 98 times on third down and converted on 32 in eight games (4.0 conversions per game) with seven conversions coming via defensive penalty. Brandon Allen dropped back to pass 35 times on third down in three games and converted on 11 of those (6 passing, 3 running, 2 penalty) - 3.7 per game. Drew dropped back to pass 13 times on third down on Sunday and converted on 7 of those - all via the pass. See the table below.
| Passing | Rushing | |||||||||||||||
| Player | Cmp | Att | Cmp% | Yds | TD | Int | Sk | Yds | Y/A | 1D | Rate | Att | Yds | Y/A | TD | 1D |
| Joe Flacco | 42 | 73 | 57.5 | 406 | 0 | 2 | 13 | -87 | 5.6 | 21 | 61.8 | 5 | 20 | 4 | 0 | 4 |
| Drew Lock | 10 | 13 | 76.9 | 101 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 7.8 | 7 | 138.1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Brandon Allen | 9 | 26 | 34.6 | 66 | 1 | 0 | 4 | -34 | 2.5 | 6 | 56.3 | 3 | 20 | 6.67 | 0 | 3 |
Admittedly, that was facing a team that had no film on him, but it was also facing a team in the Chargers that has two premier edge rushers and had both of its starting safeties back from injury, one of whom is elite. Also don’t forget that the Broncos offensive line was hobbled by injury with Elijah Wilkinson still playing for Ja’wuan James, Dalton Risner slowed by injury and Austin Schlottman playing for Ron Leary for a significant part of the game. Even with that, Drew Lock was not sacked on Sunday.
Joe Flacco was sacked 26 times in eight starts with 18 of those coming on third down. Allen was sacked nine times in three starts with four of those coming on third down.
We should also note that 101 of Lock’s 134 passing yards came on third down.
Overall Denver QB performance on third down this year has been bad. There have been 51 different QBs who have thrown the ball ten times or more on third down this season. Drew Lock currently has the best passer rating in the league on 3rd down. See the table below
| Passing | Rushing | ||||||||||||||||
| Rank | Player | Cmp | Att | Cmp% | Yds | TD | Int | Sk | Yds | Y/A | 1D | Rate | Att | Yds | Y/A | TD | 1D |
| 1 | Drew Lock | 10 | 13 | 76.9 | 101 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 7.8 | 7 | 138.1 | 0 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| 2 | Derek Carr | 74 | 111 | 66.7 | 960 | 12 | 1 | 8 | -59 | 8.6 | 54 | 126.0 | 5 | 32 | 6.4 | 1 | 3 |
| 3 | Patrick Mahomes | 49 | 81 | 60.5 | 782 | 8 | 0 | 6 | -35 | 9.7 | 38 | 125.6 | 9 | 110 | 12.2 | 0 | 8 |
| 4 | Matt Schaub | 7 | 11 | 63.6 | 88 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 8.0 | 5 | 118.8 | 0 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| 5 | Lamar Jackson | 56 | 86 | 65.1 | 733 | 8 | 1 | 3 | -18 | 8.5 | 44 | 118.0 | 37 | 270 | 7.3 | 3 | 23 |
| 6 | Matthew Stafford | 55 | 88 | 62.5 | 741 | 7 | 0 | 9 | -74 | 8.4 | 39 | 115.8 | 2 | 9 | 4.5 | 0 | 1 |
| 7 | Ryan Tannehill | 31 | 51 | 60.8 | 441 | 5 | 1 | 10 | -84 | 8.6 | 20 | 113.3 | 7 | 16 | 2.3 | 1 | 3 |
| 8 | Kirk Cousins | 66 | 99 | 66.7 | 837 | 8 | 2 | 7 | -58 | 8.5 | 49 | 111.4 | 10 | 24 | 2.4 | 0 | 5 |
| 9 | Devlin Hodges | 16 | 23 | 69.6 | 170 | 1 | 0 | 1 | -13 | 7.4 | 8 | 105.3 | 4 | 13 | 3.3 | 0 | 1 |
| 10 | Russell Wilson | 63 | 103 | 61.2 | 915 | 7 | 2 | 13 | -91 | 8.9 | 44 | 104.6 | 7 | 67 | 9.6 | 0 | 3 |
| 11 | Matt Ryan | 68 | 110 | 61.8 | 898 | 8 | 2 | 17 | -135 | 8.2 | 50 | 104.3 | 10 | 58 | 5.8 | 1 | 6 |
| 12 | Brian Hoyer | 12 | 22 | 54.5 | 131 | 2 | 0 | 1 | -11 | 6.0 | 8 | 102.7 | 2 | 7 | 3.5 | 0 | 0 |
| 13 | Nick Foles | 24 | 37 | 64.9 | 314 | 1 | 0 | 3 | -23 | 8.5 | 15 | 100.5 | 1 | 3 | 3.0 | 0 | 1 |
| 14 | Deshaun Watson | 76 | 110 | 69.1 | 889 | 6 | 3 | 14 | -99 | 8.1 | 55 | 100.2 | 13 | 107 | 8.2 | 2 | 8 |
| 15 | Carson Wentz | 74 | 130 | 56.9 | 839 | 10 | 1 | 12 | -87 | 6.5 | 60 | 98.8 | 18 | 69 | 3.8 | 0 | 12 |
| 16 | Jacoby Brissett | 61 | 99 | 61.6 | 757 | 6 | 2 | 7 | -35 | 7.6 | 44 | 97.1 | 14 | 60 | 4.3 | 0 | 9 |
| 17 | Jimmy Garoppolo | 71 | 107 | 66.4 | 766 | 8 | 4 | 10 | -57 | 7.2 | 55 | 96.6 | 12 | 33 | 2.8 | 1 | 9 |
| 18 | Josh Allen | 59 | 99 | 59.6 | 757 | 6 | 2 | 14 | -81 | 7.6 | 41 | 95.4 | 29 | 118 | 4.1 | 3 | 20 |
| 19 | David Blough | 9 | 14 | 64.3 | 153 | 1 | 1 | 1 | -13 | 10.9 | 7 | 95.2 | 0 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| 20 | Aaron Rodgers | 62 | 106 | 58.5 | 868 | 4 | 1 | 15 | -131 | 8.2 | 45 | 93.6 | 9 | 42 | 4.7 | 0 | 2 |
| 21 | Daniel Jones | 72 | 118 | 61.0 | 829 | 10 | 5 | 13 | -94 | 7.0 | 49 | 92.8 | 18 | 102 | 5.7 | 1 | 11 |
| 22 | Dak Prescott | 69 | 113 | 61.1 | 952 | 5 | 3 | 5 | -41 | 8.4 | 52 | 91.8 | 18 | 129 | 7.2 | 1 | 10 |
| 23 | Drew Brees | 37 | 55 | 67.3 | 431 | 1 | 1 | 5 | -36 | 7.8 | 25 | 89.3 | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 | 1 |
| 24 | Jared Goff | 66 | 114 | 57.9 | 1029 | 6 | 5 | 10 | -56 | 9.0 | 45 | 87.2 | 5 | 14 | 2.8 | 1 | 2 |
| 25 | Teddy Bridgewater | 32 | 55 | 58.2 | 373 | 3 | 2 | 5 | -52 | 6.8 | 22 | 81.9 | 8 | 27 | 3.4 | 0 | 3 |
| 26 | Kyle Allen | 59 | 105 | 56.2 | 627 | 7 | 4 | 19 | -185 | 6.0 | 46 | 80.1 | 5 | 26 | 5.2 | 1 | 1 |
| 27 | Kyler Murray | 74 | 125 | 59.2 | 696 | 3 | 1 | 10 | -75 | 5.6 | 45 | 79.3 | 13 | 58 | 4.5 | 1 | 7 |
| 28 | Mason Rudolph | 41 | 77 | 53.2 | 547 | 4 | 3 | 7 | -57 | 7.1 | 27 | 77.1 | 7 | 18 | 2.6 | 0 | 4 |
| 29 | Gardner Minshew | 50 | 96 | 52.1 | 623 | 5 | 3 | 8 | -58 | 6.5 | 29 | 76.9 | 14 | 105 | 7.5 | 0 | 6 |
| 30 | Ben Roethlisberger | 9 | 17 | 52.9 | 124 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -7 | 7.3 | 4 | 76.6 | 0 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| 31 | Tom Brady | 71 | 134 | 53.0 | 870 | 6 | 4 | 11 | -79 | 6.5 | 54 | 75.8 | 4 | 13 | 3.3 | 0 | 2 |
| 32 | Sam Darnold | 47 | 90 | 52.2 | 550 | 6 | 4 | 12 | -82 | 6.1 | 34 | 74.8 | 4 | 33 | 8.3 | 0 | 1 |
| 33 | Case Keenum | 35 | 57 | 61.4 | 333 | 2 | 2 | 4 | -40 | 5.8 | 22 | 74.7 | 2 | 3 | 1.5 | 0 | 1 |
| 34 | Ryan Fitzpatrick | 47 | 80 | 58.8 | 704 | 3 | 5 | 13 | -64 | 8.8 | 36 | 74.2 | 12 | 66 | 5.5 | 2 | 6 |
| 35 | Andy Dalton | 62 | 109 | 56.9 | 759 | 1 | 2 | 10 | -70 | 7.0 | 43 | 73.9 | 7 | 24 | 3.4 | 1 | 4 |
| 36 | Baker Mayfield | 59 | 110 | 53.6 | 667 | 5 | 4 | 14 | -100 | 6.1 | 41 | 72.0 | 9 | 55 | 6.1 | 0 | 6 |
| 37 | Mitchell Trubisky | 52 | 97 | 53.6 | 565 | 4 | 3 | 16 | -112 | 5.8 | 34 | 71.9 | 8 | 29 | 3.6 | 1 | 4 |
| 38 | Chase Daniel | 14 | 21 | 66.7 | 154 | 0 | 1 | 3 | -20 | 7.3 | 9 | 68.4 | 3 | 3 | 1.0 | 0 | 1 |
| 39 | Marcus Mariota | 27 | 49 | 55.1 | 255 | 1 | 1 | 12 | -86 | 5.2 | 15 | 68.0 | 8 | 42 | 5.3 | 0 | 3 |
| 40 | Ryan Finley | 15 | 30 | 50.0 | 174 | 0 | 0 | 5 | -42 | 5.8 | 8 | 67.9 | 3 | 3 | 1.0 | 0 | 1 |
| 41 | Philip Rivers | 67 | 120 | 55.8 | 776 | 5 | 7 | 10 | -60 | 6.5 | 49 | 65.1 | 3 | 26 | 8.7 | 0 | 2 |
| 42 | Joe Flacco | 45 | 77 | 58.4 | 425 | 0 | 2 | 14 | -93 | 5.5 | 24 | 63.0 | 5 | 20 | 4.0 | 0 | 4 |
| 43 | Josh Rosen | 15 | 32 | 46.9 | 186 | 1 | 1 | 9 | -60 | 5.8 | 9 | 62.8 | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| 44 | Cam Newton | 11 | 22 | 50.0 | 94 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -5 | 4.3 | 7 | 61.6 | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| 45 | Jeff Driskel | 20 | 36 | 55.6 | 226 | 1 | 2 | 4 | -10 | 6.3 | 13 | 60.6 | 2 | 16 | 8.0 | 0 | 2 |
| 46 | Jameis Winston | 70 | 122 | 57.4 | 799 | 6 | 10 | 13 | -83 | 6.5 | 51 | 59.4 | 21 | 134 | 6.4 | 0 | 10 |
| 47 | Matt Moore | 12 | 24 | 50.0 | 90 | 0 | 0 | 4 | -39 | 3.8 | 9 | 59.4 | 0 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| 48 | Brandon Allen | 11 | 28 | 39.3 | 83 | 1 | 0 | 4 | -34 | 3.0 | 8 | 59.2 | 5 | 30 | 6.0 | 0 | 4 |
| 49 | Dwayne Haskins | 18 | 42 | 42.9 | 186 | 1 | 2 | 11 | -74 | 4.4 | 10 | 44.3 | 7 | 41 | 5.9 | 0 | 4 |
| 50 | Luke Falk | 15 | 25 | 60.0 | 116 | 0 | 3 | 6 | -33 | 4.6 | 4 | 31.8 | 0 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| 51 | Eli Manning | 9 | 22 | 40.9 | 63 | 0 | 1 | 2 | -13 | 2.9 | 5 | 29.7 | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 | 1 |
You can see that from a passer rating on third down, Joe Flacco is ranked 42nd and Brandon Allen is ranked 48th. Now I fully don’t expect Lock to maintain this pace once teams get film on him, but even if he regresses to mediocrity he will be a step up from the third down QB performance we have seen this season from our QBs.
As always I am going to put the data further into context. Has the Charger defense been bad on third downs so far this season? The answer is yes. The Chargers are currently tied for 28th in third down conversion percentage allowed (tied with OAK and MIA).
It is interesting to note that the Broncos next opponent, Houston has had the worst third down defense in the league so far this season. The Texans have allowed conversion on 47.8 percent of third downs. It gets better. The Broncos also get to face the Raiders (t-28th) and Lions (29th) in the final four games. Only the Chiefs (14th) are in the top half of the league at stopping opponents on third down and then just barely in the top half. Drew Lock is set up for third down success in his first five starts.
Table from Pro-football-reference.com (like all of the data in this piece) - unfortunately it’s not sortable in this format and the ranking is by total conversions allowed and not conversion percentage as shown.