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I know that numbers don’t tell the whole story, but any time a big move like the Joe Flacco trade is made by the Broncos, I want to see some data. I hope you do as well. I not only want to know how Flacco performed in 2018 relative to Case Keenum, but I also want to know how well both did compared to the rest of the league.
Throwing the deep ball
There is this persistent myth (at least among Broncos fans still traumatized by Rahim Moore’s mis-timed leap on the Flacco hail mary in 2012) that Flacco is good at throwing the deep ball.
While I would love to show you the entire league data for this, I can’t because profootballfocus.com will not let us (without a really expensive media-level subscription). What I can share with you is where Flacco has ranked (and his passer rating on passes that travelled 20 or more yards beyond the LOS) during every year of his career.
Year | Deep Passer Rating | Rank Among Qualifiers |
2008 | 87.9 | 13th |
2009 | 76.2 | 22nd |
2010 | 98.8 | 7th |
2011 | 82.8 | 16th |
2012 | 123.2 | 2nd |
2013 | 27.6 | 41st |
2014 | 107.4 | 10th |
2015 | 49.8 | 33rd |
2016 | 60.9 | 31st |
2017 | 52.7 | 29th |
2018 | 52.6 | 37th |
It’s fairly clear from the data that Flacco has not been good at throwing the deep ball since he won the Super Bowl MVP and signed that massive contract. The Flacco Apologists on the staff would like to point out that Flacco has had little in the way of deep threats at wide receiver with the Ravens over the past six seasons, but there are other QBs who were able to generate much better deep passing stats than Flacco in 2018 with receiving corps that were as limited as the Ravens’ corps from last season.
Flacco attempted 52 deep passes and completed 12 (four were dropped) for three TDs and three INTs. By way of comparison, Keenum attempted 72 deep passes, completing 26 (four were dropped) for five TDs and eight INTs. Keenum led the league in deep interceptions. For comparison, Russell Wilson, who was one of the best deep passers in the league in 2018, attempted 68 deep passes, completing 33 (0 drops) for 15 TDs and only one INT. Using a minimum of 10 attempts to qualify, Keenum was the 33rd rated deep passer in 2018, and Flacco was the 37th. Both sucked.
Third down passing
The rest of the data in this piece will all come from pro-football-reference.com, which is free to use as long as you give them credit.
Overall on third down in 2018, Flacco was decent and Keenum was terrible. Flacco was 12th in passer rating on third down with a rating of 97.6 last season. Keenum had a passer rating of 66.5, which ranked him 34th among qualifiers (minimum 30 attempts) and worse than Jeff Driskel, Blake Bortles, Lamar Jackson and Nick Mullens. If we sort this table by first-down percentage (how often a drop-back led to a first down on third down), Flacco was 15th (37.8 percent) while Keenum was 38th (27.2 percent). Andrew Luck led the league at 48.5 percent. I did not include third down scrambles that converted.
Rank | Player | Cmp | Att | Cmp% | Yds | TD | Int | Sk | Yds | Y/A | 1D | 1D% | Rate |
1 | Russell Wilson | 75 | 127 | 59.1 | 994 | 16 | 3 | 26 | -158 | 7.8 | 54 | 35.3% | 113.6 |
2 | Patrick Mahomes | 77 | 124 | 62.1 | 1206 | 12 | 4 | 9 | -66 | 9.7 | 64 | 48.1% | 113.2 |
3 | Brock Osweiler | 36 | 54 | 66.7 | 469 | 4 | 1 | 7 | -54 | 8.7 | 23 | 37.7% | 110.8 |
4 | Drew Brees | 79 | 117 | 67.5 | 797 | 9 | 1 | 8 | -65 | 6.8 | 53 | 42.4% | 108.8 |
5 | Jameis Winston | 53 | 84 | 63.1 | 663 | 6 | 1 | 13 | -81 | 7.9 | 43 | 44.3% | 106.4 |
6 | Nick Foles | 40 | 51 | 78.4 | 425 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 8.3 | 21 | 41.2% | 106.3 |
7 | Eli Manning | 111 | 161 | 68.9 | 1294 | 10 | 3 | 19 | -151 | 8 | 67 | 37.2% | 106 |
8 | Matt Ryan | 101 | 148 | 68.2 | 1165 | 7 | 2 | 20 | -135 | 7.9 | 72 | 42.9% | 101.9 |
9 | Ryan Fitzpatrick | 32 | 51 | 62.7 | 438 | 3 | 1 | 4 | -36 | 8.6 | 23 | 41.8% | 101.6 |
10 | Dak Prescott | 100 | 147 | 68 | 1046 | 7 | 1 | 23 | -160 | 7.1 | 60 | 35.3% | 101.5 |
11 | Aaron Rodgers | 75 | 132 | 56.8 | 1269 | 6 | 1 | 25 | -181 | 9.6 | 52 | 33.1% | 101.5 |
12 | Joe Flacco | 56 | 92 | 60.9 | 608 | 6 | 1 | 6 | -27 | 6.6 | 37 | 37.8% | 97.6 |
13 | Jared Goff | 81 | 124 | 65.3 | 949 | 8 | 4 | 15 | -102 | 7.7 | 57 | 41.0% | 96.5 |
14 | Andrew Luck | 106 | 162 | 65.4 | 1200 | 10 | 5 | 5 | -37 | 7.4 | 81 | 48.5% | 95.2 |
15 | Tom Brady | 65 | 124 | 52.4 | 787 | 12 | 3 | 11 | -82 | 6.3 | 48 | 35.6% | 94.4 |
16 | Marcus Mariota | 60 | 97 | 61.9 | 714 | 4 | 1 | 22 | -123 | 7.4 | 45 | 37.8% | 93.8 |
17 | Baker Mayfield | 78 | 128 | 60.9 | 1010 | 8 | 4 | 11 | -92 | 7.9 | 50 | 36.0% | 93.6 |
18 | Kirk Cousins | 92 | 151 | 60.9 | 1000 | 8 | 2 | 22 | -162 | 6.6 | 62 | 35.8% | 92.6 |
19 | Mitchell Trubisky | 68 | 107 | 63.6 | 697 | 7 | 3 | 12 | -94 | 6.5 | 48 | 40.3% | 92.3 |
20 | Derek Carr | 84 | 132 | 63.6 | 933 | 3 | 0 | 26 | -162 | 7.1 | 55 | 34.8% | 92.1 |
21 | Deshaun Watson | 88 | 141 | 62.4 | 1023 | 7 | 3 | 22 | -178 | 7.3 | 55 | 33.7% | 92 |
22 | Ben Roethlisberger | 102 | 158 | 64.6 | 1135 | 10 | 6 | 8 | -58 | 7.2 | 68 | 41.0% | 91.1 |
23 | Carson Wentz | 53 | 93 | 57 | 586 | 4 | 0 | 11 | -78 | 6.3 | 39 | 37.5% | 90.2 |
24 | Alex Smith | 62 | 98 | 63.3 | 749 | 3 | 2 | 7 | -45 | 7.6 | 37 | 35.2% | 88.4 |
25 | Cam Newton | 61 | 102 | 59.8 | 606 | 7 | 3 | 9 | -75 | 5.9 | 42 | 37.8% | 87.3 |
26 | Sam Darnold | 62 | 117 | 53 | 786 | 7 | 3 | 14 | -97 | 6.7 | 44 | 33.6% | 83.5 |
27 | Jeff Driskel | 32 | 53 | 60.4 | 289 | 1 | 0 | 8 | -60 | 5.5 | 16 | 26.2% | 81.4 |
28 | Blake Bortles | 63 | 114 | 55.3 | 730 | 3 | 1 | 12 | -83 | 6.4 | 44 | 34.9% | 79.9 |
29 | Matthew Stafford | 86 | 150 | 57.3 | 930 | 8 | 6 | 13 | -81 | 6.2 | 59 | 36.2% | 76.8 |
30 | Andy Dalton | 40 | 81 | 49.4 | 459 | 6 | 3 | 10 | -92 | 5.7 | 32 | 35.2% | 76.1 |
31 | Lamar Jackson | 27 | 49 | 55.1 | 269 | 2 | 1 | 7 | -23 | 5.5 | 18 | 32.1% | 76 |
32 | Philip Rivers | 79 | 138 | 57.2 | 985 | 8 | 8 | 8 | -74 | 7.1 | 56 | 38.4% | 74.7 |
33 | Nick Mullens | 40 | 68 | 58.8 | 475 | 5 | 5 | 7 | -66 | 7 | 29 | 38.7% | 74.1 |
34 | Case Keenum | 74 | 139 | 53.2 | 728 | 3 | 3 | 19 | -139 | 5.2 | 43 | 27.2% | 66.5 |
35 | Ryan Tannehill | 37 | 72 | 51.4 | 414 | 3 | 3 | 18 | -141 | 5.8 | 20 | 22.2% | 65.4 |
36 | C.J. Beathard | 20 | 40 | 50 | 244 | 2 | 2 | 10 | -92 | 6.1 | 15 | 30.0% | 65 |
37 | Cody Kessler | 22 | 36 | 61.1 | 199 | 1 | 2 | 10 | -67 | 5.5 | 16 | 34.8% | 62.2 |
38 | Josh Rosen | 56 | 114 | 49.1 | 576 | 4 | 4 | 21 | -164 | 5.1 | 38 | 28.1% | 61.1 |
39 | Josh Allen | 43 | 93 | 46.2 | 508 | 1 | 4 | 13 | -96 | 5.5 | 30 | 28.3% | 49 |
40 | Josh McCown | 11 | 31 | 35.5 | 102 | 1 | 1 | 2 | -13 | 3.3 | 8 | 24.2% | 42.7 |
41 | Blaine Gabbert | 21 | 38 | 55.3 | 190 | 0 | 3 | 2 | -12 | 5 | 12 | 30.0% | 36.1 |
Flacco, at least from his 2018 stats, is definitely an upgrade over Keenum in third down passing.
Third (or fourth) and long (9 or more yards needed)
I know I normally use seven or more for “long” situations, but the league tracks passing on third-(or fourth)-and-9 or more, so that is what is going to be shown in the next table.
Rank | Player | Cmp | Att | Cmp% | Yds | TD | Int | Sk | Yds | Y/A | 1D | 1D% | Rate |
1 | Jameis Winston | 19 | 25 | 76.0 | 293 | 2 | 1 | 6 | -51 | 11.7 | 12 | 38.7% | 124.3 |
2 | Brock Osweiler | 14 | 16 | 87.5 | 188 | 0 | 0 | 4 | -28 | 11.8 | 6 | 30.0% | 115.6 |
3 | Marcus Mariota | 26 | 33 | 78.8 | 306 | 1 | 0 | 10 | -59 | 9.3 | 15 | 34.9% | 115.4 |
4 | Matt Ryan | 40 | 59 | 67.8 | 540 | 1 | 0 | 5 | -34 | 9.2 | 20 | 31.3% | 102.4 |
5 | Dak Prescott | 53 | 76 | 69.7 | 607 | 3 | 1 | 8 | -79 | 8.0 | 18 | 21.4% | 101.2 |
6 | Nick Foles | 15 | 19 | 78.9 | 149 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 7.8 | 2 | 10.5% | 99.3 |
7 | Tom Brady | 21 | 40 | 52.5 | 280 | 4 | 1 | 5 | -40 | 7.0 | 11 | 24.4% | 97.9 |
8 | Derek Carr | 35 | 47 | 74.5 | 366 | 0 | 0 | 14 | -86 | 7.8 | 12 | 19.7% | 96.6 |
9 | Eli Manning | 46 | 61 | 75.4 | 502 | 2 | 2 | 11 | -92 | 8.2 | 14 | 19.4% | 96.5 |
10 | Patrick Mahomes | 28 | 50 | 56.0 | 605 | 2 | 2 | 6 | -45 | 12.1 | 22 | 39.3% | 95.8 |
11 | Ben Roethlisberger | 35 | 56 | 62.5 | 457 | 3 | 2 | 4 | -29 | 8.2 | 16 | 26.7% | 91.1 |
12 | Russell Wilson | 24 | 44 | 54.5 | 318 | 3 | 1 | 9 | -52 | 7.2 | 10 | 18.9% | 90.9 |
13 | Josh Johnson | 6 | 10 | 60.0 | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | -21 | 9.0 | 3 | 25.0% | 89.6 |
14 | Aaron Rodgers | 33 | 60 | 55.0 | 536 | 2 | 1 | 8 | -59 | 8.9 | 12 | 17.6% | 89.3 |
15 | Carson Wentz | 19 | 34 | 55.9 | 241 | 1 | 0 | 5 | -33 | 7.1 | 10 | 25.6% | 88 |
16 | Alex Smith | 28 | 41 | 68.3 | 334 | 0 | 1 | 5 | -30 | 8.1 | 8 | 17.4% | 82.8 |
17 | Deshaun Watson | 37 | 54 | 68.5 | 405 | 1 | 2 | 8 | -50 | 7.5 | 10 | 16.1% | 81.2 |
18 | Joe Flacco | 26 | 38 | 68.4 | 298 | 0 | 1 | 4 | -21 | 7.8 | 11 | 26.2% | 80.8 |
19 | Drew Brees | 24 | 39 | 61.5 | 255 | 0 | 0 | 2 | -15 | 6.5 | 8 | 19.5% | 80.6 |
20 | Blaine Gabbert | 8 | 12 | 66.7 | 66 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -4 | 5.5 | 3 | 23.1% | 80.6 |
21 | Andrew Luck | 35 | 52 | 67.3 | 456 | 1 | 3 | 3 | -20 | 8.8 | 19 | 34.5% | 77.1 |
22 | Baker Mayfield | 32 | 55 | 58.2 | 488 | 2 | 3 | 2 | -15 | 8.9 | 13 | 22.8% | 76.9 |
23 | Kirk Cousins | 28 | 55 | 50.9 | 352 | 2 | 1 | 6 | -44 | 6.4 | 11 | 18.0% | 75.7 |
24 | Case Keenum | 34 | 58 | 58.6 | 360 | 2 | 2 | 8 | -54 | 6.2 | 16 | 24.2% | 73.9 |
25 | Matthew Stafford | 34 | 56 | 60.7 | 444 | 3 | 4 | 5 | -15 | 7.9 | 16 | 26.2% | 73.8 |
26 | Cam Newton | 21 | 40 | 52.5 | 305 | 2 | 2 | 2 | -15 | 7.6 | 9 | 21.4% | 73.4 |
27 | Ryan Tannehill | 19 | 35 | 54.3 | 250 | 3 | 3 | 10 | -74 | 7.1 | 6 | 13.3% | 69.9 |
28 | Josh Rosen | 25 | 46 | 54.3 | 254 | 1 | 1 | 13 | -111 | 5.5 | 12 | 20.3% | 68.6 |
29 | Mitchell Trubisky | 16 | 31 | 51.6 | 206 | 2 | 2 | 3 | -24 | 6.6 | 6 | 17.6% | 67.4 |
30 | Blake Bortles | 23 | 41 | 56.1 | 253 | 0 | 1 | 8 | -53 | 6.2 | 12 | 24.5% | 64.4 |
31 | Nathan Peterman | 7 | 12 | 58.3 | 58 | 1 | 1 | 3 | -14 | 4.8 | 3 | 20.0% | 63.9 |
32 | Jeff Driskel | 13 | 27 | 48.1 | 136 | 0 | 0 | 4 | -38 | 5.0 | 3 | 9.7% | 63.2 |
33 | Jared Goff | 32 | 50 | 64.0 | 389 | 0 | 3 | 7 | -50 | 7.8 | 13 | 22.8% | 62.8 |
34 | Sam Darnold | 31 | 65 | 47.7 | 466 | 3 | 4 | 8 | -52 | 7.2 | 18 | 24.7% | 61.4 |
35 | Philip Rivers | 32 | 56 | 57.1 | 408 | 1 | 4 | 3 | -28 | 7.3 | 15 | 25.4% | 56.3 |
36 | C.J. Beathard | 8 | 19 | 42.1 | 100 | 1 | 1 | 3 | -29 | 5.3 | 5 | 22.7% | 54.7 |
37 | Tyrod Taylor | 7 | 15 | 46.7 | 44 | 0 | 0 | 2 | -11 | 2.9 | 3 | 17.6% | 53.5 |
38 | Josh Allen | 18 | 40 | 45.0 | 299 | 0 | 2 | 3 | -28 | 7.5 | 10 | 23.3% | 49.9 |
39 | Ryan Fitzpatrick | 10 | 18 | 55.6 | 105 | 0 | 1 | 2 | -20 | 5.8 | 3 | 15.0% | 49.5 |
40 | Lamar Jackson | 9 | 16 | 56.3 | 101 | 0 | 1 | 3 | -13 | 6.3 | 3 | 15.8% | 49.2 |
41 | Cody Kessler | 8 | 14 | 57.1 | 70 | 0 | 1 | 5 | -40 | 5.0 | 2 | 10.5% | 40.8 |
42 | Nick Mullens | 12 | 23 | 52.2 | 119 | 0 | 2 | 4 | -37 | 5.2 | 4 | 14.8% | 30.9 |
43 | Andy Dalton | 10 | 32 | 31.3 | 145 | 0 | 2 | 2 | -20 | 4.5 | 5 | 14.7% | 21 |
Using passer rating, Flacco was 18th and Keenum was 24th among qualifiers (minimum 10 attempts). I was surprised to see how poorly both Philip Rivers (35th) and Andy Dalton (43rd) fared on third- or fourth-and-very-long. Sorting by first-down conversion rate, Flacco was ninth and Keenum 16th. Mahomes was unreal converting on 39.3 percent of his third-and-very-long passing attempts. Mullens only converted on four of these situations all season. Two of those conversions were against Vic Fangio’s Chicago defense (and neither was against a prevent defense as the score was close or tied on both).
Back to the comparison of Flacco and Keenum. Flacco is a small upgrade here, but not much.
Passing in the fourth quarter of a close game (within 7 points)
Good QBs can put the team on their back in crunch time and move the sticks when it is needed most. Whether that is a situation where your team is down and needs a score to tie or take the lead, or your team is up and looking to convert so they can run out the clock, good QBs find ways to succeed in these situations. Bad ones don’t.
Rank | Player | Cmp | Att | Cmp% | Yds | TD | Int | Sk | Yds | Y/A | 1D | 1D% | Rate |
1 | Matt Ryan | 54 | 68 | 79.4 | 768 | 6 | 3 | 5 | -35 | 11.3 | 33 | 45.2% | 124.8 |
2 | Tom Brady | 50 | 65 | 76.9 | 743 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 11.4 | 31 | 47.7% | 122.8 |
3 | Chase Daniel | 8 | 11 | 72.7 | 74 | 1 | 0 | 2 | -6 | 6.7 | 3 | 23.1% | 121.0 |
4 | Carson Wentz | 51 | 69 | 73.9 | 530 | 5 | 0 | 6 | -49 | 7.7 | 28 | 37.3% | 119.8 |
5 | Alex Smith | 8 | 11 | 72.7 | 64 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5.8 | 4 | 36.4% | 117.2 |
6 | Patrick Mahomes | 43 | 61 | 70.5 | 519 | 6 | 2 | 4 | -20 | 8.5 | 23 | 35.4% | 115.4 |
7 | Lamar Jackson | 10 | 18 | 55.6 | 125 | 2 | 0 | 3 | -9 | 6.9 | 9 | 42.9% | 114.4 |
8 | Drew Brees | 43 | 61 | 70.5 | 482 | 5 | 1 | 4 | -28 | 7.9 | 21 | 32.3% | 114.2 |
9 | Dak Prescott | 54 | 81 | 66.7 | 742 | 4 | 0 | 9 | -48 | 9.2 | 31 | 34.4% | 112.3 |
10 | Marcus Mariota | 31 | 47 | 66.0 | 355 | 3 | 0 | 3 | -9 | 7.6 | 18 | 36.0% | 109.8 |
11 | Andrew Luck | 68 | 90 | 75.6 | 676 | 4 | 1 | 4 | -36 | 7.5 | 37 | 39.4% | 106.5 |
12 | Tyrod Taylor | 10 | 16 | 62.5 | 201 | 2 | 2 | 1 | -10 | 12.6 | 7 | 41.2% | 106.3 |
13 | Philip Rivers | 39 | 54 | 72.2 | 444 | 1 | 0 | 3 | -19 | 8.2 | 22 | 38.6% | 102.7 |
14 | Mitchell Trubisky | 38 | 55 | 69.1 | 390 | 3 | 1 | 3 | -11 | 7.1 | 23 | 39.7% | 99.8 |
15 | Deshaun Watson | 42 | 66 | 63.6 | 552 | 3 | 1 | 6 | -40 | 8.4 | 24 | 33.3% | 98.8 |
16 | Jared Goff | 36 | 62 | 58.1 | 441 | 3 | 0 | 4 | -28 | 7.1 | 21 | 31.8% | 96.2 |
17 | Ryan Tannehill | 21 | 34 | 61.8 | 318 | 4 | 3 | 4 | -24 | 9.4 | 10 | 26.3% | 95.0 |
18 | Russell Wilson | 43 | 74 | 58.1 | 660 | 4 | 2 | 10 | -80 | 8.9 | 25 | 29.8% | 94.4 |
19 | Eli Manning | 48 | 75 | 64.0 | 647 | 3 | 2 | 3 | -27 | 8.6 | 25 | 32.1% | 93.6 |
20 | Aaron Rodgers | 45 | 82 | 54.9 | 625 | 3 | 0 | 6 | -38 | 7.6 | 26 | 29.5% | 91.8 |
21 | Cam Newton | 70 | 117 | 59.8 | 790 | 6 | 3 | 4 | -25 | 6.8 | 42 | 34.7% | 86.5 |
22 | Ben Roethlisberger | 67 | 106 | 63.2 | 764 | 3 | 2 | 4 | -31 | 7.2 | 39 | 35.5% | 86.4 |
23 | Case Keenum | 49 | 76 | 64.5 | 577 | 1 | 1 | 6 | -45 | 7.6 | 28 | 34.1% | 86.3 |
24 | Josh Rosen | 28 | 48 | 58.3 | 369 | 3 | 2 | 4 | -27 | 7.7 | 19 | 36.5% | 86.2 |
25 | Joe Flacco | 25 | 42 | 59.5 | 261 | 1 | 0 | 3 | -19 | 6.2 | 12 | 26.7% | 85.5 |
26 | Matthew Stafford | 29 | 43 | 67.4 | 304 | 2 | 2 | 4 | -30 | 7.1 | 13 | 27.7% | 83.9 |
27 | Derek Carr | 26 | 49 | 53.1 | 301 | 3 | 1 | 3 | -8 | 6.1 | 16 | 30.8% | 83.8 |
28 | Baker Mayfield | 35 | 57 | 61.4 | 423 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 7.4 | 21 | 36.8% | 81.3 |
29 | Andy Dalton | 43 | 72 | 59.7 | 501 | 1 | 1 | 4 | -32 | 7.0 | 27 | 35.5% | 79.7 |
30 | Kirk Cousins | 15 | 21 | 71.4 | 161 | 0 | 1 | 4 | -35 | 7.7 | 8 | 32.0% | 73.7 |
31 | Josh Allen | 21 | 41 | 51.2 | 301 | 2 | 2 | 2 | -15 | 7.3 | 15 | 34.9% | 71.3 |
32 | Blaine Gabbert | 15 | 22 | 68.2 | 179 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 8.1 | 11 | 50.0% | 70.1 |
33 | Nick Foles | 13 | 23 | 56.5 | 131 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 5.7 | 5 | 21.7% | 69.3 |
34 | Josh Johnson | 9 | 14 | 64.3 | 97 | 1 | 2 | 2 | -18 | 6.9 | 7 | 43.8% | 68.8 |
35 | Jameis Winston | 15 | 30 | 50.0 | 190 | 1 | 1 | 1 | -4 | 6.3 | 9 | 29.0% | 67.4 |
36 | Nathan Peterman | 5 | 10 | 50.0 | 55 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 5.5 | 4 | 40.0% | 60.4 |
37 | Nick Mullens | 21 | 36 | 58.3 | 283 | 0 | 2 | 3 | -18 | 7.9 | 13 | 33.3% | 60.3 |
38 | Jeff Driskel | 4 | 11 | 36.4 | 68 | 0 | 0 | 2 | -16 | 6.2 | 2 | 15.4% | 58.1 |
39 | Blake Bortles | 24 | 49 | 49.0 | 213 | 0 | 1 | 4 | -23 | 4.3 | 10 | 18.9% | 52.5 |
40 | Sam Darnold | 29 | 58 | 50.0 | 360 | 1 | 5 | 6 | -39 | 6.2 | 15 | 23.4% | 39.4 |
41 | C.J. Beathard | 12 | 22 | 54.5 | 122 | 0 | 2 | 3 | -28 | 5.5 | 6 | 24.0% | 32.8 |
Both Flacco and Keenum were poor in these situations in 2018 with Keenum ranking 23rd (86.3) and Flacco ranking 25th (85.5). This is a push. Surprisingly, both QBs did better than Nick Foles in these situations in 2018.
Red Zone Passing
If your QB can’t lead the offense to TDs once in the red zone, you will lose more often than you win. Note that this does not include rushing stats in the red zone by the QB, only passing stats. That being said, neither Flacco nor Keenum is known for his running ability.
Rank | Player | Cmp | Att | Cmp% | Yds | TD | Int | Sk | Yds | Y/A | 1D | 1D% | Rate |
1 | Drew Brees | 63 | 88 | 71.6 | 363 | 22 | 0 | 2 | -19 | 4.1 | 33 | 36.7% | 118.5 |
2 | Baker Mayfield | 35 | 54 | 64.8 | 259 | 20 | 0 | 2 | -24 | 4.8 | 23 | 41.1% | 115.7 |
3 | Kirk Cousins | 45 | 68 | 66.2 | 279 | 20 | 0 | 7 | -57 | 4.1 | 26 | 34.7% | 113.9 |
4 | Patrick Mahomes | 63 | 96 | 65.6 | 461 | 35 | 1 | 7 | -48 | 4.8 | 46 | 44.7% | 112.0 |
5 | Andrew Luck | 60 | 89 | 67.4 | 401 | 32 | 1 | 2 | -25 | 4.5 | 39 | 42.9% | 111.9 |
6 | Matt Ryan | 45 | 73 | 61.6 | 365 | 23 | 1 | 9 | -58 | 5.0 | 31 | 37.8% | 108.2 |
7 | Andy Dalton | 29 | 45 | 64.4 | 211 | 16 | 1 | 1 | -9 | 4.7 | 19 | 41.3% | 105.6 |
8 | Jimmy Garoppolo | 8 | 15 | 53.3 | 66 | 3 | 0 | 6 | -48 | 4.4 | 5 | 23.8% | 104.4 |
9 | Tom Brady | 49 | 86 | 57.0 | 376 | 18 | 1 | 5 | -30 | 4.4 | 30 | 33.0% | 102.5 |
10 | Mitchell Trubisky | 37 | 60 | 61.7 | 228 | 17 | 1 | 3 | -30 | 3.8 | 21 | 33.3% | 101.9 |
11 | Carson Wentz | 33 | 55 | 60.0 | 221 | 18 | 1 | 4 | -25 | 4.0 | 20 | 33.9% | 100.8 |
12 | Deshaun Watson | 37 | 72 | 51.4 | 274 | 19 | 0 | 15 | -94 | 3.8 | 25 | 28.7% | 100.3 |
13 | Cam Newton | 36 | 54 | 66.7 | 237 | 18 | 2 | 4 | -22 | 4.4 | 25 | 43.1% | 100.1 |
14 | Jameis Winston | 28 | 45 | 62.2 | 258 | 15 | 2 | 2 | -10 | 5.7 | 20 | 42.6% | 98.9 |
15 | Jared Goff | 55 | 96 | 57.3 | 363 | 23 | 2 | 4 | -29 | 3.8 | 29 | 29.0% | 96.5 |
16 | Sam Darnold | 23 | 43 | 53.5 | 198 | 8 | 1 | 3 | -24 | 4.6 | 16 | 34.8% | 95.7 |
17 | Philip Rivers | 40 | 65 | 61.5 | 240 | 20 | 2 | 4 | -10 | 3.7 | 27 | 39.1% | 95.5 |
18 | Josh Rosen | 16 | 37 | 43.2 | 146 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3.9 | 12 | 32.4% | 94.1 |
19 | Russell Wilson | 35 | 62 | 56.5 | 269 | 23 | 2 | 7 | -54 | 4.3 | 28 | 40.6% | 93.3 |
20 | Cody Kessler | 6 | 13 | 46.2 | 41 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3.2 | 4 | 30.8% | 93.3 |
21 | Brock Osweiler | 7 | 15 | 46.7 | 32 | 3 | 0 | 1 | -8 | 2.1 | 3 | 18.8% | 93.1 |
22 | Alex Smith | 16 | 27 | 59.3 | 112 | 7 | 1 | 5 | -29 | 4.1 | 11 | 34.4% | 92.9 |
23 | Josh Allen | 12 | 26 | 46.2 | 79 | 4 | 0 | 3 | -23 | 3.0 | 5 | 17.2% | 92.8 |
24 | Chase Daniel | 5 | 11 | 45.5 | 31 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2.8 | 3 | 27.3% | 92.0 |
25 | Derek Carr | 36 | 59 | 61.0 | 188 | 14 | 2 | 2 | -8 | 3.2 | 18 | 29.5% | 91.7 |
26 | Marcus Mariota | 26 | 48 | 54.2 | 144 | 8 | 1 | 4 | -21 | 3.0 | 13 | 25.0% | 90.6 |
27 | Joe Flacco | 23 | 43 | 53.5 | 139 | 10 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3.2 | 13 | 30.2% | 90.0 |
28 | Lamar Jackson | 9 | 21 | 42.9 | 61 | 4 | 0 | 4 | -9 | 2.9 | 5 | 20.0% | 89.9 |
29 | Jeff Driskel | 7 | 17 | 41.2 | 53 | 4 | 0 | 2 | -7 | 3.1 | 5 | 26.3% | 89.0 |
30 | Nick Mullens | 23 | 36 | 63.9 | 142 | 8 | 2 | 3 | -24 | 3.9 | 13 | 33.3% | 88.2 |
31 | Ryan Tannehill | 13 | 25 | 52.0 | 117 | 8 | 1 | 1 | -8 | 4.7 | 10 | 38.5% | 87.8 |
32 | Aaron Rodgers | 27 | 61 | 44.3 | 215 | 16 | 1 | 3 | -30 | 3.5 | 19 | 29.7% | 86.4 |
33 | Nick Foles | 14 | 24 | 58.3 | 75 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3.1 | 7 | 29.2% | 85.9 |
34 | Dak Prescott | 34 | 67 | 50.7 | 208 | 12 | 2 | 8 | -52 | 3.1 | 15 | 20.0% | 84.5 |
35 | Ben Roethlisberger | 48 | 85 | 56.5 | 307 | 20 | 4 | 1 | -6 | 3.6 | 31 | 36.0% | 84.2 |
36 | Eli Manning | 38 | 80 | 47.5 | 243 | 18 | 2 | 4 | -31 | 3.0 | 24 | 28.6% | 83.5 |
37 | C.J. Beathard | 11 | 20 | 55.0 | 70 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3.5 | 8 | 40.0% | 81.3 |
38 | Matthew Stafford | 34 | 71 | 47.9 | 226 | 14 | 3 | 5 | -29 | 3.2 | 24 | 31.6% | 77.2 |
39 | Blake Bortles | 17 | 38 | 44.7 | 106 | 7 | 2 | 3 | -10 | 2.8 | 10 | 24.4% | 69.5 |
40 | Case Keenum | 29 | 61 | 47.5 | 174 | 10 | 4 | 2 | -14 | 2.9 | 15 | 23.8% | 66.5 |
41 | Ryan Fitzpatrick | 14 | 37 | 37.8 | 93 | 9 | 2 | 4 | -12 | 2.5 | 11 | 26.8% | 63.2 |
Here we see that Flacco is an upgrade over Keenum. While Flacco was 27th in red zone passer rating in 2018 (90.0), Keenum was second-to-last among qualifiers at 40th (66.5). Yay! We’ve upgraded from atrocious to mostly shitty.
Keenum’s four red zone interceptions were tied for league worst and the QB he tied with, Ben Roethlisberger, threw twice as many red zone TDs. Flacco threw 10 red zone TDs and only one red zone pick. Mahomes threw an unreal 35 red zone TD passes with only one pick. Drew Brees, Baker Mayfield and Kirk Cousins combined to throw 62 red zone TD passes without a single red zone interception. The only thing keeping Keenum from having the worst red zone passing stats in the league in 2018 was Ryan Fitzpatrick’s 37.8 completion percentage on red zone passes, which was the worst by far among qualifying QBs.
Danger zone (inside your own 20) passing
Broncos want a QB that can get them out of the shadow of their own goalpost without turning the ball over. Flacco was actually very good in the danger zone in 2018, ranking 5th in passer rating (103.2). Keenum was 31st with a passer rating of 73.0. Keenum’s three danger zone picks were tied for worst in the league (with Nathan Peterman and Cam Newton).
In terms of first-down percentage, Keenum was 22nd (29.4 percent) while Flacco was fourth (40 percent). I was surprised to see Tom Brady so far down the list in terms of first down percentage on danger zone drop-backs (42nd). I’m not sure what to read into that, if anything.
Rank | Player | Cmp | Att | Cmp% | Yds | TD | Int | Sk | Yds | Y/A | 1D | 1D% | Rate |
1 | C.J. Beathard | 12 | 14 | 85.7 | 176 | 1 | 0 | 1 | -5 | 12.6 | 4 | 26.7% | 142.6 |
2 | Lamar Jackson | 9 | 10 | 90.0 | 188 | 0 | 0 | 2 | -8 | 18.8 | 6 | 50.0% | 118.8 |
3 | Nick Foles | 16 | 26 | 61.5 | 269 | 1 | 0 | 1 | -9 | 10.3 | 8 | 29.6% | 109.3 |
4 | Deshaun Watson | 31 | 42 | 73.8 | 407 | 0 | 0 | 4 | -33 | 9.7 | 18 | 39.1% | 104.0 |
5 | Joe Flacco | 31 | 38 | 81.6 | 433 | 0 | 1 | 2 | -13 | 11.4 | 16 | 40.0% | 103.2 |
6 | Blaine Gabbert | 10 | 13 | 76.9 | 109 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 8.4 | 3 | 23.1% | 101.1 |
7 | Ben Roethlisberger | 51 | 70 | 72.9 | 653 | 1 | 1 | 1 | -9 | 9.3 | 23 | 32.4% | 100.5 |
8 | Patrick Mahomes | 39 | 59 | 66.1 | 526 | 1 | 0 | 1 | -2 | 8.9 | 26 | 43.3% | 100.0 |
9 | Carson Wentz | 27 | 35 | 77.1 | 271 | 0 | 0 | 2 | -9 | 7.7 | 12 | 32.4% | 98.6 |
10 | Mitchell Trubisky | 35 | 48 | 72.9 | 403 | 0 | 0 | 3 | -25 | 8.4 | 18 | 35.3% | 97.8 |
11 | Eli Manning | 45 | 59 | 76.3 | 529 | 0 | 1 | 5 | -44 | 9 | 23 | 35.9% | 95.9 |
12 | Andy Dalton | 22 | 28 | 78.6 | 296 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -10 | 10.6 | 11 | 37.9% | 95.8 |
13 | Derek Carr | 40 | 54 | 74.1 | 402 | 0 | 0 | 6 | -39 | 7.4 | 16 | 26.7% | 94.8 |
14 | Baker Mayfield | 43 | 60 | 71.7 | 567 | 0 | 1 | 2 | -12 | 9.5 | 21 | 33.9% | 94.2 |
15 | Cody Kessler | 18 | 23 | 78.3 | 146 | 0 | 0 | 2 | -10 | 6.3 | 3 | 12.0% | 93.1 |
16 | Philip Rivers | 47 | 72 | 65.3 | 716 | 0 | 1 | 4 | -29 | 9.9 | 28 | 36.8% | 92.1 |
17 | Jeff Driskel | 12 | 19 | 63.2 | 154 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -8 | 8.1 | 8 | 40.0% | 88.5 |
18 | Alex Smith | 22 | 32 | 68.8 | 316 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -9 | 9.9 | 10 | 30.3% | 87.5 |
19 | Kirk Cousins | 44 | 60 | 73.3 | 446 | 0 | 1 | 6 | -37 | 7.4 | 20 | 30.3% | 87.2 |
20 | Matthew Stafford | 40 | 58 | 69.0 | 378 | 0 | 0 | 4 | -21 | 6.5 | 17 | 27.4% | 86.7 |
21 | Dak Prescott | 43 | 62 | 69.4 | 418 | 1 | 1 | 11 | -55 | 6.7 | 16 | 21.9% | 86.6 |
22 | Aaron Rodgers | 47 | 69 | 68.1 | 444 | 0 | 0 | 2 | -10 | 6.4 | 17 | 23.9% | 85.7 |
23 | Andrew Luck | 35 | 50 | 70.0 | 398 | 0 | 1 | 4 | -27 | 8 | 17 | 31.5% | 85.3 |
24 | Nick Mullens | 19 | 29 | 65.5 | 283 | 1 | 2 | 2 | -11 | 9.8 | 13 | 41.9% | 80.1 |
25 | Blake Bortles | 33 | 46 | 71.7 | 403 | 1 | 3 | 1 | -8 | 8.8 | 16 | 34.0% | 78.4 |
26 | Russell Wilson | 28 | 41 | 68.3 | 287 | 0 | 1 | 7 | -39 | 7 | 13 | 27.1% | 78.0 |
27 | Marcus Mariota | 22 | 30 | 73.3 | 205 | 0 | 1 | 5 | -21 | 6.8 | 10 | 28.6% | 77.8 |
28 | Josh Rosen | 27 | 42 | 64.3 | 304 | 0 | 1 | 4 | -27 | 7.2 | 11 | 23.9% | 75.9 |
29 | Matt Ryan | 35 | 57 | 61.4 | 393 | 0 | 1 | 2 | -16 | 6.9 | 17 | 28.8% | 74.7 |
30 | Ryan Tannehill | 20 | 27 | 74.1 | 169 | 0 | 1 | 4 | -22 | 6.3 | 9 | 29.0% | 74.5 |
31 | Case Keenum | 46 | 65 | 70.8 | 486 | 0 | 3 | 3 | -10 | 7.5 | 20 | 29.4% | 73.0 |
32 | Sam Darnold | 33 | 57 | 57.9 | 397 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -8 | 7 | 17 | 29.3% | 72.0 |
33 | Sam Bradford | 10 | 15 | 66.7 | 51 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3.4 | 2 | 13.3% | 71.8 |
34 | Cam Newton | 35 | 53 | 66.0 | 481 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 9.1 | 19 | 35.8% | 71.3 |
35 | Jared Goff | 29 | 43 | 67.4 | 334 | 0 | 2 | 2 | -18 | 7.8 | 13 | 28.9% | 71.3 |
36 | Tom Brady | 32 | 48 | 66.7 | 283 | 0 | 2 | 1 | -3 | 5.9 | 8 | 16.3% | 64.8 |
37 | Jameis Winston | 14 | 20 | 70.0 | 203 | 0 | 2 | 4 | -21 | 10.2 | 7 | 29.2% | 63.1 |
38 | Drew Brees | 21 | 31 | 67.7 | 200 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 6.5 | 8 | 25.8% | 58.5 |
39 | Ryan Fitzpatrick | 16 | 24 | 66.7 | 190 | 0 | 2 | 3 | -26 | 7.9 | 9 | 33.3% | 55.9 |
40 | Brock Osweiler | 10 | 15 | 66.7 | 88 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -6 | 5.9 | 5 | 31.3% | 54.3 |
41 | Josh Allen | 16 | 35 | 45.7 | 173 | 0 | 2 | 3 | -18 | 4.9 | 7 | 18.4% | 37.0 |
42 | Josh Johnson | 6 | 10 | 60.0 | 56 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -12 | 5.6 | 3 | 27.3% | 35.8 |
43 | Nathan Peterman | 11 | 21 | 52.4 | 69 | 0 | 3 | 2 | -6 | 3.3 | 4 | 17.4% | 19.8 |
44 | Jimmy Garoppolo | 6 | 14 | 42.9 | 62 | 0 | 2 | 2 | -18 | 4.4 | 4 | 25.0% | 16.7 |
Conclusion
So there you have it. Some in-depth comparative passing stats for the guy who very likely will be our starting QB in 2019 relative to the guy who was our starting QB in 2018. I’m still not happy about this trade, but these data make me feel marginally better.
How are you feeling after seeing all of this?
Poll
If Joe Flacco is our starting QB in 2019 how much of an upgrade (if any) will he be over Case Keenum?
This poll is closed
-
4%
he’s a downgrade
-
13%
it’s a wash - they are equally poor
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39%
a small upgrade
-
37%
a decent upgrade
-
4%
a huge upgrade
-
0%
Flacco is not going to start, rookie drafted QB will