Elway has a plan and it’s a good one

There are three different scenarios for the Denver Broncos in the 2019 draft:

1. Trade up
2. Stay put
3. Trade back

Okay, thanks for reading and please listen to the podcast above and stay tuned for more draft analysis next week!

Shoot, I guess I may as well spend my time in guessing the outcome of the 2019 draft like the other 8 million mock drafts that are circulating around the interweb on a daily basis and I’m sure my four months of podcasting make me a valuable source for this information. (Though I did predict that they would bring in Flacco or Kaepernick...people just saw red when I mentioned the latter.)

I was able to predict the Flacco or Kaepernick additions because it made sense that Elway wouldn’t risk his bacon on another rookie QB and Fangio had locker room experience with both of those guys. Since Kaep burned the Elway bridge several years back, it makes sense that the guy they chose was Flacco...anyway, using the same logic - Elway won’t risk it for a QB and Fangio will draft/sign guys he is comfortable with -, here are the possibilities I see for the Broncos 2019 first-round draft selection.

Option #1 Trade up for Haskins

The only reason the Broncos will trade up in this draft is for a QB that they are in love with. Since Murray will likely go #1 and he doesn’t really fit the Elway mold anyway, that leaves Dwayne Haskins as the only possibility. No, no, no he will not trade up to draft Drew Lock and in fact he won’t even….I’ll save that for later.

If they think that Haskins is a “can’t miss” guy (which actually doesn’t exist) then they can and should trade up - perhaps to the #5 spot belonging to the Bucs - and snag him. There is no reason to suggest that the Broncos love this guy though and unless they are incredibly good poker players, this option seems highly unlikely. I also think it’s really possible that the Raiders pick Haskins at #4 and jettison Carr in the next few years just so Gruden can show the league how smart and different he is.

No matter how you look at this option though, it seems unlikely, so say goodbye to he idea of Murray and Haskins in orange and blue.

Option #2 Stay put for BPA

BPA is not a bitter tasting beer - at least I don’t think it is - but rather it means “best player available”. This is a really generalized comment and it could mean that they draft any of the thousands of players available for the NFL draft. Still, there are a few that are most likely to spark interest and who could still be available after nine selections.

The names can be found in hundreds of other articles and some fantastic ones right here on MHR but the list typically includes guys like Devin White (ILB), Greedy Williams (CB) and Drew Lock (QB).

Except no. This is where I draw the line and think differently than many of the other pundits and podcasters in the webosphere.

I think there is almost 0% that the Broncos draft Drew Lock at #10. When Elway and Kubiak showed interest in him a few months back it was before his stock rose through the roof and he became a guy who was rumored to be in the discussion of being a top-ten pick. The Broncos brain trust had him in their sights as a late first or early second round pick and nothing more. Am I an insider and know this for a fact, I’ll let you decide, but my guns are being stuck by and if Lock is picked at #10 by the Broncos I will do the ice water challenge while sucking on a lemon and standing in a freezing cold river.

As I discuss in my podcast (which really is linked above and I’d love if you listened), Elway and Fangio seem to be attempting to build a team in the image of the 2015 Super Bowl champs. Meaning:

1. Great pass rush --- check
2. Great cornerbacks --- semi check
3. Good enough offense and QB --- check

This should tell us that free agency and the draft will look to build up the O-line and bring in a great ILB and CB plus help at DL and TE. Let’s see what the team does next week at the start of free agency and it should show us their plans for who would be BPA at #10.

Option # 3 Trade back for Lock + draft stock in 2020

Most people think that Drew Lock is a lock for being picked in the first half of the first round of the draft. I am not one of those people and really believe that he could drop past #15 if all the cards fall in the right/wrong way. Obviously the Broncos can’t bet on this happening but if they trade their #10 for say the #18-20 and get some great picks in 2020 and a few for 2019 while also having the chance to grab Lock if he drops or a solid ILB or CB if he doesn’t, they would be big winners.

This team has enough weaknesses that they could really use some extra draft picks and the last thing they should do is panic and draft a QB at #10. Who would be available if they traded back to the later parts of the first round? I have no clue but guys like Christopher Hart right here on MHR have fantastic knowledge of the draft class and will be all over the players that would be steals at that position.

So, what do you think is most likely? Trade up for a QB, stay put for BPA or trade back for the potential of getting Lock and at the very least for a stash of draft picks in 2019 and 2020? Let me know in the comments what your ideal version of the first round would be for the Denver Broncos!

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