NFL picks against the spread: Week 3

Week 2 went a little better after I focused more on games I felt more confident in for covering the spread. Still not great, but a winning record two weeks into my first year of doing picks against the spread is a small win that I’ll happily take.

Straight-up I continued to hit that magic 10 mark, thought it would be nice to see it edge closer to the teens. At this point, I am dreading that catastrophic week of picks. Any of you who has done pick’em for any length of time knows what I’m talking about.

Straight Pick’em: 10-6 (Overall: 20-11-1)
Top Picks ATS: 3-2 (Overall: 6-6)
Top Picks O/U: 3-2 (Overall: 6-6)

For this week, I saw a couple of games that I really like. I decided I should start explaining why a game got a “top pick” from me. Let me know what you think! All numbers here were taken from the latest lines at the time of this writing.

Picks Against The Spread - Week 3

Tennessee Titans at Jacksonville Jaguars (+2 / 38.5) - TNF

If there were ever a perfect spot to pick the Jaguars to win a game it would be right here. As home underdogs to a divisional foe who is also not very good is usually a pretty good spread to bet on.

Score prediction: Jaguars 17, Titans 16. Top Pick.

Miami Dolphins at Dallas Cowboys (-22.5 / 47)

Score prediction: Cowboys 31, Dolphins 10. No pick.

Denver Broncos at Green Bay Packers (-7.5 / 43)

This might be straight homerism talking, but the Packers rushing attack ranks near the bottom through two games and the Broncos have proven they can find running lanes this year. If they stick to it, the game will at least be close enough to cover. And since I’m a Broncos fan, I’ll go ahead and have them cover with that dub-yah.

Score prediction: Broncos 23, Packers 21. Top Pick.

Baltimore Ravens at Kansas City Chiefs (-7 / 53)

Score prediction: Chiefs 30, Ravens 26. No pick.

Oakland Raiders at Minnesota Vikings (-9 / 43.5)

Score prediction: Vikings 23, Raiders 16. No pick.

Cincinnati Bengals at Buffalo Bills (-6 / 44)

I’m going with a risky pick here. I don’t believe the Bills are a good enough offense to consistently put up big numbers on the scoring end. I think they win this game, but the Bengals slide in for that cover.

Score prediction: Bills 20, Bengals 17. Top Pick.

Atlanta Falcons at Indianapolis Colts (-1.5 / 47)

Score prediction: Falcons 17, Colts 13. No pick.

New York Jets at New England Patriots (-24 / 43.5)

Score prediction: Patriots 34, Jets 13. No pick.

Detroit Lions at Philadelphia Eagles (-6 / 45.5)

Score prediction: Eagles 24, Lions 14. No pick.

Carolina Panthers at Arizona Cardinals (+3 / 46.5)

Score prediction: Cardinals 16, Panthers 13. No pick.

New York Giants at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-7 / 47.5)

Score prediction: Bucs 26, Giants 10. No pick.

Houston Texans at Los Angeles Chargers (-3 / 47.5)

Score prediction: Texans 27, Chargers 24. No pick.

New Orleans Saints at Seattle Seahawks (-4.5 / 45)

Score prediction: Seahawks 23, Saints 16. No pick.

Pittsburgh Steelers at San Francisco 49ers (-7 / 44)

The Steelers could come undone here at this point and the 49ers keep telling me I am wrong for picking against them, so I won’t make that mistake here. In fact, I’ll go ahead and call the 49ers here to steamroll the Steelers.

Score prediction: 49ers 31, Steelers 13. Top Pick.

Los Angeles Rams at Cleveland Browns (+3 / 49) - SNF

Score prediction: Browns 23, Rams 20. No pick.

Chicago Bears at Washington Redskins (+4 / 41.5) - MNF

I’m just not a huge believer in the Bears right now. Their defense looked leaky last week and their offense is completely inadequate. Meanwhile, Case Keenum is over there slinging it around like he never had a bad season for the Broncos. I’m thinking upset here.

Score prediction: Redskins 20, Bears 16. Top Pick.