clock menu more-arrow no yes

Filed under:

NFL picks against the spread: Week 4

New, comments

Welcome to Week 4 of my NFL picks and picks against the spread. I’m coming off a down week last week, so hopefully we’ll see things swing back the other way this week.

Houston Texans v Los Angeles Chargers Photo by Jeff Gross/Getty Images

I came out of the gates strong in straight-up pick’em last week, piling up six wins early. Then like the Kansas City Chiefs in the playoffs, that strong early season derailed into a fiery pit of misery and despair.

The 8-8 finish made me sad, but not as sad as the Denver Broncos three turnover performance in a game that they would have at least covered the spread on. So chalk the ATS picks as a loser too. I’ll be looking for a bounce back kind of week now.

The over/under went a little better. Looks like I pushed on two and went 2-1 on the other three, so last week wasn’t a complete unmitigated disaster.

Straight Pick’em: 10-6 (Overall: 28-19-1)

Top Picks ATS: 3-2 (Overall: 8-9)

Top Picks O/U: 3-2 (Overall: 8-7)

For Week 4, I don’t really like many if I were going to bet on something. So only a few risks this week, but here are my score predictions and picks for this week.

Picks against the spread - Week 4

Philadelphia Eagles at Green Bay Packers (-4.5 / 46.5) - TNF

Score prediction: Packers 23, Eagles 20. No pick.

Carolina Panthers at Houston Texans (-4.5 / 47.5)

I don’t understand this line at all. The Panthers get beat at home by the Rams and Bucs, then go out and beat the Cardinals on the road and that somehow makes them just 4.5 point road underdogs to a Texans team that is starting to look like a legitimate contender? I’m not buying it.

Score prediction: Texans 27, Panthers 17. Top pick.

Tennessee Titans at Atlanta Falcons (-4 / 45.5)

Score prediction: Falcons 26, Titans 16. No pick.

Cleveland Browns at Baltimore Ravens (-7 / 45)

Score prediction: Ravens 24, Browns 20. N pick.

New England Patriots at Buffalo Bills (+7.5 / 42)

Score prediction: Patriots 20, Bills 13. No pick.

Kansas City Chiefs at Detroit Lions (+7 / 55)

Score prediction: Chiefs 31, Lions 21. No pick.

Oakland Raiders at Indianapolis Colts (-7 / 45)

Score prediction: Colts 16, Raiders 13. No pick.

Los Angeles Chargers at Miami Dolphins (+16 / 44)

I’m sorry, but Philip Rivers should never be a 16 point favorite in any game. The Chargers are a playoff flirt and inconsistent. I think they’ll still win by two scores, but I’m willing to guess they might come up just shy of that 16 point spread on the road in Miami.

Score prediction: Chargers 27, Dolphins 13. Top pick.

Washington Redskins at New York Giants (-3 / 49.5)

Score prediction: Giants 23, Redskins 20. No pick.

Seattle Seahawks at Arizona Cardinals (+5.5 / 48)

Score prediction: Seahawks 20, Cardinals 19. No pick.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Los Angeles Rams (-10 / 49)

Score prediction: Rams 28, Bucs 20. No pick.

Jacksonville Jaguars at Denver Broncos (-3 / 39)

I AM DOING IT. This is the game where the Broncos finally put it all together and score over 20 and when that happens they usually win some football games. DO IT.

Score prediction: Broncos 23, Jaguars 16. Top pick.

Minnesota Vikings at Chicago Bears (-2 / 38.5)

Score prediction: Bears 20, Vikings 17. No pick.

Dallas Cowboys at New Orleans Saints (+3 / 47) - SNF

Score prediction: Cowboys 30, Saints 27. No pick.

Cincinnati Bengals at Pittsburgh Steelers (-3.5 / 43.5) - MNF

Score prediction: Steelers 30, Bengals 20. No pick.

The Broncos & Bratwurst picks against the spread had a rough week too, so maybe I shouldn’t be all that hard on myself. This week just wasn’t singing to me, though. Hopefully I can turn that into a 3-0 top pick kind of week.

Betting the Spread - Week 4

WEEK 4 Top Picks Kevin Gillikin Taylor Kothe Skipper Dude Eric Caveman Luke Short Dom Gillikin Paul Consensus
WEEK 4 Top Picks Kevin Gillikin Taylor Kothe Skipper Dude Eric Caveman Luke Short Dom Gillikin Paul Consensus
Philadelphia Green Bay (-4.5) GB GB GB GB PHI GB GB GB
Washington NY Giants (-3) NYG NYG NYG WAS WAS WAS WAS WAS
LA Chargers (-17) Miami LAC LAC LAC MIA MIA MIA MIA MIA
Oakland Indianapolis (-7) IND IND IND OAK IND IND OAK IND
Carolina Houston (-4) HOU HOU HOU HOU HOU HOU CAR HOU
Kansas City (-6.5) Detroit KC KC KC KC KC KC KC KC
New England (-7) Buffalo NE NE NE NE BUF NE NE NE
Cleveland Baltimore (-5.5) BAL CLE CLE BAL BAL CLE BAL BAL
Tennessee Atlanta (-4.5) ATL ATL ATL ATL TEN ATL ATL ATL
Tampa Bay LA Rams (-9.5) TB TB TB LAR TB LAR LAR TB
Seattle (-4) Arizona SEA SEA SEA SEA SEA AZ SEA SEA
Jacksonville Denver (-3) DEN DEN DEN DEN JAX DEN DEN DEN
Minnesota Chicago (-2.5) MIN MIN CHI MIN MIN MIN MIN MIN
Dallas (-3) New Orleans DAL DAL DAL DAL NO DAL DAL DAL
Cincinnati Pittsburgh (-5) PIT CIN CIN PIT PIT CIN CIN CIN
All Picks Week 4 3-12-1 7-8-1 6-9-1 6-9-1 5-10-1 4-11-1 7-8-1 38-67-7
All Picks Season to Date 20-26-2 22-24-2 24-22-2 23-23-2 19-27-2 25-21-2 23-23-2 156-166-14
Top Picks Week 4 0-3-0 2-1-0 1-2-0 0-3-0 0-3-0 1-2-0 1-2-0 5-16-0
Top Picks Season to Date 3-5-1 5-4-0 4-5-0 4-5-0 3-6-0 5-4-0 6-3-0 30-32-1