FanPost

Sultan Azteca's Weekly Post 5 – Throwing a lifeline for Vic

Link to the full game video:

Dolphins game

Raiders game (removed on ethical principles of mercy)

In Context (youth or injuries? Justifying the failure of Fangio’s Broncos):

At the time of the final 53-man roster cut, the top average youngest and oldest teams in the league were (highlighting the teams currently with a winning record):

Team (avg age in yrs in Sept)

Youngest

Oldest

1

Jaguars (24.9)

Falcons (26.9)

2

Dolphins (25.0)

Bears (26.7)

3

Rams (25.1)

Saints (26.7)

4

Browns (25.4)

49ers (26.6)

5

Packers (25.5)

Titans (26.5)

6

Vikings (25.5)

Patriots (26.4)

7

Broncos (25.6)

Buccaneers (26.3)

8

Chargers (25.6)

Seahawks (26.2)

9

Giants (25.7)

Cardinals (26.1)

10

Colts (25.7)

Bills (26.1)

Combined W/L Differential

-2

+15


Although the gap in W/L differential between both groups looks imposing, it is mostly skewed by a few over/underachievers (Jaguars and Saints, mostly). Five of the 10 youngest teams currently hold a winning record, while six of the oldest do the same. In total, three of the 10 youngest teams are divisional leaders at the moment, while that can be said for only two of the oldest.

Now, what if we do a similar analysis for those teams most injured in the season (measured in terms of number of players in their IR lists)? Here the results

Team (no. of players)

Most

Fewest

1

49ers (18)

Falcons (2)

2

Broncos (13)

Steelers (3)

3

Ravens (12)

Chiefs (4)

4

Seahawks (12)

Buccaneers (4)

5

Cowboys (11)

Colts (4)

6

Bengals (10)

Dolphins (4)

7

Bears (10)

Raiders (5)

8

Jaguars (10)

Bills (5)

9

Patriots (10)

Panthers (6)

10

Giants (10)

Packers (7)

Combined W/L Differential

-21

+30

The teams with the most injuries (including our Broncos, the second most hit team) are quite disproportionately hurt in their chances of being competitive. Of the top 10 most injured teams, only two of them manage to have a winning record, whereas the exact opposite applies for the 10 least injured, with just two teams having a losing record: the perennially disappointing Falcons, and the rebuilding Panthers. Five of the 10 healthiest teams , five (FIVE!) are currently divisional leaders, while three of the most injured are at the bottom of their divisions.

In conclusion: It is true that the Broncos is one of the hardest hit teams by injuries this season (2nd in number of players , and 3rd as % of salary cap in the IR). It is also quite evident that nearly any team under similar circumstances is equally affected (such as the 49ers, Cowboys, and Patriots, all seen as contenders before the start of the season), while relatively healthy teams are cruising to the playoffs, including a few catching the world by surprise (like Colts, Dolphins, and the undefeated Steelers). On the other hand, young, talented, and well-trained teams like the Rams, Browns, Colts, and our recently victimized Dolphins, are teams that prove that an extended learning curve is not mandatory in the modern NFL.

Prediction

My prediction read: "Miami wins the TO battle by at least two. Whomever is behind center will throw multi INTs, and somebody fumbles (wouldn't surprise me Lindsay's first ever). One of them returned for a TD. ST will allow a punt or KO return for TD, or at least a blocked punt. More penalties than ever before. 250-300 total offense yards. Final score 43 - 13."

Boy, am I happy to be (mostly) wrong! We were losing the TO battle by two…, until the very last defensive play in the game (thanks for foiling my prediction, Justin!). Lock threw just one INT, but somebody did fumble, with both turnovers costing us two TDs (one scored against, the other lost). The O recorded an astounding 459 total yards, and the ST did not allow returns for TD or blocked punts (well, that’s a success…), but was definitely NOT a contributing factor in the win. Penalties DID occur, but with no catastrophic consequences (see Penalties). The predicted blowout loss turned into a tight win, that should have actually been far more relaxed at the end but... (See The Bad - Killer).

Rookie watch

OJM watch: OJM made his name heard in ST, …and it wasn’t good (see Penalties). Secondary is not quite missing him yet.

KJ Hammler’s numbers were rather humble (4 of 6, 35 yds), but KJH showed a lot of grit all game long. He caught the first complete pass of the day (in Lock’s SEVENTH attempt), a tightly contested, 15-yd, 3rd-and-long-down catch, with Needham immediately twisting poor KJH in nearly as ugly fashion as Baker did again later in the game (evidently, the Dolphins secondary has been trained to execute that bone-ripping technique, as Jones applied a similar tackle on Patrick later on). That catch brought back life to a drive that resulted in the first TD of the day. The little guy amazingly toughed it out and clung to the ball every time. Hamler hustled it out all day: throwing blocks in the open, fighting it out for contested catches, or struggling for an extra yard. He and his 5’9", 178-lbs frame will never shy away from contact.

Outside of a fantastic 22-yd catch in 3rd-and 10 (in an unusually successful straight up 3-WR pass setup) that kept a drive alive for the eventual FG that would give Denver the lead going into halftime, Jerry Jeudy had a relatively quiet afternoon, gaining just 15 more yards in 2 other catches out of 7 targets, with X. Howard blanketing him for most of the game.

The Cush had a much-needed rebound game, throwing good run blocks on the edges, and doing a great job sealing up the middle in passing situations. He is still not able to hold down holes in the middle for the run game yet, forcing Shurmur to plan the ground attack on either side. Speaking of which, I insist that Jeremy Cox has been grossly underutilized as a lead blocker in short yardage situations. After Cox led the block for the first TD, he was left struggling to stay warm on the bench while a 2nd-and-1, and a crucial 4th-and-1 downs resulted in lost yardage.

Essang Bassey (3 tackles, 2 solo) had a couple of nice plays, but more importantly, he missed his assignments twice in Miami’s last-pitch drive, once in a key 3-and-11 conversion (see The Bad – Killer Instinct), and missing his man again for an easy 1st down, giving up 33 yds and two 1st-downs in that crucial drive.

Penalties:

Taking a second to analyze the young Miami Dolphins: Although Dolphins had a relatively dirty game (5 – 50 yds), they are still one of the least penalized teams in the league, with the 4th fewest flags (46), and 3rd fewest in penalty yards (390). By comparison, the Broncos rank 13th in flags (56) and 16th in yards (506). That is the signature of a well-coached team.

Now onto our team: We all saw it, Simmons got absolutely robbed of a game-changing INT, as AJ Bouye was called for a bogus holding (see The Ugly). A few plays later, Tua would complete a beautiful TD pass beating Bouye himself. But… Simmons would later get his revenge, in the sweetest way.

Two Broncos drives later, consecutive false starts by Fumagalli and Dotson hurt (but, different than in other games, didn’t kill) the first drive that showed life, … and which resulted in the game-tying TD. It was Lock himself who got the drive out of the hole by rushing for a 13 yd dash in 3rd down (bruised ribs and all). Friendly note to Shurmur: after his 6th full start, Lock just exceeded (82) the total rushing yards he he had last season in 5 games (72). Probably Lock does not look like it, but he can be very useful for the occasional designed QB run.

Special Teams (*sigh*): after a decent KO return by Spencer, OJM was called for a blindside block, cutting the ball spot to half the distance to the goal. A holding call on the freshly ascended (and properly named) rookie Elijah Holder, added to an already excellent punt by Miami’s punter Matt Haack, shifting the ball in a single play, from the Dolphins’ own 17 yd line, to the Broncos 19 (a total 64 yard field flip!!!), and painfully negating the results from a 3-and-out forced by Denver’s D deep in enemy territory.

Defense had a pretty clean game, except for the traditional Chubb roughing the passer penalty for hitting Fitz helmet-to-helmet as he was diving to the ground like an old man. Although a somewhat questionable call, Chubb had many other alternatives, including simply tapping Fitz while he laid on the grass.

The Good:

Some love for Malik: About time to single out Reed’s contributions! After his great game vs Dolphins (6 tackles, 4 solo, 1.5 sacks, 2 TFL), he now shares the 12th highest league total in sacks with Bradley Chubb and Khalil Mack. Reed is also just 0.5 TFL shy of Chubb’s team-leading total (10). Reed is proving to be a powerful tractor, by sacking Tua while requiring little help from the secondary, … after beating a double-team!!! He also shows great instincts, forgetting about Tua just in time to get RB Ahmed for a TFL..., right before pressuring (and hitting) Tua for an incomplete. On the other side: while Chubb keeps winning battles in the line, he also gets frequently sidestepped by QBs with ease. It is worthwhile to point out that Chubb was supposed to be used sparingly in the first half of the season. In reality, he has played >70% of the snaps in every game.

Blocking schemes with Dotson in: After being buried in the depth chart in the first 3 weeks (under Wilks, no less), Demar Dotson has played 100% of the snaps in half of the games this season, in which the Broncos have got ALL THEIR FOUR WINS this season, and a single loss vs our arch-nemesis, the mighty Chiefs. The record with anything less than 50% Dotson? Zero wins, five losses. Regardless of Dotson’s abilities, this stat shows that opposing DCs will always scheme against the O-line’s weakest link. Without Dotson, for the Broncos that consistently is the RT position. On Sunday, Dotson had a great return from injury, throwing great blocks for Lindsey and Gordon in the first TD drive, in concert with Cush, Fant, Bolles, and others assisting on his side. The big ol’ man was also one of the walls through which Gordon rushed for his 2nd TD (with Risner being the other), and Gordon finishing the job with a nice cut-in. Not everything works perfect, even with Dotson in: blocking down the middle is simply not working, not even for short yardage (probably because Cush then becomes the weakest link), with LBs constantly exploding into every tiny hole for net losses (see The Bad - Personnel). One final blocking note: Great news! Fant has grown into a really good blocker, even more reliable than Vannett.

Resilience in defense: With three new Ds in the D-line (DeMarcus, DeShawn, and Dre’Mont), Fangio managed to seal up the middle for the run, and bring in A LOT of pressure on Tua. The three young, big guys up front combined for an impressive loot of 8 tackles, 5 solo, 2.5 TFL, and 3.5 sacks. Of course, the Dolphins starting two rookies (much-coveted LT Austin Jackson, and RG Kindley) aided in the Broncos effort. Special kudos to much-rejected DeShawn Williams: 3 tackles, 3 solo, 2 sacks, 2 TFL, 3 QB hits, … oh! and a Shelby-like batted pass! Final Williams note: he got one of his sacks by trampling all over his blocker and getting to Tua in less than 2.5 seconds. BEAUTIFUL! While Von’s gone, the core of Malik-Dino-Outlaw-Chubb has become the new, pretty effective LB corps identity. And for the first time in what appears to be forever, the secondary was fully healthy for one game. This resulted in Tua finding himself in multiple plays with much time but no targets, being forced to run, throw INCs, or getting sacked. The Dolphins compiled a paltry 82 total yards in the first half, and just 223 in the game. This vs a very battered D. For full disclosure: AJ Bouye had a BAD GAME, getting burned for key 1st downs, while Miami’s DeVante Parker had a good game, getting beat just once… by Simmons in the game-sealing INT (Parker had clearly beaten Callahan in the play).

Shurmur scheming to the teams’ strengths: Do you remember the movie Kung Fu Panda? How Master Xifu, in sheer desperation seeing how his only hope for salvation clings from a bumbling, inept, and overweight rookie panda, comes up with the idea of teaching Po all his kung fu skills by alluring him with food, and finding his hidden strengths there? Well, I finally see Shurmur doing just that: in desperation seeing how his only hope for salvation clings from a bumbling, inept (although not quite overweight) rookie QB. He came up with the idea after watching Lock’s success in PA, roll-outs to the right and play-fakes and he decided to feed him those aplenty for this game. That’s how Lock released some of the best passes of the day: the pass to Vannett to set up the first TD, the great crossing pass to Patrick to set up a FG (for the first Broncos’ lead in over 140 minutes of play) and the long catch-and-run by Fant to start a near-score drive in the 4Q. Shurmur also finally listened to the crowd, and decided to Pheed Phil, giving him more touches than to Gordon, resulting in 189 total run yds, and an astounding 5.7 ypc. At the start of the game, an on-screen graphic showed the Broncos O being dead-last in drives of +5 minutes, with just 7 all season long. In the game, the Broncos held two drives of +5 minutes, and one of 4:46, finishing the game with a slim favorable time of possession of 30:19.

The Bad:

Personnel selection and utilization: So many head-scratching decisions, let me list a few:

1. Bausby being let go… and having him sit for the two games since his return. Mind you, Bassey did NOT have a great game, and it almost cost us at the end (see Rookies).

2. Dotson benched for THREE games (see The Good), only seeing the field after the clearly incompetent Wilks fell injured. Would we still be seeing Wilks marching onto the field to get Lock wringed up after every other play if he were healthy today?

3. Using Jewell for pass coverage, and Alex Johnson for QB pressure. This is an exercise for next game: in LB-blitz scenarios, check out the frequency that Dino is used to put pressure on the QB, and count how many times he actually gets to the QB. Now do the same with Jewell. Outlaw seems to have a much better instinct to quickly find the hole in the line, run downhill, and get to the QB - or the RB – to make a big play (2 sacks, 4 TFL) or break plays in the backfield, but still Fangio consistently favors AJ (1 sack, 3 TFL) to do that job. Time and again, Johnson does nothing but enthusiastically hit the wall of blockers, flailing his arms helplessly, seldom getting within ten yards of the QB. At the same time, slow-footed Jewell is left behind to deal with TEs, RBs, and WRs in shallow and crossing routes, for which citius, altius, fortius Johnson is far better equipped. Not playing into their strengths. Simply swap duties, problem solved. You are welcome.

4. Use your RBs right, pleeeez! It took over half a season, but we finally saw Shurmur using Pitbull (kinda) right, now let’s hope it was not a fad. Also… I already made my case in Rookies to fix the 3rd/4th-and-short jammed run plays.

5. Of the six deep, top-off passes that Lock threw on Sunday, 5 fell incomplete, the only completion was the weird hail Mary to Patrick to end the game. Only one of those went to KJ Hamler. Wasn’t his ability to outrun his coverage the ONE reason why we drafted him?

6. It took Shurmur 6 games to give Albert O his first opportunity. Was it really necessary the wait, particularly after the disappointing results from Vannett? By the time he went down injured, O had already earned the 2nd TE spot, above all other TEs but Fant.

7. FIRE McMAHON!!!!

Turnovers: After calling a timeout to clear Lock’s confusion from watching the Phins’ D-line milling around, Lock promptly threw an INT, for the 6th game in a row (longest streak in the league). Lock actually did not lock onto his apparent first target: his eyes and head were intent on Jeudy on his left, making CB Jamal Perry take the bait, but ball-hawk Xavien Howard didn’t, crowding Patrick for his 6th INT in the season. Regardless, it was Lock’s responsibility throwing the ball directly to the defender with little analysis of the coverage in the area. Now, to hell with his 7 TDs: Melvin Gordon must protect the ball to justify his big salary. Outside of Zeke Elliott, Gordon is the only non-QB with 4 or more fumbles in the league. That is UN-FREAKING-ACCEPTABLE!!!

Where is the Killer Instinct???!!! Here is a sequence of events, draw your own conclusion: Fitz trots in as emergency reliever, halfway in 4Q, two scores behind. Throws a pass that every QB would regret, straight into the open arms of a waiting Alexander Johnson, who needlessly contorts himself to drop it (for comparison, check out Pierre-Paul's pick off Goff). Relieved, Fitz takes the Phish to field-goal range, and 3 points are on the board. One score game now. Denver drive, game nearly in the ice chest: the ball inside MIA’s 10, Lock hands the ball to Gordon, who takes it all the way to the one. But before Melvin punches it in, Van Ginkel slaps it away, fumble lost. No field goal, nada. Dolphins ball on their own 1, 2nd and long, KJack fails a tackle allowing a big 1st down conversion. Next, an unnecessary roughness flag on Chubb adds 15. A 2nd-and-20 turns into a 3rd and 11 turns into a 1st down conversion (so, going EXTRA SOFT DEFENSE again, Vic???!!!). In summary, the Broncos allow an 84-yd drive that required the most Simmons-esque play in the end zone to stop it. Everybody acts as if the Broncos win was the most natural result. FAR FROM IT! Outside of JS in the very final play, everybody seemed ready to give the game away to the Phish! Oh, but it isn't over!: the offense is unable to get even close to a 1st down, which would all but secure the win. When the inevitable 4th down with 0:04 on the clock comes, instead of punting (still you cannot blame Fangio: you do not trust THIS ST with the easiest, but most important play of the entire game), they come up with this odd deep throw to kill the clock (similar to the awkward NY Jets overly dramatic end). All that side spectacle to kill the puny final 4 seconds in the clock!

The Ugly:

Officiating: We all saw that absurd holding call on AJ Bouye. The Dolphins fans also saw a couple of ticky-tacky roughing-the-passer flags called against them, and Chubb also got called for one in a crucial drive. The NFL fan has grown accustomed to see the hand of the referee as the whimsical hand of God: unpredictable, unexplainable, inevitable, and indisputable. And just like that, everybody finds it perfectly fine and normal seeing the most egregious cases of refereeing errors, commonly aiding the most popular teams: NE (now also TB), KC, GB, PIT, while the least popular franchises (NO, DET, CIN, CLE) famously see their fate signed off by the impending yellow flag, like Greek tragedy heroes. You only need to have a look at the GB-IND game on Sunday, in which the Colts got flagged for a ridiculous 116 yards (which were still insufficient to help the Pack from losing in OT). Or the MNF game, in which the FYTB’s Bucs were granted 65 yards (vs just 7 yds for the Rams), mostly in DPI calls that helped the aging Brady to score 14 of 24 total points (again, insufficient to help a fast imploding TB team).

Interestingly enough, even though the NFL was the trailblazer in the use of officiating-aid technology, it has fallen far behind all other leagues in pretty much everything else: today, the NFL is the only major pro sports league in the world that does not have a full-time officiating body, with full-time training programs, and compensations. Even the MLS and Latin American soccer (for everybody else in the planet, football) referees receive a salary that ensures their undivided attention to their job, and provide full-on classroom training, as well as comprehensive physical conditioning programs (those refs need to run, like, A LOT!).

Furthermore, due to the complex nature of the game, (American) football relies heavily in referee criteria, which cannot be aided by replays, such as in DPI/OPI, unnecessary roughness, and unsportsmanlike conduct calls. That’s where the insufficiency of training, and the semi-professional nature of the job as NFL referee takes a toll in quality, criteria consistency, the overall reliability of the function, and of the final product as a whole.

Do you truly find it justifiable that the wealthiest pro sports monopoly in the world cannot afford to increase the salaries and training resources for the main source of its legitimacy, while all other pro sports leagues in the world are already doing it for years? Without any attempt at legitimacy, the NFL is slowly morphing into the WWE.

Around the league (Coming next week):

Looking forward: NO Saints

Next opponent: These Saints (8 – 2) have seen a thorough transformation in less than a month. Now without FHOF QB Drew Brees on the field, the identity of this team is now SUFFOCATING DEFENSE. If you watched their last three games vs the 49ers and the vaunted offenses of their Divisional rivals TB and ATL, you probably noticed that the Saints D absolutely smashed them, allowing just 25 points in those three games combined. In other words, this will be a big challenge for Lock’s O and, particularly, our rush offense. Oh, did I mention that they are also the best team in the NFC?

Offense Defense
Saints Broncos Saints Broncos
Rank Rank Rank Rank
Total YPG 373.6 12th 346.5 24th 302.2 3rd 346.3 13th
Pass YPG 248.1 14th 231.7 21st 227.9 11th 224.8 9th
Rush YPG 125.5 8th 114.8 15th 74.3 2nd 121.5 19th
Rush YPC 4.2 17th 4.4 14th 3.3 2nd 4.3 17th
Points/gm 29.5 5th 20.6 27th 22.2 8th 26.7 21th
TO Diff +5 7th -13 last

Tysom Hill (319 yds, 79% comp, 0 TD, 0 INT, 4 sacks) just debuted as a starting QB in the NFL last week, getting the W (making it a similar story for the Broncos’ D as last week vs Tua). Still, you get the feeling that wizard Sean the Grey would be able to make even Jameis Winston work like clockwork in short notice. Of course, with the trio of Kamara, Latavius Murray, and Hill rushing for almost 1,200 yds, 13 TDs, and 4.5 ypc combined, there is little pressure to put the ball in the air until trusty ol’ Drew gets his ribs and lung back fully operational. Nonetheless, if the need arises, the Saints have the Ferrari of WR corps parked in the garage, with the Swiss-army-knife Kamara leading the pack with 648 yds, 4 TDs, followed by (one of my favorite SB50 ex-Broncos) Emmanuel Sanders, WR Tre’Quan Smith, 2X Pro-Bowler TE Jared Cook, and the oft-injured 3X Pro-Bowler WR Michael Thomas (do you remember the piles of Pro-Bowlers we faced in ATL? Well, this time we saved ourselves the hassle of also facing the THIRTEEN-time Pro-Bowler Brees), who combine for just 1,202 yds in 102 recs, but for a pretty solid 10-TD haul.Offense: Sean Payton managed to deploy a pretty effective offense helmed by Tysom Hill. The bulky QB/TE put up 233 yds (one more than Matty Ice), 0 TDs, and a crazy 78% comp rate vs the Falcons D, while also scoring 2 TDs, and 51 yds rushing. Of course, with Hill behind center (and 3X Pro-Bowler RB Alvin Kamara), expect the Saints production on the ground. The Saints have a middling offense in yards gained. Although it is ranked 8th in rush YPG, it actually ranks lower than the Broncos in rush ypc (4.4 vs 4.2). The main difference between their O and ours resides in putting points on the board: while ours ranks 27th, they are ranked 5th. The Saints offense scores ALMOST NINE (NINE!!!!!) points more than the Broncos’ (these gaps keep getting wider by the week, right?). Probably that TO differential has something to do with it…

Defense: Now, this defense (3rd best in the league) is scary good. Probably you enjoyed watching FYTB running for his life a couple of weeks ago at the hands of this D. Well, it is now the turn for Lock to do the same. Even more concerning, this D should strike fear in our RB tandem, as this run D is ranked 2nd (SECOND!) in the league, allowing just 3.3 ypc, or a whole yard less per carry than the Broncos D. Three players have 5 sacks or more, all three D-linemen: NFL sack co-leader Trey Hendrickson (9.5), Cameron Jordan (5.5), and David Onyemata (5). Their INT leaders are S Marcus Williams (3), followed by three other players with 2 each. LB Demario Davis is their leader in tackles (66, 45 solo). For comparison, our third best tackler, Justin Simmons, has 65 tackles, 53 solo. In total, the Saints D accumulates 32 sacks, 65 TFL, 11 INTs, 4 FR, and 1 defensive TD. The Broncos D has recorded 28 sacks, 53 TFL, 7 INTs (4 of them by Simmons), and 3 FR. The Saints D allows 4.5 ppg less than the Broncos.

Special teams: New Orleans has a better ST than the Broncos, everybody has a better ST than the Broncos. My son’s pee-wee league team has a better ST than the Broncos (and it is a little league baseball team!).

Turnovers: Things keep getting uglier and uglier every week. The Broncos sit at the very bottom of the barrel in TO differential with minus 13, while the Saints are 7th, with +5. The two turnovers vs the Dolphins turned a relatively comfortable game into a last-minute nail-biter. You do not want that to happen vs a serious Super Bowl contender.

Spread:

Guess what? Broncos are underdogs again! This time by 6 points. ESPN’s Matchup Predictor gives a 69% chance of a Saints win, one of the highest I have seen against the Broncos since I started this series. Because my gloomy prediction worked in favor of the Broncos last week (and because it is the most obvious scenario), I again predict an ugly Denver loss. The Saints D will prove simply impossible to handle, overpowering the Broncos flimsy O in all aspects. We will be lucky not to be left scoreless. Take the over.

This is a Fan-Created Comment on MileHighReport.com. The opinion here is not necessarily shared by the editorial staff of MHR.