FanPost

Sultan Azteca's Weekly Post 8 – Drew Lock’s Redemption Edition

Link to the full game video:

Panthers

Chiefs

In Context: (So, how does Lock REALLY measure up?)

"He has no skills, and never will!"

"He is still technically a rookie, give him more time"

"He is THE WORST in the league, look at all other rooks BURNING the league!"

"He is a victim of the circumstances, no other rookie QB has gone through what he has!"

"I am tired of Lock’s crap! Cut him now and get college QB prospect/Vet FA/Trade target XYZ NOW!!!".

Too much has been said about Lock’s abilities and inabilities, limitations and potential, but what are the numbers really telling us? How have all other top QB rookies of his class fare in the same timeframe Lock is through?

In order to keep things as comparable as possible, I did a detailed analysis comparing stats of each of the fourteen QBs selected in the 1st and 2nd round-pick in the years ‘18, ‘19, and ’20, that is, the drafts for the years before, of, and after Lock’s selection (BTW, this is why this week I will forego the usual analysis of the REALLY EXCITING game vs Panthers, GO BRONCOS!).

The first portion of my analysis is a comparison of the first 5 games of each QB, conceding two lines for Lock: the 2019 Lock and the first-5-games 2020 Lock. Because Lock had to learn a completely different playbook with little field time to rehearse it, I consider his time under Shurmur as a "reset" back to rookie status. Also, I believe that anybody looking would acknowledge the striking difference in performance and approach between Lock under Scangs (conservative, effective, confident, winning), and under Shurmur (reckless, ineffectual, hesitant, loser). Because that small sample of games arguably reflects a rookie QB’s raw abilities, I will call that the "pre-packaged talent" analysis.

Also, not all rookies start their careers the same: some were inserted as "one-play tricks" for several games before their first start (like Lamar Jackson), while others were expected to pass 40+ passes per game (like top selections Kyler Murray and Joe Burrow), while some others had their dropback counts carefully limited from their first start (like Tua, and Josh Allen). This caused that the total attempts wildly varied from one QB to the next, so I decided to establish a completely scientifically proven and totally random rule of selecting the period of whatever came last between 5 started games or the game completing >150 pass attempts.

Lock is yet to start his 16th game this coming Saturday vs Bills. Still, some compare his performance with 2 or 3-yr veterans Mayfield, Darnold, and Murray, which is obviously skewed by their accumulated experience. So, how to fix that? The second section is a comparison of the performance of each QB in their first 15 games. Why 15? Well, that is the number of starts Lock has as of today. Results could have been different if I had done this analysis before, or if I had waited until the end of the season. But it is what it is (and people are still making opinions on even more skewed bases as mentioned above). So this is my best try at fixing that, which is why I call it the "apples-to-apples" analysis. For those QBs that have not started 15 games yet (Dwayne Haskins, the 2020 Class, etc.) I put their entire career stats (because there is no other option and because I calls the shots here). Of course, in this analysis there is only one Lock: his entire career.

Finally, I provide a W/L record analysis for each QB at their 15-start marker. Although I agree that this is the most debatable portion (e.g. Lamar has a long leg up on Burrow), it is important to bring it to the front to validate/disprove the most important question in the debate: are the Broncos capable of winning with this QB? So, without further ado, here the results:

The "Pre-packaged Talent" Analysis

First 5 game or >150 attempts ("Pre-packaged talent")

Name

Rd (Pick #)

Year

Team

Att

Comp %

TD

INT

Sacks

Rating

QBR

Justin Herbert

1 (6)

2020

LAC

184

67.4%

12

3

10

110.9

70.4

Tua Tagovailoa

1 (5)

2020

MIA

136

63.2%

7

0

10

99.4

63.9

Drew Lock (Scangs)

2 (42)

2019

DEN

156

64.1%

7

3

5

89.7

50.2

Kyler Murray

1 (1)

2019

ARI

238

64.3%

7

4

21

88.6

58.9

Lamar Jackson

1 (32)

2018

BAL

170

58.2%

6

3

16

84.5

46.2

Joe Burrow

1 (1)

2020

CIN

207

65.2%

6

3

22

84.2

41.4

Jalen Hurts

2 (53)

2020

PHI

45

55.6%

2

1

3

82.5

40.2

Baker Mayfield

1 (1)

2018

CLE

187

57.8%

6

5

18

81.9

40.6

Sam Darnold

1 (3)

2018

NYJ

149

55.7%

7

6

11

80.3

37.7

Daniel Jones

1 (6)

2019

NYG

175

61.1%

6

7

18

75.5

43.1

Josh Allen

1 (7)

2018

BUF

158

52.5%

3

5

21

67.2

43.1

Josh Rosen

1 (10)

2018

ARI

169

55.6%

5

6

16

66.9

41.4

Drew Lock (Shurmur)

2 (42)

2019

DEN

143

58.0%

4

5

8

65.2

32.2

Dwayne Haskins

1 (15)

2019

WAS

160

55.0%

3

7

26

61.6

20.5

Jordan Love

1 (26)

2020

GB

0

0.0%

0

0

0

-

-

So, right off the bat, we see that the 2020 draft produced the most plug-and-play QB class in the past three years. Of the 6 QBs with the best QB rating in their first 5 games, all three 2020 1st round picks are present: Herbert at the top, followed by Tua, and Burrow at 6th. In between we find Kyler Murray in 4th and Lamar in 5th. Notably, inserted in 3rd place we find true-rookie 2019 Drew Lock (under Scangs), with an 89.7, only behind Tua’s 99.4, and Herbert’s 110.9. ESPN’s QBR also places Scangs’ Lock in 4th, only behind Herbert, Tua, and Murray. Down at the bottom we find the obvious busts Josh Rosen, Dwayne Haskins, Josh Allen (?), and again, Drew Lock (now under Shurmur). This is the version many of us hate, totally forgetting that, early on, he was one of the best QBs by most measures.

Moving on to other stats, in Completion % we find that Scangs’ Lock places 4th (64.1%), only behind Hebert, Burrow and Murray. Even Shurmur’s Lock is not too terrible, placing mid-pack (58%), ranking above the likes of 1st overall pick Baker Mayfield, Sam Darnold, and Josh Allen. In TD-to-INT ratio, Scangs’ Lock also rates 3rd highest (2.33), only behind Tua and Herbert. Shurmur’s Lock fares much worse (0.8), only besting Josh Allen and Dwayne Haskins.

One important note: The Scangs’ Lock and the Shurmur’s Lock have something in common: they are the hardest to be taken down, with the 2019 Lock being the least sacked per dropback (3.1%), followed by 2020 Lock (3.6%), followed by Herbert with 5.2%.

The "Apples-to-Apples" Analysis

First 15 games ("Apples to apples")

Name

Att

Comp %

TD

INT

Sack

Rating

QBR

Tua Tagovailoa

184

62.0%

9

1

14

95.2

57.3

Justin Herbert

499

66.3%

25

10

26

94.7

66.5

Baker Mayfield

524

63.9%

28

17

30

91.7

49.5

Joe Burrow

404

65.3%

13

5

32

89.8

56.4

Lamar Jackson

408

61.8%

18

8

34

88.0

56.9

Kyler Murray

500

64.6%

18

10

47

87.8

59.5

Daniel Jones

572

61.5%

26

16

47

84.0

55.3

Sam Darnold

487

59.5%

20

16

36

81.2

46.9

Drew Lock

479

59.5%

20

16

17

79.7

50.2

Dwayne Haskins

361

59.6%

11

10

43

77.5

28.8

Josh Allen

423

55.6%

13

15

33

71.2

49.1

Josh Rosen

477

54.5%

12

17

56

62.3

24.7

So, comparing Lock’s 15 games in his career vs the rest, we see that Lock might not be the worst of the pack, but he is certainly in the bottom half in QB rating (79.7), only better than Haskins, Allen, and the downtrodden Josh Rosen. His rating is particularly hurt by his accuracy (59.5%), only better than both Joshes, and tied with Sam Darnold.

Lock’s TD-to-INT ratio is not much better: His 1.25 ratio is ranked 8th out of 12 QBs, only better than the Joshes, Haskins, and tied with Sam Darnold. In ESPN’s QBR, Lock fares a tad better, ranking 7th out of 12. As mentioned above, Lock is the Great Houdini in the group, ranking the best at sacks/dropbacks with 3.4%, followed by Herbert at 5.0%.

"Just Give Me the Ws!!!" Analysis

Name

W

L

Win %

Lamar Jackson

12

3

80%

Tua Tagovailoa

4

2

67%

Drew Lock

8

7

53%

Josh Allen

8

7

53%

Baker Mayfield

7

8

47%

Kyler Murray

5

10

33%

Sam Darnold

5

10

33%

Dwayne Haskins

3

8

27%

Justin Herbert

3

9

25%

Joe Burrow

2.5

7.5

25%

Daniel Jones

3

12

20%

Josh Rosen

3

12

20%

So, let’s talk "intangibles" (for whatever that means). What QB is capable of taking the team to safe harbor in spite of competition and his own limitations?

In their first 15 starts, only four QBs in this analysis have a winning record:

Lamar Jackson accumulated a ridiculous 12 – 3 record. Before him, Flacco was struggling with a 4 – 5 record as starter before Lamar took over (Flacco had a 9 – 7 record the season before). As a result, he was named MVP of the year just in his second year in the NFL.

Tua Tagovailoa has a brief but solid 4 – 2 record so far (with 1 of the losses in the hands of the Broncos and Lock himself) after taking over from Ryan Fitzpatrick, who accumulates a 4 – 3 record in the same season (and going 5 – 4 at the end of the prior season). Really impressive stats for Tua, now let’s see if he can continue making a difference in the W column in his tender career.

Josh Allen had an 8 – 7 record. Even though he is today considered the very definition of the franchise saving QB, Allen actually picked up a team that had just visited the playoffs one year earlier with a 9 – 7 record, guided by the hand of Tyrod Taylor (and swiftly eliminated). Same as Jackson in BAL, Allen took an already competitive team to the next level, getting all the Ws in a season that ended 6 – 10, with 5 of those Ls with vets Derek Anderson and (THE) Nathan Peterman as starters. His W/L record might come as a surprise, as his QB’ing numbers were some of the worst among his peers at that stage of his career (even worse than Lock's in nearly all measures). Of course, rushing for over 762 yds and 10 TD helped the cause.

Drew Lock, just like Josh Allen, accumulates an 8 – 7 record (better than the rest of the QBs outside of the three above-mentioned) in spite of underwhelming stats and without the privilege of Allen’s run play talent. In the same period, the other Bronco QBs have yielded far fewer Ws. Flacco (another starter), a small crew of backups (Allen, Driskel, Rypien), and a dude caught by surprise by 2020 shenanigans (Hinton) combine for a 4 – 10 record, 60.4% comp, 14 TD-15 INT, 50 (FIFTY) sacks, a 69.5 QB rating, and a 44.9 QBR. The whole group individually (even excluding Hinton’s game) would place below Lock in all stats other than completion %. In other words, for better or worse, Lock is hands-down the best QB the Broncos have fielded in the past two years, under two different OCs.

In conclusion:

I may draw some conclusions from this exercise, but still a few answers linger in the future, and (most likely) your conclusions will be entirely different altogether:

1. Using his early success in the Scangs era (which has somehow fallen into oblivion) should remind us that Lock had the tools for success coming into the NFL. In retrospective, most detractors have preferred to blow out known shortcomings that seemed to be somehow mastered, or at least minimized, early on (limited field vision, accuracy, struggle under pressure, mechanics inconsistency), while making up new ones (deep ball issues, frailty, limited learning abilities, lack of athleticism). The argument for Lock being an "obvious bust" falls flat when comparing Lock’s extraordinary start of his career, when compared with all top-ranked QB rookies of the past three years, outside of top-10 selections Herbert and Tua. Do you remember the conversations at the end of 2019 of how a QB like Lock is expected to lift the performance of all those around him, such as Garett Bolles? What a difference a year makes!

2. Lock’s career stats are poor, no question about it, even after factoring in his effective outings in the Scangs era. He needs to prove growth and consistency to earn an unqualified QBotF moniker in this team. Nonetheless, taking solely his 2020 numbers might be misleading, even deliberately biased. Regardless, Lock is NOT the overall worst QB drafted in the past three years, and (as proved last week) even less so the worst QB in the league today. Insisting on this line of argument is largely blind hate.

3. Drew Lock has been, and still is, the best option for the Broncos in the house, period. Not Rypien, and very likely not Bortles. With the exact same team, under the exact same systems, Lock’s stats and record are better than all other alternatives in the Broncos locker room since he was recruited. True, competition has been non-existent, but such a boneheaded decision is not Lock’s fault.

4. Interceptions. Lock’s most frustrating trait seems to show in bunches: 9 of his 17 INT came in his only four multi-INT games, while also posting 4 games with zero INT. In his defense, turnovers have been a constant in Shurmur’s O in Denver: without Lock at the helm, the Broncos have posted 3 multi-INT games out of 4, none with zero INTs.

5. So, how does Lock manage to get those Ws even with his underwhelming stats? I got a theory. Drew Lock has proved that he can be relied on one thing: not getting sacked. Although this fact is little discussed today, Lock is less than half as likely to get sacked than any other QB in the analyzed group (except for the otherworldly, but still losing, Herbert), while his fellow Bronco QBs have a sack/dropback ratio nearly 3 times higher than Lock does behind the same O-line. Sacks in most cases will cause drives to end abruptly, not only by costing the team a lost down, but also by causing major loss of yardage, and eventual field position. The most-sacked QBs in the analysis, Daniel Jones and Kyler Murray (both with 47 sacks) each were sacked 30 times and lost +200 yds more than Lock in their first 15 games. Butter-hands Jones also adds 8 more fumbles than Lock. By staying upright, Lock is actually helping the O to stay on the field, make points, protect field position, and keep the defense on the bench longer.

6. In the same span of their corresponding careers, Lock has more wins than nearly all other top-selected rookies of the past three years. He is just one of four QBs (including an MVP) that enjoyed a winning record over their equivalent first near-full season period as starters. This fact can be twisted into a million shapes depending on your pre-defined opinions on Lock, but the fact still remains: Lock has been a winner more than all his teammates, and more than two-thirds of the top QB rookies around the league.

Prediction

My prediction read: "Fielding 11 rookies+1-yr vets, and an entirely new O-line will not make for an easy task out there. Lock gets constantly harassed, but still throws 2 TDs to 1 INT vs a much depleted CAR D. A couple of mistakes by the rookies in the secondary, and lack of pressure from the D-line allows just enough points on the board for the Broncos to lose. If we pull out the W with this team, I would be really happy with our expectations going into 2021. Nonetheless, we will have plenty of pretty highlights and career firsts (Tuszka's first sack, Cox's first TD, OJM first INT) to keep us happy regardless of the 23-21 final score."

Partly by choice, partly by force majeure, Fangio indulged a portion of my all-rookie fantasia, with bunches of backups and new names in the O-line and the D, including a secondary that few would have imagined at the beginning of the season (Parks? Bausby? Holder? Dawson?) were ready to take the challenge and beat the odds vs a Carolina O that came to life in the 2H, forcing the Broncos O to keep churning out points to the end. Lock was harassed, but he responded better than anybody could imagine. We got a few career firsts (Muti's first snaps, Spencer's first ST TD, KJH's first multiple TD game, Lock's first 4 TD game), and a W that should keep us really happy with our expectations going into 2021.

Looking forward: BUF Bills

Next opponent: A serious SB contender coming to town. After beating the Steelers in an anti-climactic SNF showdown, the Bills (10 – 3) are only one game behind PIT to take over the 2nd seed in the AFC, which feels quite feasible. The highly-coveted 1st seed is quite a bit of a stretch, as the Chiefs sit two games up front with just four games left. Either way, with their sights (hopefully) more focused on their next game (in NE, facing their perennial tormentor), and with a shortened, traveling week, the Bills might be overlooking the lowly Broncos at their own peril.

With a high-powered passing O, but quite underwhelming rush O and defense, the Bills might actually be giants with feet of clay. Nonetheless, with a secondary in shambles, a lukewarm QB-pressing unit, and facing the third highly-mobile QB in a row, Josh Allen & Co might be an ill match to the Broncos D. Still, if Fangio still dreams of reaching his first 0.500 record ever, he needs to win out.

Offense

Defense

Bills

Broncos

Panthers

Broncos

Rank

Rank

Rank

Rank

Total YPG

375.4

10th

328.6

25th

363.8

20th

351.7

16th

Pass YPG

272.8

3rd

211.5

26th

243.9

19th

220.7

10th

Rush YPG

102.5

22nd

117.2

13th

119.9

19th

131.0

27th

Rush YPC

4.0

24th

4.3

15th

4.6

27th

4.6

26th

Points/gm

27.6

8th

19.8

29th

24.7

15th

26.7

23rd

TO Diff

+2

14th

-18

last

Offense:

Buffalo’s vaunted O is an aerial show, rolling out the 3rd best offense in pass, piloted by Lock-advocates’ Exhibit A, QB Josh Allen (3,641 yds, 68.6% comp, 28 TD, 9 INT, 24 sacks, 103.3 rating). Additionally, Allen contributes with his legs, scoring 6 TD on the ground with 350 yds, good for 2nd best in the team.

RB Devin Singletary is the lead rusher of a run O humbly ranked at 24th, with 576 yds (4.3 ypc) but only 1 TD, with fellow RB Zach Moss scoring 3 TD with just 335 yds. In an air-attack dominated by WRs, the 3-headed monster of FA Stephon Diggs, old-as-time Cole Beasley, and rookie Gabriel Davis combine for 2,446 yds and 15 TD, with the rook contributing 6 of those out of just 28 catches. The Bills O scores 7.8 ppg more than the Broncos, ranking 8th in that stat.

Defense:

Facing a D ranked 19th in pass and 27th in ypc (a near carbon copy of the Panthers’ stats), it would be a good idea for Shurmur to make just minor tweaks to the very successful blueprint he designed for Carolina, and recycle it against the Bills (without Wilks on the line, though). The Bills D is another chance for Lock to put up a good game. Also, same as the Panthers, the Bills D allows only 1.7 ppg fewer than the Broncos’, once again, thanks to a favorable TO differential.

Continuing with the similarities with Carolina, the Bills tackling leader is a safety, Jordan Poyer, who happens to hold the 3rd highest solo total in the league, with 82 (109 solo), while adding 2 INT to his vast production. LB Tremaine Edmunds and CB Taron Johnson (who also owns the only Bills’ pick-six in the season) trail Poyer in solo tackles, with 61 each. Sack leaders are LB AJ Klein (5) and DEs Jerry Hughes (4.5) and Mario Addison (4), out of a total of 31 for BUF (compared to 36 for the Broncos). Tre’Davious While is the leader in INT with 3 of the 12 INT that the Bills accumulate (Broncos have only 8). This should be a game in which Lock shines again (just avoid being disappointed: don’t expect another 4 TD, 0 INT display again!).

Special teams:

Thanks to Diontae’s great play last week, the Broncos ST deserves a bit more serious analysis this week: the Bills historically field some of the best returning squads in the league. 2020 is no exception. BUF is 2nd in the league in KO yds ret (27.1, vs Broncos’ 20.5, ranked 22nd). They also place 4th in punt yds ret, with 13.5. However, with Spencer’s punt return, the Broncos are now a member of a select group of six teams that have returned a punt for TD in the season, and vaulted the Broncos to 2nd place in avg yds, with 13.5. The Bills are yet to see a TD by their ST.

Turnovers:

Have you heard of the Theory of the Expanding Universe? Well, let’s say that the Broncos see the light emitted by the other 31 NFL teams going redshifted. For the FOURTH consecutive week, the distance from the peloton continues growing. Thanks to the demolition-strip-sack on Lock (the 13th FR by the Panthers, best in the league), and the inability of the Broncos D to generate a single takeaway, the minus 17 TO diff of last week just turned into minus 18, now 8 (EIGHT! almost HALF) TOs away from the 2nd worst teams (Iggles, Boys, Cincy).

In the first play after Lock’s 1st TD, Teddy B gift-wrapped a pass for Bassey to turn it into his first INT of the season. Instead, he dropped it to the ground like a heavy and smelly baby diaper. He is not alone: Bassey's dropped INT adds to KJack’s vs KC, and Dino's vs NO in the past three weeks alone. Dropped INTs and extremely few fumbles (only 3 recovered – worst in the league) have added up to a miserable 11 takeaways in the season, 2nd worst in the NFL.

As I have pointed out several times here, turnovers play a key role in the 2020 Broncos Tale of Failure, both, by the D’s inability to create takeaways, and the O’s passion to act as Secret Santa to the rest of the league since September. Meanwhile, Buffalo has a +2 TO differential, with 10 more takeaways, and 10 fewer giveaways than Denver.

Spread:

Totally expected, the Broncos are seen as underdogs at home once again, with a 6.5-point spread. ESPN’s Matchup Predictor offers 62.3% chances of a Buffalo win (that’s a slightly lower % chance than that granted to the Panthers last week, perhaps because of the home team condition). Trying to stick to the strategy of recent weeks, I will predict a straight Broncos’ loss, although the spread will be covered, with the caveat that the Broncos must continue playing the mostly mistake-free brand of football we have seen in recent weeks.

This is a Fan-Created Comment on MileHighReport.com. The opinion here is not necessarily shared by the editorial staff of MHR.