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The Broncos did not throw deep very often (or very well) in 2019. This was partly due to having only one viable deep threat on the team, Courtland Sutton, after we traded away Emmanuel Sanders. Of the five most frequent deep passing teams in 2019 (125 or more deep attempts), only Green Bay had a lone viable deep target, Davanta Adams. The other four teams: Tampa Bay, Detroit, LAC and Kansas City, all had at least two deep threats. The Broncos threw deep only 77 times in 2019. I discussed this at length here. One way to ensure more deep pass attempts in 2020 is to get another deep threat to pair with Sutton. Deep threats tend to be speedy wide receivers. Speedy WRs tend to get drafted in the first two rounds.
Over the past 30 NFL drafts there have been 39 WRs taken in the top 10. Some of those guys were taken in the top 10 despite running “poorly” in the 40 at the Combine, while others were taken in the top 10 based almost completely on their 40 time.
Mike Evans ran a 4.53 40 at the Combine; he was still drafted seventh overall. Larry Fitzgerald ran a 4.48; he was taken third overall. J.J. Stokes ran a 4.51 at the Combine. He was still taken tenth overall. Michael Westbrook ran the same 4.51 and was taken fourth overall.
On the flip-side, Darrius Heyward-Bey ran a 4.25, but only caught 13 total TD passes during his three years at Maryland. He was still drafted seventh overall. Corey Davis didn’t run at the combine because of injury, but he was still taken fifth overall. Note that there have been two different Mike Williams who play(ed) WR in the NFL and were drafted in the top 10.
Year | Pick | Player | DrAge | Tm | From | To | 1st Tm AP | ProBowl | Starter | CarAV | Rec | Yds | TD | College/Univ |
2017 | 5 | Corey Davis | 22 | TEN | 2017 | 2019 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 14 | 142 | 1867 | 6 | West. Michigan |
2017 | 7 | Mike Williams | 22 | LAC | 2017 | 2019 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 15 | 103 | 1760 | 12 | Clemson |
2017 | 9 | John Ross | 22 | CIN | 2017 | 2019 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 5 | 49 | 716 | 10 | Washington |
2015 | 4 | Amari Cooper | 21 | OAK | 2015 | 2019 | 0 | 4 | 5 | 39 | 357 | 5097 | 33 | Alabama |
2015 | 7 | Kevin White | 23 | CHI | 2016 | 2018 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 25 | 285 | 0 | West Virginia |
2014 | 4 | Sammy Watkins | 21 | BUF | 2014 | 2019 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 36 | 284 | 4244 | 31 | Clemson |
2014 | 7 | Mike Evans | 21 | TAM | 2014 | 2019 | 0 | 3 | 6 | 49 | 462 | 7260 | 48 | Texas A&M |
2013 | 8 | Tavon Austin | 23 | STL | 2013 | 2019 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 25 | 215 | 2006 | 15 | West Virginia |
2012 | 5 | Justin Blackmon | 22 | JAX | 2012 | 2014 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 9 | 93 | 1280 | 6 | Oklahoma St. |
2011 | 4 | A.J. Green | 23 | CIN | 2011 | 2018 | 0 | 7 | 8 | 68 | 602 | 8907 | 63 | Georgia |
2011 | 6 | Julio Jones | 22 | ATL | 2011 | 2019 | 2 | 7 | 8 | 94 | 797 | 12125 | 57 | Alabama |
2009 | 7 | Darrius Heyward-Bey | 22 | OAK | 2009 | 2018 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 22 | 202 | 2897 | 16 | Maryland |
2009 | 10 | Michael Crabtree | 21 | SFO | 2009 | 2019 | 0 | 0 | 9 | 53 | 637 | 7499 | 54 | Texas Tech |
2007 | 2 | Calvin Johnson | 21 | DET | 2007 | 2015 | 3 | 6 | 9 | 78 | 731 | 11619 | 83 | Georgia Tech |
2007 | 9 | Ted Ginn | 22 | MIA | 2007 | 2019 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 52 | 409 | 5702 | 33 | Ohio St. |
2005 | 3 | Braylon Edwards | 22 | CLE | 2005 | 2012 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 41 | 359 | 5522 | 40 | Michigan |
2005 | 7 | Troy Williamson | 22 | MIN | 2005 | 2009 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 8 | 87 | 1131 | 4 | South Carolina |
2005 | 10 | Mike Williams | 21 | DET | 2005 | 2011 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 12 | 127 | 1526 | 5 | USC |
2004 | 3 | Larry Fitzgerald | 21 | ARI | 2004 | 2019 | 1 | 11 | 16 | 92 | 1378 | 17083 | 120 | Pittsburgh |
2004 | 7 | Roy Williams | 22 | DET | 2004 | 2011 | 0 | 1 | 7 | 42 | 393 | 5715 | 44 | Texas |
2004 | 9 | Reggie Williams | 21 | JAX | 2004 | 2008 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 23 | 189 | 2322 | 18 | Washington |
2003 | 2 | Charles Rogers | 22 | DET | 2003 | 2005 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 36 | 440 | 4 | Michigan St. |
2003 | 3 | Andre Johnson | 22 | HOU | 2003 | 2016 | 2 | 7 | 12 | 95 | 1062 | 14185 | 70 | Miami (FL) |
2001 | 8 | David Terrell | 22 | CHI | 2001 | 2005 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 11 | 128 | 1602 | 9 | Michigan |
2001 | 9 | Koren Robinson | 21 | SEA | 2001 | 2008 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 35 | 294 | 4244 | 16 | North Carolina St. |
2000 | 4 | Peter Warrick | 23 | CIN | 2000 | 2005 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 27 | 275 | 2991 | 18 | Florida St. |
2000 | 8 | Plaxico Burress | 23 | PIT | 2000 | 2012 | 0 | 0 | 9 | 69 | 553 | 8499 | 64 | Michigan St. |
2000 | 10 | Travis Taylor | 22 | BAL | 2000 | 2007 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 32 | 312 | 4017 | 22 | Florida |
1999 | 6 | Torry Holt | 23 | STL | 1999 | 2009 | 1 | 7 | 11 | 99 | 920 | 13382 | 74 | North Carolina St. |
1999 | 8 | David Boston | 21 | ARI | 1999 | 2005 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 37 | 315 | 4699 | 25 | Ohio St. |
1997 | 7 | Ike Hilliard | 21 | NYG | 1997 | 2008 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 43 | 546 | 6397 | 35 | Florida |
1996 | 1 | Keyshawn Johnson | 24 | NYJ | 1996 | 2006 | 0 | 3 | 10 | 78 | 814 | 10571 | 64 | USC |
1996 | 7 | Terry Glenn | 22 | NWE | 1996 | 2007 | 0 | 1 | 9 | 67 | 593 | 8823 | 44 | Ohio St. |
1995 | 4 | Michael Westbrook | 23 | WAS | 1995 | 2002 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 38 | 285 | 4374 | 26 | Colorado |
1995 | 8 | Joey Galloway | 23 | SEA | 1995 | 2010 | 0 | 0 | 10 | 77 | 701 | 10950 | 77 | Ohio St. |
1995 | 10 | J.J. Stokes | 22 | SFO | 1995 | 2003 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 40 | 342 | 4293 | 30 | UCLA |
1993 | 7 | Curtis Conway | 22 | CHI | 1993 | 2004 | 0 | 0 | 9 | 61 | 594 | 8230 | 52 | USC |
1992 | 4 | Desmond Howard | 22 | WAS | 1992 | 2002 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 17 | 123 | 1597 | 7 | Michigan |
1991 | 10 | Herman Moore | 21 | DET | 1991 | 2002 | 3 | 4 | 8 | 80 | 670 | 9174 | 62 | Virginia |
What you should note from this table is that there are just as many, if not more, busts (John Ross, Kevin White, Justin Blackmon, Troy Williamson, Mike Williams {both?}, and Charles Rogers) as there are future or current Hall of Famers. Torry Holt is already in. Andre Johnson is borderline. Calvin Johnson will be in soon. Larry Fitzgerald will be once he is done. Julio Jones will be once he is done. A.J. Green has a chance. Mike Evans will if be his career continues on its current trajectory.
So let’s look at the very small subset of speed merchant (4.35s in the 40 or better) WR’s who were taken in the top 10 since 1990 - keeping in mind that some of these top 10 guys either could not or chose not to run the 40 at the combine. Joey Galloway’s time was from his pro-day.
Year | Name | College | Drafted | Height (in) | Weight (lbs) | 40 Yard |
2011 | Julio Jones | Alabama | 6 | 74.75 | 220 | 4.34 |
2015 | Kevin White | West Virginia | 7 | 74.63 | 215 | 4.35 |
2009 | Darrius Heyward-Bey | Maryland | 7 | 73.63 | 210 | 4.25 |
2005 | Troy Williamson | South Carolina | 7 | 73.38 | 203 | 4.34 |
2013 | Tavon Austin | West Virginia | 8 | 68.50 | 174 | 4.34 |
1995 | Joey Galloway | Ohio State | 8 | 71.00 | 200 | 4.18 |
2017 | John Ross | Washington | 9 | 70.75 | 188 | 4.22 |
2001 | Santana Moss | Miami (FL) | 16 | 69.60 | 184 | 4.31 |
I threw in Santana Moss since he was taken 16th overall and the Broncos are drafting 15th. What’s crazy is that of those eight WRs, five were busts. Jones, mentioned earlier, will most likely be a Hall of Famer. Both Galloway and Moss had really good careers. With 77 receiving TDs, Galloway is 31st all-time on the career list. The majority of those ahead of him on the list are in the HoF or will be (Antonio Gates, Hines Ward, Reggie Wayne, and Rob Gronkowski).
If we look at the full list of 56 WRs who have run 4.35 or better at the Combine since 1990, we find that almost half of them, 26, were taken in the first 76 picks.
Year | Name | College | Drafted | Height (in) | Weight (lbs) | 40 Yard |
2020 | Henry Ruggs | Alabama | ? | 72.00 | 190 | 4.27 |
2020 | Quez Watkins | Southern Mississippi | ? | 74.00 | 190 | 4.35 |
2019 | Mecole Hardman | Georgia | 56 | 70.25 | 187 | 4.33 |
2019 | Parris Campbell | Ohio State | 59 | 71.88 | 205 | 4.31 |
2019 | Andy Isabella | Massachusetts | 62 | 68.75 | 188 | 4.31 |
2019 | D.K. Metcalf | Mississippi | 64 | 75.38 | 228 | 4.33 |
2019 | Terry McLaurin | Ohio State | 76 | 72.13 | 208 | 4.35 |
2018 | D.J. Chark | Louisiana State | 61 | 75.00 | 199 | 4.34 |
2017 | John Ross | Washington | 9 | 70.75 | 188 | 4.22 |
2017 | Curtis Samuel | Ohio State | 40 | 71.00 | 196 | 4.31 |
2016 | Will Fuller | Notre Dame | 21 | 72.13 | 186 | 4.32 |
2015 | Kevin White | West Virginia | 7 | 74.63 | 215 | 4.35 |
2015 | Phillip Dorsett | Miami (FL) | 29 | 69.75 | 185 | 4.33 |
2015 | Chris Conley | Georgia | 76 | 73.88 | 213 | 4.35 |
2015 | J.J. Nelson | Alabama-Birmingham | 159 | 70.25 | 156 | 4.28 |
2014 | Brandin Cooks | Oregon State | 20 | 69.75 | 189 | 4.33 |
2014 | John Brown | Pittsburg State (KS) | 91 | 70.00 | 179 | 4.34 |
2014 | Dri Archer | Kent State (OH) | 97 | 67.75 | 173 | 4.26 |
2013 | Tavon Austin | West Virginia | 8 | 68.50 | 174 | 4.34 |
2013 | Marquise Goodwin | Texas | 78 | 68.88 | 183 | 4.27 |
2013 | Ryan Swope | Texas A&M | 174 | 72.13 | 205 | 4.34 |
2012 | Stephen Hill | Georgia Tech | 43 | 76.00 | 215 | 4.28 |
2012 | T.J. Graham | North Carolina State | 69 | 71.38 | 188 | 4.34 |
2012 | Chris Givens | Wake Forest | 96 | 71.13 | 198 | 4.35 |
2012 | Travis Benjamin | Miami (FL) | 100 | 69.88 | 172 | 4.31 |
2012 | Chris Owusu | Stanford | UDCFA | 72.13 | 196 | 4.31 |
2011 | Julio Jones | Alabama | 6 | 74.75 | 220 | 4.34 |
2011 | Aldrick Robinson | Southern Methodist (TX) | 178 | 69.63 | 184 | 4.35 |
2011 | Edmond Gates | Abilene Christian (TX) | UDCFA | 71.75 | 192 | 4.31 |
2011 | Ricardo Lockette | Fort Valley State (GA) | UDCFA | 74.13 | 211 | 4.34 |
2010 | Jacoby Ford | Clemson | 108 | 68.88 | 186 | 4.22 |
2010 | Trindon Holliday | Louisiana State | 197 | 65.25 | 166 | 4.21 |
2009 | Darrius Heyward-Bey | Maryland | 7 | 73.63 | 210 | 4.25 |
2009 | Mike Wallace | Mississippi | 84 | 72.38 | 199 | 4.28 |
2009 | Deon Butler | Penn State | 91 | 70.38 | 182 | 4.31 |
2009 | Mike Thomas | Arizona | 107 | 67.88 | 195 | 4.30 |
2009 | Louis Murphy | Florida | 124 | 74.38 | 203 | 4.32 |
2009 | Johnny Knox | Abilene Christian (TX) | 140 | 71.50 | 185 | 4.29 |
2009 | Tiquan Underwood | Rutgers | 253 | 73.13 | 184 | 4.31 |
2009 | Demetrius Byrd | Louisiana State | UDCFA | 72.25 | 196 | 4.35 |
2007 | Yamon Figurs | Kansas State | 74 | 71.25 | 174 | 4.34 |
2007 | Jason Hill | Washington State | 76 | 72.50 | 204 | 4.35 |
2006 | Chad Jackson | Florida | 36 | 72.88 | 213 | 4.35 |
2005 | Troy Williamson | South Carolina | 7 | 73.38 | 203 | 4.34 |
2005 | Jerome Mathis | Hampton (VA) | 114 | 71.25 | 181 | 4.26 |
2004 | Carlos Francis | Texas Tech | 99 | 69.10 | 198 | 4.31 |
2002 | Tim Carter | Auburn | 46 | 71.90 | 190 | 4.34 |
2002 | Aaron Lockett | Kansas State | UDCFA | 67.40 | 155 | 4.34 |
2001 | Santana Moss | Miami (FL) | 16 | 69.60 | 184 | 4.31 |
2001 | Chris Chambers | Wisconsin | 52 | 71.60 | 210 | 4.33 |
2001 | Ken-Yon Rambo | Ohio State | 229 | 72.60 | 196 | 4.34 |
1999 | Karsten Bailey | Auburn | 82 | 71.80 | 205 | 4.33 |
1999 | Rondel Menendez | Eastern Kentucky | UDCFA | 69.00 | 178 | 4.24 |
1998 | Tony Simmons | Wisconsin | 52 | 72.80 | 203 | 4.35 |
1995 | Joey Galloway | Ohio State | 8 | 71.00 | 200 | 4.18 |
1992 | Rico Smith | Colorado | 143 | 71.50 | 186 | 4.35 |
You have to go all the back to the 2015 draft to find a speed burner WR who lasted until day three. Of course, this does not count speedy WRs who were not invited to the combine. J.J. Nelson from UAB was taken with the 159th pick overall in 2015. UAB plays lower lever FBS football in conference USA. Nelson’s stats from college were decent, but nothing special (116 catches and 16 rec TDs in four seasons). Another college receiver that could fill the Broncos deep threat slot is Quez Watkins from fellow Conference USA team, Southern Miss.
In a little over two seasons, Watkins had 159 catches for 2,404 yards and 17 TDs. As a senior he averaged 18.4 yards per catch.
Watkins has the kind of speed that Mecole Hardman possesses. That speed pushed Hardman into the late second round. Hardman had a much more limited stat resume in college with only 60 catches for 961 yards and 11 rec. TDs during his two years at UGA. So if the Broncos do not get their speed burner in the first with Henry Ruggs, maybe Watkins is an option if he is there late in the second or early in the third where all five of the speed burner WRs went last year in the draft. That is also where D.J. Chark went in 2018, where Chris Conley went in 2015, and where Marquise Goodwin went in 2013.
So let’s assume that the Broncos want/need a speedy WR to “take the top off” of the defense.
Let me know in the poll how you prefer that they acquire one:
Poll
How would you prefer the Broncos get a deep threat WR for 2020?
This poll is closed
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6%
Trade up to get Ruggs in the top 10
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68%
Stand pat and get Ruggs if he’s there at 15, but get Watkins in the 2nd (46) if was miss on Ruggs at 15.
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12%
If Watkins is there at 77 get him, but maybe we don’t need to draft a speedy WR
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10%
Don’t draft Ruggs or Watkins because there is another WR in the draft who will be a much better deep threat and he is (tell in comments)
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2%
Don’t draft a deep threat, sign one of the aging vets who might still be a deep threat (Emmanuel Sanders, Tedd Ginn, Paul Richardson, Tavon Austin, Phillip Dorsett, etc.)