Elite speed at wide receiver and its effect on draft spot

The Broncos did not throw deep very often (or very well) in 2019. This was partly due to having only one viable deep threat on the team, Courtland Sutton, after we traded away Emmanuel Sanders. Of the five most frequent deep passing teams in 2019 (125 or more deep attempts), only Green Bay had a lone viable deep target, Davanta Adams. The other four teams: Tampa Bay, Detroit, LAC and Kansas City, all had at least two deep threats. The Broncos threw deep only 77 times in 2019. I discussed this at length here. One way to ensure more deep pass attempts in 2020 is to get another deep threat to pair with Sutton. Deep threats tend to be speedy wide receivers. Speedy WRs tend to get drafted in the first two rounds.

Over the past 30 NFL drafts there have been 39 WRs taken in the top 10. Some of those guys were taken in the top 10 despite running “poorly” in the 40 at the Combine, while others were taken in the top 10 based almost completely on their 40 time.

Mike Evans ran a 4.53 40 at the Combine; he was still drafted seventh overall. Larry Fitzgerald ran a 4.48; he was taken third overall. J.J. Stokes ran a 4.51 at the Combine. He was still taken tenth overall. Michael Westbrook ran the same 4.51 and was taken fourth overall.

On the flip-side, Darrius Heyward-Bey ran a 4.25, but only caught 13 total TD passes during his three years at Maryland. He was still drafted seventh overall. Corey Davis didn’t run at the combine because of injury, but he was still taken fifth overall. Note that there have been two different Mike Williams who play(ed) WR in the NFL and were drafted in the top 10.

What you should note from this table is that there are just as many, if not more, busts (John Ross, Kevin White, Justin Blackmon, Troy Williamson, Mike Williams {both?}, and Charles Rogers) as there are future or current Hall of Famers. Torry Holt is already in. Andre Johnson is borderline. Calvin Johnson will be in soon. Larry Fitzgerald will be once he is done. Julio Jones will be once he is done. A.J. Green has a chance. Mike Evans will if be his career continues on its current trajectory.

So let’s look at the very small subset of speed merchant (4.35s in the 40 or better) WR’s who were taken in the top 10 since 1990 - keeping in mind that some of these top 10 guys either could not or chose not to run the 40 at the combine. Joey Galloway’s time was from his pro-day.

I threw in Santana Moss since he was taken 16th overall and the Broncos are drafting 15th. What’s crazy is that of those eight WRs, five were busts. Jones, mentioned earlier, will most likely be a Hall of Famer. Both Galloway and Moss had really good careers. With 77 receiving TDs, Galloway is 31st all-time on the career list. The majority of those ahead of him on the list are in the HoF or will be (Antonio Gates, Hines Ward, Reggie Wayne, and Rob Gronkowski).

If we look at the full list of 56 WRs who have run 4.35 or better at the Combine since 1990, we find that almost half of them, 26, were taken in the first 76 picks.

You have to go all the back to the 2015 draft to find a speed burner WR who lasted until day three. Of course, this does not count speedy WRs who were not invited to the combine. J.J. Nelson from UAB was taken with the 159th pick overall in 2015. UAB plays lower lever FBS football in conference USA. Nelson’s stats from college were decent, but nothing special (116 catches and 16 rec TDs in four seasons). Another college receiver that could fill the Broncos deep threat slot is Quez Watkins from fellow Conference USA team, Southern Miss.

In a little over two seasons, Watkins had 159 catches for 2,404 yards and 17 TDs. As a senior he averaged 18.4 yards per catch.

Watkins has the kind of speed that Mecole Hardman possesses. That speed pushed Hardman into the late second round. Hardman had a much more limited stat resume in college with only 60 catches for 961 yards and 11 rec. TDs during his two years at UGA. So if the Broncos do not get their speed burner in the first with Henry Ruggs, maybe Watkins is an option if he is there late in the second or early in the third where all five of the speed burner WRs went last year in the draft. That is also where D.J. Chark went in 2018, where Chris Conley went in 2015, and where Marquise Goodwin went in 2013.

So let’s assume that the Broncos want/need a speedy WR to “take the top off” of the defense.

Let me know in the poll how you prefer that they acquire one: