With day one in the books, it’s time to look at who made the most of their opportunities in the NFL Draft. Now obviously a draft grade is a bit of a fool’s errand this close to the thing because some players could vastly outperform expectations while others will fail for some unforeseen reason. That said, it’s a worthwhile endeavor to look at who appeared to make a pick that made sense, how it could fit, and take into consideration the opportunity cost.
Some teams got better last night. Others just got a player.
1. Cincinnati Bengals - Joe Burrow, QB
As is the case most years, it was no mystery who the pick would be. It was good to see the Bengals didn’t bungle it. Burrow’s been analyzed to the point where people were questioning his upside, but if the 23-year old can reach something close to his 2019 form in the NFL he’ll be a top tier QB.
Joe’s Grade: A
Joe Burrow said Mike Brown not only wrote a letter to him, but to Joe's mom and dad as well.
— Paul Dehner Jr. (@pauldehnerjr) April 24, 2020
"Proud to be his quarterback for quite a long time."
2. Washington - Chase Young, ED
Another chalk pick that made almost too much sense. The only other acceptable move here would have been grabbing Tua to unseat Dwayne Haskins. With that off the table, little would have made sense to pass up Young unless the haul was ridiculous. Since it wasn’t, Ron Rivera gets to a young cornerstone to the scariest front seven east of California.
Joe’s Grade: A
The Redskins defensive line:
— Field Yates (@FieldYates) April 24, 2020
DE: Chase Young
DT: Da'Ron Payne
DT: Jonathan Allen
DE: Montez Sweat
3. Detroit Lions - Jeffrey Okudah, CB
There’s been a lot of talk in recent days how Bob Quinn wanted to trade down, or take Derrick Brown, or even move way back to get K’Lavon Chaisson. In the end he stayed home and took the player I’ve expected for months. Some will knock this pick because Detroit essentially skipped out on paying Darius Slay for a younger corner. The truth is Okudah looks like a much cleaner fit for the kind of press man heavy type of coverage that Matt Patricia favors. It’s just a shame the Lions couldn’t find a way to net any other capital.
Joe’s Grade: B+
Jeffrey Okudah is a slam dunk for Detroit — fantastic player and a fantastic fit in Matt Patricia's man-heavy scheme.
— Austin Gayle (@PFF_AustinGayle) April 24, 2020
4. New York Giants - Andrew Thomas, OT
This surprised me, as I expected the Giants to be laser focused on Jedrick Wills’ 2019 tape or Tristan Wirfs’ upside. Instead they went with the rock solid Thomas, who has been a reliable bookend in the SEC for his entire career. He started at right tackle before moving to the blindside as a sophomore, and that flexibility may be underrated with both Nate Solder and Cameron Fleming already under contract. While Thomas wasn’t the first tackle on my Broncos’ big board, it’s easy to see why his reliability could appeal to Gettleman.
Joe’s Grade: B+
New Giants OT Andrew Thomas hasn't allowed more than 2 pressures in a single game since 2017. pic.twitter.com/8f4IBqLjUU
— PFF Draft (@PFF_College) April 24, 2020
5. Miami Dolphins - Tua Tagovailoa, QB
I never bought into all of the rumors about Miami cooling on Tua. They tried desperately to get him in for a workout right before the Pro Days were cancelled. While his injury history is scary enough that it can’t be ignored, what’s even scarier is the chasm between the Southpaw and every other rookie passer. Loved this pick.
Joe’s Grade: A
Wrote this down to myself the day after I got back from the combine. It was for my own mock draft pick, but Miami ended up going this route. Tua Tagovailoa represented everything the Dolphjns wanted in a QB. They just had to get comfortable with the medical, and they did. pic.twitter.com/McHZLEEVBH
— Cameron Wolfe (@CameronWolfe) April 24, 2020
6. Los Angeles Chargers - Justin Herbert, QB
I’m not nearly as low on Herbert as places like PFF are. Even still, I love this pick for the Chargers. Herbert’s a project in a similar way that Drew Lock was last year. He needs to get better at processing information, throwing with anticipation, and his accuracy comes and goes.
When I dug into his 2018 game last spring I came away pretty stumped. He’ll have a really impressive play and follow it up badly missing an easy 10-yard completion. Nothing I’ve seen since hints that much has changed. Maybe some time behind Tyrod Taylor helps him unlock his potential, but it’s a pretty expensive gamble, especially when players like Cam Newton and Jameis Winston are sitting in free agency and the defense is built to win now.
Joe’s Grade: C
QB draft ranks:
— Steve Palazzolo (@PFF_Steve) April 23, 2020
Burrow
Tua
Cam Newton
Jameis Winston
Andy Dalton
Justin Herbert, Jordan Love, Jake Fromm, Jalen Hurts, etc etc
7. Carolina Panthers - Derrick Brown, DL
Talk for a week or two has been that the NFL was much higher on Brown than the analytics community was. The divide centers on what Brown does well vs what he’s merely “good enough” at.
Brown is perhaps one of the safest players in this class so long as he can stay healthy because he should be a near elite run defender out the gate. He’s just a monstrously powerful player who can destroy rushing lanes. His ceiling is something akin to Akiem Hicks, but the Combine workout alerted many to the fact that Hicks is a really rare big man who’s both 350+ lbs and agile. Brown is more likely to be an Eddie Goldman type, just good enough as a pass rusher to contribute.
I’ve gone back and forth on him because I like the player a lot. In the end, it comes down to opportunity cost. The Panthers are a couple of stupid free agent signings away from being able to tank because their roster is so bad, and Brown won’t close the gap in the NFC South. If he had fallen to 15 or the Panthers could have moved back a little to get him I would have liked this pick more.
Joe’s Grade: C+
My two cents: The quickest way to lose in the NFL is by getting controlled on the line of scrimmage. Derrick Brown helps to fix that. He's a beast.
— Max Henson (@maxhenson) April 24, 2020
Also, the way LSU guys and Joe Brady talk about the Auburn DT... just rave about his ability to wreck things.
8. Arizona Cardinals - Isaiah Simmons, Hybrid
There was some snickering in corners of Broncos’ Country after this pick because Vance Joseph was a pretty disappointing head coach. I get that, but Simmons is actually a perfect fit for a number of reasons.
On the one hand, Joseph likes to stay in base personnel more than most defensive coordinators in the league. That means it’s on his linebackers to cover receivers and slots in man coverage quite a bit.
On the other hand it only takes looking back to Will Parks’ role on the Broncos’ 2018 defense with the Broncos to see how he’ll be able to find a role for Simmons early. That’s important because for how versatile the former Clemson Tiger is, he’ll need to find a niche to acclimate as he grows into all of his talents at the NFL level.
Joe’s Grade: A+
Just a few #NFLDraft marriages I think I'd like:
— Joe Rowles (@JoRo_NFL) April 23, 2020
- #Cardinals - Isaiah Simmons
- #Browns - Tristan Wirfs
- #Broncos - Jerry Jeudy
- #Eagles - Jalen Reagor
- #Saints - Justin Jefferson
- #49ers - Trevon Diggs
9. Jacksonville Jaguars - C.J. Henderson, CB
There’s two competing thoughts I’m going through for picks like the Jaguars’. Doug Marrone runs a good bit of Cover 1 and Cover 3, and so Henderson should be able to hit the ground running early and be pretty successful. He has the tools to be a top tier man coverage corner who can follow assignments around the formation.
Where my concern comes in is the reality that unless Jacksonville surprises people this year, chances are Henderson will have a new head coach in 2021. He has a long way to go to be more than a huge liability in anything but one on one matchup coverage. That’s a really valuable trait which helps his grade, but it’s not out of the realm of possibility for him to go from promising rookie to awful sophomore down the road.
Joe’s Grade: B-
Five #NFLDraft prospects I consider extremely dependent on fit:
— Joe Rowles (@JoRo_NFL) April 23, 2020
- Mekhi Becton
- C.J. Henderson
- Cameron Dantzler
- Ezra Cleveland
- Jordyn Brooks
10. Cleveland Browns - Jedrick Wills, OT
I thought it’d be Tristan Wirfs, but I love this pick and think Wills will be a great pick for them. My one question is I got a vibe that the former Alabama right tackle would be most comfortable staying on the strong side. After all, he never played a single game snap anywhere else with the Tide. Now he’ll be a day one starter on the left.
Joe’s Grade: A-
The #Browns had trade offers, but so far no trades: A tackle they didn’t think was going to be here at No. 10 is available: #Bama OT Jedrick Wills. A mean, nasty tackle.
— Ian Rapoport (@RapSheet) April 24, 2020
11. New York Jets - Mekhi Becton, OT
The biggest reason I liked this pick is it eliminated Becton from the pool so I didn’t have to worry about Denver taking him. He’s a high ceiling, low floor type of player I wanted no part of. What’s rather scary for him with New York is there’s a pretty good chance Adam Gase makes things all sorts of dysfunctional on his way out the door this season.
Joe’s Grade: C
Sam Darnold introducing Mekhi Becton to his new teammates. pic.twitter.com/B3rDgtxcyU
— Purple Post (@Purple_Post) April 24, 2020
12. Las Vegas Raiders - Henry Ruggs, WR
I liked Ruggs enough to have him as my WR2 for Denver, but there’s a number of reasons I’m happy Gruden grabbed him. The biggest one is that Derek Carr isn’t a real deep passer, and while Ruggs is versatile enough to be a dangerous weapon after the catch taking a decoy deep threat over Lamb and Jeudy is rich. Maybe Marcus Mariota or the next QB can maximize his talents.
Joe’s Grade: B-
Henry Ruggs is the fastest player and best deep threat in the draft.
— Robert Mays (@robertmays) April 24, 2020
And he's now about to play with a QB who lives to throw 5-yard check downs. pic.twitter.com/nsaUFNCCdc
T13. Tampa Bay Buccaneers - Tristan Wirfs, OT
While I’m generally opposed to trade ups, the Tompa Bay Gronkaneers have one or maybe two years to chase a title.
Joe’s Grade: A
Tom Brady.
— Trevor Sikkema (@TampaBayTre) April 24, 2020
New Uniforms.
Tristan Wirfs.
Tampa wins the offseason.
T14. San Francisco 49ers - Javon Kinlaw, DL
John Lynch got the cheap years out of the DeForest Buckner contract and turned him into another really athletic big man. There will be some arguments in corners that they should have gone after Jeudy or Lamb, but keep in mind they still have last year’s third round pick Jalen Hurd coming back and this class is far deeper at receiver than defensive line. My one concern is Kinlaw’s knees, but it’s hard to grade too harshly there.
Joe’s Grade: B+
Javon Kinlaw has had a journey:
— CBS Sports (@CBSSports) April 24, 2020
• parents immigrated to U.S. from Trinidad
• had stints of homelessness
• moved in with his father
• bounced between motels & friends’ houses
• earned scholarship to S. Carolina
• All-American
• 14th pick in Draft pic.twitter.com/tGUwIeHO67
15. Denver Broncos - Jerry Jeudy
I’ll wind up writing a lot more about this pick once we get out of the draft. For now, I hope it’s enough to say I had Jeudy as my WR1 for the better part of the entire draft season. Before Rich Scangarello was fired I went back and forth on him and Lamb every other hour. Since I studied the Pat Shurmur offense he’s been locked in and even slid up to #5 on my final big board.
He’s the best separator I’ve ever seen from a collegiate prospect and is a far better athlete than his workout numbers suggest. He’s also versatile enough to win from inside or outside, which means the Broncos will have options for building their 3-WR sets and it should help them maximize the return if they want to grab another receiver in the draft.
In short: I love this pick. Love it.
Joe’s Grade: A+
This is the Bradley Chubb type of slide that may wind up fixing the #Broncos passing offense.
— Joe Rowles (@JoRo_NFL) April 24, 2020
Jerry Jeudy is the best separator I remember studying. His ability to play Z or slot is super valuable. I love this pick. Love it. pic.twitter.com/ySmbNh0rHx
16. Atlanta Falcons - A.J. Terrell, CB
Multiple insiders mentioned how NFL teams had the second wave of this corner class in all manner of orders. So while I have Jeff Gladney and Kristian Fulton a lot higher on my board than Terrell, I can see where the Falcons are coming from. With Desmond Trufant a Lion and a win now roster desperately in need of corner help, a battle tested Tiger makes sense. Now they just need to hope he does a better job at catch points in the NFL.
Joe’s Grade: B
Cris Collinsworth on A.J. Terrell pic.twitter.com/NaLdn5jIRt
— Matt Haley (@FalconsMHaley) April 24, 2020
17. Dallas Cowboys - CeeDee Lamb, WR
I got to give it to Jerry Jones. When I saw the tweet that he was going to be making the calls without any input from scouts I thought it’d turn into a disaster. Instead he went BPA over a need and took the 8th best player on my board. It’s also a bit overstated to suggest the Cowboy’s don’t need a receiver because in today’s NFL it’s pretty hard to have too many. If there’s one concern, it’s that Lamb’s role is going to have a little overlap with Amari Cooper and Michael Gallup’s, but I’m probably picking nits.
Joe’s Grade: A
I’m still staring at that #Cowboys CeeDee Lamb pick in disbelief. What a bonkers offense. You take the best overall talent on the board at that point and worry about the rest later.
— Charles Robinson (@CharlesRobinson) April 24, 2020
18. Miami Dolphins - Austin Jackson, OT
Thanks to my faith in Mike Munchak, I’ve been high on Jackson for a good while now. His footwork and lateral mobility are special. Unfortunately, he desperately needs an overhaul from a technical standpoint, needs to get stronger, and his eyes and mental processing need to season.
I don’t have near as much faith in Steve Marshall as I do Munchak, but I hope Jackson pans out. The league is better with good tackles in it.
Joe’s Grade: C+
Austin Jackson over Josh Jones is a hell of a gamble on upside.
— Sam Monson (@PFF_Sam) April 24, 2020
Jones is a MUCH better player right now. Dolphins gambling Jackson will be better in the future.
19. Las Vegas Raiders - Damon Arnette, CB
If you watched Jeff Essary and my livestream on Twitch you’ll know how I laughed out loud about this pick. Arnette comes from the same scheme that helps Okudah look like an easy projection into an NFL defense and should be able to help early in his career. Where I take issue is that he wasn’t near as impressive at Ohio State and there were multiple reports that question his character, specifically that he was more interested in the things being a Buckeye got him than maximizing his talent.
I had him as my CB14 in this class. Mayock could have done better here.
Joe’s Grade: D-
Thank you Mike Mayock.
— Joe Rowles (@JoRo_NFL) April 24, 2020
20. Jacksonville Jaguars - K’Lavon Chaisson, ED
The Yannick Ngakoue replacement pick to pair with the Jalen Ramsey replacement pick. Chaisson is intriguing with wicked athleticism, but he’s also a short armed pass rusher who’s had significant medical questions. It’s a bet on trait and upside.
Joe’s Grade: C
Giants LT Andrew Thomas dominating LSU pass rusher K’Lavon Chaisson pic.twitter.com/32oHPxzZ1B
— Bobby Skinner (@BobbySkinner_) April 24, 2020
21. Philadelphia Eagles - Jalen Reagor, WR
Back at the Combine there was plenty of talk in Broncos’ Country that Reagor would be a worthwhile option if Ruggs wasn’t on the board at 15. It made sense. Reagor is the closest thing the 2020 Draft had to Henry Ruggs after Henry Ruggs. Philly wanted speed and they should get it in this Horned Frog.
Joe’s Grade: A+
Percentage of accurate passes thrown their way.
— Joe Giglio (@JoeGiglioSports) April 24, 2020
Put Jalen Reagor on LSU, he’s the one with 100 catches. Put Justin Jefferson on TCU, we’re not talking about him. pic.twitter.com/CywcW3Fsjy
22. Minnesota Vikings - Justin Jefferson, WR
Boil it down and this pick is a pretty simple fit. After trading Stefon Diggs, the Vikings’ receiving corps was Adam Thielen and some flotsam. Unfortunately when a layer or two is added trouble emerges. Thielen is at his best as an intermediate threat playing out of the slot. Guess where Jefferson played the vast majority of his snaps in 2019?
Kirk Cousins should be able to make it work, but I do suspect if Minny could have they’d have grabbed Reagor here.
Joe’s Grade: B
Justin Jefferson on @SiriusXMNFL after the pick: "
— Ben Goessling (@GoesslingStrib) April 24, 2020
“That’s just something that I have to prove going to Minnesota -- that I can be that inside and outside receiver. Minnesota, I’m ready for you guys, and let’s go win that Super Bowl.”
T23. Los Angeles Chargers - Kenneth Murray, LB
LA sold their day two picks to grab a linebacker I considered a day two linebacker. You love to see it.
Joe’s Grade: D
This is 130% return for the Patriots by the AV model https://t.co/eZdg70W7mM
— Dan Pizzuta (@DanPizzuta) April 24, 2020
This could have turned out so much worse for the #Broncos. https://t.co/JvBH2BFzIr
— Joe Rowles (@JoRo_NFL) April 24, 2020
24. New Orleans Saints - Cesar Ruiz, iOL
With perhaps the best roster in football, the Saints surprised me by not trading up to chase after an instant impact type of player. What they got at 24 may be anything but an early contributor. After drafting Erik McCoy a year ago and paying Andrus Peat, Ruiz’ road to playing time could be a bumpy one during the Drew Brees’ era. On the plus side, Taysom Hill should have a rock solid group up front in ‘21 or ‘22.
Joe’s Grade: B
The Saints picking Ruiz has a Ramczyk feel to it in terms of drafting for value on the OL. The best OL in the NFL just drafted a top IOL round 1 who won’t start in 2020, but has a good shot at playing LG if Peat can’t stay on the field.
— Brandon Thorn (@BrandonThornNFL) April 24, 2020
T25. San Francisco 49ers - Brandon Aiyuk, WR
While I do believe Aiyuk brings some risks to the table that players like Jeudy don’t, it’s hard to ignore how exciting the fit is here. The Sun Devil is a receiver who may need some time to master the nuances to creating separation for himself and beating press coverage, but he goes to the best play caller in the league at scheming players open. Add to that his ability to go from 0 to 60 at the drop of a hat and he should help the Niner offense in a similar way to what Emmanuel Sanders did a year ago.
Joe’s Grade: B+
Last year the 49ers were interested in former Arizona St. WR N'Keal Harry, but he went right before their turn to New England.
— Adam Schefter (@AdamSchefter) April 24, 2020
This year the 49ers didn’t want to lose out on Arizona St. WR Brandon Aiyuk, and traded three picks to get to Minnesota’s spot at No. 25 to get him.
T26. Green Bay Packers - Jordan Love, QB
So I’m about to finish school on the eastern border of Packerland, which means I know a lot of cheeseheads. Most of them were in shock over this one, and a few thought it stunk like some bad Limburger. I saw two lines of thought at play, and neither were particularly comforting for them.
A. Management saw last year as the 36-year old Aaron Rodgers’ last real shot at a Super Bowl. With a glass ceiling settling in, it was time to bring in an heir to sit and learn while they crank out something a bit better than mediocrity.
B. Last year’s roster had so few needs they could afford to take an enigmatic project with traits and iffy production.
Joe’s Grade: F
Aaron Rodgers on @PatMcAfeeShow: "We haven't picked a skill player in the first round in 15 years, so that would be kind of cool."
— Matt Schneidman (@mattschneidman) April 24, 2020
Rodgers says whoever the pick is, he'll track down his phone number and welcome him to the team tonight -- if the Packers don't trade out.
27. Seattle Seahawks - Jordyn Brooks, LB
Meet the poor man’s Kenneth Murray. The Red Raider is a more instinctive run defender than Murray with 90ish% of the range. Where he struggles is in coverage, which is a big reason why I had him as a Day 3 pick on my Broncos’ big board. Makes all the sense in the world for a GM who tore down his wall for bandwidth.
Joe’s Grade: F
Jordyn Brooks, ranked 84th on the consensus board, 7th-ranked linebacker. Of course the Seahawks took him in the first round.
— Arif Hasan, but inside (@ArifHasanNFL) April 24, 2020
28. Baltimore Ravens - Patrick Queen, LB
The Ravens do this every year. They wait while stupid picks happen in front of them and clean up on a player that’s well regarded who somehow slips for some reason. Quick tangent, but I found it really intriguing that the Broncos were reportedly in on Queen if he slid to 29.
Joe’s Grade: A
Patrick Queen was meant to be a Raven. Loved watching his tape. Gonna be a great backer.
— Tedy Bruschi (@TedyBruschi) April 24, 2020
29. Tennessee Titans - Isaiah Wilson, OT
Many considered Wilson a third round type of talent who could have polished his way into the 2021 first round, so it’s not a huge surprise a team took him a year early over gambling on him sliding. Wilson seemingly fits a move to a more gap based running scheme in time, but he’ll need notable work on his feet and hands to grow into more than a liability.
Joe’s Grade: C
Isaiah Wilson’s mom is serious about social distancing pic.twitter.com/AiWrxKcXmS
— BroBible (@BroBible) April 24, 2020
T30. Miami Dolphins - Noah Igbinoghene, CB
The Auburn Tiger is rather inexperienced but offers some real potential. Miami wasn’t screwing around with their first round picks taking three players who could wind up as three All Pros if things fall their way, but could wind up out of the league in three years.
Joe’s Grade: B-
Auburn’s Noah Igbinoghene and Alabama’s Tua Tagovailoa reporting to their first day of training for the Dolphins
— Boosky (@sheabooskyy) April 24, 2020
pic.twitter.com/cEcaSoIFm0
T31. Minnesota Vikings - Jeff Gladney, CB
Hated this pick because I had a small hope he’d slide, but I much prefer Gladney in Minnesota to Missouri. He’s a bit on the small side, but feisty as all get out with the kind of click and close to really thrive in the Mike Zimmer scheme.
Joe’s Grade: A
Mike Zimmer on Jeff Gladney, via KFAN:
— Sean Borman (@SeanBormanNFL) April 24, 2020
“He’s a very competitive kid. Needs some technique work but he reminds me of a couple guys I’ve worked with [in the past].... He said he was waiting for us call.”#Vikings
32. Kansas City Chiefs - Clyde Edwards-Helaire
If you didn’t already know, I hate player comparisons. So it should speak to how much I like this Tiger that I have one. CEH has been my RB1 for months, and watching him play I couldn’t help but see bits and pieces of Brian Westbrook’s game in him. He’s a bit sturdier with a little less longspeed, but the receiving chops and phone booth quickness were very similar.
For those reasons, I hate this pick. He’s the one running back that really compliments Patrick Mahomes rather than just take the ball out of his hands. On the other side of it, I love this pick because Andy Reid could have grabbed a number of more valuable players:
- Denzel Mims
- Kristian Fulton
- Jaylon Johnson
- Laviska Shenault
- Michael Pittman
- Lloyd Cushenberry
- Akeem Davis-Gaither
You get the idea.
Joe’s Grade: B
Brett Veach told Andy Reid to watch some Clyde Edwards-Helaire film and told Reid you’ll see Brian Westbrook. Reid watched. Then got back to Veach and said he’s better than Westbrook.
— James Palmer (@JamesPalmerTV) April 24, 2020