According to Football Outsiders’ Playoff Odds report that runs a simulation of the NFL season 30,000 times, the Denver Broncos are now the favorite to land the top pick in the 2021 draft.
The simulation is based on FO’s algorithm that measures the quality of play of every team and is something I check every week of every NFL season. The Broncos made the playofffs 4% of the time, and landed the #1 overall pick 17.7% of the time. They had a top 5 draft pick 56.4% of the time. Right or wrong, it speaks to where these Broncos are.
With Jurrell Casey is out for the year, the Broncos are missing three of their most important players on defense as well as Courtland Sutton and Drew Lock. There’s no guarantee Phillip Lindsay will return for the Thursday night matchup with the 0-3 New York Jets.
Before camp I looked at the Most Valuable #Broncos— Joe Rowles (@JoRo_NFL) September 28, 2020
Heading into Thursday without
Lindsay's (19) ?
Bradley Chubb (6) working back from injury.
When it rains, it pours. https://t.co/GNpqa0ICRk
According to DNVR’s Andrew Mason, about 58.5 million dollars in cap space is on missing time with injury or on Injured Reserve. It’s roughly $20 million more than any other team the NFL.
Vic Fangio’s message to Broncos Country is that the team will continue to fight and do all they can to win every game, but we’re at a point where no amount of preparation can make up for the glaring issues on the roster.
Drew Lock struggled against the Titans before leaving the Steelers game. Jeff Driskel looked abysmal against Todd Bowles’ pressure packages. The interior offensive line has struggled as Lloyd Cushenberry acclimates to the NFL. Elijah Wilkinson’s overmatched in space against average or better edge rushers.
Defensively, there’s no making up for the loss of Von Miller. Bradley Chubb and Jeremiah Attaochu have performed admirably, but the former is still on his way back from a serious knee injury. The linebackers lack the lateral mobility to hold up to cange of direction routes or rubs over the middle. The defensive line will be made up of Shelby Harris, Mike Purcell, and guys playing their first significant professional snaps. Two rookies start at corner.
Only one team has started 0-3 and made the playoffs this century, but the 2018 Texans didn’t have two dates with Patrick Mahomes. Even if Drew Lock returns, it’s no guarantee wins are coming against a schedule with Kansas City, New Orleans, Buffalo, New England, Atlanta, and Las Vegas.
I don’t want the Broncos to tank, but if the Broncos drop their game on Thursday it may be time to talk about how the Broncos need to sell off any veteran pieces the rest of the league may be interested in. Purcell could draw some interest and carries no dead money on his deadl. Kareem Jackson is 32-years old and playing quality ball. So is Tim Patrick.
How many games will Denver win this season?
This poll is closed