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Wide Receiver Tim Patrick continues to shine for the Denver Broncos

With the Broncos losing several playmakers, Tim Patrick has stepped up and performed beyond expectations

Denver Broncos v Pittsburgh Steelers Photo by Joe Sargent/Getty Images

With both Jerry Jeudy and KJ Hamler missing significant time due to injury, the Denver offense has lost a significant portion of its firepower that it opened the season with. Tim Patrick is doing his part to help provide that spark in their absence.

Part of his benefit has been his ability to be a safety blanket for Teddy Bridgewater. The NFL’s biggest trend in recent years has been Next Gen Stats tracking, enabled by Zebra Technologies’ on-field tracking. They release all sorts of interesting analytical data that measure player performance.

This week, they released their statistics and tracking data across the league through Week 5. Tim Patrick is first in Catch Rate over Expected in the NFL by a significant margin. Patrick has a +15.8% Catch Rate over Expected, which ranks 1.7% over second-ranked Amari Cooper. While Next Gen Stats doesn’t give an exact definition on this statistic, FiveThirtyEight does.

CROE is given as the share of passes a receiver caught above or below what we would expect for an average player on the same team, with the same coach and QB, in a similar on-field situation.

This is just one of several metrics that illustrate how Tim Patrick has been performing this season. The 6’4 target ranks 5th in Defense-Adjusted Yards Above Replacement, or DYAR; 2nd in Defense-Adjusted Value Over Average, or DVOA; 18th in Effective Yards, and 4th in catch rate.

DYAR gives the value of the performance on plays where a receiver caught the ball, compared to replacement level, adjusted for situation and opponent and then translated into yardage. DVOA measures a team’s efficiency by comparing success on every single play to a league average based on situation and opponent. Essentially, it’s designed to measure success relative to league average. Effective Yards is essentially converting that DVOA figure into a yards per attempt figure, and catch rate measures a total percentage of passes completed to a receiver. Note: Catch rate doesn’t measure drops.

Patrick ranks ahead of several notable receivers in DYAR like Deandre Hopkins, Davante Adams, the aforementioned Amari Cooper, and many others. He ranks behind only Christian Kirk in DVOA, and only Kirk, Rondale Moore, and Sterling Shepard have him beat in catch rate.

Patrick should be a big part of Denver’s offense moving forward this season.

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