How do the Broncos re-match up with the Chargers?

Can the Denver Broncos beat Staley and Herbert in Los Angeles?

By Just_JoRo Dec 30, 2021, 5:00am MST

The Denver Broncos playoff hopes are dead, but that doesn’t mean there’s nothing to play for over the last two weeks of the year. The Broncos have now reached a point in the season where they’re fighting for a chance to avoid some rather dubious history. If Denver loses out they’ll finish with the fifth straight losing season, the longest streak since the 17-year stretch following the Broncos’ founding in 1960. A loss to the Los Angeles Chargers or Kansas City Chiefs would also break Fangio’s current tie with Lou Saban for most losses as head coach, which mean’s he’d own sole possession of the worst start in franchise history. So there’s more than pride at stake when the Broncos head to L.A. to spoil the Charger’s season.

To find out what’s ahead in the matchup, I reached out to Pro Football Focus and Guilty as Charged’s Arjun Menon for this week’s Cover 2 Broncos. What follows is a brief synopsis of the topics discussed.

Collabed with @tejfbanalytics to combine our QB rankings to show how much help each QB has gotten with how good they've been this season (per @PFF). Every rookie QB but Mac Jones in the bottom left with no help. Also, the entire 2020 QB class are in the top quadrants pic.twitter.com/eCF6GvgfVR
— Arjun Menon (@arjunmenon100) December 28, 2021

How will the NFL’s new Covid-19 policy impact the matchup?

The Texans upset the Covid-19 depleted Chargers last week. After they had to add Michael Davis to the reserve shortly before the game, their Covid list reached 14 players. Just a few of the other key pieces who missed the contest:

Joey Bosa
Corey Linsley
Austin Ekeler
Mike Williams

I don’t think we can talk about this week’s matchup without touching on the fact that the new Covid-19 policy could dramatically impact things.

Tuesday’s agreement between the NFL and NFL Players Association adopting the CDC’s new five-day rule (down from 10) for all positive cases (vaccinated and unvaccinated) if asymptomatic includes a few other terms that will alter the experience at team facilities, until the next change in the COVID protocols.

Chargers’ offense vs Broncos’ defense

X-factor: What can Fangio do to slow down Justin Herbert?
Austin Ekeler’s return from the Covid reserve is huge because LA’s backup backs have mostly struggled this season.
If Williams can’t play the receiving corps. will turn to rookie Josh Palmer and whoever returns from the Covid-19 list (Jalen Guyton, Andre Roberts)
The Broncos are sneaky good against tight ends this year, which could be huge in this game if Williams can’t play.
In the first matchup this year the Broncos’ front took turns abusing Senio Kelemete, but Matt Feiler’s returned to health since. Will the pass protection be better this time around?
Storm Norton vs. Malik Reed/Jonathon Cooper looks like a big matchup
Chargers are quite good in the redzone. The Broncos have been about league average because their pass defense is pretty good, but they really struggle to stop opposing runners.

Coverages used against Justin Herbert through week 16

Extra Points

Chargers’ personnel usage

62% out of 11 - run on 26% of plays (4.7 YPC)

27% out of 12 - run on 59% of plays (5 YPC)

35 plays out of 21 (37% run, 3.8 YPC)

32 plays out 13 ( 66% run, 2.4 YPC)

11 plays out of 22 (100% run, .8 YPC)

Chargers offense by DVOA

3rd Overall
3rd by passing
12th rushing
17th ranked in variance (average-ish slight lean inconsistent)

Ranks by Adjusted Line Yards

8th by ALY
Bad in power situations (22nd)
Stuffs on 15% of runs
12th in second level
11th in open field

Adjusted Line Yard ranks by direction

12th off left end
4th off left tackle
7th mid/guard
25th off right tackle
11th off right end

NOTABLE DVOA #s for Broncos D

27th in ALY - stuffs on just 12% of carries
Broncos run defense is extremely weak off LT (31st) and M/G (32nd). Opponents run off LT 14.5% of the time, and between the tackles on 56.5% of all carries.
Broncos rank 20th vs. WR1s, but they’re the best pass D vs. passes to the right in the league.

30th ranked redzone rush D. (Chargers are 6th best RZ O overall)

Chargers RUN CONCEPT USAGE and EPA

Chargers run concept usage through week 16

Chargers’ run concept effectiveness over expectation through week 16

Broncos’ offense vs Chargers’ defense

Broncos averaged 4 yards per play against one of the weakest defenses in the league. I went and looked at running backs with 100+ carries this season, 29 are averaging more than 4 yards per rush.
The Broncos scored one touchdown from the 1 yard line after Bradley Chubb picked off Derek Carr. They did not enter the redzone the rest of the game against a Raiders defense down 3 DBs that ranked among the worst defenses in the league by DVOA and EPA.
Despite 3 turnovers from LV O, they scored 13 points.
What is up with the Pat Shurmur offense?
With Lock in the offense cut out a bunch of horizontal leading routes and progressions. Curls gave Lock easy completions against cover 3, but hurt receivers’ opportunities for yards after completions.
Around midfield Shurmur tends to call a lot of 2-route shot plays, which puts Denver behind the sticks if it doesn’t hit.
Drew Lock had one of his better games despite really pedestrian total numbers overall. PFF ranked him as the 3rd best QB this past week. Bridgewater’s still in concussion protocol. Who is a scarier matchup for LA?

Staley’s defense has had personnel issues all year. Outside of the Bengals game with some fluky plays, they haven’t had a good performance by DVOA since the trade deadline. What’s going the problem?
Broncos need to find a way to effectively run the ball, or punish LA if they commit to stopping it.
The Broncos OL was a complete train wreck against the Raiders. Will LA be able to heat up Lock/Bridgewater?
How should Pat Shurmur attack this Chargers defense?

Extra Points

The Broncos play a little less 90% of their snaps out of 11 or 12 personnel. The next most used grouping is 13, but they dabble in 21, and 22 and could use it in this game.

Notable DVOA #s for Broncos O