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Teddy Bridgewater is an upgrade over Drew Lock in almost every way

Here’s a comparative look at their stats and ranks from 2020 to show why we should all be happy right now

NFL: New Orleans Saints at Carolina Panthers Bob Donnan-USA TODAY Sports

According to the data at Pro-football-reference.com Drew Lock was the least accurate starting QB in the league in 2020. His on-target percentage was 68.9 percent. That was a little worse than Dwayne Haskins at 69.6 percent. Teddy Bridgewater was the fourth most accurate starter. 35 QBs qualified as starters in 2020.

In terms of bad throw percentage, Lock was 35th of 35. Bridgewater was first. So if Teddy B ends up as our starting QB in 2021, we just went from the least accurate to arguably the most accurate QB in the league for the price of a 6th round pick.

Bridgewater had 4.2 percent of his passes dropped in 2020. Lock had 6.1 percent. So Lock’s receivers were not helping him, but Lock was also not helping himself by putting the ball where it was easy for his receivers to catch while Teddy B was.

Against the Blitz, Drew lock was one of the worst QBs in the league in 2020, although he did improve over the last month of the season. His passer rating against the blitz was 72.4 while Teddy B’s was 114.1. Follow this link and and this link to see that data.

I could spend the rest of this telling you the stats in which Teddy B was better than Lock in 2020, but let’s focus on the few areas where he wasn’t. Drew Lock was very aggressive in 2020. His IAY (intended air yards), which is the average distance the ball travelled beyond the LOS on all of his throws, was either 8.8 or 9.1 depending on the source. That was second among “starting” QBs either way - behind Tom Brady. Bridgewater came in at 7.3 in IAY which was 31st of 41. League worst was Alex Smith (which was where he normally ranked during his career - Captain Checkdown) at 5.0.

In terms of situational passing, Teddy B had a passer rating of 88.3 on 3rd down. Drew Lock had a passer rating of 69.9. Here is a comparative table of their passing stats by down in 2020.

QB Down Cmp Att Cmp% Yds TD 1D Int Rate Sk AY/A Run Att Run Yds Y/A TD 1D
Teddy B 1st 126 188 67.0 1377 6 60 6 85.8 11 6.53 16 59 3.7 0 3
Drew Lock 1st 103 172 59.9 1098 8 46 3 86.8 9 6.53 14 45 3.2 1 2
Teddy B 2nd 130 178 73.0 1393 5 63 2 100.2 10 7.88 14 79 5.6 2 4
Drew Lock 2nd 76 139 54.7 846 4 51 6 64.6 5 4.72 14 48 3.4 1 2
Teddy B 3rd 81 121 66.9 944 3 49 3 88.3 9 7.18 19 117 6.2 3 8
Drew Lock 3rd 69 122 56.6 866 3 44 5 69.9 5 5.75 15 67 4.5 1 9
Teddy B 4th 3 5 60.0 19 1 2 0 107.5 1 7.8 4 24 6 0 3
Drew Lock 4th 6 10 60.0 123 1 4 1 97.1 0 9.8 1 0 0 0 0

Drew Lock was better on first down but worse on other downs. Six of Teddy’s eleven interceptions were thrown on first down while six of Lock’s fifteen were thrown on second down. In terms of converting third downs, Lock and Bridgewater were fairly comparable with Teddy being slightly better. Lock converted on 53 of 142 third down attempts (44 throws and nine runs) - 37.3 percent while Bridgewater converted on 57 of 149 (49 throws and eight runs) - 38.3 percent.

On third and long (7 or more) you can see how both compared in 2020 below in this table.

QB Situation Cmp Att Cmp% Yds TD 1D Int Sk AY/A Run Att Run Yds TD 1D Total attempts total conversions conv%
Bridgewater 3rd and long 44 65 67.7% 565 2 21 2 6 10 76 1 2 81 23 28.4%
Lock 3rd and long 41 74 55.4% 647 1 22 3 3 6 26 0 1 83 23 27.7%

In thinking about this for an hour since the trade was announced, I see the move as similar to the move that Denver made when we got Case Keenum. Keenum was an upgrade over Paxton Lynch and Trevor Siemian, but he was not going to be the QB of the future. Teddy Bridgewater is not the QB of the future for the Broncos, but he is an upgrade over 2020 Drew Lock.

The question you have to ask yourself right now as do you think 2021 Teddy Bridgewater will be an upgrade over 2021 Drew Lock? Of course this could be a VERY different conversation tomorrow night if the Broncos draft a QB.