Do the Broncos have the worst QB room in the NFL?

By now, every corner of Broncos’ Country is well aware of the fact George Paton passed on Justin Fields and Mac Jones for Patrick Surtain II at ninth overall. The NFL world at large knows the Broncos are doing what they can to acquire Aaron Rodgers, which probably played a role in the Surtain acquisition.

What no one knows is if Paton’s efforts to trade for a Hall of Fame quarterback will be successful. I have it on good authority that Green Bay pulled out of a nearly completed deal last Thursday. While the drama is escalating by the day, it’s entirely possibly the Packers’ front office finds a way to hold out an olive branch to their 37-year-old franchise passer.

Where would that leave the Broncos’ QB room compared to the NFL at large? I took a look at every one, ranking them first to worst based on my confidence in their ability to lead their respective teams in 2021. The starting quarterback was front and center, but at every turn I tried to consider the depth behind him. It’s prudent for general managers to consider injuries and it reflects poorly on teams when they don’t.

Each depth chart comes from Ourlads with some minor tweaks where I saw necessary. The vast majority of the statistics below came from Sports Info Solutions, Football Outsiders, and Pro Football Reference. Obviously this is painfully subjective, so while I’m sure we won’t see eye-to-eye on every ranking, dear reader, I hope this is as informative to read as it was for me to research and write.

Aspiring MVPs and their caddies

1. Kansas City Chiefs

Patrick Mahomes, Chad Henne, Jordan Ta’amu, Anthony Gordon, Shane Buechele

• Mahomes is the best QB in football and it isn’t actually close.
• Henne’s thrown 121 passes since 2013, but went 28/38 with two touchdowns and no picks in a meaningless week 17 game last season.
• No other reserve has seen game action in the NFL. Ta’amu joined Kansas City after a stint in the XFL.

2. Buffalo Bills

Josh Allen, Mitch Trubisky, Jake Fromm, Davis Webb

• In every facet that matters, Allen set career highs in 2020. He became more accurate while cutting down on his sacks and interceptions. The big question is this: can he maintain it?
• Trubisky is a former first round bust and NVP who has thrown for 10,609 yards, 64 touchdowns, and 37 interceptions in his NFL career. Believe it or not, he made the Pro Bowl in 2018.
• Neither Fromm or Webb have seen real game action in the NFL to date.

3. Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Tom Brady, Blaine Gabbert, Kyle Trask, Ryan Griffin

• In his first year with the Bucs, 73% of Brady’s passes were on target and 77.2% of them were deemed catchable by SIS. His interception rate was at a five-year high while his sack rate tied a five-year low. He’s also going to turn 44 in August and had left knee surgery this offseason.
• Gabbert is a former first round bust who has thrown for 9,206 yards, 50 touchdowns, and 47 interceptions in his NFL career.
• Trask was a statuesque second round pick who brings good short accuracy and pre-snap decision-making with him into the NFL.
• Griffin has thrown four passes in the league and completed half of them for one first down. He’s probably the odd man out because of Trask’s draft pedigree.

4. Los Angeles Chargers

Justin Herbert, Chase Daniel, Easton Stick

• In his debut season, Herbert completed 66.6% of his passes for 4,336 yards, 31 touchdowns, and 10 interceptions. 70.6% of his passes were on target while 76.6% of them were deemed catchable by SIS. He ranked eighth by DYAR, 11th by DVOA, and 14th by QBR. He also rushed for 234 yards and five touchdowns with seven fumbles. All signs suggest he’s an ascending franchise quarterback.
• Daniel’s lived the kind of life every backup quarterback dreams of. He’s made almost $50 million dollars while throwing 261 passes over the last decade.
• Stick completed one pass in his NFL career for four yards.

5. Baltimore Ravens

Lamar Jackson, Trace McSorley, Tyler Huntley

• Per SIS charting, 70.2% of Jackson’s passes were on target in 2020. 76.9% of them were catchable. He finished the year ranked 22nd by DYAR, 21st by DVOA, and eighth by QBR. He also rushed for 1005 yards and seven touchdowns, averaging 6.3 yards per attempt.
• McSorley completed 30% of his 10 pass attempts with one touchdown pass since he entered the league in 2019.
• Huntley hasn’t thrown a pass in the NFL.

6. Seattle Seahawks

Russell Wilson, Geno Smith, Danny Etling, Alex McGough

• Across the first five games of the 2020 season, Wilson completed 72.78% of his passes for 1502 yards, 19 touchdowns, and three interceptions. Week six was a bit of a rude awakening when he doubled his season-long interception total against the Arizona Cardinals, and he never fully recovered with high variance play the rest of the way. He still finished with 40 touchdowns and 13 interceptions, but ranked 11th in DYAR and 13th in DVOA. He also rushed for 513 yards with two touchdowns and six fumbles.
• Smith’s thrown five passes across the last two seasons.
• Neither Etling or McGough have thrown a pass in the NFL.

7. Dallas Cowboys

Dak Prescott, Cooper Rush, Garett Gilbert, Ben DiNucci

• It’s highly unlikely he could maintain his blistering 2020 start, but Prescott was on pace for almost 6,000 passing yards, 29 touchdowns, and 13 interceptions before he landed on Injured Reserve.
• Gilbert and DiNucci got an opportunity to play after Prescott’s injury last year and finished a combined 44/81 for 462 yards, one touchdown, and one interception.
• Rush has thrown three passes for two yards since he joined the Cowboys in 2017. Odds are he’s a camp arm.

8. Cleveland Browns

Baker Mayfield, Case Keenum, Kyle Lauletta

• Mayfield threw 10 touchdowns and six picks across his first six starts of 2020. By the time the regular season came to a close he’d thrown 26 touchdowns with eight interceptions and finished as a top 10 passer by QBR. Advanced stats aren’t as kind to him, as he ranked 16th by DYAR and 17th in DVOA.
• Since Keenum left the Broncos, he’s completed 64.2% of his passes for 1753 yards, 11 touchdowns and five interceptions.
• Lauletta hasn’t seen the field since his stint with the Giants in 2018.

9. Arizona Cardinals

Kyler Murray, Colt McCoy, Chris Streveler, Cole McDonald

• Two years in and it looks like Murray may be the only starting caliber quarterback from the 2019 QB class. He finished 2020 as the 15th ranked QB by DYAR and QBR, as well as 18th by DVOA. He also rushed for 819 yards and 11 touchdowns with nine fumbles.
• The last time McCoy threw more than 66 passes in a season, The Big Bang Theory was the top rated sitcom on television.
• Streveler has thrown 16 more passes than McDonald in his NFL career. He’s thrown 16.

10. Atlanta Falcons

Matt Ryan, A.J. McCarron, Feleipe Franks

• Ryan’s on-target and catchable ball percentage has slowly declined across each of the last three seasons while his sack rate has exceeded 6% each year. He finished 10th by DYAR and 15th by DVOA in 2020. I’m curious to see if Arthur Smith’s offense gives him a similar jump to what we saw from Tannehill in Tennessee because if it doesn’t, the decision to pass on a QB at four is going to look rough.
• McCarron has thrown 55 passes and one interception since 2015. It’s probably for the best John Elway never traded for him.
• After a dislocated ankle cost him his starting job at Florida, Franks transferred to Arkansas and threw for 2,107 yards, 17 touchdowns, and four interceptions in 2020. He’s an athletic developmental backup.

11. Los Angeles Rams

Matthew Stafford, John Wolford, Bryce Perkins, Devlin “Duck” Hodges

• 70.8% of Stafford’s passes have been on target the last three years, per SIS charting. He finished last year ranked 14th by DYAR and DVOA. He has a rather lengthy injury history and underwent thumb surgery this offseason. If he can stay healthy, I expect him to make some serious noise in the McVay offense.
• Wolford joined the Rams after the AAF folded and made the active roster after a 2019 stint on the practice squad. He started the Rams’ playoff game over Goff before landing on the bench due to ineffectiveness. He’s thrown zero touchdowns and one pick in his NFL career.
• Hodges started six games in relief of Ben Roethlisberger in 2019, finishing with 1063 yards, five touchdowns and eight interceptions.
• Perkins hasn’t logged a snap in the NFL to date.

“The Guy” for now

12. Tennessee Titans

Ryan Tannehill, Logan Woodside, DeShone Kizer

• Across 18 regular season starts with Arthur Smith as his offensive coordinator, Tannehill completed 67.3% of his passes for 6561 yards, 55 touchdowns, and just 13 interceptions. He finished 2020 as the sixth best passer by QBR and DVOA, and fourth by QBR. I do wonder how he’ll look with Smith in Atlanta and a depleting receiving corps. around him. Before he joined the Titans, Tannehill only had a QBR above 49 once.
• Kizer is a former second round pick by the Browns who finds himself on his third team since 2017. He’s completed 53.7% of his passes in his career to date with 11 touchdowns and 24 interceptions.
• Woodside hasn’t thrown a pass in his NFL career.

13. Las Vegas Raiders

Derek Carr, Marcus Mariota, Nathan Peterman

• Carr finished 2020 as the 7th best QB by DYAR. The big question hanging over him is how his contract expires after 2022 and carries very little guarantees, making him a potential trade chip.
• Mariota took sacks on more than 10% of his dropbacks in 2018 and 2019, which helped lead to his benching for Ryan Tannehill during the Broncos game in 2019. We forget that because he looked competent in relief of Carr last season.
• Peterman has three touchdowns to 12 picks across his first three seasons in the NFL.

14. Minnesota Vikings

Kirk Cousins, Kellen Mond, Jake Browning, Nate Stanley

• There may not be a quarterback in the NFL with a bigger gap between his play and the narrative about him than Cousins. He was a top ten passer by DYAR and DVOA a season ago.
• Mond enters the league with plenty of experience after 44 starts at Texas A&M, but questions about his ball placement, decision-making, and pocket management will need suitable answers if he’s to become more than a backup in the NFL.
• Neither Browning or Stanely have seen the field in their short careers.

15. San Francisco 49ers

Jimmy Garoppolo, Trey Lance, Josh Rosen, Josh Johnson, Nate Sudfeld

• At some point availability becomes something a team has to plan around. Garoppolo’s played in 25 of 51 potential games since the start of 2018, missing time due to a torn ACL and severe high ankle sprain. When he was healthy in 2019, he finished as the 11th best passer by DYAR and DVOA.
• Lance threw 318 passes during his time with North Dakota State including all of 30 last season, and he’s jumping from the FCS to the NFL. His pro-readiness is a complete unknown, with plenty of arguments on both sides of the fence.
• Rosen is a former first round bust who has bounced from the Cardinals to the Dolphins to the Bucs to the 49ers since 2018. He hasn’t thrown a pass since 2019.
• Johnson fell out of the league after 2014 before he joined the Washington Football Team and threw four touchdowns to three picks across four games in 2018.
• Sudfeld was a tank commander in Philly’s season finale a year ago.

16. New England Patriots

Cam Newton, Mac Jones, Jarrett Stidham

• Newton completed 65.8% of his passes for 2,657 yards, eight touchdowns, and 10 interceptions in 2020. 66.8% of his passes were on target by SIS charting, while 75.5% were deemed catchable. He took a sack on 7.3% of his dropbacks. He also rushed for 592 yards and 12 touchdowns with four fumbles.
• Jones was drafted 15th overall after starting 17 games at Alabama. He wins with his eyes, anticipation, and playing within the structure of his offense. It’s going to be fascinating to watch him try to live up to the Tom Brady comparisons.
• Stidham was the fourth round pick Foxboro faithful believed in until Bill Belichick found a starting caliber quarterback. 52.3% of his 2020 passes were on target and he took a sac on 7.8% of his dropbacks.

The jury’s out

17. Jacksonville Jaguars

Trevor Lawrence, Gardner Minshew, C.J. Beathard, Jake Luton

• Most knew Lawrence would go first overall since his first year with the Clemson Tigers. He combines very good ball placement, arm talent, and strength with underrated mobility. I expect him to push for OROY from the jump.
• Minshew is one of the better backup QBs in the league and looks like he’s headed for a Ryan Fitzpatrick type of career right now. 67.5% of his career passes have been deemed “on target” by SIS and 75.4% were catchable. He’s thrown an interception on just 1.4% of his passes.
• Beathard is a former Kyle Shanahan draft pick who has thrown 18 touchdowns to 13 picks across his 19 games in the NFL. He threw zero picks with career bests in completion percentage, TD percentage, and yards per attempt in 2020.
• Luton was a tank commander during his rookie season and the numbers reflect it. He didn’t complete 55% of his passes and threw three times as many picks as touchdowns.

18. Chicago Bears

Justin Fields, Andy Dalton, Nick Foles,

• With Matt Nagy and Ryan Pace on perhaps the hottest seats in the NFL, it’s a matter of when and not if Fields finds his way to the field. He’ll need to do a better job throwing with anticipation, but his 4.4 speed and ball placement should give new life to the Bears’ offense.
• 69.4% of Dalton’s passes were on target last year, so he could serve as a capable stopgap if necessary.
• Over the last two years, Foles has lost a starting job to both Gardner Minshew and Mitch Trubisky. That original four-year, $88 million deal looks indefensible at this point.

19. Cincinnati Bengals

Joe Burrow, Brandon Allen, Kyle Shurmur, Collin Hill

• Before his injury, Burrow was on pace for roughly 4,300 yards, 21 touchdowns, eight interceptions, and 51 sacks. He completed 65.3% of his passes and 70.3% of them were deemed “on target.”
• Allen’s completion percentage made a massive jump with the Bengals after a stint where he completed 46.4% of his passes with the Broncos.
• Hill will battle Pat’s son for QB3 duties. Both are completely untested in the NFL.

20. New Orleans Saints

Jameis Winston, Taysom Hill, Ian Book, Trevor Siemian

• The last time Winston was a starting quarterback, he completed 60.7% of his passes for 5109 yards, 33 touchdowns, and 30 interceptions. He finished 2019 as the 23rd ranked quarterback by DYAR, 24th by DVOA, and 16th by QBR. 65.6% of his passes were deemed on target by SIS, while 70.1% were catchable. He took a sack on 6.6% of his dropbacks. He also rushed for 250 yards and one touchdown with 11 fumbles.
• Hill completed 72.7% of his attempts for 928 yards, four touchdowns, and two picks in 2020. 71.9% of his throws were on target per SIS charting and 82.6% were deemed catchable. He took a sack on 9% of his dropbacks. He also rushed for 457 yards and eight touchdowns. He fumbled nine times.
• Book joined the Saints as a fourth round draft pick who started 35 games for Notre Dame. He’s a two-time team captain who brings 4.6 speed in a 6’ frame and can make things happen out of structure in the quick game. Still, he does need to improve against pressure. I’ll admit I’m curious to see what Sean Payton can do with him in time.
• Siemian’s thrown six passes since he left the Broncos in 2017. Odds are he’s a camp arm due to Book’s draft pedigree.

21. Miami Dolphins

Tua Tagovailoa, Jacoby Brissett, Jake Rudock, Reid Sinnett

• Tagovailoa had a tumultuous rookie season getting yo-yoed for Ryan Fitzpatrick. His traditional box score stats aren’t too shabby, but 66.9% of his passes were considered on target by SIS. That needs to improve if he’s going to succeed as a point guard type of QB.
• Brissett has two seasons where he started 15 games. In 2019, 68.9% of his passes were on target while 75.8% of them were deemed catchable by SIS. He also rushed for 228 yards and four touchdowns.
• Rudock’s thrown five passes and one interception in his NFL career.
• Sinnett is probably fighting Rudock for a roster spot.

22. New York Jets

Zach Wilson, James Morgan, Mike White

• This ranking completely depends on Wilson living up to the promise Joe Douglas saw in him, as neither Morgan or White have thrown an NFL pass.

23. Carolina Panthers

Sam Darnold, P.J. Walker, Will Grier, Tommy Stevens

• Darnold was the 35th ranked QB by DYAR, 33rd by DVOA, and 34th by QBR in 2020. Matt Rhule and the Panthers are counting on him making a jump under Joe Brady after years with Adam Gase.
• Walker is a former XFL star who threw for one touchdown and five picks in four games last year.
• Grier was the 100th pick in the 2019 draft, he has thrown four picks and zero touchdowns since he entered the NFL.
• Stevens has four rush attempts in the league, but he’s never thrown a pass.

24. Indianapolis Colts

Carson Wentz, Jacob Eason, Sam Ehlinger, Jalen Morton

• Out of all the quarterbacks who threw at least 200 passes in 2020, Wentz was arguably the least efficient. He ranked dead last in DYAR, 34th by DVOA, and 29th by QBR. 60.9% of his passes were considered on target while 66.4% were considered catchable by SIS. He threw a pick on 3.4% of his attempts and took a sack on almost 10% of his dropbacks. The Colts gave Philly a 2021 third-round draft pick and a conditional 2022 second-round pick that could turn into a first-rounder to find out if his disastrous season was a one-off or the new normal.
• No other quarterback on the Colts’ roster has thrown a pass in the NFL.

25. Green Bay Packers

Aaron Rodgers (?), Jordan Love

• I do not expect Rodgers to play another snap for the Packers and this ranking reflects that. If he does, the Packers would jump into the top five.
• Love was a first round pick in 2020 that I never believed in. He’s yet to throw an NFL pass. Football Outsiders’ QBBase gave him a 64% chance to bust before the draft last year.

Purgatory, whether they know it or not

26. Washington Football Team

Ryan Fitzpatrick, Taylor Heinicke, Kyle Allen, Steven Montez

• You wouldn’t guess it based on the narrative surrounding him, but Fitzpatrick only threw 13 touchdowns in 2020. He finished the year ranked 21st in DYAR, but 16th in DVOA, and sixth (!!!!) in QBR. 70.8% of his passes were on target and 76% of them were deemed catchable by SIS.
• Heinicke only started one game last year and he made it count, throwing for 303 yards, one touchdown, and a pick in Washington’s wildcard loss to Tom Brady’s Buccaneers.
• Allen completed 69% of his passes for 610 yards, four touchdowns, and a pick before his 2020 came to a painful end in November.
• Montez hasn’t thrown an NFL pass after going undrafted out of Colorado.

27. Denver Broncos

Drew Lock, Teddy Bridgewater, Brett Rypien

• Lock finished 2020 ranked 30th by DYAR and QBR, as well as 28th by DVOA. 65.8% of his career passes were on target per SIS charting, while 71.1% of them were deemed catchable. He led the NFL in interceptions during his second season.
• Bridgewater finished 2020 ranked 18th by DYAR and QBR, as well as 19th by DVOA. Since 2018 73.6% of his passes were considered on target by SIS and in each season more than 73% of his passes were deemed catchable. He’s thrown an interception on 2% of his targets across that span.
• 75% of Rypien’s career passes were considered on target by SIS, but he’s thrown an interception on 10% of them.
• This ranking does not account for a potential Aaron Rodgers trade. If that were to happen, the Broncos would finish in the top 5. Where depends on who else remains to back up the Hall of Famer.

28. Pittsburgh Steelers

Ben Roethlisberger, Mason Rudolph, Joshua Dobbs, Dwayne Haskins

• There’s little question Roethlisberger’s arm was limiting the Steelers’ offense last season and the future Hall of Famer’s average throw depth reached a career low 6.9 yards. He finished the year ranked 17th in DYAR, 20th in DVOA, and 23rd by QBR. The end is near.
• Rudolph’s completed 61.7% of his NFL passes for 2089 yards, 15 touchdowns, and 10 interceptions.
• Haskins is a former first round bust who is trying to find his footing in Pittsburgh. Thus far, 64% of his career passes have been on target.
• Dobbs has thrown 17 passes in the NFL.

29. New York Giants

Daniel Jones, Mike Glennon, Clayton Thorson, Joe Webb

• As poor as Drew Lock’s numbers look from a season ago, he finished with a better DYAR and DVOA than Jones. Only 64.7% of Jones’ passes were on target and he fumbled 12 times.
• Glennon drove a tank in Jacksonville last year and has four seasons where he’s attempted 140+ passes since 2013. Each of these teams finished with a losing record, but he’s thrown 43 touchdowns to 25 interceptions in his career.
• Webb hasn’t thrown more than seven attempts in a season since 2011.
• Thorson’s never attempted an NFL pass.

30. Detroit Lions

Jared Goff, Tim Boyle, David Blough

• Sean McVay was so desperate to dump Goff that the Rams gave up multiple first round picks in a deal to swap him for Matthew Stafford. The former first round pick finished 2020 as the 20th best QB by DYAR and hasn’t thrown for less than 20 touchdowns in a season since his rookie year. He’s made the Pro Bowl twice.
• Boyle has played in 11 games in his NFL career and has -1 total yards to show for it. That isn’t a typo.
• Blough started five games his rookie season and completed 54% of his passes for 984 yards, four touchdowns, and six picks. 58% of his targets were deemed “on target” by Sports Info Solutions.

Chasing the bottom

31. Houston Texans

Deshaun Watson (?), Tyrod Taylor, Ryan Finley, Davis Mills

• Stranger things have happened, but I do not expect Watson to play another snap for the Texans. This ranking reflects that. If the allegations against him do not lead to a suspension and he returns to Houston, the Texans would jump into the top five.
• Taylor lost his starting job with the Chargers after one start because a team doctor punctured his lung. Outside of that, he hasn’t started a game since September 20th, 2018.
• Finley’s completed 48.7% of his passes in his NFL career.
• Mills once lost a QB competition to K.J. Costello. His career highlight at Stanford came in 2019 when he threw for 504 yards against Washington State.

32. Philadelphia Eagles

Jalen Hurts, Joe Flacco, Jamie Newman

• Hurts completed 52% of his passes for 1061 yards, six touchdowns, and four picks last year. 68.2% of his passes were deemed catchable, while 58.8% of them were on target.
• Flacco is proof that draft pedigree and a Super Bowl ring can buy you nine lives as a washed-up “mentor.”
• Newman completed 60.5% of his passes across 16 starts Wake Forest, transferred to Georgia and opted out before the 2020 season. He enters the NFL with questions about his ball placement and pocket management.

Your Broncos’ News

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The Broncos’ Shamar Stephen and Kyle Fuller deals look savvy. Ronald Darby, less so.

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After Carolina selected Horn, Chicago made the same offer to Denver at 9 — but the Broncos also elected to pick a corner, Alabama’s Patrick Surtain II. This played out for two more picks as the Eagles traded up to select DeVonta Smith at 10 and the Cowboys took linebacker Micah Parsons at 12.

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He wants the keys to the castle. The Broncos can provide.

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If you love Lock, then going to the Packers should be something you root for. Matt LaFleur is a Shanahan disciple and would run an offense that Lock could thrive in. Anyone who watches film knows that Lock can be at least a solid starter if the system is right around him. The Broncos know that, and the Packers know that. It’s one of the main reasons why Lock may be the key to get Rodgers to Denver.

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NFL News

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“I truly believe Aaron wants to come back to Green Bay, but he doesn’t want to do it on a lame-duck contract which, even though there’s three years on his contract if you really look at the terms of it, it pretty much sets up for a clean break at the end of the 2021 season for the Packers himself considering that Jordan Love is on a rookie salary,” Kuhn said. “So I think that he wants more insurance that he’s going to be a long-term starting quarterback option for the Green Bay Packers and that I believe is something that would intrigue him to make amends with the team and come back to this season.”

Frank Reich: I don’t think drafting another player sent Carson Wentz in a tailspin - ProFootballTalk

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