The desert and the oasis of quarterback play in the 32-team era.

There have now been 19 NFL seasons with 32 teams. Some call this the 32-team era. I defined the “quarterback desert” as a bottom-four finish in team passer rating. I used passer rating because it has existed for the entirety of this era (QBR has not), and it’s the best transparent method for analyzing quarterback play.

The Broncos have had three such finishes during the 32-team era, but all three have been recent - 2015, 2017 and 2020. Here is a full listing of the desert-wandering teams during this era by year:

Only two franchises have not spent a single year in the desert during this era - the Patriots and the Chargers. The teams that have spent the most years in the desert are the Browns (eight seasons) and the Jets (seven seasons).

The full quantification is shown below.

Ten teams have only spent one season in the desert while the Broncos are one of 11 who have spent three or more seasons in the desert. I was surprised that the Chiefs have only spent one season in the desert, but I had forgotten that they got some good QB play out of Trent Green and Alex Smith.

If you are one of those positive people, here is a list of the teams that have been in the “oasis” each year during this era (a top-4 finish in team passer rating).

The Broncos have spent three seasons in the oasis - 2012 through 2014 - all because of Peyton Manning. Manning’s team had an oasis year in eight of the 13 seasons he played during this era.

Twenty-six teams have spent at least one year in the oasis. The Saints have had the most with nine, but five other teams have five or more seasons of elite QB play (oasis years).

Twelve teams have three or more oasis seasons. The Broncos are the only NFL franchise with three or more desert AND oasis years during the 32-team era.

I’ll leave it for you as homework to find the six franchises that have zero seasons of elite QB play in the 32-team era.

It should surprise absolutely no one that the teams with the fewest years in the desert and the most years in the oasis are the teams with stable and elite players at quarterback. The Saints and the Patriots have had the same quarterback for almost every season during this era. The Chargers and Packers are not far behind. The only teams that have had a fair amount of turnover at QB during this era and have had five or more oasis years are the Colts and the Chiefs. The Colts moved from one first overall pick at QB to another.

The Chiefs got two of their five oasis years in the very beginning of this era (2002 and 2003) with Trent Green and got the other three recently from Patrick Mahomes. The one season that the Chiefs spent in the desert was 2012 with Matt Cassel and Brady Quinn as their starting quarterbacks.

The teams that have been in the oasis for three straight years are the Broncos, Colts, Saints, Chargers, Patriots and Packers. When do you think the Broncos will have another three straight years of great QB play?