For better or worse, the head coach is the one who gets the credit or blame for choosing when and where to go for it on 4th down. Very few NFL coaches buck the traditional wisdom that says you punt if you aren’t in range to kick a field goal. But what about the late in the half or late in the game situations when the clock changes the calculus?
Vic Fangio has received much criticism over the past two seasons for his decisions on 4th down. The hope here is to determine whether or not that criticism has been warranted. As always, I’m gonna bring the data and attempt to draw some conclusions from it.
In this work we’ll dive into how Fangio has done and how that compares to other NFL head coaches. Now, Fangio may not have the final call on what to do on 4th down, but I would guess that he does, much like most, if not all NFL head coaches do. Over the course of his two seasons as head coach, Fangio has had to make a decision on 241 4th downs. We are going to use expected points, EP, to evaluate how “good” or “bad” the outcome of his decisions was over the past two seasons.
For a long discussion of EP follow this link. What it essentially is is how many points you would be expected to score from any point on the field on a given play based upon every play run from that point on the field in NFL history. I will focus on the difference between EPB (expected points before the play) and EPA (expected points after). This is a relatively simple analytical method to determine if the “right” decision was made - based on the outcome.
For example the expected points on any play run from your own one yard line is pretty close to six since the number of plays that have scored a touchdown from the one yard is significantly higher than the number of plays that have scored a touchdown from the plus 45.
If you sum the difference over all of the 241 4th downs where Fangio has had to make the decision, you come up with a total value of 119.6. That’s useless without context though. So how does this compare to other franchises over the past two seasons? See the table below.
So overall the Broncos, and Fangio, are 8th in terms of summed EP difference on 4th down during the past two seasons. That’s interesting, but there are some other tidbits that can be pulled from this data set.
We also have to adjust this for a per play basis. The table with summed EP DIF/play is shown below.
|Tm||Plays||Summed EP DIF||DIF/Play|
Using EP difference per 4th down play, Fangio drops to twelfth. The Ravens clearly show up as an outlier here with a gap of 0.13 expected points per play between them and the Seahawks over the past two seasons. The Jets, Chargers and Rams are all clustered together at the bottom of the heap.
At first glance it might seem simple to determine whether the decision to go for it on fourth down was the “correct” one (if you convert), but what about situations like 4th and 1 from just outside of field goal range. How do you evaluate the choice to punt their? Expected points tries to answer that, but I’m going to use a more nuanced (less objective) method to answer this, particularly in regards to the instances where Fangio has had to make that decision.
The 241 total fourth down situations over the past two seasons means that the Broncos have had the seventh most 4th downs over the past two years. The Bengals have had the most with 261 while the Chiefs have had the fewest with 184. Not surprisingly the Ravens are a close second at 189.
The Ravens have also been the best team in the league when they actually run a play on 4th down over the past two years (only looking at regular season - I did not bring playoff 4th downs into the study). The table below just looks at passing and rushing plays on 4th down over the past two seasons - it removes the times when a coach chose to punt or try a FG.
Below is the instances over the past two season where teams have gone for it on 4th down.
I have included turning it over on downs as a turnover (which the NFL still does not count as a turnover by the offense for some strange reason). That is the “Real TO%” column. You can see that Denver is in the middle of the pack in terms of Real TO% and first down (and TD) percentage. I did not look deeply into these interceptions to see how many were on end-of-game or end-of-half Hail-Mary passes. I am one of those stat folks who think that those interceptions should not be counted for QBs since are huge percentage of those passes are picked off.
You’ll note that Denver is on the low end in terms of conversions on 4th down, but we are also on the low end in terms of times that we have gone for it on 4th down during the past two years - 29 attempts. The Broncos are tied for the eighth fewest 4th down attempts and have exactly half the number of the Eagles who had the most over the past two seasons.
With only 29 plays we can look at them all and look for trends. Is Fangio too conservative? Would you have made the same decision(s)? How many of those were “no-brainer” decisions with the team down late in the game?
|11/17/2019||Broncos||Vikings||2||14:13||4||1||MIN 7||10-0||Courtland Sutton left end for 1 yard (tackle by Andrew Sendejo)||1||3.0||5.8||2.8|
|9/14/2020||Broncos||Titans||2||3:25||4||1||OTI 1||7-7||Drew Lock pass complete short middle to Jake Butt for no gain (tackle by Jeffery Simmons)||0||3.6||0.4||-3.2|
|1/3/2021||Broncos||Raiders||2||6:23||4||1||RAI 38||10-10||Drew Lock pass incomplete short left intended for Tyrie Cleveland (defended by Lamarcus Joyner)||0||0.7||-1.5||-2.2|
|12/15/2019||Broncos||Chiefs||2||3:46||4||1||DEN 48||0-12||Drew Lock pass complete deep left to Noah Fant for 43 yards (tackle by Charvarius Ward)||43||-0.2||5.1||5.3|
|10/25/2020||Broncos||Chiefs||3||5:56||4||5||KAN 45||9-27||Drew Lock pass complete short left to KJ Hamler for 3 yards (tackle by Charvarius Ward and Bashaud Breeland). KJ Hamler fumbles, ball out of bounds at KC-42 (forced by Bashaud Breeland)||3||0.3||-1.7||-2.0|
|11/22/2020||Broncos||Dolphins||3||9:30||4||1||MIA 14||13-10||Melvin Gordon up the middle for no gain (tackle by Raekwon Davis and Elandon Roberts)||0||2.7||0.3||-2.4|
|12/22/2019||Broncos||Lions||3||1:01||4||1||DEN 49||13-17||Andrew Beck pass complete short right to Phillip Lindsay for 6 yards (tackle by Trey Flowers)||6||-0.1||2.6||2.7|
|9/22/2019||Broncos||Packers||3||6:05||4||1||GNB 1||16-24||Phillip Lindsay left guard for 1 yard, touchdown||1||3.6||7.0||3.5|
|12/15/2019||Broncos||Chiefs||4||9:40||4||14||KAN 42||3-23||Drew Lock pass incomplete short right intended for DaeSean Hamilton||0||0.5||-1.7||-2.2|
|12/15/2019||Broncos||Chiefs||4||4:52||4||10||KAN 33||3-23||Drew Lock pass incomplete short right intended for DaeSean Hamilton||0||1.2||-1.1||-2.3|
|9/15/2019||Broncos||Bears||4||2:25||4||10||CHI 43||6-13||Joe Flacco pass complete short right to Courtland Sutton for 10 yards (tackle by Kyle Fuller)||10||0.4||3.4||3.0|
|9/15/2019||Broncos||Bears||4||1:02||4||3||CHI 12||6-13||Joe Flacco pass complete short right to Courtland Sutton for 5 yards (tackle by Kyle Fuller)||5||2.7||5.6||2.9|
|9/15/2019||Broncos||Bears||4||8:47||4||2||CHI 45||6-13||Joe Flacco pass complete short left to Phillip Lindsay for 4 yards (tackle by Roquan Smith)||4||0.3||2.9||2.6|
|12/27/2020||Broncos||Chargers||4||8:19||4||7||DEN 46||6-16||Drew Lock pass complete short middle to Tim Patrick for 27 yards (tackle by Nasir Adderley and Alohi Gilman)||27||-0.3||3.8||4.1|
|10/17/2019||Broncos||Chiefs||4||13:44||4||1||DEN 34||6-27||Phillip Lindsay left end for 3 yards (tackle by Tanoh Kpassagnon)||3||-1.1||1.4||2.5|
|10/17/2019||Broncos||Chiefs||4||8:14||4||6||KAN 49||6-27||Joe Flacco pass incomplete short middle intended for DaeSean Hamilton (defended by Rashad Fenton)||0||0.0||-2.2||-2.2|
|9/27/2020||Broncos||Buccaneers||4||3:56||4||1||TAM 13||10-28||Brett Rypien pass short middle intended for Jerry Jeudy is intercepted by Mike Edwards at TB-0 and returned for 30 yards||0||2.7||-0.9||-3.6|
|11/15/2020||Broncos||Raiders||4||6:15||4||7||RAI 7||12-30||Drew Lock pass complete short middle to DaeSean Hamilton for 7 yards, touchdown||7||3.0||7.0||4.0|
|11/8/2020||Broncos||Falcons||4||7:33||4||6||ATL 35||13-34||Drew Lock pass incomplete deep right intended for KJ Hamler (defended by Ricardo Allen)||0||1.0||-1.3||-2.2|
|12/27/2020||Broncos||Chargers||4||0:20||4||10||DEN 25||16-19||Drew Lock pass complete deep middle to DaeSean Hamilton for 25 yards (tackle by Kenneth Murray)||25||-1.7||2.3||4.0|
|12/6/2020||Broncos||Chiefs||4||0:33||4||5||DEN 30||16-22||Drew Lock pass deep right intended for Jerry Jeudy is intercepted by Tyrann Mathieu at DEN-49 and returned for no gain||0||-1.4||-2.3||-1.0|
|9/22/2019||Broncos||Packers||4||2:23||4||17||DEN 49||16-27||Joe Flacco sacked by Preston Smith for -6 yards||-6||-0.1||-2.7||-2.6|
|10/25/2020||Broncos||Chiefs||4||1:42||4||10||KAN 49||16-43||Drew Lock pass incomplete deep left intended for Tyrie Cleveland||0||0.0||-2.2||-2.2|
|11/22/2020||Broncos||Dolphins||4||0:04||4||14||DEN 16||20-13||Drew Lock pass complete deep right to Tim Patrick for 61 yards (tackle by Xavien Howard)||61||-2.4||4.0||6.4|
|9/20/2020||Broncos||Steelers||4||1:55||4||2||PIT 15||21-26||Jeff Driskel sacked by Terrell Edmunds for -11 yards||-11||2.6||-0.7||-3.2|
|11/17/2019||Broncos||Vikings||4||0:33||4||1||MIN 15||23-27||Brandon Allen right end for 11 yards (tackle by Jayron Kearse)||11||2.6||6.3||3.7|
|11/17/2019||Broncos||Vikings||4||3:27||4||6||MIN 45||23-27||Brandon Allen pass complete short middle to Noah Fant for 11 yards (tackle by Anthony Barr)||11||0.3||3.3||3.0|
|11/17/2019||Broncos||Vikings||4||1:57||4||6||MIN 30||23-27||Brandon Allen pass complete short middle to Tim Patrick for 6 yards (tackle by Mike Hughes)||6||1.4||4.0||2.5|
|11/8/2020||Broncos||Falcons||4||0:27||4||10||DEN 20||27-34||Lloyd Cushenberry aborted snap, recovered by DaeSean Hamilton at DEN-19 Penalty on DEN: Illegal Shift (Declined)||0||-2.0||-4.3||-2.3|
We find that of the 29 4th down plays only eight were not in the fourth quarter of the game. Of those eight, the Broncos were only leading or tied in three of those attempts.
This link allows you to see every 4th down pass or rush over the past two seasons that occurred in the first, second, or third quarter of the game. You’ll note that with only eight, Denver has the second fewest “risky” decisions to go for it on 4th down. Only the Lions with seven have fewer. More of this later.
Chronologically the first of our 29 attempts was in 2019 against the Vikings. Leading 10-0 the Broncos had the ball on the MIN 7 at the beginning of the second quarter facing a 4th and 1. The Broncos would convert on an end-around to Courtland Sutton. The gamble paid off as the Broncos would score a touchdown to go up 17-0. The seventeen point lead would be stretched to 20 and that would be the second largest lead that the Broncos have had at any point during Fangio’s tenure as head coach. The Broncos would go into halftime with a 20 point lead. We will not discuss what happened in the second half of that game. It’s hard to lead a game by more than 20 when your offense averages less than 20 points per game.
The second attempt was another 4th and 1 situation, this time in the 3rd quarter against the Dolphins leading 13-10 with 9:30 left in the quarter in 2020. This would be another situation where the Broncos had the ball deep in the opponent’s territory (MIA 14) and chose to go for it instead of taking the almost automatic field goal (McManus is 50/53 from 30-39 during his career). This time the Broncos would run Melvin Gordon up the middle and he would be stopped for no gain. Hindsight says that this was a bad choice, but the Broncos running game was working really well for most of the game so Fangio made the right call here - expecting his offense to be able to gain one yard on 4th and 1. The Broncos would finish this game with 189 yards rushing.
More coaches are going for it on 4th and 1 since the analytics tell you that’s the “right” choice at almost any point on the field. In 2020 teams converted on 66 percent of their regular season tries on 4th and 1. Unfortunately, the Broncos were the only team in 2020 to NOT convert a 4th and 1 situation. We had seven 4th and 1’s in 2020 and went for it on four of them (punting on three). Those four plays (three passes and one run) resulted in no conversions and one interception. Two teams, Atlanta and Tennessee did not punt on 4th and 1 at all in 2020. The Falcons and Dolphins were the most successful team on 4th and 1 in 2020 converting on all of their attempts while the Raiders went for it the most on 4th and 1 - 16 times - converting on 13 of those.
The third attempt was in the final game of the 2020 season against the Raiders. It was another 4th and 1. This time in the second quarter tied at 10 with 6:23 left to play and from the Raider 38 yard line. This would have been a 53-yard FG attempt, but rather than attempts a long-ish FG, Fangio chose to let the offense try and gain one yard. This would fail as Drew Lock would throw incomplete to Tyrie Cleveland.
If you look at all of our 4th down attempts that were not in the fourth quarter, you find that all but one were on 4th and 1. That lone attempt with more yards needed was against the Chiefs last season down 27-9 on 4th and 5 from the KC 45. This was too long for a FG attempt, but a FG attempt doesn’t help much when you are down by 18 in the 3rd quarter against the best offense in the league. This play would also fail after Lock would complete a pass to KJ Hamler that would gain only three yards before two KC defenders would strip the ball which would be fumbled out of bounds.
The Broncos have also chosen to punt twelve times on 4th and 1 over the past two seasons with three of those punts coming from midfield and one coming in plus territory (punting on 4th and 1 from the Jacksonville 39 with 11 minutes left in the first quarter of a scoreless game).
There have been 459 punts on 4th and 1 over the past two seasons and the Broncos have the second most in the league with twelve. Only the Steelers have more with sixteen. For comparison, the Titans have only punted twice on 4th and 1 and the Chiefs, Panthers, Packers and Eagles have only punted three times on 4th and 1. Of those punts only 43 happened at midfield (team 47 or to opponent 47 is what I call “midfield”) or in plus territory. The Broncos have the most of any team with 4 and only three other teams have more than one - the Seahawks (3), the Steelers and Saints (2).
There have only been nineteen total punts on 4th and 1 in plus territory over the past two seasons and the Broncos are the only team with two. Those two punts were the one from the JAX 39 that I mentioned earlier and a punt from the CHI 49 with a 3-0 lead and 6:10 left to play in the first quarter. Many NFL coaches are now going for it on 4th and 1 in plus territory in some cases even when they are in field goal range. More on this later.
The rest of the times that the Broncos have gone for it on 4th down over the past two seasons were “no-brainer” choices with the team down either by large sums in the 4th or by one score with very little time left in the game. In either case almost all coaches go for it in those situations.
My summation is that Vic Fangio has been very risk averse when choosing to go for it on fourth down. However, he has had good reason to be risk averse given how poorly our offense has fared during his tenure.
For comparison let’s look at the Chiefs, Ravens, Eagles and Browns offenses over the same time frame. The Chiefs and Ravens have been really good on fourth down, but the Ravens have gone for it almost twice as much as the Chiefs. The Eagles and Browns have both not been very good and both have gone for it much more often than the Broncos or Chiefs.
|12/1/2019||Chiefs||Raiders||1||5:24||4||1||RAI 15||7-0||Darrel Williams left guard for no gain (tackle by Johnathan Hankins)||0||2.59||0.22||-2.37|
|9/10/2020||Chiefs||Texans||1||3:00||4||1||KAN 34||0-7||Anthony Sherman left guard for 2 yards (tackle by J.J. Watt)||2||-1.11||1.33||2.44|
|11/22/2020||Chiefs||Raiders||1||6:52||4||1||RAI 35||0-7||Patrick Mahomes pass complete short right to Tyreek Hill for 6 yards (tackle by Nevin Lawson)||6||1||3.64||2.64|
|11/3/2019||Chiefs||Vikings||2||6:13||4||1||MIN 7||7-6||Damien Williams left end for 2 yards (tackle by Anthony Barr)||2||3.01||6.06||3.05|
|10/17/2019||Chiefs||Broncos||2||10:00||4||1||DEN 5||6-10||Patrick Mahomes up the middle for 2 yards (tackle by Derek Wolfe)||2||3.03||6.51||3.48|
|10/6/2019||Chiefs||Colts||2||3:06||4||1||KAN 47||10-10||Anthony Sherman up the middle for 2 yards (tackle by Justin Houston)||2||-0.26||2.19||2.45|
|12/27/2020||Chiefs||Falcons||2||8:54||4||1||ATL 26||0-0||Sammy Watkins pass deep left intended for Patrick Mahomes is intercepted by Keanu Neal at ATL-2 and returned for no gain||0||1.89||0.38||-1.51|
|12/27/2020||Chiefs||Falcons||2||11:17||4||1||ATL 46||0-0||Darrel Williams up the middle for 11 yards (tackle by Deion Jones)||11||0.2||3.25||3.05|
|1/3/2021||Chiefs||Chargers||3||4:23||4||1||SDG 30||14-24||Darwin Thompson up the middle for no gain (tackle by Justin Jones and Denzel Perryman)||0||1.52||-0.94||-2.46|
|10/19/2020||Chiefs||Bills||3||1:24||4||1||BUF 13||19-10||Darrel Williams left guard for 13 yards, touchdown||13||2.72||7||4.28|
|11/10/2019||Chiefs||Titans||3||3:25||4||2||OTI 43||19-20||Patrick Mahomes pass complete short left to Damien Williams for 10 yards (tackle by Kevin Byard and Adoree' Jackson)||10||0.4||3.38||2.98|
|12/8/2019||Chiefs||Patriots||3||11:10||4||1||NWE 33||20-7||Spencer Ware up the middle for 2 yards (tackle by Danny Shelton and Kyle Van Noy)||2||1.21||3.51||2.3|
|11/1/2020||Chiefs||Jets||3||7:20||4||1||NYJ 14||21-9||Le'Veon Bell up the middle for no gain (tackle by Henry Anderson)||0||2.66||0.28||-2.38|
|9/22/2019||Chiefs||Ravens||3||8:01||4||1||RAV 41||23-13||Austin Reiter aborted snap, recovered by Patrick Mahomes at BAL-43 (tackle by Kenny Young and Earl Thomas). Patrick Mahomes fumbles (forced by Kenny Young), recovered by Darrel Williams at BAL-43 (tackle by Brandon Williams)||0||0.53||-1.8||-2.33|
|9/28/2020||Chiefs||Ravens||3||3:01||4||1||KAN 49||27-13||Anthony Sherman up the middle for no gain (tackle by Calais Campbell)||0||-0.13||-2.32||-2.19|
|10/6/2019||Chiefs||Colts||4||5:06||4||1||KAN 34||16-10||Damien Williams up the middle for -1 yards (tackle by Justin Houston)||-1||-1.11||-3.38||-2.27|
|11/22/2020||Chiefs||Raiders||4||8:36||4||2||RAI 48||21-24||Patrick Mahomes pass complete short middle to Demarcus Robinson for 9 yards (tackle by Erik Harris)||9||0.07||2.98||2.91|
|10/11/2020||Chiefs||Raiders||4||5:44||4||7||KAN 28||24-33||Patrick Mahomes pass deep middle intended for Travis Kelce is intercepted by Jeff Heath at KC-49 and returned for 47 yards||0||-1.5||-6.74||-5.24|
|10/11/2020||Chiefs||Raiders||4||4:25||4||5||KAN 49||24-40||Patrick Mahomes pass complete short middle to Mecole Hardman for 37 yards (tackle by Erik Harris)||37||-0.13||4.65||4.78|
|9/29/2019||Chiefs||Lions||4||1:55||4||8||KAN 34||27-30||Patrick Mahomes up the middle for 15 yards (tackle by Will Harris)||15||-1.11||2.19||3.3|
|12/13/2020||Chiefs||Dolphins||4||2:31||4||1||MIA 40||30-24||Patrick Mahomes pass complete short right to Tyreek Hill for 22 yards (tackle by Eric Rowe)||22||0.59||4.37||3.78|
|9/28/2020||Chiefs||Ravens||4||0:28||4||1||RAV 28||34-20||Patrick Mahomes pass incomplete short right intended for Nick Keizer (defended by DeShon Elliott)||0||1.72||-0.87||-2.59|
|11/1/2020||Chiefs||Jets||4||2:00||4||10||NYJ 34||35-9||Chad Henne pass incomplete short right intended for Darwin Thompson||0||1.06||-1.27||-2.33|
|9/20/2020||Chiefs||Chargers||5||4:06||4||1||SDG 46||20-20||Darwin Thompson right guard for 2 yards (tackle by Denzel Perryman and Kenneth Murray)||2||0.2||2.65||2.45|
The Chiefs have gone for it fifteen times in the first, second and third quarters over the past two seasons (remember Denver had eight) but the Chiefs have only gone for it 24 times in total, so the majority of their their fourth down attempts have been not in the fourth quarter. Interestingly, all but one of those 4th down attempts that occurred not in the fourth quarter were on fourth and one. The other was on fourth and two. This tells me that Andy Reid has the utmost confidence in his offense’ ability to gain one yard on fourth down, but not two yards. Of those fifteen attempts all but three occurred in plus territory with the those three happening at the KC 34, the KC 47 and the KC 49. Only the attempt from the 34 would be considered “risky”. So Andy Reid has been fairly risk averse like Vic Fangio.
|9/22/2019||Ravens||Chiefs||1||5:08||4||3||KAN 9||0-0||Lamar Jackson left end for 7 yards (tackle by Anthony Hitchens and Charvarius Ward)||7||2.93||6.74||3.81|
|11/25/2019||Ravens||Rams||1||2:06||4||1||RAM 23||7-0||Lamar Jackson left tackle for 5 yards (tackle by Sebastian Joseph)||5||2.08||4.37||2.29|
|11/10/2019||Ravens||Bengals||1||6:40||4||3||CIN 44||7-0||Lamar Jackson pass complete short right to Mark Andrews for 4 yards (tackle by Shawn Williams)||4||0.33||2.92||2.59|
|9/15/2019||Ravens||Cardinals||1||4:39||4||3||CRD 43||7-0||Lamar Jackson pass incomplete deep right intended for Marquise Brown||0||0.4||-1.8||-2.2|
|12/22/2019||Ravens||Browns||1||7:16||4||3||CLE 41||0-0||Lamar Jackson pass incomplete short right intended for Mark Andrews||0||0.53||-1.66||-2.19|
|12/8/2020||Ravens||Cowboys||1||0:32||4||2||DAL 37||3-6||Lamar Jackson up the middle for 37 yards, touchdown||37||0.79||7||6.21|
|9/22/2019||Ravens||Chiefs||2||13:26||4||1||RAV 34||7-6||Gus Edwards up the middle for 5 yards (tackle by Damien Wilson)||5||-1.11||1.53||2.64|
|12/1/2019||Ravens||49ers||2||5:03||4||2||SFO 38||14-14||Lamar Jackson pass complete short left to Hayden Hurst for 2 yards (tackle by Richard Sherman)||2||0.72||3.18||2.46|
|1/3/2021||Ravens||Bengals||2||7:07||4||3||CIN 39||10-0||Lamar Jackson pass complete short right to Marquise Brown for 7 yards (tackle by Akeem Davis-Gaither)||7||0.66||3.45||2.79|
|10/11/2020||Ravens||Bengals||2||7:56||4||6||CIN 46||17-0||Lamar Jackson pass incomplete deep right intended for Mark Andrews||0||0.2||-1.99||-2.19|
|9/22/2019||Ravens||Chiefs||2||10:38||4||2||RAV 47||7-6||Lamar Jackson pass incomplete short right intended for Marquise Brown||0||-0.26||-2.46||-2.2|
|11/15/2020||Ravens||Patriots||3||3:49||4||1||NWE 48||23-10||Gus Edwards left guard for 11 yards (tackle by Jason McCourty and Devin McCourty)||11||0.07||3.12||3.05|
|11/8/2020||Ravens||Colts||3||0:34||4||3||CLT 43||14-10||J.K. Dobbins right end for 4 yards (tackle by Khari Willis)||4||0.4||2.98||2.58|
|10/6/2019||Ravens||Steelers||3||9:10||4||1||PIT 44||17-13||Lamar Jackson aborted snap, recovered by Lamar Jackson at PIT-44||1||0.33||2.72||2.39|
|12/12/2019||Ravens||Jets||3||2:28||4||1||RAV 29||28-7||Lamar Jackson pass complete deep right to Mark Andrews for 36 yards (tackle by Darryl Roberts)||36||-1.44||3.25||4.69|
|11/25/2019||Ravens||Rams||3||2:18||4||4||RAM 33||35-6||Lamar Jackson pass complete short right to Miles Boykin for 15 yards (tackle by Jalen Ramsey)||15||1.18||4.37||3.19|
|11/3/2019||Ravens||Patriots||3||3:33||4||4||NWE 38||24-20||Lamar Jackson pass complete short right to Willie Snead for 7 yards (tackle by Jason McCourty)||7||0.72||3.51||2.79|
|10/20/2019||Ravens||Seahawks||3||1:24||4||2||SEA 8||19-13||Lamar Jackson right tackle for 8 yards, touchdown||8||2.99||7||4.01|
|12/20/2020||Ravens||Jaguars||3||8:08||4||1||RAV 34||26-7||Lamar Jackson up the middle for 2 yards (tackle by Adam Gotsis)||2||-1.11||1.33||2.44|
|11/15/2020||Ravens||Patriots||3||9:45||4||1||RAV 48||20-10||Matt Skura aborted snap, recovered by Mark Ingram at BAL-37||0||-0.19||-3.12||-2.93|
|10/4/2020||Ravens||Washington||4||1:33||4||1||WAS 40||31-17||Gus Edwards left end for 2 yards (tackle by Jonathan Bostic and Shaun Dion Hamilton)||2||0.59||3.05||2.46|
|11/25/2019||Ravens||Rams||4||10:32||4||1||RAV 45||42-6||Gus Edwards up the middle for 1 yard (tackle by Clay Matthews and Aaron Donald)||1||-0.39||1.99||2.38|
|11/1/2020||Ravens||Steelers||4||0:26||4||2||RAV 45||24-28||Lamar Jackson pass complete deep middle to Willie Snead for 32 yards (tackle by Terrell Edmunds)||32||-0.39||4.04||4.43|
|12/14/2020||Ravens||Browns||4||2:00||4||5||CLE 44||40-35||Lamar Jackson pass complete deep right to Marquise Brown for 44 yards, touchdown||44||0.33||7||6.67|
|9/22/2019||Ravens||Chiefs||4||13:21||4||5||KAN 27||13-30||Lamar Jackson pass complete deep right to Seth Roberts for 25 yards (tackle by Kendall Fuller)||25||1.72||6.74||5.02|
|9/29/2019||Ravens||Browns||4||1:09||4||5||RAV 26||18-40||Lamar Jackson pass complete short middle to Hayden Hurst for 29 yards (tackle by Jermaine Whitehead)||29||-1.63||2.59||4.22|
|9/28/2020||Ravens||Chiefs||4||4:55||4||24||KAN 31||20-34||Lamar Jackson pass incomplete deep left intended for Miles Boykin||0||1.32||-1||-2.32|
|9/29/2019||Ravens||Browns||4||8:19||4||3||RAV 31||18-30||Lamar Jackson pass incomplete short left intended for Mark Andrews||0||-1.31||-3.51||-2.2|
|12/1/2019||Ravens||49ers||4||9:41||4||5||SFO 40||17-17||Lamar Jackson pass incomplete short middle intended for Mark Andrews (defended by Fred Warner)||0||0.59||-1.6||-2.19|
|11/15/2020||Ravens||Patriots||4||0:08||4||6||RAV 21||17-23||Lamar Jackson pass incomplete short right intended for J.K. Dobbins||0||-1.96||-4.17||-2.21|
|12/1/2019||Ravens||49ers||4||4:39||4||1||RAV 44||17-17||Lamar Jackson right guard for 3 yards (tackle by Jimmie Ward and Sheldon Day)||3||-0.46||2.06||2.52|
|9/20/2020||Ravens||Texans||4||6:32||4||1||RAV 36||30-16||Lamar Jackson up the middle for 2 yards (tackle by Brennan Scarlett and Benardrick McKinney)||2||-0.98||1.47||2.45|
|11/1/2020||Ravens||Steelers||4||2:00||4||3||PIT 8||24-28||Lamar Jackson up the middle for 2 yards (tackle by Isaiah Buggs and Minkah Fitzpatrick). Lamar Jackson fumbles (forced by Minkah Fitzpatrick), recovered by Robert Spillane at PIT-6||2||2.98||0.38||-2.6|
|9/20/2020||Ravens||Texans||4||12:04||4||1||HTX 30||29-13||Mark Ingram left end for 30 yards, touchdown||30||1.52||7||5.48|
|9/8/2019||Ravens||Dolphins||4||9:30||4||3||MIA 3||58-10||Robert Griffin pass complete short left to Mark Andrews for 3 yards, touchdown||3||3.04||7||3.96|
|12/29/2019||Ravens||Steelers||4||0:30||4||6||PIT 45||28-10||Robert Griffin pass short middle (defended by Cameron Heyward) intended for Willie Snead is intercepted by Joe Haden at PIT-40 and returned for no gain||0||0.27||-1.6||-1.87|
|12/2/2020||Ravens||Steelers||4||6:03||4||2||RAV 22||19-7||Trace McSorley right end for 6 yards (tackle by Minkah Fitzpatrick)||6||-1.9||0.81||2.71|
|12/20/2020||Ravens||Jaguars||4||4:02||4||20||JAX 34||40-7||Tyler Huntley pass incomplete deep middle intended for Eric Tomlinson||0||1.06||-1.2||-2.26|
|1/3/2021||Ravens||Bengals||4||9:19||4||1||CIN 24||38-3||Tyler Huntley up the middle for no gain (tackle by Sam Hubbard)||0||2.02||-0.54||-2.56|
The Ravens have gone for it a staggering 20 times in the first, second, and third quarter, but unlike the Chiefs some of these attempts were on longer situations and/or deeper in their own territory. Of those twenty attempts that didn’t happen in the fourth quarter, only seven were on fourth and one. The other thirteen occurred on two, three, four and six needed to gain. But all of the attempts where two or more yards were needed occurred in plus territory or at midfield. The most interesting of these thirteen is the decision to go for it on fourth and six from the CIN 46 leading 17-0 with 7:56 to play in the second quarter last season. Most head coaches in that situation are going to punt. Your team is up by three scores and you need to gain six yards for the first down.
|11/15/2020||Eagles||Giants||1||9:23||4||1||PHI 47||0-7||Carson Wentz pass complete short right to Jalen Reagor for 10 yards (tackle by Logan Ryan)||10||-0.26||2.72||2.98|
|12/13/2020||Eagles||Saints||1||8:16||4||1||NOR 45||0-0||Jalen Hurts up the middle for 3 yards (tackle by Marcus Williams)||3||0.27||2.79||2.52|
|10/22/2020||Eagles||Giants||1||11:16||4||1||NYG 31||0-0||Carson Wentz left end for 3 yards (tackle by James Bradberry)||3||1.41||3.71||2.3|
|12/9/2019||Eagles||Giants||1||7:51||4||1||PHI 43||0-0||Carson Wentz up the middle for no gain (tackle by Dalvin Tomlinson). Carson Wentz fumbles (forced by Dalvin Tomlinson), recovered by David Mayo at PHI-43||0||-0.52||-2.72||-2.2|
|11/3/2019||Eagles||Bears||1||10:52||4||2||CHI 40||0-0||Carson Wentz pass complete short middle to Zach Ertz for 15 yards (tackle by Eddie Jackson)||15||0.59||3.91||3.32|
|12/13/2020||Eagles||Saints||1||4:55||4||2||NOR 34||0-0||Miles Sanders left guard for -3 yards (tackle by Malcolm Jenkins)||-3||1.1||-1.4||-2.5|
|10/6/2019||Eagles||Jets||1||0:35||4||5||NYJ 36||14-0||Carson Wentz pass incomplete short middle intended for Alshon Jeffery||0||0.88||-1.33||-2.21|
|12/29/2019||Eagles||Giants||1||10:22||4||7||NYG 38||0-0||Carson Wentz pass incomplete short right intended for Dallas Goedert||0||0.72||-1.53||-2.25|
|12/29/2019||Eagles||Giants||2||2:41||4||1||NYG 26||3-Mar||Carson Wentz up the middle for 2 yards (tackle by Leonard Williams and Markus Golden)||2||1.89||3.97||2.08|
|11/1/2020||Eagles||Cowboys||2||0:32||4||1||DAL 44||6-Jul||Carson Wentz pass incomplete short right intended for Travis Fulgham||0||0.33||-1.93||-2.26|
|10/18/2020||Eagles||Ravens||2||1:03||4||1||RAV 20||0-17||Carson Wentz up the middle for no gain (tackle by Calais Campbell and Matt Judon)||0||2.27||-0.28||-2.55|
|12/22/2019||Eagles||Cowboys||2||9:25||4||1||DAL 33||3-Oct||Carson Wentz pass incomplete short right intended for Joshua Perkins||0||1.21||-1.14||-2.35|
|12/13/2020||Eagles||Saints||2||13:30||4||2||NOR 15||Jun-00||Jalen Hurts pass complete short left to Alshon Jeffery for 15 yards, touchdown, touchdown. Penalty on Kwon Alexander: Roughing the Passer, 15 yards||15||2.57||7||4.43|
|10/13/2019||Eagles||Vikings||2||9:43||4||2||MIN 49||17-Mar||Carson Wentz pass incomplete short right intended for Alshon Jeffery||0||0||-2.19||-2.19|
|9/8/2019||Eagles||Washington||2||10:52||4||2||WAS 29||0-10||Carson Wentz pass incomplete short left intended for Alshon Jeffery (defended by Da'Ron Payne)||0||1.6||-0.87||-2.47|
|12/20/2020||Eagles||Cardinals||2||6:25||4||3||CRD 4||13-19||Jalen Hurts pass complete short left to Greg Ward for 4 yards, touchdown. Penalty on Patrick Peterson: Defensive Holding (Declined)||4||3.03||7||3.97|
|11/1/2020||Eagles||Cowboys||2||11:38||4||3||DAL 44||3-Jul||Carson Wentz sacked by Leighton Vander Esch for -10 yards. Carson Wentz fumbles (forced by Leighton Vander Esch), recovered by Dorance Armstrong at PHI-46||-10||0.33||-2.52||-2.85|
|9/8/2019||Eagles||Washington||3||13:03||4||1||PHI 34||20-Jul||Carson Wentz up the middle for 2 yards (tackle by Matthew Ioannidis)||2||-1.11||1.33||2.44|
|10/4/2020||Eagles||49ers||3||4:21||4||1||SFO 31||14-Aug||Carson Wentz up the middle for 1 yard (tackle by Javon Kinlaw)||1||1.41||3.58||2.17|
|12/13/2020||Eagles||Saints||3||3:11||4||1||NOR 40||17-7||Jalen Hurts up the middle for no gain (tackle by Kwon Alexander and Marcus Williams)||0||0.59||-1.6||-2.19|
|10/6/2019||Eagles||Jets||3||12:14||4||1||NYJ 40||21-0||Carson Wentz up the middle for no gain (tackle by Leonard Williams)||0||0.59||-1.6||-2.19|
|9/15/2019||Eagles||Falcons||3||5:03||4||4||ATL 4||17-Dec||Carson Wentz pass complete short middle to Nelson Agholor for 4 yards, touchdown||4||3.03||7||3.97|
|1/3/2021||Eagles||Washington||3||2:01||4||4||WAS 4||14-17||Jalen Hurts pass incomplete short left intended for Quez Watkins||0||3.03||0.38||-2.65|
|9/13/2020||Eagles||Washington||3||1:18||4||4||WAS 45||17-14||Carson Wentz sacked by Jonathan Bostic for -9 yards||-9||0.27||-2.52||-2.79|
|12/20/2020||Eagles||Cardinals||3||2:22||4||6||CRD 49||20-26||Jalen Hurts up the middle for 17 yards (tackle by Patrick Peterson)||17||0||3.45||3.45|
|12/9/2019||Eagles||Giants||4||4:54||4||1||PHI 29||17-Oct||Carson Wentz up the middle for 2 yards (tackle by Julian Love)||2||-1.44||1||2.44|
|10/27/2019||Eagles||Bills||4||2:43||4||1||BUF 21||31-13||Boston Scott left guard for -1 yards (tackle by Tremaine Edmunds and Kevin Johnson)||-1||2.21||-0.41||-2.62|
|10/20/2019||Eagles||Cowboys||4||1:57||4||2||PHI 34||Oct-37||Boston Scott left tackle for 14 yards (tackle by Byron Jones and Darian Thompson). Boston Scott fumbles (forced by Byron Jones), recovered by Boston Scott at PHI-48||14||-1.11||2.13||3.24|
|11/30/2020||Eagles||Seahawks||4||13:33||4||2||PHI 48||17-Sep||Carson Wentz pass incomplete short left intended for Richard Rodgers (defended by K.J. Wright)||0||-0.19||-2.39||-2.2|
|11/24/2019||Eagles||Seahawks||4||7:54||4||2||SEA 23||17-Mar||Carson Wentz pass incomplete short right intended for JJ Arcega-Whiteside (defended by Shaquill Griffin)||0||2.05||-0.54||-2.59|
|9/20/2020||Eagles||Rams||4||7:53||4||2||RAM 36||19-31||Carson Wentz pass incomplete short middle intended for Dallas Goedert (defended by John Johnson)||0||0.89||-1.33||-2.22|
|10/22/2020||Eagles||Giants||4||14:11||4||3||NYG 3||14-Oct||Carson Wentz pass incomplete short right intended for Hakeem Butler (defended by Logan Ryan)||0||3.04||0.38||-2.66|
|9/13/2020||Eagles||Washington||4||4:35||4||3||PHI 42||17-24||Carson Wentz pass incomplete short middle intended for Zach Ertz||0||-0.59||-2.79||-2.2|
|1/3/2021||Eagles||Washington||4||0:38||4||4||PHI 14||14-20||Nate Sudfeld up the middle for 12 yards (tackle by Jonathan Bostic and Cole Holcomb)||12||-2.47||0.67||3.14|
|10/4/2020||Eagles||49ers||4||8:36||4||4||SFO 36||14-Nov||Carson Wentz pass complete short right to John Hightower for 9 yards (tackle by Jason Verrett)||9||0.89||3.78||2.89|
|11/30/2020||Eagles||Seahawks||4||8:40||4||4||SEA 15||20-Sep||Carson Wentz pass deep right intended for Dallas Goedert is intercepted by Quandre Diggs at SEA-0 and returned for no gain||0||2.52||-0.28||-2.8|
|10/20/2019||Eagles||Cowboys||4||6:52||4||4||DAL 19||Oct-37||Carson Wentz pass incomplete short middle intended for Mack Hollins (defended by Sean Lee)||0||2.26||-0.15||-2.41|
|10/18/2020||Eagles||Ravens||4||9:25||4||5||PHI 30||14-27||Carson Wentz pass incomplete short right intended for Travis Fulgham||0||-1.37||-3.58||-2.21|
|11/22/2020||Eagles||Browns||4||3:13||4||6||PHI 29||22-Oct||Carson Wentz pass complete short right to Jalen Reagor for 11 yards (tackle by Terrance Mitchell)||11||-1.44||1.6||3.04|
|12/27/2020||Eagles||Cowboys||4||1:13||4||6||PHI 43||17-37||Jalen Hurts up the middle for 8 yards (tackle by Anthony Brown)||8||-0.52||2.32||2.84|
|12/20/2020||Eagles||Cardinals||4||0:56||4||7||PHI 25||26-33||Jalen Hurts pass complete short left to Travis Fulgham for 12 yards (tackle by Dre Kirkpatrick)||12||-1.7||1.4||3.1|
|9/15/2019||Eagles||Falcons||4||0:38||4||8||ATL 16||20-24||Carson Wentz pass complete short left to Zach Ertz for 7 yards (tackle by Isaiah Oliver and Keanu Neal)||7||2.38||0.38||-2|
|9/22/2019||Eagles||Lions||4||2:25||4||8||PHI 22||24-27||Carson Wentz up the middle for 6 yards (tackle by Devon Kennard)||6||-1.9||-3.71||-1.81|
|11/1/2020||Eagles||Cowboys||4||2:00||4||8||DAL 32||23-9||Carson Wentz pass incomplete deep right intended for Jalen Reagor (defended by Anthony Brown)||0||1.24||-1.07||-2.31|
|10/18/2020||Eagles||Ravens||4||3:55||4||9||RAV 18||20-30||Carson Wentz pass complete deep middle to Travis Fulgham for 18 yards, touchdown||18||2.25||7||4.75|
|11/17/2019||Eagles||Patriots||4||1:05||4||10||NWE 26||17-Oct||Carson Wentz pass incomplete deep left intended for Nelson Agholor||0||1.74||-0.67||-2.41|
|11/15/2020||Eagles||Giants||4||4:56||4||10||NYG 36||17-24||Carson Wentz pass incomplete short right intended for Jalen Reagor (defended by James Bradberry)||0||0.88||-1.33||-2.21|
|11/22/2020||Eagles||Browns||4||0:43||4||13||CLE 22||22-Oct||Carson Wentz pass complete short left to Jalen Reagor for 18 yards (tackle by Terrance Mitchell)||18||1.99||6.28||4.29|
|9/15/2019||Eagles||Falcons||4||1:29||4||14||PHI 39||20-24||Carson Wentz pass complete deep left to Nelson Agholor for 43 yards (tackle by Ricardo Allen)||43||-0.78||4.37||5.15|
|10/27/2019||Eagles||Bills||4||0:34||4||14||BUF 32||31-13||Carson Wentz kneels for -2 yards||-2||1.24||-1.2||-2.44|
|10/13/2019||Eagles||Vikings||4||6:46||4||15||PHI 33||20-38||Carson Wentz pass complete deep middle to Zach Ertz for 17 yards (tackle by Trae Waynes)||17||-1.18||2.26||3.44|
|12/27/2020||Eagles||Cowboys||4||14:09||4||15||DAL 33||17-30||Jalen Hurts pass complete short right to Zach Ertz for 8 yards (tackle by Chidobe Awuzie)||8||1.15||-0.61||-1.76|
|9/22/2019||Eagles||Lions||4||0:49||4||15||PHI 45||24-27||Carson Wentz pass incomplete deep middle intended for JJ Arcega-Whiteside||0||-0.39||-2.59||-2.2|
|11/15/2020||Eagles||Giants||4||2:10||4||16||PHI 31||17-27||Carson Wentz pass complete short right to Boston Scott for 11 yards (tackle by Jabrill Peppers)||11||-1.31||-2.79||-1.48|
|12/6/2020||Eagles||Packers||4||7:59||4||18||GNB 32||23-Sep||Jalen Hurts pass complete deep right to Greg Ward for 32 yards, touchdown||32||1.24||7||5.76|
|10/11/2020||Eagles||Steelers||4||2:18||4||20||PHI 15||29-38||Carson Wentz pass deep middle intended for John Hightower is intercepted by Steven Nelson at PIT-25 and returned for no gain||0||-2.44||-0.61||1.83|
|12/20/2020||Eagles||Cardinals||4||1:55||4||21||CRD 22||26-33||Jalen Hurts pass incomplete deep middle intended for Dallas Goedert (defended by Chris Banjo)||0||1.99||-0.41||-2.4|
|11/30/2020||Eagles||Seahawks||4||2:21||4||31||PHI 25||20-Sep||Carson Wentz pass incomplete short left intended for Jalen Reagor||0||-1.7||-3.97||-2.27|
The Eagles have gone for it the most over the past two years, but the have not been very successful when they have don so. Similar to the Chiefs and the Ravens, they do have a good number of attempts that happened in the first, second, and third quarters of the their games (25 of 58). Thirteen of those 25 happened when they needed more than one yard. So the Eagles were similar to Ravens in that they seemed to be less risk averse. Six of those thirteen happened when they needed four or more yards for a first down. All six of those happened in plus territory with two of them coming on 4th and goal from the four. Doug Pederson appears to have taken some risks which may be one reason he is no longer the head coach of the Eagles despite leading them to a Super Bowl victory in 2017.
|10/11/2020||Browns||Colts||1||0:12||4||1||CLT 5||7-Mar||Baker Mayfield pass complete short right to Odell Beckham for 3 yards (tackle by Anthony Walker)||3||3.03||6.74||3.71|
|11/1/2020||Browns||Raiders||1||1:44||4||1||RAI 45||0-0||Baker Mayfield up the middle for 2 yards (tackle by Maliek Collins)||2||0.27||2.72||2.45|
|11/22/2020||Browns||Eagles||1||1:11||4||1||PHI 1||0-0||Kareem Hunt left guard for no gain (tackle by Jalen Mills and Javon Hargrave)||0||3.55||0.38||-3.17|
|11/10/2019||Browns||Bills||1||3:18||4||1||BUF 1||Jun-00||Nick Chubb right tackle for -2 yards (tackle by Corey Liuget and Matt Milano)||-2||3.55||0.38||-3.17|
|11/10/2019||Browns||Bills||1||7:44||4||2||BUF 41||Jun-00||Baker Mayfield pass complete short right to Demetrius Harris for 16 yards (tackle by Levi Wallace)||16||0.53||3.91||3.38|
|12/20/2020||Browns||Giants||1||7:08||4||2||NYG 43||0-0||Baker Mayfield pass incomplete short left intended for Austin Hooper (defended by Dexter Lawrence)||0||0.4||-1.8||-2.2|
|10/13/2019||Browns||Seahawks||1||6:04||4||7||SEA 38||6-Jul||Baker Mayfield pass complete deep right to Jarvis Landry for 27 yards (tackle by Tedric Thompson)||27||0.72||4.84||4.12|
|9/29/2019||Browns||Ravens||2||0:30||4||1||RAV 8||7-Jul||Baker Mayfield up the middle for 1 yard (tackle by Michael Pierce)||1||2.99||5.6||2.61|
|11/15/2020||Browns||Texans||2||0:32||4||4||HTX 37||Mar-00||Baker Mayfield pass incomplete deep right intended for Jarvis Landry||0||0.79||-1.4||-2.19|
|11/22/2020||Browns||Eagles||2||0:04||4||5||CLE 35||Jul-00||Baker Mayfield pass incomplete short right||0||-1.04||1.27||2.31|
|9/27/2020||Browns||Washington||2||12:53||4||7||WAS 37||0-7||Baker Mayfield pass complete short right to Austin Hooper for 8 yards (tackle by Jimmy Moreland)||8||0.79||3.64||2.85|
|12/1/2019||Browns||Steelers||2||0:02||4||10||CLE 36||10-Oct||Garrett Gilbert pass incomplete deep right||0||-0.98||1.33||2.31|
|1/3/2021||Browns||Steelers||2||0:05||4||16||CLE 29||6-Oct||Baker Mayfield pass incomplete deep right||0||-1.44||0.87||2.31|
|11/29/2020||Browns||Jaguars||3||8:56||4||1||JAX 44||17-19||Baker Mayfield pass complete short left to KhaDarel Hodge for 10 yards||10||0.33||3.31||2.98|
|12/1/2019||Browns||Steelers||3||6:08||4||1||PIT 40||17-Oct||Nick Chubb up the middle for 2 yards (tackle by Bud Dupree and Terrell Edmunds)||2||0.59||3.05||2.46|
|11/3/2019||Browns||Broncos||3||5:23||4||1||DEN 5||17-Dec||Baker Mayfield right guard for no gain (tackle by Von Miller and Todd Davis)||0||3.03||0.38||-2.65|
|10/18/2020||Browns||Steelers||3||5:59||4||1||CLE 29||24-Jul||Kareem Hunt up the middle for -1 yards (tackle by Cameron Heyward and T.J. Watt)||-1||-1.44||-3.71||-2.27|
|9/17/2020||Browns||Bengals||3||10:15||4||2||CIN 44||21-13||Baker Mayfield pass complete short left to Jarvis Landry for 21 yards (tackle by Jessie Bates)||21||0.33||4.04||3.71|
|9/17/2020||Browns||Bengals||3||8:07||4||2||CIN 2||21-13||Nick Chubb right guard for 1 yard (tackle by D.J. Reader and Freedom Akinmoladun)||1||3.25||0.38||-2.87|
|12/14/2020||Browns||Ravens||3||0:32||4||4||CLE 46||20-34||Baker Mayfield pass complete short middle to Jarvis Landry for 12 yards (tackle by Chuck Clark)||12||-0.32||2.79||3.11|
|9/13/2020||Browns||Ravens||3||3:08||4||4||RAV 28||Jun-31||Baker Mayfield sacked by Tyus Bowser for -14 yards||-14||1.65||-1.73||-3.38|
|12/6/2020||Browns||Titans||4||0:57||4||1||OTI 36||41-28||Baker Mayfield up the middle for 2 yards (tackle by Jack Crawford). Baker Mayfield fumbles (forced by Jack Crawford), recovered by Kenny Vaccaro at TEN-34 and returned for 53 yards (tackle by Kareem Hunt)||2||0.89||-4.71||-5.6|
|11/1/2020||Browns||Raiders||4||2:28||4||1||RAI 16||16-Jun||Baker Mayfield up the middle for 2 yards (tackle by Carl Nassib)||2||2.53||4.65||2.12|
|12/27/2020||Browns||Jets||4||1:25||4||1||NYJ 16||16-23||Baker Mayfield left guard for no gain (tackle by Tarell Basham). Baker Mayfield fumbles (forced by Tarell Basham), recovered by Kareem Hunt at NYJ-16||0||2.53||0.14||-2.39|
|11/29/2020||Browns||Jaguars||4||5:42||4||1||JAX 22||27-19||Kareem Hunt up the middle for no gain (tackle by Adam Gotsis)||0||2.14||-0.41||-2.55|
|10/13/2019||Browns||Seahawks||4||10:43||4||1||SEA 1||20-25||Nick Chubb right guard for -1 yards (tackle by Quinton Jefferson and Poona Ford)||-1||3.55||0.38||-3.17|
|10/18/2020||Browns||Steelers||4||6:12||4||1||PIT 47||Jul-38||D'Ernest Johnson right tackle for -2 yards (tackle by Vince Williams and Tyson Alualu)||-2||0.13||-2.19||-2.32|
|9/8/2019||Browns||Titans||4||1:21||4||2||CLE 33||13-43||Nick Chubb right guard for 1 yard (tackle by Wesley Woodyard)||1||-1.18||-3.31||-2.13|
|10/18/2020||Browns||Steelers||4||13:46||4||2||PIT 45||31-Jul||Case Keenum pass incomplete short left intended for Kareem Hunt||0||0.27||-1.93||-2.2|
|10/13/2019||Browns||Seahawks||4||14:24||4||3||SEA 23||20-25||Baker Mayfield pass complete short left to Dontrell Hilliard for 3 yards (tackle by K.J. Wright)||3||2.03||4.24||2.21|
|12/14/2020||Browns||Ravens||4||13:42||4||4||RAV 21||26-34||Baker Mayfield pass complete deep right to Rashard Higgins for 21 yards, touchdown||21||2.13||7||4.87|
|9/22/2019||Browns||Rams||4||0:33||4||4||RAM 4||13-20||Baker Mayfield pass short right intended for Damion Ratley is intercepted by John Johnson at LA-0 and returned for no gain||0||3.03||-0.28||-3.31|
|11/3/2019||Browns||Broncos||4||3:23||4||4||DEN 28||19-24||Baker Mayfield pass incomplete short middle intended for Jarvis Landry (defended by Kareem Jackson) (defended by Davontae Harris)||0||1.65||-0.81||-2.46|
|12/15/2019||Browns||Cardinals||4||1:53||4||6||CRD 12||17-38||Baker Mayfield pass complete short middle to Odell Beckham for 11 yards (tackle by Jordan Hicks)||11||2.66||6.97||4.31|
|9/13/2020||Browns||Ravens||4||10:11||4||6||RAV 48||Jun-38||Baker Mayfield pass incomplete deep right intended for Odell Beckham||0||0.07||-2.13||-2.2|
|1/3/2021||Browns||Steelers||4||3:41||4||7||PIT 35||24-16||Baker Mayfield pass incomplete short right intended for Rashard Higgins||0||0.97||-1.27||-2.24|
|9/22/2019||Browns||Rams||4||9:19||4||9||RAM 40||13-17||Nick Chubb right tackle for 2 yards (tackle by Eric Weddle)||2||0.59||-1.47||-2.06|
|9/8/2019||Browns||Titans||4||5:41||4||13||OTI 48||13-36||Baker Mayfield pass incomplete short left intended for Odell Beckham||0||0.07||-2.13||-2.2|
|10/27/2019||Browns||Patriots||4||6:17||4||16||CLE 19||27-Oct||Baker Mayfield sacked by and Adam Butler for -5 yards||-5||-2.14||-4.65||-2.51|
|12/29/2019||Browns||Bengals||4||7:23||4||20||CIN 20||22-30||Baker Mayfield pass complete deep right to Odell Beckham for 20 yards, touchdown||20||2.12||7||4.88|
The Browns had twenty-one of their forty fourth down attempts happen in the first, second or third quarter with nine of those happening on fourth and one. The majority of their second quarter fourth down attempts were near the end of the half with three coming on passing attempts from their own territory with five seconds or fewer left on the clock.
Almost all of the Browns attempts came in plus territory or at midfield (other than the near half-time plays). The one exception was a run on 4th and one from their own 29 against the Steelers in 2020 with 5:59 left to play in the third and a 24-7 lead. It tends to be easier to take risks when you have a three score lead.
Looking at the whole league in terms of fourth down attempts in the first three quarters of the game, Denver’s eight are the second fewest in the league over the last two seasons. Compare that to the Cardinals who have had twenty-seven attempts in the first three quarters of the came.
From my analysis, Vic Fangio has been the least aggressive had coach in the NFL in terms of going for it on fourth down. What do you think?
Why do you think Vic Fangio has been so conservative and risk averse on fourth down decisions?
This poll is closed
He trusts the defense
He doesn’t trust the offense
He was trained to be that way by his mentors.
He was told to play it safe.
All of the above