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Is there any statistical evidence to suggest Drew Lock can become the Broncos’ franchise quarterback in 2021?

On today’s episode of Cover2Broncos I dug into the numbers with Pro Football Focus’ Tej Seth.

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One of my favorite parts of every offseason is the chance to take a small step back from the Broncos in an effort to try and improve my understanding of football on a macro level. So when I first stumbled upon Tej Seth’s work on Twitter I was fascinated. I can say with some confidence there isn’t any one person I’ve learned from more over the last three months.

A student at the University of Michigan, Seth works as a research and development intern for Pro Football Focus. As part of this role he’s works on new metrics for analyzing the game that NFL teams are implementing. He’s also written a number of enlightening articles so far, including :

One of my favorite parts about hosting Cover2Broncos is the chance to speak with smart guests and pick their brains on my favorite team, and I was fortunate enough to get a chance to chat with Seth. What follows are just a few of the things we dug into:

  • What statistical impact did Von Miller and Courtland Sutton’s injuries have on 2020?
  • How much can a player at any given position impact win totals?
  • Does the Broncos’ poor injury luck last season mean they should be healthier in ‘21?
  • When injuries become more likely during the season.
  • In what ways is the Fangio defense blazing a path in the NFL?
  • Light boxes and their impact on run defense.
  • Will dime personnel make a defense more susceptible to opposing rushing attacks?
  • What makes the Broncos’ pass defense so different than the norm?
  • Is there any statistical evidence to suggest Drew Lock can become “the guy” under center?
  • How likely is a third year jump for Lock?
  • Are there any commonalities among the passers who experience a third year breakout?
  • One sneaky stat that could be Lock’s saving grace going forward.
  • Are sacks a QB stat?
  • Are pressures a QB stat?
  • What does Teddy Bridgewater bring to the table as a potential starter?
  • Evaluating the four big narratives about Bridgewater.
  • Lock vs. Bridgewater.
  • Is this Broncos roster good enough to win without a franchise quarterback?
  • Did George Paton err in selecting Patrick Surtain II over Justin Fields?
  • Were there any other quarterback moves the Broncos should have considered?
  • What looks like the realistic range of outcomes for this Broncos’ roster?

I really can’t tell you how fun it was to chat with Seth and I hope you take the opportunity to listen in. Analytics can get a bit intimidating for those of us who don’t work in data science, and he did an exceptional job making it accessible for me, even as I peppered him with follow up questions.

Let’s go Broncos.