Football Outsiders has released their DVOA predictions for the 2021 NFL season. The numbers provided point to good news for the Denver Broncos. The predictions pointed to a playoff appearance for the Broncos in 2021, something that should provide some encouragement for Broncos fans.
If you are unfamiliar with what DVOA is, I’ll explain. DVOA measures a team’s efficiency by comparing success on every single play to a league average based on situation and opponent. Essentially, it’s designed to measure success relative to league average.
Football Outsiders DVOA predictions gave Denver the 14th-best Total DVOA, with the 16th-ranked offense, the 10th-ranked defense, and 26th ranked special-teams. They had the Broncos as a playoff team, joining Kansas City, Baltimore, Buffalo, Tennessee, New England, and Miami out of the AFC.
The Broncos’ mean win total was about 9.3, with the 5th seed as the most likely outcome. Their projections give the Broncos a 12.5% chance to appear in the AFC title game, a 5.7% chance to win the AFC Championship, and a 2.3% chance to win the Super Bowl.
I think they’re pretty spot-on about the team overall. We know the offense is hovering around league-average (something Denver hasn’t been recently). I feel like they are underrating the Denver defense by only placing it tenth, but when you play Patrick Mahomes and Justin Herbert twice each a season, defensive volatility is going to strike.
Interestingly enough, Denver’s DVOA outlook improved over 2.5% points because they named Teddy Bridgewater the starting quarterback. A hopeful sign for Broncos fans.
Noah Fant was dealing with a knee injury, while coach Vic Fangio said Chubb’s ankle injury is “slow to come around”.
Bridgewater’s veteran presence and accuracy should help Denver against a tough Giants’ defense.
Teddy Bridgewater has his sights set on proving he’s a franchise quarterback.
Kenny Golladay admitted the Giants’ offense may be slow to start due to the numerous offseason injuries throughout the team.
ESPN tabs 2020 first-round pick Jerry Jeudy as the Broncos’ breakout star this year, citing his route running and work ethic.
Nate Hobbs’s rapid ascension from fifth-round pick to starting nickel corner in Vegas has Jon Gruden excited
With his first real training camp in three years, running back Melvin Gordon is aiming to excel early for the Broncos.