New DVOA projection has Broncos making playoffs; top-10 defense

Football Outsiders has released their DVOA predictions for the 2021 NFL season. The numbers provided point to good news for the Denver Broncos. The predictions pointed to a playoff appearance for the Broncos in 2021, something that should provide some encouragement for Broncos fans.

If you are unfamiliar with what DVOA is, I’ll explain. DVOA measures a team’s efficiency by comparing success on every single play to a league average based on situation and opponent. Essentially, it’s designed to measure success relative to league average.

Football Outsiders DVOA predictions gave Denver the 14th-best Total DVOA, with the 16th-ranked offense, the 10th-ranked defense, and 26th ranked special-teams. They had the Broncos as a playoff team, joining Kansas City, Baltimore, Buffalo, Tennessee, New England, and Miami out of the AFC.

The Broncos’ mean win total was about 9.3, with the 5th seed as the most likely outcome. Their projections give the Broncos a 12.5% chance to appear in the AFC title game, a 5.7% chance to win the AFC Championship, and a 2.3% chance to win the Super Bowl.

I think they’re pretty spot-on about the team overall. We know the offense is hovering around league-average (something Denver hasn’t been recently). I feel like they are underrating the Denver defense by only placing it tenth, but when you play Patrick Mahomes and Justin Herbert twice each a season, defensive volatility is going to strike.

Interestingly enough, Denver’s DVOA outlook improved over 2.5% points because they named Teddy Bridgewater the starting quarterback. A hopeful sign for Broncos fans.

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